arXiv research

Meta algorithm solves multivariate optimization using univariate optimizers.

This study compares multivariate vs univariate machine learning for multi-output regression.

This paper improves multi-label ranking by reweighting univariate losses, enhancing consistency and performance.

Study assesses drought and late-frost risks in Bavaria using vine copulas.

Recent advances in statistical theory, together with advances in the computational power of computers, provide alternative methods to do mass-univariate hypothesis testing in which a large number of univariate tests, can be properly used to compare MEEG data at a large number of time-frequency points and scalp location…

Deep learning methods improve time series forecasting by optimizing lag selection.

Optimal unimodal fitting for linear loss functions in a sequential, efficient manner.

Statistical tests that compare classification algorithms are univariate and use a single performance measure, e.g., misclassification error, $F$ measure, AUC, and so on. In multivariate tests, comparison is done using multiple measures simultaneously. For example, error is the sum of false positives and false negatives…

Hybrid LSTM-fully convolutional networks (LSTM-FCN) for time series classification have produced state-of-the-art classification results on univariate time series. We show that replacing the LSTM with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) to create a GRU-fully convolutional network hybrid model (GRU-FCN) can offer even better p…

Proposes a method to partition univariate data into unimodal subsets.

Study active learning of PTFs with derivative access.

Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for timeseries prediction that utilizes convolutional layers for feature extraction, a r…

AI learns to classify and represent univariate distributions in a 2D latent space.

AdaPTS adapts univariate FMs for multivariate time series forecasting.

New simulations advise caution in choosing principal components for multivariate functional data.

We consider families of strongly consistent multivariate conditional risk measures. We show that under strong consistency these families admit a decomposition into a conditional aggregation function and a univariate conditional risk measure as introduced Hoffmann et al. (2016). Further, in analogy to the univariate cas…

Efficient binary sampling method for global optimization of univariate functions with low regret.

Anomalies in time-series data give essential and often actionable information in many applications. In this paper we consider a model-free anomaly detection method for univariate time-series which adapts to non-stationarity in the data stream and provides probabilistic abnormality scores based on the conformal predicti…

Shallow neural networks can represent polynomials efficiently.

We develop a classification algorithm for estimating posterior distributions from positive-unlabeled data, that is robust to noise in the positive labels and effective for high-dimensional data. In recent years, several algorithms have been proposed to learn from positive-unlabeled data; however, many of these contribu…

uGMM-NN integrates probabilistic reasoning into neural networks.

We conduct an extensive empirical study on short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) to address the long-standing question if the optimal model structure for EPF is univariate or multivariate. We provide evidence that despite a minor edge in predictive performance overall, the multivariate modeling framework does …

New algorithms benchmarked for multivariate time series classification.

Deep Q-learning is investigated as an end-to-end solution to estimate the optimal strategies for acting on time series input. Experiments are conducted on two idealized trading games. 1) Univariate: the only input is a wave-like price time series, and 2) Bivariate: the input includes a random stepwise price time series…

New multivariate risk measures improve on univariate OCE methods.

Several classification methods assume that the underlying distributions follow tree-structured graphical models. Indeed, trees capture statistical dependencies between pairs of variables, which may be crucial to attain low classification errors. The resulting classifier is linear in the log-transformed univariate and b…

The paper offers a unified approach to the study of three locally adaptive estimation methods in the context of univariate time series from both theoretical and empirical points of view. A general procedure for the computation of critical values is given. The underlying model encompasses all distributions from the expo…

Chronos-2 forecasts multivariate and covariate data without task-specific training.

We introduce a family of adaptive estimators on graphs, based on penalizing the $\ell_1$ norm of discrete graph differences. This generalizes the idea of trend filtering [Kim et al. (2009), Tibshirani (2014)], used for univariate nonparametric regression, to graphs. Analogous to the univariate case, graph trend filteri…

New neural networks learn distribution functions using quantiles and moments.

Various approaches to gene selection for cancer classification based on microarray data can be found in the literature and they may be grouped into two categories: univariate methods and multivariate methods. Univariate methods look at each gene in the data in isolation from others. They measure the contribution of a p…

Point forecasting of univariate time series is a challenging problem with extensive work having been conducted. However, nonparametric probabilistic forecasting of time series, such as in the form of quantiles or prediction intervals is an even more challenging problem. In an effort to expand the possible forecasting p…

A new Weyl prior is proposed for Bayesian statistics, offering a more canonical choice for parameter α.

We develop Square Root Graphical Models (SQR), a novel class of parametric graphical models that provides multivariate generalizations of univariate exponential family distributions. Previous multivariate graphical models [Yang et al. 2015] did not allow positive dependencies for the exponential and Poisson generalizat…

We study a class of weakly identifiable location-scale mixture models for which the maximum likelihood estimates based on $n$ i.i.d. samples are known to have lower accuracy than the classical $n^{- \frac{1}{2}}$ error. We investigate whether the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm also converges slowly for these m…

We present the first adaptive strategy for active learning in the setting of classification with smooth decision boundary. The problem of adaptivity (to unknown distributional parameters) has remained opened since the seminal work of Castro and Nowak (2007), which first established (active learning) rates for this sett…

New statistical methods improve explainability of boosting models.

DKMD is a fast signed statistic for comparing univariate distributions.

Paper presents methods to create stock price confidence intervals using LSTM models.

A boosting method improves nonparametric density estimation without smoothing assumptions.

Sales forecasts are crucial for the E-commerce business. State-of-the-art techniques typically apply only univariate methods to make prediction for each series independently. However, due to the short nature of sales times series in E-commerce, univariate methods don't apply well. In this article, we propose a global m…

LSTMs improve bond yield forecasting with unique signals.

Time series anomaly detection plays a critical role in automated monitoring systems. Most previous deep learning efforts related to time series anomaly detection were based on recurrent neural networks (RNN). In this paper, we propose a time series segmentation approach based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) for …

Extended univariate Range Value-at-Risk to multivariate settings.

We give new upper and lower bounds on the minimax sample complexity of differentially private mean estimation of distributions with bounded $k$-th moments. Roughly speaking, in the univariate case, we show that $n = Θ\left(\frac{1}{α^2} + \frac{1}{α^{\frac{k}{k-1}}\varepsilon}\right)$ samples are necessary and sufficie…

The univariate piecing-together approach (PT) fits a univariate generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to the upper tail of a given distribution function in a continuous manner. We propose a multivariate extension. First it is shown that an arbitrary copula is in the domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value …

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are simple and extremely powerful techniques to sample from almost arbitrary distributions. The flaw in practice is that it can take a large and/or unknown amount of time to converge to the stationary distribution. This paper gives sufficient conditions to guarantee that univa…

New method for multivariate distribution regression using NPT metric.