A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Sandbox LAND prices differ based on unit of account, affecting investment returns.
New method estimates treatment effects in network data, accounting for spillover effects.
The impact of the maximally possible batch size (for the better runtime) on performance of graphic processing units (GPU) and tensor processing units (TPU) during training and inference phases is investigated. The numerous runs of the selected deep neural network (DNN) were performed on the standard MNIST and Fashion-M…
Wasserstein t-SNE embeds hierarchical datasets considering within-unit distributions.
The advance of modern sensor technologies enables collection of multi-stream longitudinal data where multiple signals from different units are collected in real-time. In this article, we present a non-parametric approach to predict the evolution of multi-stream longitudinal data for an in-service unit through borrowing…
Foreign exchange markets show that currency units (= accounting or nominal price units) are variables. Technical and economic progress evidence that the consumer baskets (= purchasing power units or real price units) are also variables. In contrast, all physical measurement units are constants and either defined in the…
Study causal effects on humans in mixed human-AI systems with unobserved unit types.
Unit-free approach to Jacobi geometry and Hamiltonian mechanics.
Convolutional neural networks (CNN) are generally designed with a heuristic initialization of network architecture and trained for a certain task. This often leads to overparametrization after learning and induces redundancy in the information flow paths within the network. This robustness and reliability is at the inc…
New model tackles interference in online experiments.
We give a foundational account on topological racks and quandles. Specifically, we define the notions of ideals, kernels, units, and inner automorphism group in the context of topological racks. Further, we investigate topological rack modules and principal rack bundles. Central extensions of topological racks are then…
Currently, pension providers are running into trouble mainly due to the ultra-low interest rates and the guarantees associated to some pension benefits. With the aim of reducing the pension volatility and providing adequate pension levels with no guarantees, we carry out mathematical analysis of a new pension design in…
New framework improves text watermark detection under imperfect pseudorandomness.
Two networks are equivalent if they produce the same output for any given input. In this paper, we study the possibility of transforming a deep neural network to another network with a different number of units or layers, which can be either equivalent, a local exact approximation, or a global linear approximation of t…
The paper addresses Qini curve estimation under clustered network interference.
We aim to create the highest possible quality of treatment-control matches for categorical data in the potential outcomes framework. Matching methods are heavily used in the social sciences due to their interpretability, but most matching methods do not pass basic sanity checks: they fail when irrelevant variables are …
In this thesis we revise the concept of phase space in modern physics and devise a way to explicitly incorporate physical dimension into geometric mechanics. A historical account of metrology and phase space is given to illustrate the disconnect between the theoretical physical models in use today and the formal treatm…
In this paper, we study the design and analysis of experiments conducted on a set of units over multiple time periods where the starting time of the treatment may vary by unit. The design problem involves selecting an initial treatment time for each unit in order to most precisely estimate both the instantaneous and cu…
We propose a feed-forward inference method applicable to belief and neural networks. In a belief network, the method estimates an approximate factorized posterior of all hidden units given the input. In neural networks the method propagates uncertainty of the input through all the layers. In neural networks with inject…
New method removes interference bias in causal models.
CTRNNs improve blood glucose forecasting in ICU, outperforming traditional models.
Text documents are structured on multiple levels of detail: individual words are related by syntax, but larger units of text are related by discourse structure. Existing language models generally fail to account for discourse structure, but it is crucial if we are to have language models that reward coherence and gener…
We develop a cross-sectional research design to identify causal effects in the presence of unobservable heterogeneity without instruments. When units are dense in physical space, it may be sufficient to regress the "spatial first differences" (SFD) of the outcome on the treatment and omit all covariates. The identifyin…
We develop a novel method for counterfactual analysis based on observational data using prediction intervals for units under different exposures. Unlike methods that target heterogeneous or conditional average treatment effects of an exposure, the proposed approach aims to take into account the irreducible dispersions …
IDA makes DFMM's asset tradeable, enhancing cross-chain finance efficiency.
In this work, we attempt to ameliorate the impact of data sparsity in the context of session-based recommendation. Specifically, we seek to devise a machine learning mechanism capable of extracting subtle and complex underlying temporal dynamics in the observed session data, so as to inform the recommendation algorithm…
Quantitative analysis of order-splitting behavior in Japanese stock market.
This paper proposes a paradigm shift in the valuation of long term annuities, away from classical no-arbitrage valuation towards valuation under the real world probability measure. Furthermore, we apply this valuation method to two examples of annuity products, one having annual payments linked to a mortality index and…
New model maps malaria prevalence across Kenya's changing administrative boundaries.
PePR scores assess DL model performance per resource unit, promoting smaller, more efficient models.
CA-PCA improves manifold dimension estimation by accounting for curvature.
This article presents a preliminary approach towards characterizing political fake news on Twitter through the analysis of their meta-data. In particular, we focus on more than 1.5M tweets collected on the day of the election of Donald Trump as 45th president of the United States of America. We use the meta-data embedd…
Flexible framework assesses multilevel data group heterogeneity.
Social networking sites such as Twitter have provided a great opportunity for organizations such as public libraries to disseminate information for public relations purposes. However, there is a need to analyze vast amounts of social media data. This study presents a computational approach to explore the content of twe…
This paper demonstrates the usefulness and importance of the concept of honest times to financial modeling. It studies a financial market with asset prices that follow jump-diffusions with negative jumps. The central building block of the market model is its growth optimal portfolio (GOP), which maximizes the growth ra…
We consider the optimal trade execution strategies for a large portfolio of single stocks proposed by Almgren (2003). This framework accounts for a nonlinear impact of trades on average market prices. The results of Almgren (2003) are based on the assumption that no shares of assets per unit of time are trade at the be…
Develops FSC for maxima nominated samples, improving classification in rare-event data.
In a recent paper in this journal [J. Stat. Mech. (2009) P02037] we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes having its roots in the framework of the k-generalized statistical mechanics. The performance of the k-generalized distribution was checked against real data on…
Traditional topic models do not account for semantic regularities in language. Recent distributional representations of words exhibit semantic consistency over directional metrics such as cosine similarity. However, neither categorical nor Gaussian observational distributions used in existing topic models are appropria…
Using the United Nations COMTRADE database we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004-2016. Our approach allows to determine the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taki…
Bayesian model detects internal bleeding in ICU patients.
Machine learning predicts homicide clearance rates with SHAP explaining key features.
Proposes CoDEAL for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data models.
Machine learning predicts US and EuroZone business cycles with high accuracy.
This paper proposes recurrent neuron networks (RNNs) for a fingerprinting indoor localization using WiFi. Instead of locating user's position one at a time as in the cases of conventional algorithms, our RNN solution aims at trajectory positioning and takes into account the relation among the received signal strength i…
Robust policies improve ICU transfer outcomes by predicting patient deterioration.
The bienergy of smooth maps between Riemannian manifolds, when restricted to unit vector fields, yields two different variational problems depending on whether one takes the full functional or just the vertical contribution. Their critical points, called biharmonic unit vector fields and biharmonic unit sections, form …
We present a domain-general account of causation that applies to settings in which macro-level causal relations between two systems are of interest, but the relevant causal features are poorly understood and have to be aggregated from vast arrays of micro-measurements. Our approach generalizes that of Chalupka et al. (…