A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
HydroNets use river structure to improve hydrologic predictions.
Regional rainfall-runoff modeling is an old but still mostly out-standing problem in Hydrological Sciences. The problem currently is that traditional hydrological models degrade significantly in performance when calibrated for multiple basins together instead of for a single basin alone. In this paper, we propose a nov…
Proposes a probabilistic model to improve hydrology predictions and trust.
Data scientists guide to streamflow prediction and flood forecasting.
Despite the huge success of Long Short-Term Memory networks, their applications in environmental sciences are scarce. We argue that one reason is the difficulty to interpret the internals of trained networks. In this study, we look at the application of LSTMs for rainfall-runoff forecasting, one of the central tasks in…
PIML model improves hydrological predictions by blending physics and ML.
DL models can outperform regionalized models in hydrology by pooling diverse data.
Hydrological storm events are a primary driver for transporting water quality constituents such as turbidity, suspended sediments and nutrients. Analyzing the concentration (C) of these water quality constituents in response to increased streamflow discharge (Q), particularly when monitored at high temporal resolution …
Delivering useful hydrological forecasts is critical for urban and agricultural water management, hydropower generation, flood protection and management, drought mitigation and alleviation, and river basin planning and management, among others. In this work, we present and appraise a new simple and flexible methodology…
MC-LSTM extends LSTM to conserve mass in neural networks.
Climate change affects occurrences of floods and droughts worldwide. However, predicting climate impacts over individual watersheds is difficult, primarily because accurate hydrological forecasts require models that are calibrated to past data. In this work we present a large-scale LSTM-based modeling approach that -- …
Joint models are a common and important tool in the intersection of machine learning and the physical sciences, particularly in contexts where real-world measurements are scarce. Recent developments in rainfall-runoff modeling, one of the prime challenges in hydrology, show the value of a joint model with shared repres…
Deep learning enhances water resources management through data analysis.
Dataset for rainfall modeling in central Europe from 1981-2011.
In this paper, we demonstrated a practical application of realistic river image generation using deep learning. Specifically, we explored a generative adversarial network (GAN) model capable of generating high-resolution and realistic river images that can be used to support modeling and analysis in surface water estim…
Enhanced time series forecasting with improved trend and seasonal components.
Evaporation is one of the main processes in the hydrological cycle, and it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, the evaporation is a complex and nonlinear phenomenon; therefore, the data-based methods can be …
Researchers use Gaussian processes with non-stationary kernels to model precipitation patterns in the Upper Indus Basin.
Global hydrological and land surface models are increasingly used for tracking terrestrial total water storage (TWS) dynamics, but the utility of existing models is hampered by conceptual and/or data uncertainties related to various underrepresented and unrepresented processes, such as groundwater storage. The gravity …
Predicting flood for any location at times of extreme storms is a longstanding problem that has utmost importance in emergency management. Conventional methods that aim to predict water levels in streams use advanced hydrological models still lack of giving accurate forecasts everywhere. This study aims to explore arti…
A new method estimates time-varying parameters in earth system models using offline and online data assimilation.
Water balance models (WBMs) are often employed to understand regional hydrologic cycles over various time scales. Most WBMs, however, are physically-based, and few employ state-of-the-art statistical methods to reconcile independent input measurement uncertainty and bias. Further, few WBMs exist for large lakes, and mo…
Exploiting capacity of sewer system using decentralized control is a cost effective mean of minimizing the overflow. Given the size of the real sewer system, exploiting all the installed control structures in the sewer pipes can be challenging. This paper presents a divide and conquer solution to implement decentralize…
Climate extreme events are constantly increasing. What is the effect of these potentially catastrophic events on insurance demand in Italy, with particular reference to the economic activities? Extreme precipitation events over most of the midlatitude land masses and over wet tropical regions will very likely become mo…
The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has delivered valuable sensing of surface soil moisture since 2015. However, it has a short time span and irregular revisit schedule. Utilizing a state-of-the-art time-series deep learning neural network, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), we created a system that predicts SM…
Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) is a major problem to be addressed by many cities. Understanding the behavior of sewer system through proper urban hydrological models is an effective method of enhancing sewer system management. Conventional deterministic methods, which heavily rely on physical principles, is inappropriat…
Data science models, although successful in a number of commercial domains, have had limited applicability in scientific problems involving complex physical phenomena. Theory-guided data science (TGDS) is an emerging paradigm that aims to leverage the wealth of scientific knowledge for improving the effectiveness of da…
Study identifies new stable climate states in climate model.
The development of global sensitivity analysis of numerical model outputs has recently raised new issues on 1-dimensional Poincaré inequalities. Typically two kind of sensitivity indices are linked by a Poincaré type inequality, which provide upper bounds of the most interpretable index by using the other one, cheaper …
Optimizes sampling for faster convergence in Bayesian experimental design and uncertainty quantification.
Learning hydrologic models for accurate riverine flood prediction at scale is a challenge of great importance. One of the key difficulties is the need to rely on in-situ river discharge measurements, which can be quite scarce and unreliable, particularly in regions where floods cause the most damage every year. Accordi…
fSDE-Net generates time series with long-term memory using neural networks.
Study improves precipitation predictions for High Mountain Asia using machine learning.
CauSTream forecasts streamflow by integrating causal graphs for better interpretability.
Bayesian framework selects features and lags for time series forecasting.
New framework uses time series features for predicting streamflow in ungauged areas.
INDEQS: A Graph-Based Neural Controlled Differential Equation Framework for Forecasting
In this paper, we consider the use of structure learning methods for probabilistic graphical models to identify statistical dependencies in high-dimensional physical processes. Such processes are often synthetically characterized using PDEs (partial differential equations) and are observed in a variety of natural pheno…
Deep learning (DL), a new-generation of artificial neural network research, has transformed industries, daily lives and various scientific disciplines in recent years. DL represents significant progress in the ability of neural networks to automatically engineer problem-relevant features and capture highly complex data…
New findings challenge the importance of forecast accuracy in battery storage optimization, highlighting the role of rank correlation instead.
Recent observations with varied schedules and types (moving average, snapshot, or regularly spaced) can help to improve streamflow forecasts, but it is challenging to integrate them effectively. Based on a long short-term memory (LSTM) streamflow model, we tested multiple versions of a flexible procedure we call data i…
Accurate and efficient models for rainfall runoff (RR) simulations are crucial for flood risk management. Most rainfall models in use today are process-driven; i.e. they solve either simplified empirical formulas or some variation of the St. Venant (shallow water) equations. With the development of machine-learning tec…
Deep learning improves probabilistic river discharge forecasting for hydroelectric power.
ML models predict water table depth more accurately than PB models, especially in data-scarce regions.
Machine learning predicts dam-break flood wave behavior accurately.