Unified framework linking firm signals and cross-asset spillovers for SDF estimation.
problem Estimating SDF with cross-asset spillovers and firm-level predictive signals.
method Maximizing Sharpe ratio to jointly estimate signals and spillovers, yielding interpretable SDF.
result SDF consistently outperforms benchmarks across various investment universes and market states.
This paper examines cryptocurrency integration with traditional markets, showing how network structure and turbulence influence cross-asset spillovers.
problem Understanding how cryptocurrencies integrate with traditional financial markets and the impact of market stress on cross-asset spillovers.
method Combining rolling correlation networks, community structure, market-specific and system-wide Turbulence Indices, and VAR-based connectedness analysis.
result Cross-asset integration is episodic, with network structure and turbulence playing a role in transmission during stress periods.
AI models outperform simple rules in cross-asset futures timing, especially with lower transaction costs.
problem Optimizing cross-asset portfolio weights using traditional forecasting and optimization methods.
method End-to-end AI policies that map market states directly to portfolio weights, trained on CME futures using a differentiable Sharpe ratio loss function.
result Transformer-based AI policies outperform simple rules and equal weighting, trading less and matching or exceeding equal weighting through moderate transaction costs.
Paper optimizes trend-following portfolios using autocorrelation models.
problem Developing an optimal trend-following portfolio strategy.
method Introduces a unifying theoretical setting with autocorrelation models for covariance matrices of trends and risk premia. Specifies practical models for covariance matrices. Decomposes optimal portfolio into four basic components.
result Empirical backtests confirm overperformance of the proposed optimal portfolio.
CryptoGAT improves cryptocurrency price prediction by treating it as a graph problem.
problem Cryptocurrency price prediction challenges due to extreme volatility.
method CryptoGAT, a Graph Attention Network, redefines cryptocurrency prediction as a cross-asset graph problem.
result CryptoGAT outperforms state-of-the-art methods in cryptocurrency price prediction.
Paper solves optimal portfolio deleveraging with cross asset impacts.
problem Maximize equity while meeting debt/equity requirement with cross asset price impacts.
method Developed successive convex optimization (SCO) and an effective global algorithm integrating SCO, convex relaxation, and branch-and-bound.
result Proposed algorithms find global optimal solutions efficiently.
We consider a mean-reverting stochastic volatility model which satisfies some relevant stylized facts of financial markets. We introduce an algorithm for the detection of peaks in the volatility profile, that we apply to the time series of Dow Jones Industrial Average and Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 in the perio…
Study reduces financial dynamics complexity using PCA for NASDAQ, oil, gold, and USD.
problem Understanding complex financial interactions among multiple assets.
method Time-delay embedding and PCA for dimensionality reduction, followed by linear regression.
result Limited number of principal components capture dominant dynamics of each asset.
New method identifies whether equity return predictability is due to magnitude shrinkage or directional reversal.
problem Determining the nature of equity return predictability (directional reversal vs magnitude shrinkage).
method Developed the Fourier-Residue Identity (FRI) to decompose return autocorrelation into sign and magnitude channels.
result The lag-1 autocorrelation in SPY is driven entirely by magnitude shrinkage, not directional reversal.
Rough volatility is a well-established statistical stylised fact of financial assets. This property has lead to the design and analysis of various new rough stochastic volatility models. However, most of these developments have been carried out in the mono-asset case. In this work, we show that some specific multivaria…
Cryptocurrency markets treat infrastructure failures and regulatory shocks differently, but the effect is not statistically significant.
problem Understanding how cryptocurrency markets differentiate between infrastructure failures and regulatory shocks.
method A multi-moment event study using GJR-GARCH-X model with matched dependence-robust inference.
result The differential impact of infrastructure failures and regulatory shocks on cryptocurrency markets is not statistically significant.
VOLARE provides standardized realized volatility measures from financial data.
problem Lack of standardized realized volatility measures from ultra-high-frequency data.
method Asset-specific pipeline for cleaning and sampling data, providing a wide range of realized estimators.
result Comprehensive set of realized estimators for equities, exchange rates, and futures.
Simplified approach to portfolio risk management and hedging in practice.
problem Challenges in applying academic portfolio risk management and hedging in real-world business settings.
method A straightforward approach using convex optimization and quadratic programming.
result Demonstrates how to solve portfolio risk management and hedging problems with CVXOPT.
Study shows integrating OFI from multiple levels improves price impact explanation but not forecasting.
problem Explaining and forecasting price movements in equity markets using OFI.
method Systematic approach to combine OFIs from multiple levels into an integrated variable, testing multi-asset models with and without cross-impact terms.
result Lagged cross-asset OFIs improve future return forecasting but not contemporaneous price impact.
A new uncertainty principle helps traders better understand market activity.
problem Understanding high-frequency market activity and correlation.
method Integrates market activity, order-flow overlap, and response time into a clock-dependent uncertainty principle.
result Six rules of thumb for traders operating at market-making frequencies.
A new model optimizes portfolios by learning stock return distributions conditioned on factors.
problem Optimizing portfolios with high-dimensional asset-specific factors.
method Conditional Diffusion Transformer architecture linking each asset's return to its factor vector.
result The model outperforms benchmarks in mean-variance and mean-CVaR optimization.
TradeFM learns market microstructure from trade events, improving financial model accuracy.
problem Lack of generalizable models for market microstructure.
method Generative Transformer model trained on billions of trade events, using scale-invariant features and universal tokenization.
result TradeFM generates rollouts that match key stylized facts of financial returns and outperforms existing models.
The paper examines how decentralized credit curators have taken over risk management from traditional protocols.
problem Risk management in decentralized credit has shifted from centralized protocols to decentralized curators.
method Analysis of ERC 4626 vaults and third-party curators, focusing on capital utilization, concentration, and fee margins.
result Curators have a significant impact on the risk profile of decentralized credit systems, with a small set of curators handling a disproportionate share of system TVL.
Study finds a phase transition in flash crashes involving large and liquid stocks.
problem Systemic risk and propagation of shocks in high frequency trading.
method In-depth investigation of co-crashes in high frequency trading.
result Large co-crashes involve mostly illiquid stocks, while small crashes involve a mix of liquid and illiquid stocks.
Coding collaborations link crypto returns, revealing systemic transparency.
problem Cryptocurrencies' market behavior overlooked due to isolated code approach.
method Analyzed 4% of developers contributing to multiple cryptocurrencies.
result First coding event linking two cryptocurrencies synchronizes their returns.
Hybrid ML ensemble predicts market risk and generates alpha.
problem Forecasting short-horizon market risk and generating alpha.
method Neural networks and tree-based voting models integrated for trading signal.
result Sharpe ratio of 2.51 and annualized CAPM alpha of +0.28.
We consider a model for linear transient price impact for multiple assets that takes cross-asset impact into account. Our main goal is to single out properties that need to be imposed on the decay kernel so that the model admits well-behaved optimal trade execution strategies. We first show that the existence of such s…
Paper forecasts stock correlations using a hybrid model combining graph neural networks and transformers.
problem Improving stock correlation forecasts for better portfolio management.
method Hybrid model combining Transformer and graph attention networks for forecasting residual deviations from historical data.
result The hybrid model reduces correlation forecasting error compared to rolling-window estimates.
Proposes a Structural Matrix Autoregressive model for joint analysis of asset returns, realized volatility, and trading volume.
problem Joint analysis of asset returns, realized volatility, and trading volume
method Structural Matrix Autoregressive model
result Volatility is primary driver of trading activity, with informational shocks incorporated through price variability.
Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.
problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.
Develops a hedging method for multi-asset derivatives with correlation risk.
problem Hedging multi-asset derivatives exposed to correlation and covariance risk.
method Combines dynamic trading with static hedging instruments using Galtchouk--Kunita--Watanabe decomposition.
result Explicit semi-static replication formulas for covariance swaps and geometric dispersion trades.
Proposes a new framework for investing that adapts to market regimes.
problem Adapting to dynamic market regimes for better investment performance.
method Wasserstein Hidden Markov Model (HMM) with transaction-cost-aware optimization.
result Significantly higher risk-adjusted performance compared to benchmarks.
Recent years have witnessed the successful marriage of finance innovations and AI techniques in various finance applications including quantitative trading (QT). Despite great research efforts devoted to leveraging deep learning (DL) methods for building better QT strategies, existing studies still face serious challen…
Spectral portfolio theory links neural networks to wealth dynamics via SGD weight matrices.
problem Understanding wealth dynamics from neural network training.
method Direct identification of weight matrices as portfolio allocation matrices, linking SGD forces to portfolio dynamics.
result Spectral properties of SGD weight matrices transition between additive and multiplicative regimes, influencing wealth dynamics.
GRTR framework uses graph regularization to improve financial forecasting.
problem High computational costs and economic domain knowledge loss in tensor models.
method Graph-Regularized Tensor Regression (GRTR) framework incorporating economic domain knowledge.
result Improved performance in multi-way financial forecasting with reduced computational costs.
Study identifies key metrics for small and large tick assets in LOBs.
problem Understanding microstructural properties of LOBs across different tick sizes.
method Hawkes Process model to fit LOBs of large and small tick assets.
result Model can transition stylized facts from large to small tick assets.
Enhances portfolio construction with tailored regime forecasts for individual assets.
problem Traditional portfolio construction methods fail to account for asset-specific market conditions.
method Hybrid framework combining unsupervised and supervised learning for regime identification and forecasting.
result Outperforms traditional portfolio models across various asset classes.
PortBench benchmarks LLMs for PM, revealing their weaknesses in diversification and robustness.
problem Lack of benchmarks for LLM-driven portfolio management, especially in diversification and robustness.
method Developed a comprehensive benchmark with a static QA dataset and a dynamic allocation pipeline, introducing metrics to evaluate correlation and robustness.
result 90% of LLMs fail to outperform a basic equal-weight allocation, highlighting their limitations in diversification and robustness.
WaveCorr uses deep reinforcement learning to manage portfolios more effectively.
problem Dynamic portfolio rebalancing with multiple factors.
method Introduces WaveCorr, a DRL network with permutation invariant correlation processing.
result WaveCorr outperforms existing methods with up to 25% improvement in Sharpe ratio.
Kronos improves financial time series analysis with a pre-trained model.
problem Limited application of large-scale models to financial candlestick data.
method Unified, scalable pre-training framework for financial K-line modeling.
result Kronos excels in financial tasks like price forecasting and volatility prediction.
LiveTradeBench evaluates LLMs in live trading environments.
problem Static benchmarks fail to assess real-world trading ability.
method Live data streaming, portfolio management abstraction, multi-market evaluation.
result LLMs show distinct portfolio styles and adapt to live signals.
DeePM is a deep-learning portfolio manager that outperforms classical strategies in diversified futures markets.
problem Maximizing risk-adjusted returns in financial markets with low signal-to-noise ratios and asynchronous data.
method Structured deep learning with a Directed Delay mechanism, Macroeconomic Graph Prior, and distributionally robust optimization.
result DeePM achieves net risk-adjusted returns roughly twice those of classical strategies and passive benchmarks.
The composition of natural liquidity has been changing over time. An analysis of intraday volumes for the S&P500 constituent stocks illustrates that (i) volume surprises, i.e., deviations from their respective forecasts, are correlated across stocks, and (ii) this correlation increases during the last few hours of the …
Breaks circular dependency in synthetic option pricing with a novel model.
problem Circular dependency in implied volatility limits synthetic data for machine learning and risk analysis.
method Uses a Jump-Hidden Markov Model to generate price paths and a modified Heston process to convert paths into implied volatility.
result Framework generates realistic synthetic American option prices without external calibration.
Continuous Hidden Markov Models for Equity Returns
problem Generating synthetic equity returns that match real return characteristics
method Continuous Hidden Markov Models
result Recovered volatility clustering and narrowed kurtosis gap
PIVOT bridges Black-Scholes price and implied volatility spaces via a differentiable layer.
problem Lack of a differentiable interface between price and implied volatility spaces.
method Develops PIVOT, a differentiable layer that preserves LBR's forward pass and avoids backpropagation through branch logic, addressing singularity issues.
result PIVOT achieves high performance and accuracy, reducing price and implied volatility errors by up to 43.4% and 21.3% respectively.