Study finds farmers are willing to pay higher premiums for higher coverage in agricultural insurance.
problem Determining the demand factors and WTP for agricultural insurance.
method Conducted a survey of 200 farmers to analyze the impact of socio-demographic variables and premium on insurance purchase decisions.
result Farmers are willing to pay higher premiums for higher coverage in agricultural insurance.
Project forecasts crop prices to help Indian farmers choose optimal crops for better ROI.
problem Indian farmers struggle to choose crops that fetch decent profits due to lack of scientific decision-making.
method Price forecasting to create an optimal portfolio of crops for better ROI.
result Data-driven decision-making for crop selection leads to higher estimated ROI.
Favorit strategy helps farmers mitigate market price fluctuations.
problem Mitigating adverse impact of price fluctuation on farmers.
method Analyzes historical price data to select optimal market timing for crops.
result Developed a strategy to reduce volatility risk for Indian farmers.
Researchers calibrate an adaptive Farmer-Joshi model to recover stylized facts in financial markets.
problem Recovering stylized facts in financial markets using the Farmer-Joshi model.
method Calibrated an adaptive Farmer-Joshi model using genetic and Nelder-Mead algorithms, incorporating agent adaptation.
result The adaptive model recovers additional stylized facts, including auto-correlations and kurtosis, compared to the original model.
The paper introduces ESE scores for farmers to assess climate change risks.
problem Assessing climate change risks in individual farmers' credit evaluations.
method Integrating ESG variables into joint liability models and using a mean-variance utility function.
result Optimal group sizes and individual-ESE score relationships under various climatic conditions.
Boosting algorithms predict financial vulnerability of farmers in Chile and Tunisia.
problem Predict financial vulnerability of farmers in Chile and Tunisia using environmental data.
method Interpretable boosting algorithms based on ridge-regularized generalized linear models.
result Interaction effects improve predictive power only when included in two-step boosting.
On the framework of the Linear Farmer's Model, we approach the indeterminacy of agents' behaviour by associating with each agent an unconditional probability for her to be active at each time step. We show that Pareto tailed returns can appear even if value investors are the only strategies on the market and give a pro…
Study models weather index insurance pricing by insurers and farmers, finding flexible pricing kernels boost profits.
problem Monopoly pricing of weather index insurance with risk and flexibility considerations.
method Bowley-type sequential game with insurer and farmer, using neural networks for farmer's payoff.
result Flexible pricing kernels increase insurer profits closer to indemnity insurance levels.
Study on quadratic L-functions using hyperelliptic curves and homology.
problem Understanding moments of families of quadratic L-functions.
method Homological stability theorem and computations of homology.
result Confirmations of Conrey-Farmer-Keating-Rubinstein-Snaith predictions for large prime powers.
Botswana's agricultural credit scheme is unsustainable and needs reform.
problem The current scheme is unsustainable and based on flawed actuarial principles.
method Proposes a new subsidy and premium rate setting method considering non-drought years.
result A sustainable agricultural credit guarantee scheme is recommended.
Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not…
The current economic crisis has provoked an active response from the interdisciplinary scientific community. As a result many papers suggesting what can be improved in understanding of the complex socio-economics systems were published. Some of the most prominent papers on the topic include (Bouchaud, 2009; Farmer and …
Study validates Lillo-Mike-Farmer model predicting financial market long-range correlations.
problem Quantifying long-range correlations in financial markets.
method Analyzed nine years of market data to classify traders as order-splitting or random, measured metaorder-length distributions, and compared to LMF model predictions.
result Agreement between LMF model predictions and actual data, validating the model.
Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the 21st century. We address the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision-making framework. Specifically, we introduce a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting c…
The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the diffusive behavior of stock prices at the transaction level. However, the volatility (defined by absolute return) in the MF…
This study generalizes an econophysics model to account for trader heterogeneity, finding robust power-law exponents but sensitive prefactors.
problem The original Lillo-Mike-Farmer model assumed homogeneity in traders' order-splitting strategies, which this study generalizes.
method The study proposes a generalised Lillo-Mike-Farmer model and solves it exactly without heuristic assumptions.
result The power-law exponent in the order-sign ACF is robust for arbitrary heterogeneous intensity distributions, but the prefactor is sensitive to heterogeneity.
This paper explains how predictable order flow can lead to Brownian motion in financial prices.
problem Why financial prices exhibit Brownian motion despite predictable order flow.
method Generalized Lillo-Mike-Farmer model to nonlinear price-impact dynamics, mapping to Lévy-walk model.
result Price dynamics remain diffusive under the square-root law, even with persistent order flow.
Deep learning predicts crop prices with improved accuracy.
problem Accurate prediction of agricultural crop prices for better decision-making.
method Innovative deep learning approach using GNNs and CNN models.
result At least 20% better performance than previous literature.
The effects of weather on agriculture in recent years have become a major global concern. Hence, the need for an effective weather risk management tool (i.e., weather derivatives) that can hedge crop yields against weather uncertainties. However, most smallholder farmers and agricultural stakeholders are unwilling to p…
Researchers validate LMF order-splitting theory using public JSE data.
problem Lack of reproducibility and cross-market validation of LMF theory due to proprietary data.
method Synthetic metaorder reconstruction using publicly available JSE data.
result LMF theory validated using JSE data for 100 largest stocks.
Stock prices are observed to be random walks in time despite a strong, long term memory in the signs of trades (buys or sells). Lillo and Farmer have recently suggested that these correlations are compensated by opposite long ranged fluctuations in liquidity, with an otherwise permanent market impact, challenging the s…
We study optimal liquidation of a trading position (so-called block order or meta-order) in a market with a linear temporary price impact (Kyle, 1985). We endogenize the pressure to liquidate by introducing a downward drift in the unaffected asset price while simultaneously ruling out short sales. In this setting the l…
Modeling dynamic groundwater markets with price formation and trading strategies.
problem Understanding competitive effects in environmental markets with groundwater banking.
method Stochastic models and game theory with machine learning algorithms.
result Sub-game perfect Nash equilibria characterized by groundwater price processes.
New model predicts banana disease risk from climate data.
problem Managing Black Sigatoka disease under climate change.
method Latent Neural ODEs to model infection dynamics.
result Superior generalization performance up to one month ahead.
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
problem Financial risk from climate-induced agricultural price volatility.
method Historical and future climate projections, EGARCH and SARIMAX models, Black-Scholes framework.
result Improved agricultural risk modeling and insurance mechanisms.
Robotic weed control has seen increased research of late with its potential for boosting productivity in agriculture. Majority of works focus on developing robotics for croplands, ignoring the weed management problems facing rangeland stock farmers. Perhaps the greatest obstacle to widespread uptake of robotic weed con…
Social and economic systems are complex adaptive systems, in which heterogenous agents interact and evolve in a self-organized manner, and macroscopic laws emerge from microscopic properties. To understand the behaviors of complex systems, computational experiments based on physical and mathematical models provide a us…
Revisiting Trade-sign Long-memory and Square-root Law price impact
problem Revisiting the Lillo-Mike-Farmer (LMF) theory and the square-root law (SQRL) of meta-order impact
method Using a coupled discrete reaction-diffusion formulation
result Long-memory of trade signs and square-root law of meta-order impact
Revisits elastic string model to explain interest rate correlations.
problem Describing the forward interest rate curve using an elastic string model.
method Reinterprets Baaquie and Bouchaud's (2004) model to highlight market forces.
result Model accurately reproduces FRC correlation structure with minimal parameters.
A CNN-based method detects and counts corn kernels from images.
problem Manual counting of corn kernels is labor-intensive and prone to error.
method Sliding window approach with CNN for detection and NMS for overlapping removal.
result The method successfully detects and counts kernels with low error.
Conformal prediction ensures reliable weed spraying guarantees.
problem Lack of trust in deep learning-based precision weeding systems.
method Conformal prediction for providing trustworthy guarantees on black-box models.
result Formal guarantees on spraying at least 90% of weeds.
A reliable and accurate forecasting model for crop yields is of crucial importance for efficient decision-making process in the agricultural sector. However, due to weather extremes and uncertainties, most forecasting models for crop yield are not reliable and accurate. For measuring the uncertainty and obtaining furth…
In this comment we discuss the problem of reconciling the linear efficiency of price returns with the long-memory of supply and demand. We present new evidence that shows that efficiency is maintained by a liquidity imbalance that co-moves with the imbalance of buyer vs. seller initiated transactions. For example, duri…
We respond to the issues discussed by Farmer and Lillo (FL) related to our proposed approach to understanding the origin of power-law distributions in stock price fluctuations. First, we extend our previous analysis to 1000 US stocks and perform a new estimation of market impact that accounts for splitting of large ord…
Model predicts one-year NDVI for Four Corners region.
problem Long-term forecasting of vegetation conditions using climate attributes.
method Two-phase machine learning model using historical climate data.
result Open-source tools outperform alternative methods for NDVI forecasts.
Study confirms the square-root law in price impact across Tokyo stocks.
problem The debate on the strict universality of the square-root law in price impact.
method Comprehensive survey of all trading accounts on the Tokyo Stock Exchange over 8 years.
result The exponent δ is equal to 1/2 for all stocks within statistical errors.
First European crop map created using satellite data.
problem Need for detailed parcel-level crop type mapping for EU.
method Used Sentinel-1 radar observations and LUCAS in-situ data.
result 80.3% overall accuracy for 19 crop types, highest for rape and turnip rape.
TinyBayes detects crop diseases from images on edge devices with high accuracy and minimal resources.
problem Automated disease detection for cocoa crops in resource-constrained settings.
method Combines YOLOv8-Nano for lesion localisation, MobileNetV3-Small for feature extraction, and Jacobi prior for Bayesian classification.
result Achieves 78.7% accuracy on Amini Cocoa Contamination Challenge dataset with 9.5 MB model size and 150 ms inference time.
Study presents a low-cost local motion planner for vineyard navigation.
problem Autonomous navigation in vineyards with limited resources.
method RGB-D camera, dual layer control algorithm, deep learning synergy.
result Robust motion planning for vineyard navigation achieved.
In order to face the expected increasing demand of energy crops without creating conflicts of land occupation sustainability, farmers need to find reliable alternatives in marginal agricultural areas where the production of food hardly ever is economically and environmentally sustainable. The purpose of this work was t…
Quantitative analysis of order-splitting behavior in Japanese stock market.
problem Understanding and quantifying the order-splitting behavior of traders in the Japanese stock market.
method Analysis of a large dataset of trading accounts over nine years, clustering traders into order-splitting and random traders, and applying statistical methods to analyze metaorder length and sign correlation.
result The metaorder length distribution follows power laws with exponent α, and the sign correlation exponent γ is approximately α-1, supporting the LMF model.