Polymarket users exploit mispriced assets for profit.
problem Arbitrage opportunities in prediction markets.
method Empirical analysis using on-chain historical order book data.
result 40 million USD of profit extracted from arbitrage opportunities.
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48 results for “Polymarket data”
Study of Polymarket's prediction market microstructure using tick-level order book data.
problem Understanding the microstructure of decentralized prediction markets.
method Analysis of a continuous tick-level order book feed and on-chain trade records.
result Trade direction inferred from Polymarket's public order-book feed disagrees with on-chain data in ~59% of cases.
This paper analyzes arbitrage opportunities in Polymarket's NBA markets.
problem Underexplored market microstructure and high-frequency pricing efficiency in decentralized prediction markets.
method Systematic empirical analysis of algorithmic arbitrage using over 75 million limit order book snapshots.
result Microstructural efficiency is profound, with single-market anomalies rare and combinatorial inefficiencies more frequent.
This study examines non-retail trading on Polymarket, revealing unique behavior patterns and structural limitations.
problem Lack of address-level quote-lifecycle data in Polymarket prediction markets.
method Empirical analysis of 13 million order-filled events using DBSCAN clustering on a six-feature fill-side vector.
result Non-retail behavior is uni-modal, contradicting previous archetypal hypotheses.
Polymarket-v1 Database tracks 1.2B trades across 1.3M markets with 100% ground-truth direction.
problem Lack of ground-truth data in prediction markets archives.
method Ground-truth archive of 1.2B trades from Polymarket's CTF Exchange.
result Ground-truth data reveals systematic errors in microstructure metrics.
Study evaluates information leakage in Polymarket markets, finding limited applicability and resolution ambiguity.
problem Limited applicability of ILS-dl framework across Polymarket markets.
method Scaling from single-case to population-scale evaluation using ILS-dl framework.
result Only 0.7% of candidate markets yield computable ILS-dl values, and resolution semantics are the main obstacle.
Prediction markets can be manipulated by traders who can move contract settlements, harming price discovery.
problem Manipulation of settlement times in prediction markets leads to unfair wealth transfer and harms price discovery.
method Developed a model showing how settlement manipulation transfers wealth and harms price discovery, and observed real-world effects on Polymarket's Bitcoin contract.
result Manipulators capture significant profits from retail traders, especially when settlement times are short.
PolySwarm uses a swarm of LLMs to predict and arbitrage prediction markets.
problem Real-time prediction market trading and latency arbitrage inefficiencies.
method PolySwarm employs a swarm of 50 diverse LLMs, Bayesian combination, and risk-controlled execution.
result Swarm aggregation outperforms single-model baselines in prediction tasks.
Develops a new framework for perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
problem Lack of effective risk management in perpetual futures on binary prediction markets.
method PIRAP framework with six components: index estimator, margin sizing, leverage, funding rule, halt protocol, and eligibility framework.
result Mixed results from empirical evaluation, with some pre-registered floors passing and others failing.
Do Prediction Markets Match Option Prices? Bitcoin Threshold Evidence from Binance and Polymarketq-fin.TR
Prediction markets and crypto options show persistent pricing gaps.
problem Comparing prediction markets and crypto options for identical payoffs.
method Comparing Polymarket Yes prices with Binance call option prices.
result Mean pricing gap of 5.6 percentage points across 214 hourly observations.
Empirical Evaluation of Deadline-Resolved Information Leakage on Documented Polymarket Insider Casesq-fin.TR
Paper evaluates deadline-ILS on insider trading contracts, finding it distinguishes signals from noise.
problem Deadlines in insider trading contracts and information leakage detection.
method Empirical evaluation using FFIC dataset, hazard-rate estimation, cross-market wallet analysis.
result Deadline-ILS distinguishes signal from proxy artefact, with a significant shift in magnitude.
Unified kernel for prediction markets reduces belief variance forecast error.
problem Lack of standardized tools for quoting and hedging belief risk in prediction markets.
method Logit jump-diffusion model with risk-neutral drift, calibration pipeline, and coherent derivative layer.
result Model reduces forecast error compared to diffusion-only and probability-space baselines.
Three methods detect informed trading on prediction markets, each focusing on different aspects.
problem Detecting informed trading in decentralized prediction markets.
method Composite screen, event-level sign-randomization test, and Information Leakage Score (ILS) framework.
result Different methods detect informed trading on prediction markets, each focusing on different aspects.
This study reviews decentralized prediction markets, identifying key design variants and open problems.
problem Designing and implementing decentralized prediction markets with desirable properties.
method Modular workflow comprising eight stages: infrastructure, market topic, share structure, pricing, market initialization, trading, resolution, settlement, and archiving. Analysis of design variants and trade-offs.
result Identification of open problems for researchers in the field of decentralized prediction markets.
Scores political leanings in Web3 betting markets.
problem Understanding political motivations in decentralized prediction markets.
method Constructing PBLS from Polymarket data, analyzing 15k addresses, 4k events, 8k markets.
result Validated PBLS through internal and external comparisons, revealing political and profit motives.
PolyBench: Benchmarking LLM Forecasting and Trading Capabilities on Live Prediction Market Dataq-fin.CP
PolyBench benchmarks LLMs on real market data, revealing significant performance gaps.
problem Benchmarking LLMs for real-world event prediction from live market signals.
method Multimodal benchmark derived from Polymarket, evaluating 7 LLMs under identical market states.
result Only two models achieve positive financial returns, highlighting the gap between fluency and probabilistic reasoning.
LiveTradeBench evaluates LLMs in live trading environments.
problem Static benchmarks fail to assess real-world trading ability.
method Live data streaming, portfolio management abstraction, multi-market evaluation.
result LLMs show distinct portfolio styles and adapt to live signals.
Foresight Arena benchmarks AI forecasting on real-world markets, isolating predictive edge.
problem Evaluating AI forecasting ability in real-world markets is challenging due to overfitting, centralized trust, and conflated metrics.
method Permissionless, on-chain benchmark using probabilistic forecasts, commit-reveal protocol, and smart contracts.
result Demonstrates the need for 350 predictions to reliably distinguish agents of different skill levels.
This paper explores BTC-denominated prediction markets to avoid stablecoin opportunity costs.
problem Opportunity costs and loss of BTC exposure when converting to stablecoins.
method Analyzes three methods of liquidity provision: cross-market making, automated market making, and DeFi redirection.
result Cross-market making provides the best user risk profile but requires active liquidity.
StakeBench evaluates language understanding by linking comments to market commitments, improving model alignment with real-world outcomes.
problem Existing financial NLP benchmarks measure perceived language rather than market commitments.
method StakeBench uses observable market behavior to supervise models, testing their ability to detect commitments, identify sides, and project odds.
result Models partially recover position-side signals but struggle with later tasks, highlighting structural failures.
New approach treats coordination as an architectural layer to improve LLM-based multi-agent systems.
problem Coordination defects lead to high failure rates in LLM-based multi-agent systems.
method Treats coordination as a configurable architectural layer separable from agent logic and information access.
result Configurations leave distinguishable signatures, enabling architectural reasoning and Pareto frontiers.
ForesightFlow detects informed trading on prediction markets using an information leakage score.
problem Detecting informed trading on decentralized prediction markets.
method Developed an Information Leakage Score (ILS) framework to quantify the fraction of terminal information move priced in before public news events.
result The score connects label generation to proper-scoring-rule literature and reveals systematic biases in insider trading documentation.
Big data sets must be carefully partitioned into statistically similar data subsets that can be used as representative samples for big data analysis tasks. In this paper, we propose the random sample partition (RSP) data model to represent a big data set as a set of non-overlapping data subsets, called RSP data blocks,…
Prevents sensitive data generation in diffusion models using labeled and unlabeled data.
problem Generating sensitive data in diffusion models using unlabeled data.
method Positive-Unlabeled Diffusion Models, approximating ELBO with labeled and unlabeled data.
result Prevents the generation of sensitive data without compromising image quality.
Study reveals Data Shapley's inconsistent performance in data selection tasks.
problem Inconsistency of Data Shapley's performance in data selection across different settings.
method Hypothesis testing framework and identification of utility functions.
result Data Shapley's performance is no better than random selection without specific constraints.
PRRO generates synthetic tabular data that improves SL performance and class distribution.
problem Low SL utility of synthetic data due to class imbalance and overlooked data relationships.
method Data pruning and column reordering to optimize SL utility.
result Synthetic data generated with PRRO enhances predictive performance and class distribution.
Defines data science as a natural ecosystem with challenges and missions.
problem Challenges and missions in data science due to 5D complexities and data life cycle phases.
method Systemic and data-centric view of data science as a fusion of data universe and its challenges, formalizing a general-purpose architecture.
result Essential data science as a natural ecosystem integrating specific disciplines and high-impact applications.
Differences in data size per class, also known as imbalanced data distribution, have become a common problem affecting data quality. Big Data scenarios pose a new challenge to traditional imbalanced classification algorithms, since they are not prepared to work with such amount of data. Split data strategies and lack o…
Synthetic data enhances analytics but requires careful volume management.
problem Accuracy of statistical methods on synthetic data vs. raw data.
method Synthetic Data Generation for Analytics framework using tabular diffusion models.
result Error rate decreases with more synthetic data but may stabilize or increase.
New test ensures quality of shared data in machine learning.
problem Ensuring quality of external data in machine learning tasks.
method Distribution-free two-sample testing procedures grounded in conformal outlier detection.
result Identifies valuable external data agents for model personalization.
Differential privacy allows quantifying privacy loss resulting from accessing sensitive personal data. Repeated accesses to underlying data incur increasing loss. Releasing data as privacy-preserving synthetic data would avoid this limitation, but would leave open the problem of designing what kind of synthetic data. W…
Paper creates fair synthetic data ensuring equal predictions across sensitive attributes.
problem Ensuring fair predictions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data.
method Equalizing target probability distributions across sensitive attributes in synthetic data generation.
result Synthetic data provides strong fair predictions, equal across all thresholds.
DPA preserves data distribution in reduced dimensions.
problem Loss of data distribution in dimension reduction.
method DPA combines encoder and decoder to match data distribution.
result DPA successfully reconstructs data distribution.
Efficient synthetic data generation improves model performance on tabular data.
problem Improving model robustness and performance with scarce or low-quality data.
method Hardness characterization to identify high-value training points, generating synthetic data only from these points.
result Synthetic data generated from hardest points outperforms non-targeted methods on tabular datasets.
For most problems in science and engineering we can obtain data sets that describe the observed system from various perspectives and record the behavior of its individual components. Heterogeneous data sets can be collectively mined by data fusion. Fusion can focus on a specific target relation and exploit directly ass…
DAERNN models censored data using neural networks with data augmentation.
problem Handling censored data in expectile regression.
method Data augmentation based Expectile Regression Neural Networks (ERNNs).
result DAERNN outperforms existing censored ERNNs methods and achieves comparable predictive performance to fully observed data.
Data preprocessing techniques are devoted to correct or alleviate errors in data. Discretization and feature selection are two of the most extended data preprocessing techniques. Although we can find many proposals for static Big Data preprocessing, there is little research devoted to the continuous Big Data problem. A…
Data stream classification methods demonstrate promising performance on a single data stream by exploring the cohesion in the data stream. However, multiple data streams that involve several correlated data streams are common in many practical scenarios, which can be viewed as multi-task data streams. Instead of handli…
Data collection is a major bottleneck in machine learning and an active research topic in multiple communities. There are largely two reasons data collection has recently become a critical issue. First, as machine learning is becoming more widely-used, we are seeing new applications that do not necessarily have enough …
This paper quantifies uncertainty in Data Shapley using statistical inference.
problem Uncertainty in data valuation due to dynamic data distribution.
method Established relationship with U-statistics and quantified uncertainty using statistical inference.
result Confidence intervals for Data Shapley estimations are provided.
DCoM uses deep neural networks to detect semantic data types from raw column values.
problem Detecting semantic data types from dirty and unseen data.
method DCoM employs multi-input NLP-based deep neural networks trained on 686,765 data columns.
result DCoM outperforms existing methods significantly on 78 different semantic data types.
Causal inference from observational data is the goal of many data analyses in the health and social sciences. However, academic statistics has often frowned upon data analyses with a causal objective. The introduction of the term "data science" provides a historic opportunity to redefine data analysis in such a way tha…
Task-agnostic data valuation without validation requirements.
problem Valuing data without specific task assumptions.
method Estimating data diversity and relevance through queries without raw data.
result Estimates capture the diversity and relevance of seller's data for the buyer.
Data mining is about obtaining new knowledge from existing datasets. However, the data in the existing datasets can be scattered, noisy, and even incomplete. Although lots of effort is spent on developing or fine-tuning data mining models to make them more robust to the noise of the input data, their qualities still st…
New algorithm improves data imputation for complex multimodal data sets.
problem Artifacts in imputation methods for multimodal distributions.
method Combines NN and KDE for probabilistic estimates.
result Lower imputation errors and higher likelihood estimates.
New algorithms for clustering and synthetic data generation of heterogeneous tabular datasets.
problem Clustering and generating synthetic data from heterogeneous tabular datasets with hidden cluster structure.
method Developed MMM and MMMsynth algorithms for clustering and synthetic data generation.
result MMMsynth algorithm outperforms other literature tabular-data generators and approaches real data performance.
WeMix improves data augmentation by correcting bias in deep learning.
problem Data augmentation's effectiveness is limited by data bias.
method Developed AugDrop and MixLoss algorithms to correct data bias.
result WeMix improves data augmentation performance through bias correction.
A new method reduces data valuation variance for more trustworthy data trading.
problem Data valuation and trustworthy data trading in algorithmic prediction.
method Variance reduced Shapley value estimation using stratified sampling.
result VRDS method reduces estimation variance and improves data marketplace development.