This work proposes validation diagnostics for SBI algorithms using Normalizing Flows.
problem Lack of appropriate validation methods for SBI algorithms with complex, high-dimensional data.
method Develops validation diagnostics based on Normalizing Flows with theoretical guarantees.
result Offers theoretical guarantees on consistency of NF-based estimators.
We speed up Gaussian process cross-validation calculations and improve model diagnostics.
problem Efficiently calculating cross-validation residuals and their covariances in Gaussian processes.
method Generalized fast Gaussian process leave-one-out formulae to multiple-fold cross-validation, highlighting covariance structures.
result Correcting for residual covariances in cross-validation improves back to Maximum Likelihood Estimation.
Proposes a framework to explain KS deterioration in credit risk models.
problem Inconsistent and ad hoc diagnosis of KS decline in credit risk models.
method Counterfactual diagnostic framework attributing KS decline to sampling variability, portfolio composition, covariate shift, and residual deterioration.
result The proposed approach provides more interpretable and governance-relevant explanations than threshold-based review alone.
Study validates ML-UQ calibration statistics using simulated reference values.
problem Validation of ML-UQ calibration statistics is lacking due to lack of predefined reference values.
method Proposed validation workflow using simulated reference values derived from synthetic datasets.
result Some statistics, like CC and ENCE, are overly sensitive to generative distribution choice.
TADDAA improves accuracy diagnostics for variational approximations.
problem Challenges in evaluating the accuracy of variational approximations.
method Uses many short parallel MCMC chains to obtain lower bounds on the error of each posterior functional of interest.
result Validates the practical utility and computational efficiency of TADDAA on various models.
The paper breaks down AUC into cluster-level components for better model diagnostics.
problem Global AUC masks weaknesses in specific subpopulations, leading to financial or operational risks.
method Formal decomposition of AUC into intra- and inter-cluster components, comparing with other performance metrics.
result Allows practitioners to evaluate and diagnose model performance within and across clusters.
We consider the problem of locating a point-source heart arrhythmia using data from a standard diagnostic procedure, where a reference catheter is placed in the heart, and arrival times from a second diagnostic catheter are recorded as the diagnostic catheter moves around within the heart. We model this situation as a …
Recent studies have shown promising results in using Deep Learning to detect malignancy in whole slide imaging. However, they were limited to just predicting positive or negative finding for a specific neoplasm. We attempted to use Deep Learning with a convolutional neural network algorithm to build a lymphoma diagnost…
Online symptom checkers have significant potential to improve patient care, however their reliability and accuracy remain variable. We hypothesised that an artificial intelligence (AI) powered triage and diagnostic system would compare favourably with human doctors with respect to triage and diagnostic accuracy. We per…
Machine learning models have spread to almost every area of life. They are successfully applied in biology, medicine, finance, physics, and other fields. With modern software it is easy to train even a~complex model that fits the training data and results in high accuracy on the test set. The problem arises when models…
Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a prevalent long-term neurodegenerative disease. Though the diagnostic criteria of PD are relatively well defined, the current medical imaging diagnostic procedures are expertise-demanding, and thus call for a higher-integrated AI-based diagnostic algorithm. Methods: In this pape…
A new framework bridges classical and machine learning methods for reliable inference from complex models.
problem Intractable likelihood functions in complex systems make classical statistics ineffective for likelihood-free inference.
method Likelihood-Free Frequentist Inference (LF2I) framework that combines classical statistics and machine learning.
result Valid confidence sets with near finite-sample validity can be constructed for any parameter value.
bioLeak addresses data leakage in biomedical machine learning studies.
problem Data leakage causes optimistic bias in machine learning models for biomedical studies.
method bioLeak provides leakage-aware resampling workflows and model audits in R.
result The package supports various machine learning tasks and can detect leakage mechanisms.
Develops a diagnostic framework for interest rate model calibration, showing equivalence to Weighted Least Squares and revealing boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability.
problem Calibration of stochastic interest rate models
method Diagnostic framework using non-linear regression and analytical tractability of At-The-Money caps
result Reveals boundary-dominated leverage and local parameter instability
New diagnostics detect variability in individual risk estimates from machine learning models in healthcare.
problem Variability in individual risk estimates from machine learning models in healthcare, leading to unreliable treatment decisions.
method Proposed evaluation framework using empirical prediction interval width and empirical decision flip rate diagnostics.
result Randomness in optimization and initialization can lead to substantial individual-level variability in risk estimates, affecting clinical decisions.
Paper presents a probabilistic diagnostic model for identifying and treating supervised learning degradation issues.
problem Degradation problems in supervised learning, including class imbalance, overlapping, small-disjuncts, noisy labels, and sparseness.
method Develops a novel probabilistic diagnostic model to identify and treat degradation issues in supervised learning.
result Early and correct diagnosis of degradation issues allows for selecting appropriate remediation treatments and unbiased performance metrics.
GeoTop resolves topological ambiguity in diagnostic imaging using geometric-topological analysis.
problem Topological equivalence between benign and malignant structures in diagnostic images.
method Combines Topological Data Analysis and Lipschitz-Killing Curvatures to resolve ambiguity.
result Achieves 3.6% accuracy improvement and reduces false positives/negatives by 15-18%.
New diagnostic method detects misspecified models in inverse PDE problems.
problem Misleading residual-norm diagnostics in inverse PDE problems.
method Structure-sensitive sequential diagnostic using e-processes.
result Rejects fitted models that produce biased predictions.
Paper uses transfer learning and Bayesian optimization to reduce DNA sequence design experiments.
problem Designing many similar DNA sequences for specific applications is expensive and time-consuming.
method Combines transfer learning with Bayesian optimization to reduce experiment count.
result Total number of experiments can be significantly reduced by sharing information between tasks.
The paper analyzes numerical instability in variational flows and proposes a diagnostic method.
problem Numerical instability in variational flows affects sampling, density evaluation, and ELBO estimation.
method Treated variational flows as dynamical systems, used shadowing theory for theoretical guarantees, and developed a diagnostic procedure.
result Despite numerical instability, results from variational flows can be accurate enough for practical applications.
Quickly adapts fault diagnosis models for industrial machines.
problem Fault diagnostic models trained for lab machines fail on industrial ones.
method Net2Net transformation followed by fine-tuning.
result Models can be quickly adapted for new operating conditions.
Improved 3D ECG feature attributions for clinical interpretation.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models for 12-lead ECG analysis.
method Cross-modal mapping of feature attributions from 12-lead ECG models onto CineECG 3D space.
result Mapped feature attributions yield higher Dice scores than standard 12-lead attributions.
We analyse an issue when comparing survival curves between two subgroups. We show that there is a direct relationship between estimates of subgroups' survival at a time point and positive and negative predictive values in the binary classification settings. Our findings present a case where current methods of comparing…
Data-driven fault diagnostics and prognostics suffers from class-imbalance problem in industrial systems and it raises challenges to common machine learning algorithms as it becomes difficult to learn the features of the minority class samples. Synthetic oversampling methods are commonly used to tackle these problems b…
Paper develops robust econometric methods for staggered adoption studies.
problem Estimation challenges in event studies with staggered adoption.
method Design-first framework with exact probability limits, diagnostics, and orthogonal score constructions.
result Uniformly valid inference under restricted violations of parallel trends.
Bayesian model averaging under predictor redundancy
problem Reporting Bayesian model averaging posterior without changing the Bayesian target
method Using hard or soft regions of support space
result Region reports often give shorter and clearer summaries while preserving the main posterior information
TRACE analyzes risk changes in models trained on shifted data.
problem Understanding performance changes when a model trained on shifted data is used.
method TRACE framework decomposes risk change into four factors: generalization gaps, model change penalty, and covariate shift penalty.
result TRACE provides a diagnostic tool to understand and quantify risk changes due to covariate shift.
Paper introduces SCI to distinguish market signals from coordination.
problem Unclear signals in prediction markets.
method Formalizes SCI, introduces weighted and time-varying extensions.
result Discriminates between market signals and coordination.
This study connects prevalence and machine learning for diagnostic testing.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for diagnostic tests.
method Developed a numerical homotopy algorithm to estimate classification boundaries and quantify uncertainty.
result The proposed method stabilizes uncertainty quantification in machine learning for diagnostic tests.
Paper proposes machine learning model for early Alzheimer's diagnosis.
problem Early and accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's Disease.
method Machine learning models, demographic, biomarker, and cognitive test data.
result 90% accuracy and 87% accuracy in predicting Alzheimer's development.
CJE calibrates cheap LLM judges against an oracle, achieving high accuracy at a fraction of the cost.
problem Inexpensive LLM judges can produce biased rankings, leading to unreliable outcomes.
method CJE uses a small oracle to calibrate cheap scores, then evaluates at scale with valid uncertainty.
result CJE achieves 99% pairwise ranking accuracy at 14x lower cost compared to a 16x oracle/judge cost ratio.
Unified framework detects overfitting in crash classification models.
problem Evaluation metrics fail to detect overfitting in crash classification models.
method Random Matrix Theory and Heavy-Tailed Self-Regularization framework applied to various model types.
result Power-law exponent α reliably distinguishes well-regularized from overfit models.
In order to investigate the breast cancer prediction problem on the aging population with the grades of DCIS, we conduct a tree augmented naive Bayesian network experiment trained and tested on a large clinical dataset including consecutive diagnostic mammography examinations, consequent biopsy outcomes and related can…
Applying machine learning in the health care domain has shown promising results in recent years. Interpretable outputs from learning algorithms are desirable for decision making by health care personnel. In this work, we explore the possibility of utilizing causal relationships to refine diagnostic prediction. We focus…
Objective: Ultrasound elastography is gaining traction as an accessible and useful diagnostic tool for such things as cancer detection and differentiation and thyroid disease diagnostics. Unfortunately, state of the art shear wave imaging techniques, essential to promote this goal, are limited to high-end ultrasound ha…
Establishes statistical and computational bounds for influence diagnostics.
problem Identifying influential datapoints or subsets in machine learning models.
method Finite-sample statistical bounds and computational complexity for influence functions and approximate maximum influence perturbations.
result Established statistical and computational guarantees for influence diagnostics.
The article explains how to estimate confusion matrices for classifiers using unlabeled data.
problem Estimating sensitivity and specificity of binary medical diagnostic tests without gold standard tests.
method Modifying diagnostic test solutions to estimate confusion matrices for classifiers on unlabeled data.
result The approach can be used to estimate accuracy statistics for supervised or unsupervised binary classifiers on unlabeled data.
Simplifies decision-making during medical exams with cost-efficient feature acquisition.
problem Guiding physicians during examination acquisition for accurate and efficient diagnosis.
method Dropout at input layer and integrated gradients at test-time for dynamic feature importance.
result More cost- and feature-efficient than prior approaches, achieving higher overall accuracy.
Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is widely used for evaluating diagnostic systems. Recent studies have shown that estimating an area under ROC curve (AUC) with standard cross-validation methods suffers from a large bias. The leave-pair-out (LPO) cross-validation has been shown to correct this bias. Howe…
DECAT framework evaluates multimodal models for shared biology, detecting confounders and false positives.
problem Determining if multimodal models learn shared biology or just confounders.
method DECAT framework classifies multimodal representations into four diagnostic scenarios using null-referenced metrics.
result DECAT detects confounders and false positives in multimodal models, improving with larger cohorts and stronger representations.
AI enhances cancer diagnostics using spectroscopy.
problem Early and accurate cancer diagnosis.
method Combining AI with spectroscopy-based techniques.
result AI improves cancer diagnostics speed and safety.
Improves visualization of high-dimensional data by correcting misleading artifacts in neighbor embedding methods.
problem Misleading visual artifacts in t-SNE and UMAP due to lack of data-independent manifold learning interpretations.
method LOO-map framework that extends embedding maps to the entire input space, identifying and correcting map discontinuities.
result Developed point-wise diagnostic scores to detect unreliable embedding points and improve hyperparameter selection.
Machine learning model diagnoses COVID-19 from routine blood tests.
problem Difficulty in diagnosing COVID-19 due to inconsistent blood parameter changes.
method Constructed a machine learning model using 5,333 patients with various infections and 160 COVID-19-positive patients.
result Cross-validated AUC of 0.97, sensitivity of 81.9%, specificity of 97.9%.
Paper introduces a diagnostic for approximate inference methods.
problem Estimating errors in probabilistic inference algorithms, especially for approximate methods.
method Repeatedly simulate datasets from the prior and perform inference on each, estimating a symmetric KL-divergence.
result A diagnostic for approximate inference methods can be estimated using symmetric KL-divergence.
In recent years, intelligent condition-based monitor-ing of rotary machinery systems has become a major researchfocus of machine fault diagnosis. In condition-based monitoring,it is challenging to form a large-scale well-annotated datasetdue to the expense of data acquisition and costly annotation.The generated data ha…
Machine learning improves diagnostic test accuracy for bovine tuberculosis.
problem Improving diagnostic test sensitivity for bovine tuberculosis.
method Machine learning to assess risk landscapes and predict infection.
result Test sensitivity improved, detecting 240 more infected herds per year.
Our paper introduces an efficient combination of established techniques to improve classifier performance, in terms of accuracy and training time. We achieve two-fold to ten-fold speedup in nearing state of the art accuracy, over different model architectures, by dynamically tuning the learning rate. We find it especia…
Generative models often fail to preserve joint structure despite matching marginals.
problem Generative models fail to capture complex dependencies beyond univariate marginals.
method Introduced D_Sigma(P,Q) = ||Sigma_P - Sigma_Q||_F to measure covariance-level dependence fidelity.
result Covariance-level divergence can lead to structural instability in downstream inference.