A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Unified Growth Theory found to be incorrect by GDP/cap data analysis.
Historical income per capita data follow hyperbolic growth patterns.
The world GDP distribution is described using thermodynamics principles.
Real GDP growth rate in developed countries is found to be a sum of two terms. The first term is the reciprocal value of the duration of the period of mean income growth with work experience, Tcr. The current value of Tcr in the USA is 40 years. The second term is inherently related to population and defined by the rel…
Linear GDP growth explained by AI performance models.
Politicians world-wide frequently promise a better life for their citizens. We find that the probability that a country will increase its {\it per capita} GDP ({\it gdp}) rank within a decade follows an exponential distribution with decay constant . We use the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) and the Global …
The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components - a steadily decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population. The long term trend in the growth rate is modelled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a con…
We present an elementary analysis of the dynamical aspects of the GDP / government surplus multiplier with relevance to the assessment of a country's debt repayment policy. We show the (at first) counter intuitive result that in order to reduce the Debt/GDP ratio, countries with high Debt to GDP should go into further …
Early warning signs of Greece's economic crisis were present in GDP growth rate instability.
Study confirms link between unemployment and real GDP growth in developed countries.
The paper gauges AGI's impact on GDP growth using mathematical metrics.
The transition of several East and Central European countries and the countries of the Former Soviet Union from the socialist economic system to the capitalist one is studied. A recently developed microeconomic model for the personal income distribution and its evolution and a simple functional relationship between the…
Principled mapping from pure-DP ε to GDP μ for Gaussian differential privacy
The study finds that the export shares of machinery and food/crude materials are significantly correlated with GDP.
Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is a widely used measurement of economic growth representing the market value of all final goods and services produced by a country within a given time. In this paper we question the assumption that GDP measures production, and suggest that in reality it merely captures changes in the rate o…
This paper investigates the relevance of the No-Ponzi game condition for public debt (i.e. the public debt growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate, a necessary assumption for Ricardian equivalence) and of the transversality condition for the GDP growth rate (i.e. the GDP growth rate has to be lower than…
What predicts the evolution over time of subjective well-being? We correlate the trends of subjective well-being with the trends of social capital and/or GDP. We find that in the long and medium run social capital largely predicts the trends of subjective wellbeing in our sample of countries. In the short-term this rel…
Proposes a graph dynamics prior for more accurate relational inference.
GDP influences both existence and volume of international trade linkages.
Unified approach for multimodal data prediction using synthetic data generation.
Study analyzes GDP growth of CEE countries using time-varying coefficients.
Study finds inconsistency in measuring GDP growth rates due to mobility of labor and capital.
Proposes a Coulomb-like model for international trade flows, fitting real-world data.
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of real GDP per capita with a numerator potentially constant for the largest develo…
We extend Gaussian Differential Privacy to curved Riemannian manifolds.
Investigates the relationship between US money supply and asset indices over 2001-2019.
We analyze the fluctuations in the gross domestic product (GDP) of 152 countries for the period 1950--1992. We find that (i) the distribution of annual growth rates for countries of a given GDP decays with ``fatter'' tails than for a Gaussian, and (ii) the width of the distribution scales as a power law of GDP with a s…
The US GDP per capita growth alternates between high and low rates, with an average growth rate of 1.6% since 1800.
In order to investigate whether government regulations against corruption can affect the economic growth of a country, we analyze the dependence between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita growth rates and changes in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). For the period 1999-2004 on average for all countries in th…
World GDP growth is predicted to become unsustainable.
We present an empirical analysis of the network formed by the trade relationships between all world countries, or World Trade Web (WTW). Each (directed) link is weighted by the amount of wealth flowing between two countries, and each country is characterized by the value of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By analysin…
We study cross-country GDP losses due to financial crises in terms of frequency (number of loss events per period) and severity (loss per occurrence). We perform the Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) to estimate a multi-country aggregate GDP loss probability density function and the percentiles associated to extreme eve…
A two-component model for the evolution of real GDP per capita in the USA is presented and tested. The first component of the GDP growth rate represents an economic trend and is inversely proportional to the attained level of real GDP per capita itself, with the nominator being constant through time. The second compone…
Modeling GDP growth rates using Lévy flights with confining potential.
There is an extensive historical dataset on real GDP per capita prepared by Angus Maddison. This dataset covers the period since 1870 with continuous annual estimates in developed countries. All time series for individual economies have a clear structural break between 1940 and 1950. The behavior before 1940 and after …
The paper uses LSMC to price capped American options with time-dependent caps.
Gaussian DP improves reporting of ML algorithms' differential privacy guarantees.
The highly detailed international trade data among all countries in the world during 1971-2000 shows that the kinds of export goods and the logarithmic GDP (gross domestic production) of a country has an S-shaped relationship. This indicates all countries can be divided into three stages accordingly. First, the poor co…
The cluster analysis methods are used in order to perform a comparative study of 15 EU countries in relation with the fluctuations of some basic macroeconomic indicators. The statistical distances between countries are calculated for various moving time windows, and the time variation of the mean statistical distance i…
This paper investigates the statistical properties of within-country GDP and industrial production (IP) growth rate distributions. Many empirical contributions have recently pointed out that cross-section growth rates of firms, industries and countries all follow Laplace distributions. In this work, we test whether als…
This paper benchmarks econometric and machine learning methods in nowcasting GDP growth.
Method finds all cross caps formally isometric to a given one.
It is classically known that generic smooth maps of R^2 into R^3 admit only cross cap singularities. This suggests that the class of cross caps might be an important object in differential geometry. We show that the standard cross cap (u,uv,v^2) has non-trivial isometric deformations with infinite dimensional freedom. …
Study symmetry of cross-cap surfaces with folding maps.
The study finds a time lag effect in FDI-GDP correlations, with significant statistical significance.
Paper classifies symmetries of cross caps using invariants.
Survival analysis models predict economic convergence across Americas.
Study finds nighttime lights correlate with Indian GDP growth.