New model for disability insurance reserving handles delays in claim information.
problem Disability insurance claims are affected by long delays and adjudication processes.
method Proposes a new individual reserving model for real-time claim evolution.
result Shows that new reserves can be calculated as modifications of classic reserves.
New model for insurance states using Markov jump processes with non-countable state space.
problem Modeling insurance states with non-countable state spaces.
method Developed a new Thiele's differential equation for continuous time rehabilitation rates.
result Allows for consistent calculation of reserves in disability insurance.
Improved disability insurance model with collective health claims.
problem Enhance disability insurance model with collective health claims.
method Expand classic semi-Markov model with collective health claims, solve many-body problem using mean-field approach.
result Mean-field approach simplifies complex model into a transparent pricing method.
We consider a large, homogeneous portfolio of life or disability annuity policies. The policies are assumed to be independent conditional on an external stochastic process representing the economic-demographic environment. Using a conditional law of large numbers, we establish the connection between claims reserving an…
New models for insurance claims accounting for delays.
problem Delayed claims processing affects real-time policy development.
method Introducing transaction time models to describe multi-state life insurance.
result Explicit expressions for transaction time reserves derived.
The paper analyzes multivariate payments in multi-state life insurance using Markovian state processes.
problem Analyzing joint effects of life annuities and death benefits in a multi-state framework.
method Introduces multivariate present value of future payments, derives differential equations and moment generating functions, and focuses on pair-wise covariances.
result Derives Hattendorff type results for pair-wise covariances in a disability model.
A Longitudinal Attribute-Conditioned Neural Network (LANTERN) framework for modeling health-state transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal data.
problem Estimating long-term care transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal health data.
method A neural network that learns from individual health history, incorporates time elapsed, and conditions on demographic and socioeconomic attributes.
result Improves severe disability discrimination and maintains strong calibration.
Study aims to measure and mitigate biases in motor insurance pricing.
problem Ethical biases in motor insurance pricing that affect fairness and regulatory compliance.
method Statistical methodologies and data analysis to measure and mitigate biases.
result Developed tools to measure and mitigate ethical biases in motor insurance pricing.
Ebay uses forecasting and simulation to decide when to disable a vendor.
problem Determining the optimal time to disable a vendor to avoid customer loss.
method Data-driven approach involving multiplicative seasonality model, Monte Carlo simulation, and linear model.
result Identifies the best time to disable a vendor to minimize customer loss.
The International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health for Children and Youth (ICF-CY) is a scaffold for designating and systematizing data on functioning and disability. It offers a standard semantic and a theoretical foundation for the demarcation and extent of wellbeing and infirmity. The multidimen…
Proposes GLWB-LTC for enhanced life care annuities with dynamic withdrawal strategies and stochastic interest rates.
problem Improving life care annuity features and pricing methods.
method Introduces GLWB-LTC with dynamic withdrawal strategies and stochastic interest rates. Solves the stochastic control problem using a robust tree method.
result Optimal withdrawal strategies vary over time with policyholder's health status, highlighting the advantage of flexibility.
AI predicts dyslexia and dysgraphia in children.
problem Early detection and assessment of dyslexia and dysgraphia.
method Machine learning on datasets of children's handwriting and audio recordings.
result Preliminary model shows high performance in classifying dyslexic and dysgraphic children.
The paper develops a valuation framework for GLWB-LTC contracts with Levy dynamics and stochastic interest rates.
problem Valuation of GLWB-LTC contracts with financial guarantees, longevity protection, and health-contingent LTC payments.
method Coupling a recombining Hull-White trinomial tree with an IMEX finite difference scheme, incorporating a seven-state health model.
result Hybrid tree-IMEX method delivers stable long-maturity prices consistent with simulation benchmarks.
Variational inference is a general approach for approximating complex density functions, such as those arising in latent variable models, popular in machine learning. It has been applied to approximate the maximum likelihood estimator and to carry out Bayesian inference, however, quantification of uncertainty with vari…
Work in Counterfactual Explanations tends to focus on the principle of "the closest possible world" that identifies small changes leading to the desired outcome. In this paper we argue that while this approach might initially seem intuitively appealing it exhibits shortcomings not addressed in the current literature. F…
This paper describes and evaluates the use of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for path planning in support of smart mobility applications such as indoor and outdoor navigation applications, individualized wayfinding for people with disabilities (e.g., vision impairments, physical disabilities, etc.), path planni…
Study insurance pricing under correlation ambiguity without increasing prices or reducing utility.
problem Understanding the dependence structure between insurance and financial risks.
method Dynamic equilibrium analysis of insurance pricing with worst-case beliefs.
result Correlation ambiguity does not necessarily increase insurance prices or reduce insurers' utility.
Paper proves Pareto efficient insurance for multiple entities.
problem Optimizing insurance for multiple policyholders and insurers.
method Sum-minimization characterization and pairwise implementability analysis.
result Characterization of Pareto efficient insurance arrangements.
Study on systemic risk in European insurance sector, showing insurer connections during stress.
problem Understanding systemic risk connectedness in European insurance sector.
method Common connectedness framework applied to returns, volatility, value-at-risk, and expected shortfall.
result Insurers are a significant component of systemic risk connectedness, especially during stress episodes.
The paper examines how risk reduction and insurance choices interact under convex premium principles.
problem Interaction between self-protection and insurance demand under convex premium principles.
method Investigates optimal prevention efforts and insurance shares using distortion risk measures.
result Self-protection and insurance are complementary, but ex ante moral hazard can turn this into a substitution effect.
Parametric insurance offers better risk-sharing in high-risk settings than traditional indemnity insurance.
problem High-risk environments where traditional indemnity insurance is unaffordable or ineffective.
method Comparison of excess-of-loss indemnity insurance and parametric insurance within a mean-variance framework, considering fixed costs and binding budget constraints.
result Parametric insurance yields higher welfare for risk-averse individuals, especially when indemnity insurance is impractical.
The paper examines insurance market dynamics and optimal regulation.
problem Equilibrium outcomes in dynamic insurance markets.
method Analyzes three equilibrium outcomes: positive, zero, and market failure.
result Insurers may accept underwriting losses by investing profits, especially with negative correlations.
We consider an investor who wants to select her/his optimal consumption, investment and insurance policies. Motivated by new insurance products, we allow not only the financial marke but also the insurable loss to depend on the regime of the economy. The objective of the investor is to maximize her/his expected total d…
Optimal insurance contract limits insurer's risk exposure variance.
problem Designing an optimal insurance contract limiting insurer's risk exposure variance.
method Derive optimal policy semi-analytically, focusing on actuarially fair case.
result Expected coverage is larger for wealthier insured, indicating normal good.
Paper models demand and solvency for index insurance, combining traditional and measurable index-based coverage.
problem Reducing protection gaps for emerging risks.
method Develops a model for demand and solvency conditions, combining traditional and index-based insurance.
result Deduces a product that benefits from both traditional and index-based insurance approaches.
The aim of this paper is to propose an operational two-dimensional parametric adjustment for laws of maintenance in disability. The method suggested rests on splines in dimension 2; it is applied to a real data set, and the scale of reserving which results from it is compared with the scale of reference of the BCAC.
Two pension funds mutually insure against longevity risk.
problem Mutual insurance against systematic longevity risk for pension funds.
method Mathematical demonstration and market clearing condition.
result Insurance provides little benefit when fund preferences are similar, but can be beneficial when preferences vary significantly.
Reinsurance can help life insurers maintain higher capital guarantees without losing utility.
problem Decreasing capital guarantees in life insurance products.
method Dynamic investment-reinsurance optimization problem with simultaneous Value-at-Risk and no-short-selling constraints. Introduced guarantee-equivalent utility gain for comparison.
result Optimally managed reinsurance allows insurers to offer higher capital guarantees without reducing expected utility.
The study examines how formal index insurance compares to informal risk sharing in managing natural disasters.
problem The challenges of natural disasters and the effectiveness of index insurance in risk management.
method A three-strategy evolutionary game model to analyze the competitive relationship between formal index insurance, informal risk sharing, and non-insurance.
result Basis risk and loss ratio significantly impact the adoption rate of index insurance, with different strategies preferred under varying conditions.
This paper explores how insurance contracts can be traded in financial markets.
problem The exclusion of arbitrage in insurance contracts due to their non-tradability.
method Defining strategies on insurance portfolios and combining them with financial trading strategies.
result The existence of an insurance-finance-consistent probability, leading to the expected discounted cash-flows.
Paper analyzes strategic underreporting in competitive insurance markets.
problem Strategic underreporting by insureds in competitive insurance markets.
method Develops a dynamic insurance market model with two competing companies and a continuum of insureds, examines the interaction between strategic underreporting and competitive pricing under a Bonus-Malus System framework.
result Establishes the existence and uniqueness of the insureds' optimal reporting barrier and its dependence on BMS premiums; proves the existence of Nash equilibrium premium strategies.
Study of insurer games with model uncertainty in reinsurance and investment strategies.
problem Model uncertainty and competitive insurers' performance under worst-case scenarios.
method Formulated robust mean-field game for non-linear system, derived closed-form solutions.
result Relative concerns lead to new hedging terms in investment and reinsurance strategies.
The paper models insurance market dynamics under uncertainty and financial frictions.
problem Modeling insurer behavior under uncertainty and financial frictions.
method Dynamic equilibrium model of insurance market with competitive insurers maximizing shareholder value.
result Investment can lead to lower insurance prices and negative loadings under certain conditions.
Study of insurance market equilibria with risk-averse policyholders.
problem Analyzing optimal insurance contracts in a monopoly market with risk-averse policyholders.
method Modeling Stackelberg equilibria with a profit-maximizing insurer and a risk-averse policyholder.
result Equilibrium contracts exhibit a layer-type structure, providing full insurance over pessimistic loss layers and no coverage over optimistic ones.
Develops a Bonus-Malus model for cyber risk insurance to incentivize cybersecurity.
problem Lack of effective insurance strategies to incentivize cybersecurity.
method Proposes a Bonus-Malus model and a mathematical model with a numerical algorithm.
result Demonstrates how a Bonus-Malus system resolves moral hazard and benefits the insurer.
Study compares ruin probabilities under independence vs. dependence assumptions.
problem Underestimation of ruin probability when claims are dependent.
method Copulas for claim dependence analysis, sensitivity analysis.
result Dependent claims lead to underestimation of ruin probability.
Optimal insurance strategy for maximizing RDEU under various premium principles.
problem Maximizing a risk-averse individual's RDEU with insurance priced by a distortion-deviation principle.
method Proved necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal solution, considered ambiguity orders, and analyzed specific examples.
result Conditions for no insurance or deductible insurance to be optimal.
The paper calculates bonus values in complex insurance schemes.
problem Calculating bonus payments in multi-state with-profit life insurance.
method Combines financial risk simulation with insurance risk methods.
result Efficient numerical procedures for bonus calculation.
Study classifies liability insurance policies using machine learning.
problem Classifying liability insurance policies with or without claims.
method Used machine learning models like nearest neighbour and logistic regression on Actuarial Challenge dataset.
result Models accurately classified policies into claims and non-claims groups.
Study optimal investment-reinsurance strategies in equity-linked insurance products using Stackelberg game theory.
problem Optimizing investment and reinsurance strategies in equity-linked insurance products with capital guarantees.
method Modelled as a Stackelberg game where reinsurer acts as leader and insurer as follower, with general utility functions and power utility functions analyzed.
result Derive Stackelberg equilibrium for general utility functions and calculate it explicitly for power utility functions, finding reinsurer optimizes premium to incentivize maximal reinsurance purchase.
Study finds environmental liability insurance reduces industrial carbon emissions.
problem Reduction of industrial carbon emissions.
method Two-way fixed effect model using provincial (city) level panel data from 2010 to 2020.
result Environmental liability insurance reduces industrial carbon emissions at both direct and indirect levels, with varying effects.
Study finds farmers are willing to pay higher premiums for higher coverage in agricultural insurance.
problem Determining the demand factors and WTP for agricultural insurance.
method Conducted a survey of 200 farmers to analyze the impact of socio-demographic variables and premium on insurance purchase decisions.
result Farmers are willing to pay higher premiums for higher coverage in agricultural insurance.
Survey of extreme value modeling techniques for insurance.
problem Modeling of insurance industry's extreme events.
method Truncation, tempering, censoring, regression techniques.
result Adapted techniques for insurance applications.
The paper proposes a new method for comparing logistic regression models across different populations.
problem Comparing logistic regression models across sub-populations can lead to misleading results.
method Develops a cascading set of equivalence tests for logistic regression models, addressing coding, predictions, and overall accuracy.
result Equivalence testing incentivizes accurate inference and avoids perverse incentives from significance tests.
Develops workflow for synthetic insurance datasets.
problem Lack of realistic publicly available insurance datasets.
method Uses CTGAN neural network architecture to generate tabular data.
result Synthesized datasets evaluated positively in multiple aspects.
Extends insurance-finance arbitrage concept to include model uncertainty.
problem Evaluating hybrid insurance products in uncertain financial markets.
method Introduces robust asymptotic insurance-finance arbitrage and QP-evaluations. result No robust asymptotic insurance-finance arbitrage exists under certain conditions.
Study on cyber insurance viability using statistical models.
problem Exploring insurability of cyber risk and its factors.
method Regression models (GAMLSS, ordinal regressions) and utility modelling.
result Provides insights into insurability of cyber risk.
Under the Basel II standards, the Operational Risk (OpRisk) advanced measurement approach allows a provision for reduction of capital as a result of insurance mitigation of up to 20%. This paper studies the behaviour of different insurance policies in the context of capital reduction for a range of possible extreme los…