Study finds Binance's tether-margined contracts significantly impact bitcoin volatility.
problem Understanding volatility transmission in the crypto market, especially through Binance.
method Analyzing high-frequency realised volatility dynamics and spillovers in bitcoin market pairs.
result Binance's tether-margined contracts are the primary source of volatility and transmit strong flows.
FTX's failure linked to Terra-Luna collapse and Binance's influence.
problem FTX's collapse due to misuse of native token and reliance on leverage.
method Analyzed on-chain data, studied cryptocurrency dependency structures, and examined public trades.
result FTX's downfall was accelerated by Binance's tweets and public reaction.
Prediction markets and crypto options show persistent pricing gaps.
problem Comparing prediction markets and crypto options for identical payoffs.
method Comparing Polymarket Yes prices with Binance call option prices.
result Mean pricing gap of 5.6 percentage points across 214 hourly observations.
AI models failed to profitably predict cryptocurrency extrema on Binance Spot.
problem Tackling the profitability of candle-based machine learning models for short-term cryptocurrency trading.
method Scripted fixed-seed model runs and deterministic simulators with human supervision.
result Strongest evidence found negative, with models underperforming buy-and-hold strategies.
The paper analyzes algorithmic trading in cryptocurrency exchanges, finding a profitable strategy involving indirect conversions.
problem Lack of empirical analysis of algorithmic trading in cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Empirical analysis using historical trades data from Binance.
result A triangular arbitrage strategy yields a 14.4 basis point advantage over direct exchanges.
LLT improves cryptocurrency price movement prediction accuracy.
problem Predicting intraday price movements of cryptocurrencies.
method Linear law-based feature space transformation (LLT) applied to cryptocurrency price data.
result LLT significantly enhances prediction accuracy for all cryptocurrencies.
Paper presents a deep reinforcement learning algorithm for online trading without offline training.
problem Developing a fully online trading algorithm without offline training.
method Double Deep Q-learning with Fast Learning Networks, defining terminal states for money conservation. result The algorithm outperforms random action trading and captures different market trends.
Modeling cryptocurrency spot-quotient variation as a diffusion process.
problem Intraday variation between ETHBTC spot and quotients on Binance.
method Modeling variation as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, testing for mean-reversion, using maximum likelihood estimation.
result Intraday variation is not constant at 0, showing mean-reversion behavior with larger deviations in the first year.
Study finds recurring patterns in cryptocurrency volatility and liquidity.
problem Recurring patterns in volatility and liquidity of major cryptocurrencies.
method Data from two centralized exchanges and a decentralized exchange analyzed for patterns.
result Systematic patterns in volatility and liquidity across different timeframes.
Framework simulates market microstructure with stable Hawkes processes.
problem Reproduce realistic market order flow dynamics.
method Deterministic C++ LOB simulator with Hawkes-driven stochastic order flow.
result Derives stability and ergodicity proofs for Hawkes models.
Quarter-hour market bursts predict algorithmic trading and returns in crypto futures.
problem Predicting returns in cryptocurrency futures markets using quarter-hour market bursts.
method Analysis of trade data and Autocorrelation Map to identify and quantify algorithmic trading activity.
result Quarter-hour market bursts are associated with algorithmic trading and can predict returns.
This study optimizes trading strategy parameters using walk-forward techniques and finds robust performance.
problem Optimizing trading strategy performance through parameter optimization.
method Walk-forward optimization with varying window lengths, tested on Bitcoin, Binance Coin, and Ethereum.
result The strategy outperforms Buy-and-Hold with lower drawdown and higher Information Ratio.
Game-theoretic models predict asset prices in financial markets.
problem Understanding price formation in financial markets with limited liquidity.
method Developed game-theoretic models for many-person and mean-field games, derived analytical formulas, and numerically assessed results.
result The derived price converges to the mean-field counterpart under specific conditions.
Market makers face a trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns, requiring contrarian strategies.
problem Navigating the trade-off between fill probability and post-fill returns in market making.
method Analysis of live trading data from Binance Bitcoin perpetual.
result A negative correlation between maker fill likelihood and post-fill returns, necessitating contrarian strategies.
Crypto markets show negative spillovers between chains, not positive co-movements.
problem Negative spillovers in crypto asset returns across different blockchains.
method On-chain data from multiple blockchains (Ethereum, Solana, Binance, Arbitrum, Avalanche) analyzed over 2022-2025.
result Surges on one chain often coincide with declines on others, especially during attention shocks.
Faster Ethereum slots boost CEX-DEX arbitrage by 535% and 203%.
problem Reducing Ethereum slot time impacts CEX-DEX arbitrage opportunities.
method Developed a trading model to simulate and compare agent behavior under different slot times.
result Faster slot times increase CEX-DEX arbitrage activity and returns.
DBNs predict cryptocurrency price directions by uncovering causal relationships.
problem Predicting cryptocurrency price movements due to volatility and external factors.
method Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) approach to identify causal relationships among features.
result DBN significantly outperforms baseline models in predicting cryptocurrency prices.
PDLPs reduce borrowing costs for perpetual futures traders.
problem High capital costs for market makers and traders in decentralized settings.
method Formalize PDLPs and target weight mechanisms, describe pool arbitrage and expected payoffs.
result PDLPs are easy to delta hedge, improving capital efficiency.
Modeling gas fee competition in decentralized exchanges to optimize arbitrage profits.
problem Gas fees and transaction ordering in decentralized exchanges create arbitrage opportunities.
method Developed a first equilibrium model of gas fee competition between two arbitrageurs under three transaction reversion settings.
result Mixed equilibria exist, and their characteristics depend on inventory risk and transaction settings.
This study analyzes how cryptocurrency networks adapt to financial disruptions.
problem Understanding how cryptocurrency networks respond to financial crises.
method Vertex centrality measures to assess network stability and resilience.
result Different cryptocurrencies experienced shifts in their network roles during the FTX crisis.
New voting strategies show committee-based consensus can scale efficiently.
problem Ensuring honest committees in committee-based consensus protocols.
method Empirical analysis of simpler voting strategies and their convergence to optimality.
result Simpler voting strategies converge to optimality exponentially quickly, ensuring robustness and efficiency.
Study uses RL to optimize crypto portfolios with two-sided transactions and lending.
problem Managing downside risk and capital optimization in high-risk crypto markets.
method Integrates RL with a new environmental formulation and PnL-based reward function, using SAC agent with CNN-MHA.
result Significantly outperforms benchmarks, especially in high-volatility scenarios.
Cryptocurrency patterns stable across market caps, validated by microstructure theory.
problem Stable patterns in cryptocurrency microstructure across different market caps.
method Unified CatBoost modeling pipeline with time-series cross validation, validated by backtests.
result Feature rankings and partial effects are stable across assets despite heterogeneous liquidity and volatility.
Cryptocurrency market becomes more cross-correlated over time.
problem Understanding the inter-market dependencies of cryptocurrencies.
method Time series analysis, spectral analysis, topological analysis of minimal spanning trees.
result Cryptocurrency market becomes more cross-correlated with other markets over time.
Hybrid model combines VAR and neural network for OFI prediction.
problem Accurate prediction of Order Flow Imbalance (OFI) in high frequency trading.
method Combines Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and a simple feedforward neural network (FNN).
result Hybrid model achieves superior predictive accuracy compared to standalone models.
Study uses BNs to predict cryptocurrency prices, improving accuracy with discretisation.
problem Predicting price movements in volatile cryptocurrency markets.
method Discretisation-aware Bayesian Networks with three methods and multiple bin counts.
result Equal interval with two bins provides best predictive performance.
Study models crypto markets using multi-agent reinforcement learning.
problem Emulating crypto market dynamics and behaviors.
method Multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) with RL techniques.
result Model accurately emulates crypto market microstructure and behaviors.
This paper forecasts cryptocurrency log-returns using LASSO-VAR and sentiment analysis.
problem Forecasting log-returns of cryptocurrencies using social media sentiment.
method LASSO-VAR model combined with Twitter and Reddit sentiment data.
result The model predicts the correct direction of cryptocurrency returns more than 50% of the time.
This study compares decentralized banks and finds some lack decentralization.
problem Decentralized banks do not fully decentralize transactions as expected.
method Network analysis of transaction data from four banks using core-periphery features.
result MakerDao and Compound are more decentralized than Aave and Liquity.
Cryptocurrency time-series predictability is low, resembling Brownian noise.
problem Low predictability of cryptocurrency exchange rates.
method Complexity and model predictions of Litecoin, Binance Coin, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP exchange rates.
result Simpler models outperform complex ones in cryptocurrency forecasting.
Study detects unusual trading patterns on crypto exchanges using complexity measures.
problem Detecting artificial trading activity on cryptocurrency exchanges.
method Complexity and statistical-structure measures derived from high-frequency trade-level data.
result Unusual trading patterns detected on Bitget for BTC and ETH after mid-May 2025.
This study analyzes cryptocurrency market dynamics using a novel q-dependent detrended cross-correlation method.
problem Capturing correlations at varying fluctuation amplitudes and time scales in complex systems.
method Extends traditional metrics with q-dependent detrended cross-correlation coefficient ρ(q,s) and qMSTs. result Significant shifts in network structures during major disruptions, leading to decentralized correlations.
This study compares price discovery in ETH and BTC markets between centralized and decentralized exchanges.
problem Understanding price discovery dynamics in cryptocurrency markets.
method Comparative analysis of centralized and decentralized exchanges, using econometric tools.
result Centralized exchanges lead in ETH price discovery, while futures markets lead in BTC.
Enhances cryptocurrency pair trading with DRL, outperforming classical methods.
problem Rigidity and divergence risks in traditional pair trading strategies in crypto markets.
method Hierarchical pair selection, Fixed Risk, Adaptive Mean execution model, PPO with LSTM.
result DRL outperformed heuristic baseline by a statistically significant margin.
The paper proves ADL mechanisms face a trilemma and optimizes them for fairness, revenue, and exchange solvency.
problem The impossibility of a perpetual futures exchange achieving solvency, revenue, and fairness.
method Formal model of ADL, proving trilemma, and analyzing three ADL mechanisms.
result Optimized ADL mechanisms can reduce trader losses while maintaining exchange solvency.
Study analyzes cryptocurrency market complexity, comparing it to traditional markets.
problem Understanding the dynamics and characteristics of cryptocurrency markets.
method Statistical physics methods and analysis of price fluctuations.
result Cryptocurrency market exhibits complexity similar to traditional markets but with slower information flow.
A hybrid Convolutional VAE predicts crypto volatility surfaces, outperforming single-symbol approaches.
problem Predicting crypto volatility surfaces
method Convolutional VAE with hybrid predictor
result Model achieves 0.94-1.56 vol-point RMSE across BTC and ETH markets
Study finds no significant alignment between whitepaper claims and market structure.
problem Correlation between cryptocurrency whitepaper narratives and market behavior.
method Developed a contamination-aware pipeline for measuring structural correspondence, combining NLP classification and market statistics.
result No significant claims-market alignment detected in the sample.
Study shows pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts crypto futures liquidity better than event labels.
problem Understanding how crypto futures liquidity changes over time.
method Combining L2 order book data, trade-flow records, and macro-event windows to define discrete liquidity-state transitions and evaluate models.
result Pre-event L2 liquidity state predicts post-event liquidity regimes better than event labels, and order flow adds value only when layered on top of the state model.