A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
DeepFair improves fairness in recommender systems without sacrificing accuracy.
GARCH-UGH improves VaR estimation for financial risk management.
This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to avoid this. The report describes and evaluates risk assessment and management for th…
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy…
Over the years, several studies have demonstrated that there exist significant disparities in health indicators in the United States population across various groups. Healthcare expense is used as a proxy for health in algorithms that drive healthcare systems and this exacerbates the existing bias. In this work, we foc…
With the industry trend of shifting from a traditional hierarchical approach to flatter management structure, crowdsourced performance assessment gained mainstream popularity. One fundamental challenge of crowdsourced performance assessment is the risks that personal interest can introduce distortions of facts, especia…
Machine learning algorithms can misrepresent training data, study finds.
This paper evaluates debiasing methods on word embeddings to reduce religious bias.
ProPublica's analysis of recidivism predictions produced by Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) software tool for the task, has shown that the predictions were racially biased against African American defendants. We analyze the COMPAS data using a causal reformulation of the un…
M2VN forecasts financial volatility by fusing time series data with news embeddings.
Research shows eco-innovation boosts earnings management, especially in constrained firms.
Unified theory explains diversity in ensemble learning.
This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the front-end estimates of costs and benefits--used in the business cases, cost-ben…
PBC improves AI and dynamical subseasonal forecasts by reducing biases.
Bayesian imputation optimizes bias-variance trade-off in time-series data.
Estimates causal effect of managed care plans on NYC Medicaid spending.
The cost-benefit analysis formulates the holy trinity of objectives of project management - cost, schedule, and benefits. As our previous research has shown, ICT projects deviate from their initial cost estimate by more than 10% in 8 out of 10 cases. Academic research has argued that Optimism Bias and Black Swan Blindn…
Performance of investment managers are evaluated in comparison with benchmarks, such as financial indices. Due to the operational constraint that most professional databases do not track the change of constitution of benchmark portfolios, standard tests of performance suffer from the "look-ahead benchmark bias," when t…
A new method for computing Greeks without bias, improving stability.
New method corrects bias in estimating entropic risk for better decision-making.
Managing a portfolio to a risk model can tilt the portfolio toward weaknesses of the model. As a result, the optimized portfolio acquires downside exposure to uncertainty in the model itself, what we call "second order risk." We propose a risk measure that accounts for this bias. Studies of real portfolios, in asset-by…
A new RL method improves revenue management with delayed feedback.
Improves AUC for disadvantaged groups by adding features.
AMA-LSTM improves stock volatility prediction using adversarial training.
We reformulate the Cont-Bouchaud model of financial markets in terms of classical "super-spins" where the spin value is a measure of the number of individual traders represented by a portfolio manager of an investment agency. We then extend this simplified model by switching on interactions among the super-spins to mod…
GNCL algorithm controls diversity in deep ensembles.
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
Recidivism prediction scores are used across the USA to determine sentencing and supervision for hundreds of thousands of inmates. One such generator of recidivism prediction scores is Northpointe's Correctional Offender Management Profiling for Alternative Sanctions (COMPAS) score, used in states like California and F…
With broad applications in various public services like aviation management and urban disaster warning, numerical precipitation prediction plays a crucial role in weather forecast. However, constrained by the limitation of observation and conventional meteorological models, the numerical precipitation predictions are o…
Two new approaches improve decision-making in asset monitoring systems.
This work analyzes how preconditioning affects generalization in machine learning models.
Machine learning algorithms can unintentionally discriminate; tools detect and fix this.
Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large risks and easily might disrupt operations, waste taxpayers' money, and create negative publicity. Because of the high risks it is important that government leaders manage the attendant risks. We analysed a sample of 1,355 publ…
Proposes a probabilistic model to improve hydrology predictions and trust.
In this paper, we present the principal components of an economic scenario generator (ESG), both for the theoretical design and for practical implementation. The choice of these components should be linked to the ultimate vocation of the economic scenario generator, which can be either a tool for pricing financial prod…
Monte Carlo simulations of diffusion processes often introduce bias in the final result, due to time discretization. Using an auxiliary Poisson process, it is possible to run simulations which are unbiased. In this article, we propose such a Monte Carlo scheme which converges to the exact value. We manage to keep the s…
Paper presents a method for geographic ratemaking using spatial embeddings.
We present a reactive beta model that includes the leverage effect to allow hedge fund managers to target a near-zero beta for market neutral strategies. For this purpose, we derive a metric of correlation with leverage effect to identify the relation between the market beta and volatility changes. An empirical test ba…
A new property fixes look-ahead bias in backtesting and trading pipelines.
Quantum kernels offer potential speed-ups but require encoding problem-specific knowledge.
Although data may be abundant, complete data is less so, due to missing columns or rows. This missingness undermines the performance of downstream data products that either omit incomplete cases or create derived completed data for subsequent processing. Appropriately managing missing data is required in order to fully…
This paper introduces a new method for sampling copulas using GANs and space-filling designs.
CLQT benchmarks LLM portfolio managers by evaluating their decision-making process, not just returns.
Many economic applications including optimal pricing and inventory management requires prediction of demand based on sales data and estimation of sales reaction to a price change. There is a wide range of econometric approaches which are used to correct a bias in estimates of demand parameters on censored sales data. T…
This paper explores good practices for AI explainability in finance.
As reinforcement learning (RL) achieves more success in solving complex tasks, more care is needed to ensure that RL research is reproducible and that algorithms herein can be compared easily and fairly with minimal bias. RL results are, however, notoriously hard to reproduce due to the algorithms' intrinsic variance, …
New method estimates policy performance under unobserved confounding.
Adaptive spectral RL method enhances RL performance and interpretability.