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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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591418 · Feb 202019922001200920172026
48 results for MCMC

The rapid development of computing power and efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation algorithms have revolutionized Bayesian statistics, making it a highly practical inference method in applied work. However, MCMC algorithms tend to be computationally demanding, and are particularly slow for large datasets…

2018-07-23abs ↗pdf ↗

It is known that the Langevin dynamics used in MCMC is the gradient flow of the KL divergence on the Wasserstein space, which helps convergence analysis and inspires recent particle-based variational inference methods (ParVIs). But no more MCMC dynamics is understood in this way. In this work, by developing novel conce…

2019-02-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Monte Carlo (MC) methods are widely used for Bayesian inference and optimization in statistics, signal processing and machine learning. A well-known class of MC methods are Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In order to foster better exploration of the state space, specially in high-dimensional applications, s…

2015-07-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Cyclical MCMC tackles high-dimensional multimodal distributions, showing convergence under certain conditions.

problem High-dimensional multimodal posterior distributions in deep learning.
method Cyclical MCMC framework that tracks tempered versions of the target distribution over time.
result Cyclical MCMC converges to the target distribution under fast mixing kernels but fails in slow mixing cases.

Statistical inference methods are fundamentally important in machine learning. Most state-of-the-art inference algorithms are variants of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) or variational inference (VI). However, both methods struggle with limitations in practice: MCMC methods can be computationally demanding; VI methods …

2018-05-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Particle MCMC involves using a particle filter within an MCMC algorithm. For inference of a model which involves an unobserved stochastic process, the standard implementation uses the particle filter to propose new values for the stochastic process, and MCMC moves to propose new values for the parameters. We show how p…

2014-08-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) algorithms have proven useful in scaling Bayesian inference to large datasets under an assumption of i.i.d data. We instead develop an SG-MCMC algorithm to learn the parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs) for time-dependent data. There are two challenges to applying SG-MCMC in this…

2017-06-14abs ↗pdf ↗

New analysis of SGD with MCMC gradient estimator shows convergence rate and saddle point escape.

problem Analyzing SGD with MCMC gradient estimator under complex conditions.
method Introduced MCMC-SGD, analyzed convergence rate and saddle point escape using Bernstein inequality.
result Proven first order convergence rate O(logK/nK)O(\log K/\sqrt{n K}) and saddle point escape at least O(ε11/2log2(1/ε))O(ε^{-11/2}\log^{2}(1/ε) ) steps.

Proposes MIVI for efficient posterior estimation and design of MCMC transitions.

problem Efficiently estimating posterior distributions in constrained time.
method Combines variational inference and MCMC with a variational distribution and optimized Markov chain.
result Optimized Markov chain improves variational distribution and vice versa, leading to more accurate posteriors.

This study evaluates different normalizing flow architectures for MCMC.

problem Lack of systematic comparison of normalizing flow architectures in MCMC.
method Extensive evaluation of various normalizing flow architectures on different MCMC methods and target distributions.
result Contractive residual flows are the best general-purpose models for MCMC.

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a popular and successful general-purpose tool for Bayesian inference. However, MCMC cannot be practically applied to large data sets because of the prohibitive cost of evaluating every likelihood term at every iteration. Here we present Firefly Monte Carlo (FlyMC) an auxiliary variabl…

2014-03-22abs ↗pdf ↗

Stochastic gradient MCMC (SG-MCMC) has played an important role in large-scale Bayesian learning, with well-developed theoretical convergence properties. In such applications of SG-MCMC, it is becoming increasingly popular to employ distributed systems, where stochastic gradients are computed based on some outdated par…

2016-10-21abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose Subsampling MCMC, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework where the likelihood function for nn observations is estimated from a random subset of mm observations. We introduce a highly efficient unbiased estimator of the log-likelihood based on control variates, such that the computing cost is much smal…

2014-04-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Study improves Bayesian calibration of mechanical properties using active learning and MCMC.

problem Inference of spatially varying material parameters in computational mechanics.
method Comprehensive comparative study of surrogate models and MCMC algorithms.
result Active learning strategy outperforms a priori trained models in posterior estimation.

The modern scale of data has brought new challenges to Bayesian inference. In particular, conventional MCMC algorithms are computationally very expensive for large data sets. A promising approach to solve this problem is embarrassingly parallel MCMC (EP-MCMC), which first partitions the data into multiple subsets and r…

2015-06-10abs ↗pdf ↗

Sampling from posterior distributions using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods can require an exhaustive number of iterations, particularly when the posterior is multi-modal as the MCMC sampler can become trapped in a local mode for a large number of iterations. In this paper, we introduce the pseudo-extended MCMC…

2017-08-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian neural networks tutorial via MCMC in Python.

problem Bayesian inference for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method MCMC sampling methods to implement Bayesian inference, including advanced proposal distributions.
result Challenges in sampling multi-modal posterior distributions for Bayesian neural networks.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) has been increasingly popular in Bayesian learning due to its ability to deal with large data. A standard SG-MCMC algorithm simulates samples from a discretized-time Markov chain to approximate a target distribution. However, the samples are typically highly correl…

2017-11-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Belief Propagation (BP) are the most popular algorithms for computational inference in Graphical Models (GM). In principle, MCMC is an exact probabilistic method which, however, often suffers from exponentially slow mixing. In contrast, BP is a deterministic method, which is typicall…

2016-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Speeding up Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) for datasets with many observations by data subsampling has recently received considerable attention. A pseudo-marginal MCMC method is proposed that estimates the likelihood by data subsampling using a block-Poisson estimator. The estimator is a product of Poisson estimators,…

2016-03-27abs ↗pdf ↗

With the rapidly growing scales of statistical problems, subset based communication-free parallel MCMC methods are a promising future for large scale Bayesian analysis. In this article, we propose a new Weierstrass sampler for parallel MCMC based on independent subsets. The new sampler approximates the full data poster…

2013-12-17abs ↗pdf ↗

Langevin MCMC samples efficiently from Riemannian manifolds with geometric Euler-Murayama analysis.

problem Efficient sampling from Gibbs distributions on Riemannian manifolds.
method Geometric Langevin MCMC, discretization error bound, contraction guarantee for Langevin Diffusion.
result Langevin MCMC iterates converge to the target distribution after a number of steps proportional to the inverse square of the desired accuracy.

We study the underdamped Langevin diffusion when the log of the target distribution is smooth and strongly concave. We present a MCMC algorithm based on its discretization and show that it achieves ε\varepsilon error (in 2-Wasserstein distance) in O(d/ε)\mathcal{O}(\sqrt{d}/\varepsilon) steps. This is a significant improv…

2017-07-12abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper proposes methods to estimate MCMC quality with couplings, bounding Wasserstein distance.

problem Improving MCMC efficiency without sacrificing asymptotic consistency.
method Estimators based on couplings of Markov chains to assess quality of asymptotically biased sampling methods.
result Empirical upper bounds of Wasserstein distance for assessing MCMC quality.

Paper proposes a method to improve MCMC sampling for energy-based models.

problem MCMC sampling of energy-based models is often not mixing in high-dimensional data.
method Proposes using a flow-based model as a backbone to correct the energy-based model, enabling mixing in latent space.
result MCMC sampling of the corrected EBM in the latent space mixes well and traverses modes in the data space.

This paper tackles sampling issues in latent space EBMs by introducing diffusion-based amortization.

problem Degenerate MCMC sampling quality hinders latent space EBM learning and generation quality.
method Introduces diffusion-based amortization for long-run MCMC sampling.
result The learned amortization of MCMC is a valid long-run MCMC sampler.

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are generally regarded as the gold standard technique for Bayesian inference. They are theoretically well-understood and conceptually simple to apply in practice. The drawback of MCMC is that in general performing exact inference requires all of the data to be processed at eac…

2019-07-16abs ↗pdf ↗

PL-MCMC samples from normalizing flows' conditional distributions.

problem Sampling from complex conditional distributions learned by normalizing flows.
method Metropolis-Hastings implementation of PL-MCMC.
result PL-MCMC asymptotically samples from exact conditional distributions.