Transformer learns CoVaR from financial news, improving systemic risk forecasts.
problem Quantifying systemic financial risk using conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR).
method Transformer-based approach integrating financial news articles with market data.
result Transformer CoVaR improves out-of-sample forecasts and identifies market stress periods.
A new CoVaR framework integrates expert views using entropy pooling.
problem Risk assessment and spillover effects from diverse expert views.
method Entropy pooling method to integrate expert views and compute general CoVaR.
result General CoVaR shows linear relationships with expectations and differences in expectations, and nonlinear dependencies with variance, quantiles, and correlation.
Dynamic models improve CoVaR forecasts for financial system risks.
problem Improving forecasts of systemic risk measures like CoVaR.
method Two-step M-estimator using bivariate scoring functions for VaR and CoVaR.
result CoCAViaR models generate superior CoVaR predictions.
The paper optimizes portfolios using relative tail risk measures.
problem Optimizing portfolios with respect to relative tail risk.
method Analytic forms of portfolio CoVaR and CoCVaR derived on a market model. Monte-Carlo simulation for CoCVaR and marginal contributions. Risk budgeting method applied.
result Derivation of analytic forms for CoVaR and CoCVaR, and their marginal contributions.
This paper is devoted to the quantification and analysis of marginal risk contribution of a given single financial institution i to the risk of a financial system s. Our work expands on the CoVaR concept proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier as a tool for the measurement of marginal systemic risk contribution. We first g…
Paper extends CoVaR for crypto markets, showing domino effects.
problem Analyzing systemic risk in crypto markets.
method Defining Vulnerability-CoVaR (VCoVaR), estimating via copula.
result VCoVaR captures domino effects better than other extensions.
Paper develops Monte-Carlo estimators for CoVaR, a key risk measure.
problem Estimating CoVaR, a critical risk measure in finance.
method Developed Monte-Carlo and importance-sampling estimators for CoVaR.
result Optimal rates of convergence for both estimators: n−1/3 and n−1/2. Measures risk contagion in financial networks using CoVaR.
problem Assessing stability of complex financial systems.
method Financial network model with bipartite graph of institutions and assets, heavy-tailed distributions, copula models, CoVaR and ECI.
result Proposes the Extreme CoVaR Index (ECI) for capturing risk contagion strength.
Paper introduces DCoVaR for aggregate risk models, outperforming existing methods.
problem Lack of coherent risk measures for aggregate risk models.
method Proposes Dependent Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCoVaR) for a target loss dependent on another random loss.
result DCoVaR outperforms MCoVaR and CCoVaR in numerical simulations and empirical studies.
This paper is dedicated to the consistency of systemic risk measures with respect to stochastic dependence. It compares two alternative notions of Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) available in the current literature. These notions are both based on the conditional distribution of a random variable Y given a stress eve…
The paper estimates CoVaR with various models for financial risk analysis.
problem Estimating conditional value-at-risk with financial time series data.
method Fitting multivariate parametric models and copula functions to capture stylized facts of equity returns.
result Backtesting shows that certain models provide better risk estimates than others.
The paper proposes a decoupled approach to efficiently estimate CoVaR, a measure of systemic financial risk.
problem Estimating CoVaR, a measure of systemic financial risk, is challenging due to zero-probability events and portfolio repricing.
method The paper introduces a decoupled approach using smoothing techniques and a functional perspective to model CoVaR.
result The decoupled estimator achieves a rate of convergence of approximately OmP(Γ−1/2). Study uses copulas and DCC-GARCH for multivariate risk analysis of VaR and CVaR.
problem Multivariate risk analysis for Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR).
method Copulas and Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC)-GARCH models applied to historical financial data.
result Comparison of different copula families for goodness-of-fit and effectiveness.
Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting market participants' risk capital. Commonly used risk management tools fail to acco…
This paper reformulates systemic risk measures and finds new properties and estimators.
problem Understanding and measuring systemic risk in financial networks.
method Representation of systemic risk measures in terms of univariate risk measures and quantiles determined by copulas. Empirical properties and estimators derived.
result MES is not suitable for measuring extreme risks. ES-based measures are more sensitive to power-law tails and large losses.
A two-step nonparametric method estimates financial systemic risk.
problem Estimating CoVaR due to unobservability of multivariate-quantiles.
method Two-step nonparametric approach using Monte-Carlo simulation and kernel method.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of the two-step estimator established.
Extended PELCoV for bivariate Student-t copulas to monitor foreign exchange risk.
problem Monitoring financial risk under asymmetric co-movements and tail dependence.
method Extending PELCoV to Student-t copulas, tracking dynamic risk spillovers.
result Potential to detect early signs of risk underestimation during financial stress.
Recent financial disasters have emphasised the need to accurately predict extreme financial losses and their consequences for the institutions belonging to a given financial market. The ability of econometric models to predict extreme events strongly relies on their flexibility to account for the highly nonlinear and a…
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
The subject of the present article is the study of correlations between large insurance companies and their contribution to systemic risk in the insurance sector. Our main goal is to analyze the conditional structure of the correlation on the European insurance market and to compare systemic risk in different regimes o…
This paper introduces a new systemic risk measure, JMES, and its associated contribution measures.
problem Measuring systemic risk and its contributions among entities.
method Proposes JMES and associated contribution measures, studies their properties, and compares them with existing measures.
result Established sufficient conditions for comparing JMES and other measures under different copula structures and stress levels.
New method allows backtesting of systemic risk forecasts.
problem Systemic risk measures are not elitable and identifiable, making backtesting impossible.
method Introduces multi-objective elicitability and Diebold--Mariano type tests.
result Proposes a traffic-light approach for backtesting.
Investigates how options can control systemic risk in portfolios.
problem Systemic risk in optioned portfolios.
method Correlation hedging, extreme loss hedging, and SOCP formulation.
result Options can make systemic risk controllable and enhance return-risk performance.
Novel risk matrix for optimal portfolio choice with tail risk considerations.
problem Optimal portfolio choice with tail risk events.
method Risk matrix with Value-at-Risk and Delta-CoVaR measures, derived conditions for closed-form solution, examination of portfolio risk and centrality, demonstration of asset centrality's impact on optimal weight allocation.
result Portfolio risk is not necessarily increasing with stock centrality and can be improved by high connectivity.
In this paper we consider a multivariate model-based approach to measure the dynamic evolution of tail risk interdependence among US banks, financial services and insurance sectors. To deeply investigate the risk contribution of insurers we consider separately life and non-life companies. To achieve this goal we apply …
A new method for estimating probabilities and risks using Markov processes.
problem Computational difficulties in classical importance sampling for latent Markov models.
method Proposes a new importance sampling framework that minimizes estimator variance.
result Shows logarithmic efficiency of the proposed estimator.
We propose a novel framework of estimating systemic risk measures and risk allocations based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We consider a class of allocations whose jth component can be written as some risk measure of the jth conditional marginal loss distribution given the so-called crisis event. By consi…
ASRI index detects crypto market risks with high precision and lead time.
problem Detecting systemic risks in cryptocurrency markets.
method Four weighted sub-indices (Stablecoin, DeFi, Contagion, Regulatory) validated against historical crises.
result ASRI detects significant abnormal signals with high statistical significance and lead time.
Forecasts of multivariate probability distributions are required for a variety of applications. Scoring rules enable the evaluation of forecast accuracy, and comparison between forecasting methods. We propose a theoretical framework for scoring rules for multivariate distributions, which encompasses the existing quadra…