A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
PriceAggregator optimizes hotel price fetching to increase Agoda's bookings.
Data science principles enhance AI interpretability for better user control.
Recommender systems often rely on models which are trained to maximize accuracy in predicting user preferences. When the systems are deployed, these models determine the availability of content and information to different users. The gap between these objectives gives rise to a potential for unintended consequences, co…
A new hierarchy quantifies agency in systems based on information processing.
The credit crisis of 2007 and 2008 has thrown much focus on the models used to price mortgage backed securities. Many institutions have relied heavily on the credit ratings provided by credit agency. The relationships between management of credit agencies and debt issuers may have resulted in conflict of interest when …
SPAC data shows premium investors get better terms, non-premium get quid pro quo deals.
Transportation agencies have an opportunity to leverage increasingly-available trajectory datasets to improve their analyses and decision-making processes. However, this data is typically purchased from vendors, which means agencies must understand its potential benefits beforehand in order to properly assess its value…
Central Counterparties (CCPs) are widely promoted as a requirement for safe banking with little dissent except on technical grounds (such as proliferation of CCPs). Whilst CCPs can have major operational positives, we argue that CCPs have many of the business characteristics of Rating Agencies, and face similar busines…
Labeling training data is increasingly the largest bottleneck in deploying machine learning systems. We present Snorkel, a first-of-its-kind system that enables users to train state-of-the-art models without hand labeling any training data. Instead, users write labeling functions that express arbitrary heuristics, whic…
Research funding agencies routinely use a proportion of their total revenues to support internal administration and marketing costs. The ratio of administration to total costs, referred to as the administration ratio, is highly variable and within any single fund depends on many factors including the number and average…
We propose a betting strategy based on Bayesian logistic regression modeling for the probability forecasting game in the framework of game-theoretic probability by Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove some results concerning the strong law of large numbers in the probability forecasting game with side information based on …
Humans are the final decision makers in critical tasks that involve ethical and legal concerns, ranging from recidivism prediction, to medical diagnosis, to fighting against fake news. Although machine learning models can sometimes achieve impressive performance in these tasks, these tasks are not amenable to full auto…
Among American women, the rate of breast cancer is only second to lung cancer. An estimated 12.4% women will develop breast cancer over the course of their lifetime. The widespread use of social media across the socio-economic spectrum offers unparalleled ways to facilitate information sharing, in particular as it pert…
In this paper the problem of optimal derivative design, profit maximization and risk minimization under adverse selection when multiple agencies compete for the business of a continuum of heterogenous agents is studied. The presence of ties in the agents' best-response correspondences yields discontinuous payoff functi…
The unevenness importance of criminal activities in the onion domains of the Tor Darknet and the different levels of their appeal to the end-user make them tangled to measure their influence. To this end, this paper presents a novel content-based ranking framework to detect the most influential onion domains. Our appro…
This paper focuses on the problem of estimating historical traffic volumes between sparsely-located traffic sensors, which transportation agencies need to accurately compute statewide performance measures. To this end, the paper examines applications of vehicle probe data, automatic traffic recorder counts, and neural …
Fed-FEARE model extracts rules from multiple agencies' data securely.
AI classifies tourist events for better service.
AI system narrows human decision options for better outcomes.
Paper tackles ESG rating disagreement in sustainable investing portfolios.
We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel t…
This paper examines how ESG factors influence sovereign bond yields and credit ratings.
We propose an indicator to measure the degree to which a particular news article is novel, as well as an indicator to measure the degree to which a particular news item attracts attention from investors. The novelty measure is obtained by comparing the extent to which a particular news article is similar to earlier new…
We reformulate the Cont-Bouchaud model of financial markets in terms of classical "super-spins" where the spin value is a measure of the number of individual traders represented by a portfolio manager of an investment agency. We then extend this simplified model by switching on interactions among the super-spins to mod…
Social media has recently emerged as a premier method to disseminate information online. Through these online networks, tens of millions of individuals communicate their thoughts, personal experiences, and social ideals. We therefore explore the potential of social media to predict, even prior to onset, Major Depressiv…
Access to food assistance programs such as food pantries and food banks needs focus in order to mitigate food insecurity. Accessibility to the food assistance programs is impacted by demographics of the population and geography of the location. It hence becomes imperative to define and identify food assistance deserts …
Paper presents a model for identifying informative COVID-19 tweets.
In this paper, we propose a methodology based on piece-wise homogeneous Markov chain for credit ratings and a multivariate model of the credit spreads to evaluate the financial risk in European Union (EU). Two main aspects are considered: how the financial risk is distributed among the European countries and how large …
Collective motion is an intriguing phenomenon, especially considering that it arises from a set of simple rules governing local interactions between individuals. In theoretical models, these rules are normally \emph{assumed} to take a particular form, possibly constrained by heuristic arguments. We propose a new class …
The paper defines fair profit sharing ratios in Islamic PL contracts.
Efficiently preserves privacy in logistic regression for IoT data.
Study optimal contracts for pandemic risk, offering fixed shares and prevention mechanisms.
Machine learning methods have gained a great deal of popularity in recent years among public administration scholars and practitioners. These techniques open the door to the analysis of text, image and other types of data that allow us to test foundational theories of public administration and to develop new theories. …
The quality of machine translation is rapidly evolving. Today one can find several machine translation systems on the web that provide reasonable translations, although the systems are not perfect. In some specific domains, the quality may decrease. A recently proposed approach to this domain is neural machine translat…
Optimal linear contracts are possible even with memory in Gaussian settings.
CovidSens uses social media to track COVID-19 spread.
We introduce a model in which a regulator employs mechanism design to embed her human capital beta signal(s) in a firm's capital structure, in order to enhance the value of her post career change indexed executive stock option contract with the firm. We prove that the agency cost of this revolving door behavior increas…
Regshock visualizes financial risks to help regulators manage systemic shocks.
Optimal liquidation using VWAP strategies has been considered in the literature, though never in the presence of permanent market impact and only rarely with execution costs. Moreover, only VWAP strategies have been studied and the pricing of guaranteed VWAP contracts has never been addressed. In this article, we devel…
The objective of this article is to analyze the impact of capital structure on profitability. This impact can be explained by three essential theories: signaling theory, tax theory and the agency costs theory. A sample of 1846 French industrial firms are taken over the period 1999-2006, as a dynamic panel study by usin…
Paper analyzes deep learning models for credit rating prediction using text and numerical data.
Study improves pension scheme efficiency in Kenya through governance and risk management.
Current study aims to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of debt on corporate profitability. This impact can be explained by three essential theories: signaling theory, tax theory and the agency cost theory. Using panel data sample of 2240 French non listed companies of service sector during 1999-2006. By uti…
We consider the problem of identifying current coupons for Agency backed To-be-Announced (TBA) Mortgage Backed Securities. In a doubly stochastic factor based model which allows for prepayment intensities to depend upon current and origination mortgage rates, as well as underlying investment factors, we identify the cu…
System uses conformal prediction to help experts make accurate decisions without understanding when to trust it.
Money is a technology for promoting economic prosperity. Over history money has become increasingly abstract, it used to be hardware, gold coins and the like, now it is mostly software, data structures located in banks. Here I propose the logical conclusion of the abstraction of money: to use as money the most general …
Goal-directed manipulation of representations is a key element of human flexible behaviour, while consciousness is often related to several aspects of higher-order cognition and human flexibility. Currently these two phenomena are only partially integrated (e.g., see Neurorepresentationalism) and this (a) limits our un…
Gamification enhances law enforcement training on terrorism financing.