Enhances topology optimization with multiclass microstructures using latent variable Gaussian process.
problem Lack of an inherent ordering or distance measure between different classes of microstructures.
method Extended latent-variable Gaussian process (LVGP) models to multi-response LVGP (MR-LVGP) models for metamaterials.
result Improved performance through consistent load-transfer paths for micro- and macro-structures.
A key problem in computational material science deals with understanding the effect of material distribution (i.e., microstructure) on material performance. The challenge is to synthesize microstructures, given a finite number of microstructure images, and/or some physical invariances that the microstructure exhibits. …
A VAE model predicts material properties and microstructures.
problem Building forward and inverse structure-property linkages in materials science.
method Combines VAE with regression, using a two-level prior and multi-modal Gaussian mixture.
result The model achieves accurate forward and inverse predictions of material properties and microstructures.
Establishes a microstructural foundation for a rough log-normal volatility model.
problem Developing a robust model for financial volatility under microstructural effects.
method Introduced a sequence of order-driven financial market models with Poisson process arrivals and analyzed their convergence to a log-normal rough volatility model.
result Weak convergence of price-volatility process to a log-normal rough volatility model with established weak error rates.
Framework automates microstructure image analysis for materials science.
problem Complex microstructures in materials require automated analysis.
method Combines unsupervised and supervised learning for classification and segmentation.
result Framework can automatically segment and classify micrographs.
Paper clusters microstructure measures for better stock return prediction.
problem Finding the best microstructure measures for predicting stock returns.
method Clustering model of market microstructure features studied in 10-second time-frequency.
result Identifies the most effective microstructure measures for accurate stock return prediction.
Optimizes natural frequencies of cellular composites with various microstructures.
problem Designing cellular composites with diverse microstructures for maximizing natural frequencies.
method Data-driven topology optimization with a latent-variable Gaussian process model.
result Cellular designs with multiclass microstructures achieve higher natural frequencies.
Microstructures of a material form the bridge linking processing conditions - which can be controlled, to the material property - which is the primary interest in engineering applications. Thus a critical task in material design is establishing the processing-structure relationship, which requires domain expertise and …
We present a simple microstructure model of financial returns that combines (i) the well-known ARFIMA process applied to tick-by-tick returns, (ii) the bid-ask bounce effect, (iii) the fat tail structure of the distribution of returns and (iv) the non-Poissonian statistics of inter-trade intervals. This model allows us…
Two models incorporate market microstructure noise into asset pricing and option valuation.
problem Effect of market microstructure noise on asset pricing and option valuation.
method Developed two models: a continuous-time Black-Scholes-Merton model and a discrete binomial tree model.
result Extracted coefficients to quantify noise impact on volatility and drift.
Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.
problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.
A new model prices assets considering market microstructure effects.
problem Including market microstructure effects in dynamic asset pricing.
method Discrete binary tree model with history-dependent underlying security prices.
result The model preserves historical price dynamics and is market-complete, arbitrage-free.
The study finds a liquidity premium in stock returns, but only after correcting for microstructure noise.
problem The positive association between expected idiosyncratic volatility and expected stock returns.
method Developed a novel method to eliminate microstructure influences from stock returns and estimate idiosyncratic volatility.
result The liquidity premium in value-weighted portfolios is driven by liquidity in the prior month after correcting for microstructure noise.
Paper establishes MLE consistency for market microstructure models.
problem Estimating parameters in partially observed diffusion models.
method Tractable sufficient condition for MLE consistency based on stationary distribution.
result Maximum likelihood estimators are consistent for market microstructure parameters.
Article examines NFT market microstructure and trading risks.
problem Difficulty in distinguishing genuine NFTs from fads and scams.
method Analyzes price formation, market structure, and transparency.
result Provides due-diligence pointers to mitigate NFT trading risk.
Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) aims to accelerate optimal design of complex material systems by integrating material science and design automation. For tractable ICME, it is required that (1) a structural feature space be identified to allow reconstruction of new designs, and (2) the reconstructi…
In this paper, we provide non-parametric statistical tools to test stationarity of microstructure noise in general hidden Ito semimartingales, and discuss how to measure liquidity risk using high frequency financial data. In particular, we investigate the impact of non-stationary microstructure noise on some volatility…
Method detects effects of synthesis parameters on plutonium oxide microstructure.
problem Detecting effects of synthesis parameters on material microstructure.
method Copula theory, high dimensional distribution distances, and permutational statistics.
result Effects of strike order and oxalic acid feed on plutonium oxide microstructure detected.
A framework uses deep generative modeling to design metamaterials efficiently.
problem Designing metamaterials with complex properties is challenging due to high-dimensional design space and high computational cost.
method A variational autoencoder (VAE) and a regressor are trained on a large database to map microstructures to a latent space, enabling interpolation and manipulation of microstructures.
result The latent space provides a distance metric for shape similarity and encoding meaningful patterns of variation, enabling efficient design of microstructures and multiscale systems.
TradeFM learns market microstructure from trade events, improving financial model accuracy.
problem Lack of generalizable models for market microstructure.
method Generative Transformer model trained on billions of trade events, using scale-invariant features and universal tokenization.
result TradeFM generates rollouts that match key stylized facts of financial returns and outperforms existing models.
Enhances binomial model with machine learning for microstructure effects.
problem Traditional binomial models ignore market microstructure effects like bid-ask spreads.
method Augments binomial tree with Random Forest classifiers trained on market data.
result Achieves 88.25% AUC in forecasting price movements using real-world data.
We simulate a series of daily returns from intraday price movements initiated by microstructure elements. Significant evidence is found that daily returns and daily return volatility exhibit first order autocorrelation, but trading volume and daily return volatility are not correlated, while intraday volatility is. We …
In this paper, we build tests for the presence of residual noise in a model where the market microstructure noise is a known parametric function of some variables from the limit order book. The tests compare two distinct quasi-maximum likelihood estimators of volatility, where the related model includes a residual nois…
This paper presents a new interacting particle system and uses it as a spin model for financial market microstructure. The asymptotic analysis of this stochastic process exhibits a lower bound to the contemporaneous measurement of price and trading volume under the invariant measure in the `frozen' phase of the supercr…
New method for spot volatility estimation with reduced microstructure noise.
problem Estimating spot volatility from noisy high-frequency data.
method Pre-averaging/kernel estimator to handle microstructure noise.
result Optimal bandwidth selection and kernel functions for minimal variance.
Using recent advances in the econometrics literature, we disentangle from high frequency observations on the transaction prices of a large sample of NYSE stocks a fundamental component and a microstructure noise component. We then relate these statistical measurements of market microstructure noise to observable charac…
Unified framework for forward and inverse PDE problems in multiphase media.
problem Non-differentiable inverse problems in discrete-valued material fields.
method GenPANIS: Latent-variable generative framework preserving discrete microstructures.
result Unified bidirectional inference with minimal labeled pairs and physics-aware decoder.
Study confirms rough volatility in financial data, independent of microstructure noise.
problem Characterizing volatility in financial markets, especially rough volatility.
method Used range-based volatility estimators to confirm findings from fractional behavior.
result Log-volatility behaves like fractional Brownian motion with an even lower Hurst exponent.
Trading strategy mimics optimal control with simple heuristic.
problem Maximizing profit in markets with limited optimal control.
method Using the gradient of the Bellman value function as effective microstructure alphas.
result Trading strategy approximates optimal behavior in long-term trades.
This paper analyzes microstructure dynamics in coupled markets using CFMMs.
problem Quantifying contributions of CFMMs to market dynamics in coupled markets.
method Examined constant function market makers (CFMMs) in coupled markets, focusing on basket inflation/deflation.
result CFMMs contribute significantly to basket inflation/deflation in coupled markets.
Framework simulates market microstructure with stable Hawkes processes.
problem Reproduce realistic market order flow dynamics.
method Deterministic C++ LOB simulator with Hawkes-driven stochastic order flow.
result Derives stability and ergodicity proofs for Hawkes models.
The paper proves the consistency and efficiency of a volatility estimator in noisy data.
problem Proving the consistency and efficiency of a volatility estimator in the presence of microstructure noise.
method Proves asymptotic normality using Central Limit Theorem for Fourier spot volatility estimator.
result Proves consistency and asymptotic efficiency of the Fourier spot volatility estimator in noisy data.
The purpose of this paper is to extend the Green-Naghdi-Rivlin balance of energy method to continua with microstructure. The key idea is to replace the group of Galilean transformations with the group of diffeomorphisms of the ambient space. A key advantage is that one obtains in a natural way all the needed balance la…
Develops a validated trading framework for market microstructure signals.
problem Overfitting and lookahead bias in algorithmic trading.
method Interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation, reinforcement learning, strict out-of-sample testing.
result Modest annualized returns with strong downside protection and market-neutral characteristics.
Paper optimizes material microstructures with limited data using probabilistic methods.
problem Optimizing material properties with uncertain process-structure-property links.
method Flexible probabilistic formulation, data-driven surrogate, active learning.
result Significant improvement in accuracy with small training data.
In this article we consider the volatility inference in the presence of both market microstructure noise and endogenous time. Estimators of the integrated volatility in such a setting are proposed, and their asymptotic properties are studied. Our proposed estimator is compared with the existing popular volatility estim…
Method detects jumps in high-frequency order prices using local minima.
problem Detecting jumps in high-frequency order prices with noisy data.
method Developed methods to estimate, locate and test for jumps using local minima of best ask quotes.
result Consistently estimated jump sizes and times, established asymptotic properties of tests, and demonstrated faster convergence rates.
The basic model for high-frequency data in finance is considered, where an efficient price process is observed under microstructure noise. It is shown that this nonparametric model is in Le Cam's sense asymptotically equivalent to a Gaussian shift experiment in terms of the square root of the volatility function σ. A…
The paper reviews recent statistical methods for financial markets, focusing on jumps, volatility, and microstructure noise.
problem Analyzing financial market data with statistical models.
method Review and development of statistical methods for financial markets, including jump tests, rough volatility, and microstructure noise.
result Established a minimax lower bound for volatility recovery and proposed new statistical methods for financial market analysis.
The paper models market dynamics using a limit order book system to explain slippage and inefficiency.
problem Inefficiency in matching markets due to structural liquidity constraints and slippage.
method Introduces a market microstructure framework with a latent preference state matrix and a dynamic discrete choice execution model.
result Persistent slippage and regional invariance of preference orderings are explained by liquidity thresholds.
Study of Polymarket's prediction market microstructure using tick-level order book data.
problem Understanding the microstructure of decentralized prediction markets.
method Analysis of a continuous tick-level order book feed and on-chain trade records.
result Trade direction inferred from Polymarket's public order-book feed disagrees with on-chain data in ~59% of cases.
We investigate the relative information efficiency of financial markets by measuring the entropy of the time series of high frequency data. Our tool to measure efficiency is the Shannon entropy, applied to 2-symbol and 3-symbol discretisations of the data. Analysing 1-minute and 5-minute price time series of 55 Exchang…
A new model captures irregularly spaced high-frequency prices and their volatility.
problem Modeling high-frequency prices with irregular spacing and market noise.
method Observation-driven model using Skellam distribution with time-varying volatility and smoothing splines.
result The model provides a good fit to IBM stock data and measures daily realized volatility.
Study applies market microstructure to Cuban informal currency market, finding market makers improve liquidity.
problem Understanding dynamics of informal currency markets.
method Modeling bid/ask intentions using Limit Order Book, applying Avellaneda-Stoikov model with Market Maker.
result Market Maker improves market quality and bid/ask dynamics.
We show that typical behaviors of market participants at the high frequency scale generate leverage effect and rough volatility. To do so, we build a simple microscopic model for the price of an asset based on Hawkes processes. We encode in this model some of the main features of market microstructure in the context of…
Quantitative finance has had a long tradition of a bottom-up approach to complex systems inference via multi-agent systems (MAS). These statistical tools are based on modelling agents trading via a centralised order book, in order to emulate complex and diverse market phenomena. These past financial models have all rel…
Study models market volatility with persistent and temporary impacts.
problem Microstructure of rough volatility models driven by Poisson measures.
method Existence and uniqueness of solutions for stochastic path-dependent Volterra equations.
result Volatility process converges to fractional Heston model with spikes.
Model simulates sparse order books in illiquid markets.
problem Inaccurate LOB models in illiquid markets.
method Inhomogeneous Poisson process for order arrivals and cancellations.
result Enhanced understanding of LOB dynamics in illiquid markets.