ZICO learns DAGs from zero-inflated count data efficiently.
problem Learning network structures from zero-inflated count data.
method ZICO uses node-wise likelihoods with canonical links and a differentiable surrogate constraint for acyclicity.
result ZICO achieves superior performance and faster runtimes on simulated data.
New ZIPLN model accounts for zero-inflation in multivariate count data.
problem Zero-inflation in multivariate count data.
method Introduced Zero-Inflated PLN (ZIPLN) model with variational inference.
result ZIPLN significantly improves log-likelihood and reduces dispersion.
Paper proposes copula-based models for analyzing multivariate zero-inflated continuous data.
problem Challenges in analyzing multivariate zero-inflated continuous data with mixed discreteness and continuity.
method Proposes two copula-based density estimation models and rectified Gaussian copula.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to conventional methods.
Paper introduces ZIPTF and C-ZIPTF for better tensor factorization of zero-inflated count data.
problem Inefficient tensor factorization for zero-inflated count data, especially in scRNA-seq.
method Zero Inflated Poisson Tensor Factorization (ZIPTF) and Consensus Zero Inflated Poisson Tensor Factorization (C-ZIPTF).
result ZIPTF and C-ZIPTF improve tensor factorization accuracy and consistency for zero-inflated count data.
Zero-inflated datasets, which have an excess of zero outputs, are commonly encountered in problems such as climate or rare event modelling. Conventional machine learning approaches tend to overestimate the non-zeros leading to poor performance. We propose a novel model family of zero-inflated Gaussian processes (ZiGP) …
New bandit algorithms improve sparse reward learning.
problem Sparse rewards hinder learning efficiency in real-world bandit applications.
method Developed algorithms based on Upper Confidence Bound and Thompson Sampling for zero-inflated distributions.
result Empirical performance of new algorithms is superior to existing methods.
Proposes a new model to predict travel demand with zero-inflated and long-tail characteristics.
problem Sparse and long-tailed travel demand data with many zeros.
method Spatial-Temporal Tweedie Graph Neural Network (STTD) using Tweedie distribution.
result STTD provides accurate predictions and precise confidence intervals.
Deep model tackles zero-inflated multi-species abundance estimation.
problem Predicting species distribution across landscapes with inflated zero counts.
method Proposes a novel deep learning model combining multivariate probit and log-normal distributions.
result Model outperforms existing methods on bird and fish population datasets.
In a previous analysis the problem of "zero-inflated" time data (caused by high frequency trading in the electronic order book) was handled by left-truncating the inter-arrival times. We demonstrated, using rigorous statistical methods, that the Weibull distribution describes the corresponding stochastic dynamics for a…
A Deep Zero-Inflated Model for Detecting North Atlantic Right Whale Presence
problem Balancing marine conservation and blue economy management
method Deep Zero-Inflated Bernoulli model
result Improved model adequacy and predictive performance
The paper models and predicts co-occurrence counts using Gamma regression.
problem Predicting relevance between items or users from high-dimensional sparse co-occurrence count data.
method Shared parameter alternating zero-inflated Gamma regression models (SA-ZIG) with Fisher scoring and learning rate adjustment.
result SA-ZIG with learning rate adjustment performs satisfactorily in predicting relevance.
New method improves mHealth user engagement using Thompson sampling for count data.
problem Optimizing mHealth interventions for distal outcomes through proximal context.
method Combines count data models with Thompson sampling for contextual bandits.
result Improves user engagement in mHealth trials compared to existing methods.
Bayesian framework for semiparametric regression of discrete data.
problem Complex distributional features of discrete data.
method Semiparametric modeling with nonparametric marginal and latent linear regression.
result Posterior consistency and analytical/posterior predictive distributions.
A new model improves analysis of neural activity from calcium imaging.
problem Statistical modeling of deconvolved calcium signals for neural activity interpretation.
method Proposed a zero-inflated gamma (ZIG) model to characterize calcium responses as a mixture of a gamma distribution and a point mass.
result The ZIG model outperforms simpler models in neural encoding and decoding problems.
Tornadoes are the most violent of all atmospheric storms. In a typical year, the United States experiences hundreds of tornadoes with associated damages on the order of one billion dollars. Community preparation and resilience would benefit from accurate predictions of these economic losses, particularly as populations…
Robust Bayesian inference improves model performance on discrete data.
problem Misspecification of discrete-valued models leads to poor inference and prediction.
method Total Variation Distance (TVD) for discrepancy, efficient estimator and inference method.
result Our approach significantly improves predictive performance on various data.
In finance, durations between successive transactions are usually modeled by the autoregressive conditional duration model based on a continuous distribution omitting zero values. Zero or close-to-zero durations can be caused by either split transactions or independent transactions. We propose a discrete model allowing…
RainfallBench benchmarks GNSS-based precipitation nowcasting models, addressing complex meteorological challenges.
problem Evaluation of precipitation nowcasting models in meteorology is insufficient due to focus on periodic variables.
method RainfallBench dataset and specialized evaluation protocols for multi-scale, multi-resolution, and extreme rainfall events.
result Bi-Focus Precipitation Forecaster (BFPF) enhances rainfall time series forecasting by incorporating domain-specific priors.
A composite loss framework is proposed for low-rank modeling of data consisting of interesting and common values, such as excess zeros or missing values. The methodology is motivated by the generalized low-rank framework and the hurdle method which is commonly used to analyze zero-inflated counts. The model is demonstr…
A new SBM for non-negative zero-inflated edge weights in networks.
problem Modeling international trading networks with non-negative zero-inflated edge weights.
method Restricted Tweedie distribution and nodal information accounting.
result Efficient two-step algorithm for estimating covariate effects.
New model predicts travel demand uncertainty with high accuracy.
problem Uncertainty and sparsity in sparse travel demand prediction.
method Spatial-Temporal Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Graph Neural Network (STZINB-GNN).
result STZINB-GNN outperforms benchmarks in predicting travel demand uncertainty.
Semiparametric STAR model improves mental health data analysis.
problem Overdispersed, zero-inflated, bounded count data in self-reported mental health surveys.
method STAR transformation and rounding of latent Gaussian model, nonparametric transformation estimation, EM algorithm for maximum likelihood.
result Substantial improvements in goodness-of-fit compared to existing models.
New method predicts positive samples with missing labels.
problem Missing labels due to response-dependent factors.
method P(U)U-O-Mixture algorithm for joint estimation.
result Non-convex algorithm leads to optimal statistical error.
Enhanced Tweedie model for insurance claims using CatBoost.
problem Accurately modeling aggregate claims with zero-inflated data.
method Refined Tweedie model with boosting methods in CatBoost.
result Marked improvement in model performance for insurance analytics.
HIP method extended to multi-class, Poisson, and Zero-Inflated Poisson outcomes with an R Shiny app.
problem Subgroup heterogeneity in complex diseases like COPD.
method Integrating multiple data views while accounting for subgroup heterogeneity.
result Identified common and subgroup-specific markers of exacerbation frequency in males and females.
Inpatient care is a large share of total health care spending, making analysis of inpatient utilization patterns an important part of understanding what drives health care spending growth. Common features of inpatient utilization measures include zero inflation, over-dispersion, and skewness, all of which complicate st…
SDE automatically recovers interpretable discrete distributions.
problem Limited interpretable discrete probability laws.
method Unsupervised framework using symbolic density estimation.
result Accurately recovers interpretable discrete distributions.
A new model captures irregularly spaced high-frequency prices and their volatility.
problem Modeling high-frequency prices with irregular spacing and market noise.
method Observation-driven model using Skellam distribution with time-varying volatility and smoothing splines.
result The model provides a good fit to IBM stock data and measures daily realized volatility.
Non-negative matrix factorization models based on a hierarchical Gamma-Poisson structure capture user and item behavior effectively in extremely sparse data sets, making them the ideal choice for collaborative filtering applications. Hierarchical Poisson factorization (HPF) in particular has proved successful for scala…
The M5 competition tackles overdispersed retail sales forecasting with GAMLSS.
problem Overdispersed and zero-inflated retail sales data.
method Distributional forecasting using GAMLSS framework.
result GAMLSS provides better probabilistic forecasting for count data.
We propose a simple yet powerful framework for modeling integer-valued data, such as counts, scores, and rounded data. The data-generating process is defined by Simultaneously Transforming and Rounding (STAR) a continuous-valued process, which produces a flexible family of integer-valued distributions capable of modeli…
The paper discusses methods for interval estimation of coefficients in penalized regression models for insurance data.
problem Valid inference on coefficients after feature selection in GLM family for insurance data.
method Proposes methodologies for constructing confidence intervals of coefficients after feature selection in GLM family.
result Valid inference on coefficients after feature selection in GLM family for insurance data.
Bayesian CART models improve insurance claims frequency prediction and interpretation.
problem Improving accuracy and interpretability in insurance pricing models.
method Introducing Bayesian CART models for claims frequency, implementing MCMC algorithm for posterior tree exploration, and using DIC for model selection.
result Bayesian CART models can better classify policy-holders into risk groups.
We propose a new variational Bayes estimator for high-dimensional copulas with discrete, or a combination of discrete and continuous, margins. The method is based on a variational approximation to a tractable augmented posterior, and is faster than previous likelihood-based approaches. We use it to estimate drawable vi…
Modeling correlated mutations in cancer for personalized treatment.
problem Identifying mutations for personalized cancer therapy in heterogeneous profiles.
method Proposed correlated zero-inflated negative binomial process with mixed beta-Bernoulli and variational inference.
result Identified biologically relevant correlations between somatic mutations.
Uplift models support decision-making in marketing campaign planning. Estimating the causal effect of a marketing treatment, an uplift model facilitates targeting communication to responsive customers and efficient allocation of marketing budgets. Research into uplift models focuses on conversion models to maximize inc…
The seemingly disjoint problems of count and mixture modeling are united under the negative binomial (NB) process. A gamma process is employed to model the rate measure of a Poisson process, whose normalization provides a random probability measure for mixture modeling and whose marginalization leads to an NB process f…
Alternative model predicts health insurance reimbursement based on contract limitations.
problem Estimating the ratio of reimbursement to health care expenditures after deductibles and copayments.
method Proposes a Zero-One Inflated Beta regression model using GAMLSS.
result The model provides a dependency structure between reimbursement and contract limitations.
A novel spatio-temporal graph neural network with a learnable Tweedie head improves vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
problem Accurate vessel traffic flow prediction in sparse maritime data.
method A model-agnostic learnable Tweedie head attached to ST-GNN backbones.
result The proposed head consistently improves RMSE across multiple ST-GNN backbones, especially on non-zero events.
Copulas model cross-product effects in intraday power markets.
problem Intraday power markets' cross-product effects are not adequately addressed by existing univariate approaches.
method Copulas and latent beta regression for modeling high-dimensional intraday price return vector, with time-varying dependence parameter.
result Modeling cross-product effects improves forecasting performance.
TailedTS dataset benchmarks heavy-tailed time series forecasting and periodicity quantification.
problem Benchmarking robustness of time series models under heavy-tailed distributions.
method Derived from Wikipedia page views, introduces periodicity quantification and robust loss functions.
result Standard Gaussian models degrade on high-volume page categories, while robust alternatives perform consistently.
Study decomposes racial healthcare disparities via shifts in mediator distributions.
problem Racial disparities in healthcare expenditures and their underlying drivers.
method Framework decomposing disparities into mediator distribution shifts and residual components, using MEPS data.
result Substantial disparities persist even when mediators are equalized, suggesting unmeasured or structural factors.
FinStressTS creates synthetic benchmarks for financial forecasting, revealing model weaknesses.
problem Limited failure attribution in real-world financial benchmarks.
method Synthetic benchmark with 30 diagnostic environments linked to six mechanism families.
result Model performance varies by mechanism type, with autoregressive models often outperforming Transformers.
The study forecasts hourly intraday electricity prices using ensemble methods.
problem Weak-form efficiency of hourly German Intraday Continuous Market prices.
method Probabilistic forecasting with ensemble trajectories, generalized additive model, and lasso penalty.
result The mixture model outperforms benchmarks in forecasting price distribution and volatility.
New deep learning model estimates scattering timescale of FRBs efficiently.
problem Estimating scattering timescale of fast radio bursts (FRBs) is a bottleneck.
method Multimodal Transformer Based Generic Mixture Density Network (MT-GMDN) that ingests dynamic spectrum and timeseries profile.
result Achieves 94% R2 on expected value of τ for measurable scattering. Develops a two-stage conformal prediction method for Parkinson's disease medication needs.
problem Heterogeneous disease progression and treatment response in Parkinson's Disease.
method Two-stage conformal prediction framework with statistical guarantees.
result Quantifies uncertainty in medication needs predictions, improving clinical trust and quality of life.
This paper establishes conditions for sparse signal recovery with sparse measurements.
problem Recovering the support of a sparse signal using noisy projections with sparse measurement matrices.
method Establishes sufficient conditions for successful sparse recovery using sparse measurement matrices.
result A phase transition threshold for sparse recovery in the sparse setting is discovered, revealing a trade-off between sampling complexity and measurement sparsity.
New hypergraph method improves scRNA-seq clustering.
problem Loss of higher-order information and overestimation in coexpression networks.
method Conceptualizing scRNA-seq data as hypergraphs and proposing novel clustering methods.
result Proposed methods outperform existing methods on simulated and real datasets.