A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Combines normalizing flows and quasi-Monte Carlo for improved numerical integration.
A new method combines AIS and SMCI for efficient evaluation of Ising models.
New insights into variational inference using Monte Carlo estimates.
AFT combines AIS, SMC, and NFs for better Monte Carlo estimates.
We present a new method for conducting Monte Carlo inference in graphical models which combines explicit search with generalized importance sampling. The idea is to reduce the variance of importance sampling by searching for significant points in the target distribution. We prove that it is possible to introduce search…
Generative models map simple samples to complex target samples.
CRAFT improves on existing methods for sampling complex distributions.
We consider the problem of simulating loss probabilities and conditional excesses for linear asset portfolios under the t-copula model. Although in the literature on market risk management there are papers proposing efficient variance reduction methods for Monte Carlo simulation of portfolio market risk, there is no pa…
Paper improves VAEs using Monte Carlo methods.
This survey explores various optimality concepts in importance sampling.
Importance weighting is a general way to adjust Monte Carlo integration to account for draws from the wrong distribution, but the resulting estimate can be highly variable when the importance ratios have a heavy right tail. This routinely occurs when there are aspects of the target distribution that are not well captur…
Paper develops Monte-Carlo estimators for CoVaR, a key risk measure.
This paper reviews various sampling methods from statistics and machine learning.
We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to high dimensionality, explicit comparison with standard Markov chain Monte Carlo me…
Adaptive Monte Carlo methods are recent variance reduction techniques. In this work, we propose a mathematical setting which greatly relaxes the assumptions needed by for the adaptive importance sampling techniques presented by Vazquez-Abad and Dufresne, Fu and Su, and Arouna. We establish the convergence and asymptoti…
A recently introduced Importance Sampling strategy based on a least squares optimization is applied to the Monte Carlo simulation of Libor Market Models. Such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) allows the automatic optimization of the sampling distribution within a trial class by means of a quick presimulation al…
Adaptive sampling method improves efficiency in complex target distributions.
Paper proposes efficient method for estimating risk measures in complex models.
HAIS improves importance sampling in high dimensions using HMC.
Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications in aerospace engineering, the calculation of expected values of such functions (e…
Adaptive Monte Carlo schemes developed over the last years usually seek to ensure ergodicity of the sampling process in line with MCMC tradition. This poses constraints on what is possible in terms of adaptation. In the general case ergodicity can only be guaranteed if adaptation is diminished at a certain rate. Import…
Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use simpler proposal probability densities to draw candidate samples. The performan…
We describe a simple Importance Sampling strategy for Monte Carlo simulations based on a least squares optimization procedure. With several numerical examples, we show that such Least Squares Importance Sampling (LSIS) provides efficiency gains comparable to the state of the art techniques, when the latter are known to…
In this work, we propose a smart idea to couple importance sampling and Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). We advocate a per level approach with as many importance sampling parameters as the number of levels, which enables us to compute the different levels independently. The search for parameters is carried out using samp…
We explore the possibilities of importance sampling in the Monte Carlo pricing of a structured credit derivative referred to as Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO). Modeling a CDO contract is challenging, since it depends on a pool of (typically about 100) assets, Monte Carlo simulations are often the only feasible ap…
Corrects errors in ILA for Bayesian inference in LGMs.
Effective dimensionality reduction improves accuracy and reduces costs in estimating option Greeks.
Optimizes K inner simulations for least-square Monte Carlo to reduce computational cost.
Paper proposes an ensemble-based AIS for multimodal sampling.
New MC simulation methods use classifiers to estimate pdf ratios without explicit pdfs.
A new method reduces Monte Carlo variance for financial payoffs.
DAIS improves AIS by resampling, avoiding gradient issues.
Pricing options is an important problem in financial engineering. In many scenarios of practical interest, financial option prices associated to an underlying asset reduces to computing an expectation w.r.t.~a diffusion process. In general, these expectations cannot be calculated analytically, and one way to approximat…
The paper proposes a new method to approximate Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao flows using Monte Carlo techniques.
Low bit-width integer weights and activations are very important for efficient inference, especially with respect to lower power consumption. We propose Monte Carlo methods to quantize the weights and activations of pre-trained neural networks without any re-training. By performing importance sampling we obtain quantiz…
The standard Kernel Quadrature method for numerical integration with random point sets (also called Bayesian Monte Carlo) is known to converge in root mean square error at a rate determined by the ratio , where and encode the smoothness and dimension of the integrand. However, an empirical investigation re…
An importance sampling approach for sampling copula models is introduced. We propose two algorithms that improve Monte Carlo estimators when the functional of interest depends mainly on the behaviour of the underlying random vector when at least one of the components is large. Such problems often arise from dependence …
New algorithms improve MCMC efficiency for complex distributions.
Paper proposes a new method for sampling from complex distributions.
Bayesian methods and their implementations by means of sophisticated Monte Carlo techniques have become very popular in signal processing over the last years. Importance Sampling (IS) is a well-known Monte Carlo technique that approximates integrals involving a posterior distribution by means of weighted samples. In th…
GPU-accelerated particle methods outperform neural samplers in LFT benchmarks.
Multi-sample, importance-weighted variational autoencoders (IWAE) give tighter bounds and more accurate uncertainty estimates than variational autoencoders (VAE) trained with a standard single-sample objective. However, IWAEs scale poorly: as the latent dimensionality grows, they require exponentially many samples to r…
Combines control variates and adaptive importance sampling for Monte Carlo integration.
Two new estimators reduce costs and improve accuracy for EHR outcome prediction.
Low-rank MPPCA improves importance sampling in high dimensions.
We develop a new method to estimate failure probabilities in complex systems.
New MCFOs improve learning generative models and time series inference.
This paper introduces Tree-Pyramidal Adaptive Importance Sampling (TP-AIS), a novel iterated sampling method that outperforms state-of-the-art approaches like deterministic mixture population Monte Carlo (DM-PMC), mixture population Monte Carlo (M-PMC) and layered adaptive importance sampling (LAIS). TP-AIS iteratively…