Generalizes bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
problem No specific problem stated; generalization of bias-variance for Bregman divergences.
method Provided a generalization of the bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
result A clear, standalone derivation of the bias-variance decomposition for Bregman divergences.
Paper explores robust regression methods and their bias-variance trade-off.
problem Understanding the trade-off between robust estimation and optimization methods.
method Examines traditional outlier-resistant robust estimation and robust optimization.
result Both methods follow converse strategies due to a bias-variance trade-off.
We analyze bias-variance of margin losses.
problem Understanding model overfitting/underfitting.
method Bias-variance decomposition for strictly convex margin losses.
result Expected risk decomposes into central model risk and data variation.
The main goal of this thesis is to point out that the bias-variance tradeoff is not always true (e.g. in neural networks). We advocate for this lack of universality to be acknowledged in textbooks and taught in introductory courses that cover the tradeoff. We first review the history of the bias-variance tradeoff, its …
Study shows exponential error reduction in multiclass classification without bias-variance trade-off.
problem Multiclass classification with margin conditions.
method Analysis of classification error under hard-margin conditions.
result Exponential decrease in classification error without bias-variance trade-off.
The paper analyzes the bias-variance tradeoff for Bregman divergences.
problem Understanding the bias-variance tradeoff for Bregman divergences.
method Analyzes the bias-variance tradeoff through operations in dual space.
result Derives several results including a generalized law of total variance and ensembling operations.
Unified theory explains diversity in ensemble learning.
problem Explaining diversity in ensemble learning across various scenarios.
method Developed a framework revealing diversity as a hidden dimension in bias-variance decomposition.
result Proved exact bias-variance-diversity decompositions for multiple losses in regression and classification.
This work introduces a bias-variance decomposition for proper scores, improving uncertainty estimation in predictive models.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimation for predictions in safety-critical applications, especially under domain drift.
method Developed a general bias-variance decomposition for proper scores, introducing the Bregman Information as the variance term.
result The decomposition provides novel formulations for different predictive tasks, including classification and model ensembles.
Hierarchical probabilistic models are able to use a large number of parameters to create a model with a high representation power. However, it is well known that increasing the number of parameters also increases the complexity of the model which leads to a bias-variance trade-off. Although it is a classical problem, t…
Optimal feature transfer identified through bias-variance analysis.
problem Optimizing feature transfer in transfer learning.
method Simple linear model with fine-grained bias-variance decomposition.
result Optimal pretrained feature transform is naturally sparse.
Study explores bias-variance in adversarial machine learning.
problem Understanding adversarial machine learning's impact on bias and variance.
method Investigates bias-variance trade-offs in deep neural networks using MSE and cross-entropy.
result Derives bias-variance trade-offs for classification and regression.
In this paper, we provide a theoretical understanding of word embedding and its dimensionality. Motivated by the unitary-invariance of word embedding, we propose the Pairwise Inner Product (PIP) loss, a novel metric on the dissimilarity between word embeddings. Using techniques from matrix perturbation theory, we revea…
The paper explores the trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional models.
problem Understanding the unavoidable trade-off between bias and variance in high-dimensional statistical models.
method Proposes a general strategy to obtain lower bounds on the variance of estimators with a specified bias, and applies it to various statistical models.
result Shows the extent to which the bias-variance trade-off is unavoidable and quantifies the performance loss for methods that do not balance it.
Ensembles improve classifier performance by reducing bias, not variance.
problem Improving classifier performance through ensemble methods.
method Extended bias-variance decomposition for classification tasks, introducing dual reparameterization.
result Ensembling reduces bias in classifiers, contrary to the traditional view.
Improves early stopping in deep networks by adjusting stepsizes.
problem Epoch-wise double descent in deep networks.
method Analytical and empirical study of bias-variance tradeoffs in different network layers.
result Eliminating epoch-wise double descent through adjusting stepsizes of different layers improves early stopping performance.
Analyzes bias-variance in overparameterized linear models using random features.
problem Understanding bias-variance trade-off in overparameterized models.
method Zero-temperature cavity method and random matrix theory.
result Three phase transitions in the linear random features model.
This paper analyzes bias-variance trade-off for clipped SFOMs, improving complexity guarantees for heavy-tailed noise.
problem Improving complexity guarantees for stochastic optimization methods with heavy-tailed noise.
method Novel analysis of bias-variance trade-off in gradient clipping for clipped SFOMs.
result Improved complexity guarantees for clipped SFOMs across various tail indices, including infinite mean noise.
Vector embedding is a foundational building block of many deep learning models, especially in natural language processing. In this paper, we present a theoretical framework for understanding the effect of dimensionality on vector embeddings. We observe that the distributional hypothesis, a governing principle of statis…
New insights into bias-variance tradeoff for data-driven optimization under local misspecification.
problem Understanding the relative performance of SAA, IEO, and ETO under local misspecification.
method Developed a local misspecification perspective using contiguity theory in statistics.
result Explicit expressions for decision bias and geometric understanding of variance.
FlexAE addresses bias-variance trade-off in RAEs by learning latent priors.
problem Improving generation quality of deterministic AE models.
method Introducing flexibly learnable latent priors in WAEs to optimize the latent distribution.
result FlexAE achieves state-of-the-art performance in AE-based generative models.
New estimator reduces bias and variance in tensor and matrix denoising.
problem Optimal bias-variance tradeoff in matrix and tensor estimation.
method One-step variant of higher-order SVD (HOSVD) estimator.
result Achieves optimal bias-variance tradeoff in both matrix and tensor settings.
The bias-variance tradeoff tells us that as model complexity increases, bias falls and variances increases, leading to a U-shaped test error curve. However, recent empirical results with over-parameterized neural networks are marked by a striking absence of the classic U-shaped test error curve: test error keeps decrea…
Proposes volumization for neural networks to control bias-variance tradeoff.
problem Improving generalization and preventing memorization in neural networks.
method Defines a physical volume for weights, interpolating between L2 and L∞ regularization.
result Volumization interpolates between weight decay and clipping, improving generalization.
This paper presents a bias-variance tradeoff of graph Laplacian regularizer, which is widely used in graph signal processing and semi-supervised learning tasks. The scaling law of the optimal regularization parameter is specified in terms of the spectral graph properties and a novel signal-to-noise ratio parameter, whi…
Paper tackles bias-variance trade-off in missing data, proposing a dynamic framework.
problem Missing data in practical applications deteriorates model performance.
method Develops a fine-grained dynamic learning framework to jointly optimize bias and variance.
result Theoretical and empirical validation of joint bias-variance optimization.
New insights into bias and variance in over-parameterized models.
problem Understanding bias and variance in over-parameterized models.
method Analytic expressions derived from statistical physics for two minimal models.
result Over-parameterized models can overfit even in noiseless conditions.
The study improves theoretical understanding of using multiple synthetic datasets for better model accuracy.
problem Lack of theoretical understanding of using multiple synthetic datasets for supervised learning.
method Derive bias-variance decompositions for multiple synthetic datasets settings.
result A simple rule of thumb to select the appropriate number of synthetic datasets.
Bias - variance decomposition of the expected error defined for regression and classification problems is an important tool to study and compare different algorithms, to find the best areas for their application. Here the decomposition is introduced for the survival analysis problem. In our experiments, we study bias -…
Breakthroughs in machine learning are rapidly changing science and society, yet our fundamental understanding of this technology has lagged far behind. Indeed, one of the central tenets of the field, the bias-variance trade-off, appears to be at odds with the observed behavior of methods used in the modern machine lear…
New analysis reveals optimal regularization for ESNs, avoiding double descent.
problem Characterizing and optimizing Echo State Networks (ESNs) for precise bias-variance.
method Random matrix theory applied to ESNs in a teacher-student setting.
result ESNs achieve lower MSE with limited training samples and teacher memory.
Proposes a novel MTL approach based on bias-variance analysis.
problem Improving multi-task learning performance through shared knowledge.
method Two-phase iterative aggregation of targets and features using bias-variance analysis.
result Validation on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.
The paper introduces a new framework to assess generative model uncertainty.
problem Lack of a theoretical framework for assessing generative models' generalization and uncertainty.
method Bias-variance-covariance decomposition for kernel scores, with unbiased and consistent estimators.
result Kernel-based variance and entropy for uncertainty estimation are more predictive than existing methods.
StableDR stabilizes doubly robust learning for biased recommendation data.
problem Data missing not at random in recommender systems.
method StableDR, a stabilized doubly robust learning approach.
result StableDR achieves bounded bias, variance, and generalization error.
New estimator reduces bias-variance tradeoff in Markovian interference experiments.
problem Estimating impact of interventions in systems with limited resources.
method Differences-In-Q (DQ) estimator for on-policy policy evaluation.
result DQ estimator has exponentially smaller variance than off-policy methods.
New algorithm offers costless model selection in contextual bandits.
problem Minimizing cumulative regret in stochastic contextual bandits.
method Gradually increasing class complexity and adapting to the simplest class with dominant estimation variance.
result Costless model selection is feasible under certain conditions, providing improved regret guarantees.
A new method interpolates between sampling and variational inference using stochastic mixtures.
problem Combining the strengths of sampling and variational inference methods.
method Develops a framework using stochastic mixtures of simple component distributions to interpolate between sampling and variational inference.
result Improves on both sampling and variational inference methods by reducing bias and variance.
This study optimizes neural networks for doubly robust ATE estimation to balance bias and variance.
problem Balancing bias and variance in doubly robust estimators with neural networks.
method Investigates two neural network architectures and their hyperparameters in the presence of confounders and IVs.
result Optimal hyperparameters for neural networks reduce bias-variance tradeoff for ATE estimators.
Variational approaches based on neural networks are showing promise for estimating mutual information (MI) between high dimensional variables. However, they can be difficult to use in practice due to poorly understood bias/variance tradeoffs. We theoretically show that, under some conditions, estimators such as MINE ex…
DN estimator mitigates network interference in experiments.
problem Network interference biases naive experiment designs.
method Differences-in-Neighbors (DN) estimator designed to mitigate interference.
result DN achieves bias second order in interference effect, with exponentially smaller variance.
Paper outlines a new mathematical language for experiments.
problem Formalizing the scientific process for automation.
method Formulates the scientific process in precise mathematical language.
result Novel contributions in data processing, bias variance, and deficiency.
Paper analyzes LPSA algorithm for constrained optimization, revealing phase transitions and bias-variance trade-offs.
problem Optimization problems with linear constraints.
method Loopless projection stochastic approximation (LPSA) with jump diffusion approximation.
result LPSA trajectories converge to SDEs, revealing asymptotic behaviors and phase transitions.
A new tradeoff between regularization and sharpness improves model performance in overparameterized settings.
problem Improving model performance in overparameterized settings with minimum-norm interpolators.
method Proposes a regularization-sharpness tradeoff for overparameterized linear regression with an ℓ^p penalty.
result Empirical validation shows the tradeoff terms can distinguish performant linear interpolators.
Double descent risk in L2-regularized models explained and mitigated.
problem Risk of overparameterized models in machine learning.
method Analysis of L2-regularized models, two-layer neural networks, and CNNs.
result Double descent risk in L2-regularized models can be explained and mitigated by adjusting regularization strengths.
Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) on Markov decision processes (MDPs) with continuous action spaces is often approached by directly training parametric policies along the direction of estimated policy gradients (PGs). Previous research revealed that the performance of these PG algorithms depends heavily on the bias-var…
The paper proposes a method for distribution-free prediction sets that adapt to unknown temporal changes.
problem Distribution-free prediction sets require reliable calibration data, which is often unavailable in real-world settings with temporal changes.
method The method selects an adaptive window to construct prediction sets, optimizing a bias-variance tradeoff.
result The method provides sharp coverage guarantees and is shown to be adaptive to temporal drift through numerical experiments.
Adversarial training leads to large generalization gap, decomposed into bias and variance.
problem Understanding the large generalization gap in adversarially trained models.
method Bias-Variance decomposition of test risk as a function of adversarial perturbation radius.
result Bias increases monotonically with adversarial perturbation radius and is dominant in test risk.
Unified framework for clustering with auxiliary data.
problem Clustering with datasets reflecting similar but different latent structures.
method Adaptive Transfer Clustering (ATC) algorithm that optimizes bias-variance decomposition.
result ATC proves optimal under Gaussian mixture model and shows transfer benefits.
A new approach selects tuning parameters for embedding methods.
problem Difficulty in selecting tuning parameters for embedding methods.
method Minimize a stress notion to supervise tuning parameter selection.
result Uncover a new bias--variance tradeoff phenomenon.