A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is widely regarded as one of the most important algorithms of the 20th century. Its guarantees of asymptotic convergence, stability, and estimator-variance bounds using only unnormalized probability functions make it indispensable to probabilistic programming. In this paper, we introduce…
Conditional expectiles are becoming an increasingly important tool in finance as well as in other areas of applications. We analyse a support vector machine type approach for estimating conditional expectiles and establish learning rates that are minimax optimal modulo a logarithmic factor if Gaussian RBF kernels are u…
In this paper, we obtain generic bounds on the variances of estimation and prediction errors in time series analysis via an information-theoretic approach. It is seen in general that the error bounds are determined by the conditional entropy of the data point to be estimated or predicted given the side information or p…
New bounds show BBVI's gradient variance matches SGD conditions, improving parameterization efficiency.
problem Understanding and improving the convergence of black-box variational inference (BBVI).
method Showed BBVI satisfies matching gradient variance bounds corresponding to the ABC condition for smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods.
result Proven BBVI's gradient variance matches SGD conditions, with superior dimensional dependence for mean-field parameterization.
GS-B3SE improves label shift estimation by smoothing priors on a graph.
problem Label shift adaptation when source and target distributions share conditional but not marginal probabilities.
method Graph-Smoothed Bayesian Black-Box Shift Estimator (GS-B3SE) places Laplacian-Gaussian priors on log-priors and confusion-matrix columns tied by a label-similarity graph.
result GS-B3SE produces a tractable posterior with HMC or Newton-CG schemes, proving identifiability, contraction, and robustness.
In order to mitigate the high communication cost in distributed and federated learning, various vector compression schemes, such as quantization, sparsification and dithering, have become very popular. In designing a compression method, one aims to communicate as few bits as possible, which minimizes the cost per commu…
No feature ranking can be faithful, stable, and complete when features are collinear.
problem The impossibility of creating a feature ranking that is simultaneously faithful, stable, and complete when features are collinear.
method Proving the impossibility, quantifying it for four model classes, resolving it via ensemble averaging (DASH), and machine-verifying it with Lean 4 theorems.
result No method lies outside the dichotomy of faithful-complete methods (unstable, with rankings that flip up to 50% of the time) and ensemble methods (stable, reporting ties for symmetric features).
A large portfolio of independent returns is optimized under the variance risk measure with a ban on short positions. The no-short selling constraint acts as an asymmetric ℓ1 regularizer, setting some of the portfolio weights to zero and keeping the out of sample estimator for the variance bounded, avoiding the di…
Influence maximization (IM) is the problem of finding for a given s≥1 a set S of ∣S∣=s nodes in a network with maximum influence. With stochastic diffusion models, the influence of a set S of seed nodes is defined as the expectation of its reachability over simulations, where each simulation specifies a det…
In experimental design, we are given a large collection of vectors, each with a hidden response value that we assume derives from an underlying linear model, and we wish to pick a small subset of the vectors such that querying the corresponding responses will lead to a good estimator of the model. A classical approach …