The paper discovers and evaluates support and resistance levels in financial time series.
problem Understanding and predicting support and resistance levels in financial markets.
method Developed a heuristic discovery algorithm to identify SR levels in intraday price series.
result Discovered SR levels statistically significantly reverse price trends and have a decay aspect over time.
Fine-tuning a time series model improves financial price prediction accuracy.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting financial market prices using large models.
method Continual pre-training of a time series foundation model on financial data to fine-tune its performance for price prediction.
result The fine-tuned model outperforms the baseline in various financial metrics.
The paper presents a series representation for European option pricing driven by fractional diffusion.
problem Pricing European options under space-time fractional diffusion.
method Uses Mellin-Barnes representation and residue summation in the complex plane.
result Derives a rapidly convergent double-series formula for option pricing.
Paper analyzes electricity price and demand data to detect cyber-attacks using time series methods.
problem Detecting cyber-attacks in electricity price and demand data.
method Time series analysis, including moving average, moving standard deviation, and augmented Dickey-Fuller test.
result Identified anomalies in the data using time-series stationary criteria.
Using classical Taylor series techniques, we develop a unified approach to pricing and implied volatility for European-style options in a general local-stochastic volatility setting. Our price approximations require only a normal CDF and our implied volatility approximations are fully explicit (ie, they require no spec…
The paper presents a new method for option pricing using fractional diffusion.
problem Developing a new model for option pricing.
method Space-time fractional diffusion models and series representation.
result Option prices can be represented by rapidly converging double-series.
This study aimed to find temporal clusters for several commodity prices using the threshold non-linear autoregressive model. It is expected that the process of determining the commodity groups that are time-dependent will advance the current knowledge about the dynamics of co-moving and coherent prices, and can serve a…
The paper forecasts Bitcoin prices using statistical and machine learning models.
problem Forecasting Bitcoin's daily closing prices.
method Used statistical SLR and MLR models, and machine learning MLP and LSTM neural networks.
result The proposed models outperformed benchmarks and demonstrated efficacy.
StockTime predicts stock prices more accurately using LLMs and time series data.
problem Challenges in integrating time series data and natural language for stock price prediction.
method StockTime is a specialized LLM architecture that integrates textual and time series data to predict stock prices.
result StockTime outperforms recent LLMs in predicting stock prices with more accuracy.
Polynomial expansions improve option pricing accuracy.
problem Efficiently pricing and Greeks in stochastic volatility models.
method Analytic series representations for European and exotic options.
result Polynomial expansions match Fourier transform accuracy.
Classical time series models forecast Bitcoin prices and volatility accurately.
problem Forecasting Bitcoin prices and volatility using classical models.
method ARIMA, SARIMA, GARCH, and EGARCH models were trained and tested on Bitcoin price data.
result ARIMA models performed best for short-term price dynamics, while EGARCH models were best for volatility.
The CONLeg method prices and hedges various option types using Legendre series.
problem Pricing and hedging European-type, early-exercise, and discrete-monitored barrier options.
method Algorithm for the convolution of Legendre series (CONLeg method) applied to Levy process.
result High accuracy in pricing and hedging, especially for deep out-of-the-money and long/mature options.
New method for European option pricing faster and more robust.
problem Pricing European options efficiently and accurately.
method Fourier cosine series expansions for models with known characteristic functions.
result More robust and faster than the original COS method.
Derives a series expansion for Asian option pricing with polynomial jump-diffusion moments.
problem Pricing Asian options with polynomial jump-diffusion processes.
method Uses Hermite polynomials and moments of the underlying process for closed-form computation.
result Explicit computation of Greeks and accurate series expansion for Asian options.
Study integrates ESG factors into home price predictions for U.S. cities.
problem Predicting average annual home prices using ESG factors.
method Used P-spline GAM and GLM models, transformed time series data.
result ESG factors influence home prices differently by city.
Study compares price patterns of cryptocurrencies and stocks using machine learning.
problem Investor behavior in cryptocurrencies vs. stocks.
method Machine learning models (LR, RF, SVM) classify price time series of cryptocurrencies and stocks.
result Cryptocurrencies and stocks have distinct price patterns, explained by various statistical features.
The paper provides a series expansion for Asian option pricing using orthogonal polynomials.
problem Deriving a series expansion for the price of Asian options in the Black-Scholes model.
method The approach uses orthogonal polynomials that are orthogonal with respect to the log-normal distribution.
result The series expansion is fully explicit and converges under certain conditions, with negligible asymptotic bias in practice.
The COS method proposed in Fang and Oosterlee (2008), although highly efficient, may lack robustness for a number of cases. In this paper, we present a Stable pricing of call options based on Fourier cosine series expansion. The Stability of the pricing methods is demonstrated by error analysis, as well as by a series …
FinTSBridge evaluates financial time series models for asset pricing.
problem Lack of effective evaluation methods for financial time series models.
method Developed FinTSBridge suite with new metrics and tasks.
result Showcased new metrics for financial time series models.
The paper modifies asset pricing models using Taylor series expansions and market-based averages.
problem Improving asset pricing models to better reflect market dynamics.
method Derives new pricing equations using Taylor series expansions and market-based averages.
result New expressions for asset prices and volatilities derived from market data.
Formula for European option pricing under jump diffusion model.
problem Option pricing under complex stochastic processes.
method Infinite series of Black-Scholes terms for Levy-driven processes.
result Series solution converges with a radius of convergence.
Quantum computing for option pricing using MPS states.
problem Efficiently generating time series for path-dependent options on quantum computers.
method Proposes a Matrix Product State (MPS) model for time series generation and trains it for the Heston model.
result Demonstrates the MPS model's capability to generate paths in the Heston model for path-dependent option pricing.
Extended speculation game improves Hurst exponent of financial time series.
problem Anti-persistent market price behavior resulting in small Hurst exponent.
method Introduced a perturbative part to price change considering additional effects.
result Improved Hurst exponent value of financial time series.
The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability periods. In the case of asset prices, such scaling behaviour can be used for risk…
Paper presents models for stock price prediction using SPX index.
problem Predicting stock prices using time series data.
method Four models: martingale, ordinary linear, generalized linear, and RNN.
result RNN model performs best among the four models.
We find prominent similarities in the features of the time series for the overlap of two Cantor sets when one set moves with uniform relative velocity over the other and time series of stock prices. An anticipation method for some of the crashes have been proposed here, based on these observations.
New formulas for Black-Scholes option prices and Greeks derived.
problem Calculating accurate prices and Greeks for European options.
method Uniformly convergent series expansions for option prices and precise boundaries for convergence speed.
result New formulas for option prices and Greeks with precise convergence rates.
Combines CNN and Transformer for financial time series forecasting.
problem Forecasting financial time series, especially stock prices, is challenging due to short-term and long-term dependencies.
method Uses CNN for short-term dependencies and Transformer for long-term dependencies.
result Demonstrated superior performance in forecasting stock price changes compared to traditional methods.
Research compares ML and Time Series methods for generating trading signals.
problem Efficiency of on-line learning Algorithms in generating trading signals.
method Used technical indicators and ensemble of Random Forests, also Kalman Filter.
result Kalman Filter outperformed Random Forests in on-line learning predictions of stock prices.
This study improves stock price prediction using multimodal data.
problem Improving financial asset price forecasting accuracy.
method Combining candlestick time series and textual news flow data using LSTM and pre-trained models.
result Textual modality reduces MAPE by 55%.
Study cryptocurrency price dynamics using adaptive EMD and spectral analysis.
problem Analyze the time-varying volatility of cryptocurrency prices.
method Adaptive complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (ACE-EMD) and Hilbert spectral analysis.
result Reveal the properties of various timescales in cryptocurrency price dynamics.
MRC-LSTM predicts Bitcoin prices using CNN and LSTM.
problem Predicting Bitcoin price with high volatility and complex factors.
method Combines MRC and LSTM, focusing on multi-scale features and long-term dependencies.
result MRC-LSTM significantly outperforms other models in Bitcoin price prediction.
Hidformer improves stock price prediction accuracy using Transformer techniques.
problem Improving stock price prediction accuracy using machine learning.
method Adapted Transformer model (Hidformer) for stock price forecasting.
result Hidformer shows promising performance in stock price prediction.
Deep learning improves asset pricing models.
problem Estimating asset pricing models with limited data.
method Used deep neural networks, fundamental no-arbitrage condition, adversarial approach, and macroeconomic time series.
result Deep learning asset pricing model outperforms benchmarks.
CryptoGAT improves cryptocurrency price prediction by treating it as a graph problem.
problem Cryptocurrency price prediction challenges due to extreme volatility.
method CryptoGAT, a Graph Attention Network, redefines cryptocurrency prediction as a cross-asset graph problem.
result CryptoGAT outperforms state-of-the-art methods in cryptocurrency price prediction.
Deep models predict intraday electricity prices accurately.
problem Accurately forecasting intraday electricity prices.
method Two deep time series probabilistic models using ESNs with stochastic disturbances and copulas.
result Deep distributional models provide accurate short-term probabilistic price forecasts.
The Adomian decomposition method is shown to be equivalent to the Taylor series approach.
problem Incorrectly perceived complexity of the Adomian decomposition method.
method Demonstrates the Adomian decomposition method as equivalent to the Taylor series approach.
result The Adomian decomposition method is simpler and more straightforward.
TSFMs outperform traditional models in electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate electricity price forecasting for effective decision-making.
method Benchmarking several TSFMs against traditional models using real-world data.
result MSTL model consistently outperforms TSFMs across countries and metrics.
Deep reinforcement learning models win trading games on time series data.
problem Optimizing trading strategies for time series data.
method Deep Q-learning models (GRU, LSTM, CNN, MLP) trained on idealized trading games.
result Models can find profitable trading strategies for both univariate and bivariate time series data.
BreakGPT predicts asset price surges using LLMs.
problem Predicting sharp upward movements in volatile financial markets.
method Adapts LLMs for time series forecasting, combining LLM capabilities with Transformer models.
result BreakGPT effectively captures local and global temporal dependencies.
We offer new formulas for European option pricing under tempered stable processes.
problem Pricing European options under tempered stable processes.
method Series expansions for tempered stable densities and European option prices.
result Our formulas are hyperparameter-free and competitive with traditional methods.
Superstatistics with cut-off tails models financial data with fat tails and cutoffs.
problem Capturing the fat-tailed and cutoff shapes in financial time series.
method Incorporates cut-off effects into superstatistics to model financial data.
result The model accurately describes real financial time series properties.
VTA combines verbal and latent reasoning for accurate stock time-series forecasts.
problem Challenges in combining textual analysis with time-series data for financial forecasting.
method Converts stock price data into textual annotations, optimizes reasoning trace using inverse MSE, conditions time-series model outputs on reasoning attributes.
result VTA achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy and interpretable reasoning traces.
Entropy measure assesses market volatility and price heterogeneity.
problem Quantifying short-term market heterogeneity in financial time series.
method Entropy measure based on intersecting a random sequence with its moving average.
result Entropy of volatility series varies by market, while price series is market-invariant.
This study improves cryptocurrency price forecasting using time series categorization and deep learning.
problem Accurate prediction of cryptocurrency prices is challenging due to limited data and diverse behaviors.
method The approach involves categorizing financial time series, creating deep learning models for each category, and combining data from other cryptocurrencies to increase training data.
result The method increases prediction accuracy by learning each subseries category with similar behavior and combining data from other cryptocurrencies.
Bayesian model improves asset price forecasting using realized volatility.
problem Improving asset price forecasting accuracy.
method Integrates dynamic gamma process with DLMs for price and realized volatility.
result Significant improvements in asset price forecasting compared to standard models.
Volatility dynamics of wavelet - filtered stock price time series is studied. Using the universal thresholding method of wavelet filtering and a principle of minimal linear autocorrelation of noise component we find that the quantitative characteristics of volatility dynamics of denoised series are noticeably different…
We analyze long-term memory properties of hourly prices of electricity in the Czech Republic between 2009 and 2012. As the dynamics of the electricity prices is dominated by cycles -- mainly intraday and daily -- we opt for the detrended fluctuation analysis, which is well suited for such specific series. We find that …