A new framework models multi-state events and biomarkers.
problem Limited representation of complex multi-state trajectories.
method General multi-state joint modeling framework.
result Accurate parameter recovery and personalized predictions.
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25 results for “multi-state”
In this paper we propose a multi-state model for the evaluation of the conversion option contract. The multi-state model is based on age-indexed semi-Markov chains that are able to reproduce many important aspects that influence the valuation of the option such as the duration problem, the time non-homogeneity and the …
The paper analyzes multivariate payments in multi-state life insurance using Markovian state processes.
problem Analyzing joint effects of life annuities and death benefits in a multi-state framework.
method Introduces multivariate present value of future payments, derives differential equations and moment generating functions, and focuses on pair-wise covariances.
result Derives Hattendorff type results for pair-wise covariances in a disability model.
Proposes a flexible neural model for multi-state survival analysis.
problem Limited applicability of Cox models for multi-state and competing events.
method Uses neural ordinary differential equations to solve Kolmogorov forward equations.
result Demonstrates state-of-the-art performance and interpretability.
New models for insurance claims accounting for delays.
problem Delayed claims processing affects real-time policy development.
method Introducing transaction time models to describe multi-state life insurance.
result Explicit expressions for transaction time reserves derived.
The paper calculates bonus values in complex insurance schemes.
problem Calculating bonus payments in multi-state with-profit life insurance.
method Combines financial risk simulation with insurance risk methods.
result Efficient numerical procedures for bonus calculation.
Proposes a new model to analyze mortgage delinquency transitions.
problem Analyzing mortgage delinquency transitions in a flexible yet identifiable way.
method Combines structured additive predictor with neural network for complex interactions, orthogonalising components for identifiability.
result The semi-structured model provides modest gains in discrimination compared to a structured model, especially in the early prediction spans.
Unified framework for fair pricing in long-term insurance products.
problem Unclear generalization of fair pricing methods to long-term products.
method Reformulate multi-state transition models as Poisson regression problems.
result Direct application of existing fair pricing methods to long-term insurance products.
Forward transition ratesmath.PR
The idea of forward rates stems from interest rate theory. It has natural connotations to transition rates in multi-state models. The generalization from the forward mortality rate in a survival model to multi-state models is non-trivial and several definitions have been proposed. We establish a theoretical framework f…
In this work, we consider the class of multi-state autoregressive processes that can be used to model non-stationary time-series of interest. In order to capture different autoregressive (AR) states underlying an observed time series, it is crucial to select the appropriate number of states. We propose a new model sele…
A deep learning framework for survival analysis combining piecewise exponential models.
problem Survival analysis with competing risks, multi-state modeling, and time-varying effects.
method Piecewise exponential models embedded in a neural network.
result Predicted Alzheimer's disease progression using tabular and 3D point cloud data.
Improves clustering fairness by learning fair clusters adaptively.
problem Fairness in deep clustering, especially for protected status variables.
method Formulates group-level fairness as ILP, integrates into discriminative deep clustering, refines learning algorithm.
result Consistently outperforms fair clustering algorithms on real-world datasets.
A Longitudinal Attribute-Conditioned Neural Network (LANTERN) framework for modeling health-state transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal data.
problem Estimating long-term care transition probabilities in irregular longitudinal health data.
method A neural network that learns from individual health history, incorporates time elapsed, and conditions on demographic and socioeconomic attributes.
result Improves severe disability discrimination and maintains strong calibration.
Study on stock trading model with uncertain market status, proving free boundaries and optimal strategies.
problem Optimal trading strategies in a stock market with uncertain market status.
method Free boundary problem, variational inequality system, degenerate operator, C^∞-smoothness.
result All four switching free boundaries are no-overlapping, monotonic, and C^∞-smooth, and their relative localities are completely determined.
Fair clustering under the disparate impact doctrine requires that population of each protected group should be approximately equal in every cluster. Previous work investigated a difficult-to-scale pre-processing step for -center and -median style algorithms for the special case of this problem when the number of …
We study the problem of determining risk-minimizing investment strategies for insurance payment processes in the presence of taxes and expenses. We consider the situation where taxes and expenses are paid continuously and symmetrically and introduce the concept of tax- and expense-modified risk-minimization. Risk-minim…
The paper reveals that baselines significantly impact RL algorithms' convergence.
problem Understanding the true impact of baselines on policy optimization.
method Theoretical analysis of bandit and RL problems, focusing on natural policy gradient and EXP3.
result Baselines can determine algorithm convergence, contradicting traditional optimization theory.
The study uses Bayesian Hidden Markov Models to predict cryptocurrency returns.
problem Predicting the volatility and trends of cryptocurrencies.
method Bayesian Hidden Markov Models with four states to capture different return characteristics.
result The NHHM model with four states outperforms other models in predicting cryptocurrency returns.
Selection of appropriate collective variables for enhancing sampling of molecular simulations remains an unsolved problem in computational biophysics. In particular, picking initial collective variables (CVs) is particularly challenging in higher dimensions. Which atomic coordinates or transforms there of from a list o…
Evidence suggests Rapid-Eye-Movement (REM) Sleep Behaviour Disorder (RBD) is an early predictor of Parkinson's disease. This study proposes a fully-automated framework for RBD detection consisting of automated sleep staging followed by RBD identification. Analysis was assessed using a limited polysomnography montage fr…
Complex contagion model explains financial fire sales through continuous asset prices.
problem Modeling financial fire sales with a continuum of asset prices.
method Developed a threshold model of continuous-state cascades using real values for asset prices.
result Discretization approach accurately replicates the distribution of defaulted banks and asset prices.
SiBBlInGS discovers interpretable building blocks across states in multi-way data.
problem Identifying interpretable units (Building Blocks) in multi-state, multi-way data.
method Graph-based dictionary learning approach for sparse BBs and temporal traces.
result Captures per-trial variability and state-specific vs. state-invariant components.
Deep Learning of Semi-Competing Risk Data via a New Neural Expectation-Maximization Algorithmstat.ML
New algorithm predicts lung cancer progression and mortality.
problem Predicting semi-competing risk outcomes in lung cancer.
method Neural Expectation-Maximization algorithm for multi-state outcomes.
result Estimates non-parametric baseline hazards and risk functions.
The paper models stochastic interest rates for life insurance using phase-type distributions.
problem Modeling stochastic interest rates in life insurance with matrix approach.
method Integrates piecewise deterministic interest rates into a Markov jump process framework.
result Explicit formulas for reserves and future payments can be derived.
Excited-state dynamics simulations are a powerful tool to investigate photo-induced reactions of molecules and materials and provide complementary information to experiments. Since the applicability of these simulation techniques is limited by the costs of the underlying electronic structure calculations, we develop an…