Simple methods combine statistical tests for out-of-distribution detection.
problem Detecting data points not following the training distribution.
method Combining classical parametric tests (Rao's score test) and a typicality test.
result Combining Fisher's method of test statistics improves out-of-distribution detection accuracy.
Proposes a learned Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound for unknown measurement models.
problem Computing the Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound requires full knowledge of priors and measurement distributions.
method Introduces a Physics-encoded score neural network to learn priors and measurements.
result Demonstrates improved sample complexity and interpretability through domain knowledge incorporation.
This work introduces a new data-driven estimator for the Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound using score matching.
problem Benchmarking the performance of statistical estimators and providing a principled metric for system design and optimization.
method Score matching technique to estimate the Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound from training data.
result Developed novel non-asymptotic bounds on the score matching error and the Bayesian CRB estimator.
DSM on manifolds removes singularities and computes small-noise expansions.
problem DSM on manifolds with singular noise.
method Rao-Blackwellized score matching, nearest-point projection, intrinsic Riemannian score.
result Canonical target equals intrinsic Riemannian score up to a small correction.
This note improves correlation stress tests using geodesic distance.
problem Improving financial risk management through better covariance stress tests.
method Proposes a new geometrically invariant definition of correlation stress tests.
result Demonstrates a submanifold approach to stress testing covariance matrices.
Study on conditions for achieving optimal robustness in statistical estimators.
problem Achieving the optimal robustness of estimators in statistical models.
method Developed a Wasserstein analogue of the Cramer-Rao inequality and investigated conditions for achieving the Wasserstein-Cramer-Rao lower bound.
result Conditions for the existence of asymptotically efficient estimators in one-parameter models and location-scale families.
Adaptive sampling improves graph diffusion models by maintaining uniform information speed.
problem Standard diffusion models overlook non-homogeneous dynamics on complex manifolds.
method Information-geometric framework using Fisher-Rao metric and Drift Variation Score (DVS).
result DVS solver ensures uniform rate of distributional change, improving structural fidelity and efficiency.
A new method for state estimation in state-space models using incomplete data.
problem State estimation in nonlinear state-space models with incomplete observations.
method Statistical analysis of incomplete observations, score function, observed information matrices, EM-gradient-particle filtering.
result Maximum likelihood estimation of state-vector with explicit form of observed information matrix.
New methods for CI testing under model misspecification.
problem Challenges in CI testing with misspecified models.
method Proposes new approximations and upper bounds for testing errors of regression-based CI tests.
result Introduces the Rao-Blackwellized Predictor Test (RBPT) robust against misspecified inductive biases.
Geometrically refines Cramér-Rao bound using extrinsic manifold curvature.
problem Improving estimator efficiency in non-asymptotic settings.
method Incorporates curvature-aware corrections based on extrinsic geometry of statistical model manifold.
result Meaningful tightening of estimator variance bounds.
The paper improves confidence set construction for statistical inference.
problem Constructing reliable confidence sets in statistical inference.
method Establishes a finite-sample bound using effective dimension and generalized self-concordance.
result Developed a confidence set adapted to optimization landscapes.
New method uses weighted SDEs to improve sampling from complex distributions.
problem Sampling from highly non-log-concave distributions.
method Introduces weighted stochastic differential equations to augment diffusion-based samplers.
result Demonstrates improved exploration of nonconvex or multimodal landscapes.
Develops a real-analytic embedding for diffeomorphisms of the line, linking to Fisher-Rao geometry.
problem Embedding diffeomorphisms of the line in a geometric framework.
method Real-analytic embedding, Lp Fisher-Rao geometry, Schwarzian curvature. result Establishes a connection between diffeomorphisms and Fisher-Rao geometry, providing explicit geodesics and connections.
The report studies ranking from pairwise comparisons in graphs, achieving optimal error bounds and proposing efficient algorithms.
problem Ranking items from pairwise comparisons in general graphs and graphs with locality.
method Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and preconditioned gradient descent for general graphs; divide-and-conquer algorithms for graphs with locality.
result MLE achieves optimal error bounds in general graphs and identifies conditions for locality.
Proofs Fisher-Rao distance on Gaussian covariance manifold.
problem Proving Fisher-Rao distance on Gaussian covariance manifold.
method Basic Riemannian geometry.
result Proof of Fisher-Rao distance on covariance cone.
The article explains Rao distances and conformal mappings for 3D objects.
problem Calculating distances and preserving angles in 3D objects.
method Proposed constructions of distances and angle-preserving mappings.
result Application to virtual tourism and line integrals in complex planes.
The Fisher-Rao geometry is applied to elliptical distributions for optimization and classification.
problem Optimizing and classifying covariance matrices using geometric tools.
method Riemannian optimization and intrinsic Cramér-Rao bounds.
result Geometric tools enhance covariance matrix estimation and classification.
The paper generalizes Bayesian Cramér-Rao inequality using information geometry of relative α-entropy.
problem Establishing a lower bound for the variance of an unbiased estimator for the α-escort distribution.
method Proposes a general Riemannian metric based on relative α-entropy to derive a generalized Bayesian Cramér-Rao inequality.
result Establishes a lower bound for the variance of an unbiased estimator for the α-escort distribution.
Study on geometry of Dirichlet distributions using Fisher-Rao metric.
problem Understanding the geometry of Dirichlet distributions.
method Analysis of Fisher-Rao metric on Dirichlet distribution parameter space.
result Geodesic completeness and negative sectional curvature of the space.
Paper formulates particle flow using variational inference and Fisher-Rao gradient flow.
problem Estimating posterior densities in probabilistic models.
method Variational formulation of particle flow, Fisher-Rao gradient flow, Gaussian and Gaussian mixture approximations.
result Gaussian and Gaussian mixture approximations of Fisher-Rao particle flow reduce to Exact Daum and Huang particle flow under linear Gaussian assumptions.
Survey on closed-form Fisher-Rao distance expressions.
problem Finding closed-form expressions for Fisher-Rao distance.
method Collect and present examples of closed-form expressions for Fisher-Rao distance of discrete and continuous distributions.
result Presentation of closed-form expressions for Fisher-Rao distance of various distributions.
New clustering method reduces data redundancy for better summaries.
problem Redundancies in data summaries limit their effectiveness in large datasets.
method Khatri-Rao clustering extends centroid-based clustering to produce more succinct summaries.
result Khatri-Rao k-Means and deep clustering frameworks produce more succinct summaries with similar accuracy.
Kernel-Gradient Drifting improves generative modeling for non-Euclidean data.
problem Challenges in generative modeling for non-Euclidean data.
method Replaces Euclidean displacement with kernel-induced directions, exposing score-based structure.
result Kernel-gradient drifting enables state-of-the-art one-step generation for non-Euclidean data.
Unified score and distance-based GoF tests for model adequacy.
problem Difficulty in extending score-based GoF tests to nonparametric alternatives.
method Introducing semiparametric kernelized Stein discrepancy (SKSD) test.
result SKSD test is computationally efficient and universally consistent.
Paper explores Fisher-Rao gradient flows and their kernel approximations.
problem Understanding and analyzing approximations of Fisher-Rao gradient flows.
method Rigorous investigation of Fisher-Rao and Wasserstein type gradient flows, focusing on kernel approximations.
result Proves evolutionary Γ-convergence for kernel-approximated Fisher-Rao flows, providing theoretical guarantees.
A new estimator improves training of probabilistic models with latent Gaussian variables.
problem Improving gradient estimation for models with latent Gaussian variables.
method Rao-Blackwellised Reparameterisation Gradients (R2-G2)
result R2-G2 consistently yields better performance in models with multiple applications of the reparameterisation trick.
Cosine schedule is optimal for discrete diffusion models.
problem Choosing the best discretization schedule for diffusion models.
method Optimized using Fisher-Rao geometry.
result Cosine schedule is Fisher-Rao optimal.
The paper proposes a new method to approximate Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao flows using Monte Carlo techniques.
problem Sampling from probability distributions and minimizing Kullback-Leibler divergence.
method Sequential Monte Carlo approximations of Wasserstein-Fisher-Rao gradient flows.
result The proposed method outperforms other Monte Carlo algorithms in certain conditions.
This study describes the Fisher-Rao metric on Gaussian measures in infinite-dimensional spaces.
problem Understanding the Fisher-Rao metric in infinite-dimensional Gaussian settings.
method Explicit description and generalization of finite-dimensional quantities to infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces.
result The Fisher-Rao metric and related geometric quantities generalize from finite to infinite dimensions.
New method for natural policy gradients converges linearly.
problem Improving natural policy gradient methods for better convergence.
method Fisher-Rao gradient flow applied to state-action distributions.
result Linear convergence rate with geometry-dependent factor.
Poyiadjis et al. (2011) show how particle methods can be used to estimate both the score and the observed information matrix for state space models. These methods either suffer from a computational cost that is quadratic in the number of particles, or produce estimates whose variance increases quadratically with the am…
New test assesses probabilistic model calibration without expensive approximations.
problem Assessing calibration of probabilistic models with scores.
method Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy (KCCSD) test using new score-based kernels.
result Control over type-I error with improved scalability and efficiency.
Stein transport improves Bayesian inference with faster convergence and reduced variance.
problem Efficiently approximating posterior distributions in Bayesian inference.
method A novel Bayesian inference method using Stein transport, which pushes particles along a curve of tempered distributions.
result Stein transport reaches posterior approximations faster and more accurately than Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD).
New theory of sensitivity for unbiased estimators using Wasserstein geometry.
problem Estimating the instability of estimators under small perturbations.
method Developed a new theory based on Wasserstein geometry, analogous to classical Cramér-Rao theory.
result Wasserstein-Cramér-Rao lower bound for sensitivity of unbiased estimators.
Study of generalized Csiszár divergences and their application to Cramér-Rao bounds.
problem Deriving lower bounds for estimator variance using generalized divergences.
method Applied Eguchi's theory to derive Fisher information metric and dual affine connections.
result More widely applicable Cramér-Rao inequality for escort distributions.
On a closed manifold of dimension greater than one, every smooth weak Riemannian metric on the space of smooth positive probability densities, that is invariant under the action of the diffeomorphism group, is a multiple of the Fisher--Rao metric.
Improved hypothesis testing and change-point detection using diffusion-based methods.
problem Limited power of score-based hypothesis tests and change-point detection.
method Extending score-based Fisher divergence to diffusion-divergence by multiplying score functions with a matrix-valued function or weight matrix.
result Theoretical quantification and demonstration of optimal performance of diffusion-based algorithms.
Paper extends Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound with geometric considerations.
problem Estimation of covariance matrices with geometric structures.
method Intrinsic Bayesian Cramér-Rao bound with Riemannian geometry.
result Performance bounds for covariance matrix estimation.
This paper proposes a new differential privacy definition using Rao distance.
problem Improving differential privacy definitions for better sequential composition.
method Using Rao distance instead of divergences of densities to define privacy.
result Proposed definition shares interpretation with previous definitions but improves sequential composition.
The paper refines classical covariance asymptotics using geometric information geometry.
problem Deviation of finite-sample behavior from classical predictions in curved models.
method Develops a curvature-aware refinement by viewing parametric families as Riemannian manifolds with Fisher-Rao metric.
result Derives an \(n^{-2}\) correction to the leading \(n^{-1}I(θ)^{-1}\) covariance term for score-root estimators.
Two new methods score stress test scenarios for risk managers.
problem Comparing and evaluating stress test scenarios for risk managers.
method Inspired by Archer-Mouy-Selmi, two methodologies for scoring stress test scenarios.
result New methods can compare and evaluate stress test scenarios.
Model selection for time series forecasting can be biased by the distribution of scores.
problem Model selection for probabilistic forecasting on time series data.
method Using proper scoring rules to aggregate scores across multiple time series.
result The mean score is immune to the skewness of the score distribution.
Novel method uses Bayesian filters and PCRLB for state estimation of option prices.
problem Estimating unobserved latent variables from option prices.
method Posterior Cramer-Rao Lower Bound (PCRLB) based adaptive state estimation using various Bayesian filters.
result Proposed method outperforms individual filters and improves forecasting.
This paper studies the Fisher-Rao geometry on the parameter space of beta distributions. We derive the geodesic equations and the sectional curvature, and prove that it is negative. This leads to uniqueness for the Riemannian centroid in that space. We use this Riemannian structure to study canonical moments, an intrin…
New methods for scoring function decomposition improve forecast evaluation.
problem Improving forecast evaluation and understanding forecast components.
method Linear recalibration of forecasts for miscalibration, discrimination, and uncertainty.
result Enhanced statistical power and deeper insights into forecast components.
The paper improves PCS approximation for ranking and selection under limited simulation budgets.
problem Improving finite sample performance in Ranking and Selection.
method Develops a Bahadur-Rao type expansion for PCS, proposes a novel FCBA policy.
result FCBA policy achieves superior PCS performance compared to traditional methods.
Binary testing for softmax models requires many samples, similar to leverage score models.
problem Binary hypothesis testing for softmax models and leverage score models.
method Analyzing sample complexity and drawing analogies between models.
result Sample complexity is asymptotically \(O(ε^{-2})\), where \(ε\) is the distance between model parameters.
SRNF framework extends surface distance to Lipschitz surfaces.
problem Defining a distance metric for unparametrized surfaces.
method Square Root Normal Fields (SRNF) and Wasserstein Fisher Rao (WFR) metric.
result SRNF distance on Lipschitz surfaces is equivalent to WFR metric.