A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
A new hierarchy quantifies agency in systems based on information processing.
The credit crisis of 2007 and 2008 has thrown much focus on the models used to price mortgage backed securities. Many institutions have relied heavily on the credit ratings provided by credit agency. The relationships between management of credit agencies and debt issuers may have resulted in conflict of interest when …
SPAC data shows premium investors get better terms, non-premium get quid pro quo deals.
Transportation agencies have an opportunity to leverage increasingly-available trajectory datasets to improve their analyses and decision-making processes. However, this data is typically purchased from vendors, which means agencies must understand its potential benefits beforehand in order to properly assess its value…
Central Counterparties (CCPs) are widely promoted as a requirement for safe banking with little dissent except on technical grounds (such as proliferation of CCPs). Whilst CCPs can have major operational positives, we argue that CCPs have many of the business characteristics of Rating Agencies, and face similar busines…
Research funding agencies routinely use a proportion of their total revenues to support internal administration and marketing costs. The ratio of administration to total costs, referred to as the administration ratio, is highly variable and within any single fund depends on many factors including the number and average…
We propose a betting strategy based on Bayesian logistic regression modeling for the probability forecasting game in the framework of game-theoretic probability by Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove some results concerning the strong law of large numbers in the probability forecasting game with side information based on …
Humans are the final decision makers in critical tasks that involve ethical and legal concerns, ranging from recidivism prediction, to medical diagnosis, to fighting against fake news. Although machine learning models can sometimes achieve impressive performance in these tasks, these tasks are not amenable to full auto…
In this paper the problem of optimal derivative design, profit maximization and risk minimization under adverse selection when multiple agencies compete for the business of a continuum of heterogenous agents is studied. The presence of ties in the agents' best-response correspondences yields discontinuous payoff functi…
This paper focuses on the problem of estimating historical traffic volumes between sparsely-located traffic sensors, which transportation agencies need to accurately compute statewide performance measures. To this end, the paper examines applications of vehicle probe data, automatic traffic recorder counts, and neural …
Fed-FEARE model extracts rules from multiple agencies' data securely.
AI system narrows human decision options for better outcomes.
Paper tackles ESG rating disagreement in sustainable investing portfolios.
We present an analysis of oil prices in US$ and in other major currencies that diagnoses unsustainable faster-than-exponential behavior. This supports the hypothesis that the recent oil price run-up has been amplified by speculative behavior of the type found during a bubble-like expansion. We also attempt to unravel t…
This paper examines how ESG factors influence sovereign bond yields and credit ratings.
We propose an indicator to measure the degree to which a particular news article is novel, as well as an indicator to measure the degree to which a particular news item attracts attention from investors. The novelty measure is obtained by comparing the extent to which a particular news article is similar to earlier new…
We reformulate the Cont-Bouchaud model of financial markets in terms of classical "super-spins" where the spin value is a measure of the number of individual traders represented by a portfolio manager of an investment agency. We then extend this simplified model by switching on interactions among the super-spins to mod…
Access to food assistance programs such as food pantries and food banks needs focus in order to mitigate food insecurity. Accessibility to the food assistance programs is impacted by demographics of the population and geography of the location. It hence becomes imperative to define and identify food assistance deserts …
Paper presents a model for identifying informative COVID-19 tweets.
In this paper, we propose a methodology based on piece-wise homogeneous Markov chain for credit ratings and a multivariate model of the credit spreads to evaluate the financial risk in European Union (EU). Two main aspects are considered: how the financial risk is distributed among the European countries and how large …
Collective motion is an intriguing phenomenon, especially considering that it arises from a set of simple rules governing local interactions between individuals. In theoretical models, these rules are normally \emph{assumed} to take a particular form, possibly constrained by heuristic arguments. We propose a new class …
The paper defines fair profit sharing ratios in Islamic PL contracts.
Efficiently preserves privacy in logistic regression for IoT data.
Study optimal contracts for pandemic risk, offering fixed shares and prevention mechanisms.
Machine learning methods have gained a great deal of popularity in recent years among public administration scholars and practitioners. These techniques open the door to the analysis of text, image and other types of data that allow us to test foundational theories of public administration and to develop new theories. …
The quality of machine translation is rapidly evolving. Today one can find several machine translation systems on the web that provide reasonable translations, although the systems are not perfect. In some specific domains, the quality may decrease. A recently proposed approach to this domain is neural machine translat…
Optimal linear contracts are possible even with memory in Gaussian settings.
We introduce a model in which a regulator employs mechanism design to embed her human capital beta signal(s) in a firm's capital structure, in order to enhance the value of her post career change indexed executive stock option contract with the firm. We prove that the agency cost of this revolving door behavior increas…
PriceAggregator optimizes hotel price fetching to increase Agoda's bookings.
Data science principles enhance AI interpretability for better user control.
Regshock visualizes financial risks to help regulators manage systemic shocks.
Optimal liquidation using VWAP strategies has been considered in the literature, though never in the presence of permanent market impact and only rarely with execution costs. Moreover, only VWAP strategies have been studied and the pricing of guaranteed VWAP contracts has never been addressed. In this article, we devel…
The objective of this article is to analyze the impact of capital structure on profitability. This impact can be explained by three essential theories: signaling theory, tax theory and the agency costs theory. A sample of 1846 French industrial firms are taken over the period 1999-2006, as a dynamic panel study by usin…
Paper analyzes deep learning models for credit rating prediction using text and numerical data.
Study improves pension scheme efficiency in Kenya through governance and risk management.
Current study aims to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of debt on corporate profitability. This impact can be explained by three essential theories: signaling theory, tax theory and the agency cost theory. Using panel data sample of 2240 French non listed companies of service sector during 1999-2006. By uti…
We consider the problem of identifying current coupons for Agency backed To-be-Announced (TBA) Mortgage Backed Securities. In a doubly stochastic factor based model which allows for prepayment intensities to depend upon current and origination mortgage rates, as well as underlying investment factors, we identify the cu…
System uses conformal prediction to help experts make accurate decisions without understanding when to trust it.
Money is a technology for promoting economic prosperity. Over history money has become increasingly abstract, it used to be hardware, gold coins and the like, now it is mostly software, data structures located in banks. Here I propose the logical conclusion of the abstraction of money: to use as money the most general …
Goal-directed manipulation of representations is a key element of human flexible behaviour, while consciousness is often related to several aspects of higher-order cognition and human flexibility. Currently these two phenomena are only partially integrated (e.g., see Neurorepresentationalism) and this (a) limits our un…
To ensure the security of the general mass, crime prevention is one of the most higher priorities for any government. An accurate crime prediction model can help the government, law enforcement to prevent violence, detect the criminals in advance, allocate the government resources, and recognize problems causing crimes…
New decision support systems use prediction sets to help experts update their predictions, improving performance.
For Portugal there are few or none works about the international trade of fruits between Portugal and the other countries. In this work it aims to analyze the more recent data for the Portuguese international trade of fruits. They were used data for the years from 2006 to 2010, available by the INE (Statistics Portugal…
This study compares neural networks, SVM, and decision trees for corporate credit rating predictions.
Satellite imaging is a critical technology for monitoring and responding to natural disasters such as flooding. Despite the capabilities of modern satellites, there is still much to be desired from the perspective of first response organisations like UNICEF. Two main challenges are rapid access to data, and the ability…
Managing large-scale transportation infrastructure projects is difficult due to frequent misinformation about the costs which results in large cost overruns that often threaten the overall project viability. This paper investigates the explanations for cost overruns that are given in the literature. Overall, four categ…
We investigate relationship between annual electric power consumption per capita and gross domestic production (GDP) per capita for 131 countries. We found that the relationship can be fitted with a power-law function. We examine the relationship for 47 prefectures in Japan. Furthermore, we investigate values of annual…
Strategic behaviour is one of the main explanations for cost overruns. It can theoretically be supported by agency theory, in which strategic behaviour is the result of asymmetric information between the principal and agent. This paper gives a formal account of this relation by a signalling game. This is a game with in…