A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The paper studies geometric properties of quasi-trees and tree approximations.
Paper studies ensemble probabilistic regression trees for smooth approximations.
Single tree outperforms random forest in testing accuracy.
Digital trees have approximate fixed point property, and conditions for products are explored.
In this paper, we present a general, multistage framework for graphical model approximation using a cascade of models such as trees. In particular, we look at the problem of covariance matrix approximation for Gaussian distributions as linear transformations of tree models. This is a new way to decompose the covariance…
Tree-AMP simplifies inference in complex tree-structured models.
This paper approximates 1-Wasserstein distance using tree-based embedding.
Tree ensembles, such as random forest and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance, whereas their interpretability is critically limited. In this paper, we propose a post processing method that improves the model interpretability of tree ensembles. After learning a complex tree ensembles in a s…
This paper finds efficient algorithms for approximating Markov networks with k-tree topologies.
Bottom-Up Hidden Tree Markov Model is a highly expressive model for tree-structured data. Unfortunately, it cannot be used in practice due to the intractable size of its state-transition matrix. We propose a new approximation which lies on the Tucker factorisation of tensors. The probabilistic interpretation of such ap…
Dynamic trees are mixtures of tree structured belief networks. They solve some of the problems of fixed tree networks at the cost of making exact inference intractable. For this reason approximate methods such as sampling or mean field approaches have been used. However, mean field approximations assume a factorized di…
Improved phylogenetic inference using VBPI-Mixtures for tree topology and branch length.
Recently, variational approximations such as the mean field approximation have received much interest. We extend the standard mean field method by using an approximating distribution that factorises into cluster potentials. This includes undirected graphs, directed acyclic graphs and junction trees. We derive generaliz…
We introduce block-tree graphs as a framework for deriving efficient algorithms on graphical models. We define block-tree graphs as a tree-structured graph where each node is a cluster of nodes such that the clusters in the graph are disjoint. This differs from junction-trees, where two clusters connected by an edge al…
We introduce a new spatial data structure for high dimensional data called the \emph{approximate principal direction tree} (APD tree) that adapts to the intrinsic dimension of the data. Our algorithm ensures vector-quantization accuracy similar to that of computationally-expensive PCA trees with similar time-complexity…
Paper presents a new method for learning hyperbolic representations using tree structures.
Improves clustering interpretability with decision trees.
In this paper, we propose a generic framework for devising an adaptive approximation scheme for value function approximation in reinforcement learning, which introduces multiscale approximation. The two basic ingredients are multiresolution analysis as well as tree approximation. Starting from simple refinable function…
Deep forests enhance expressiveness exponentially with depth, not width or tree size.
A theory for approximating complex concepts with simple decision trees.
Multi-stage financial decision optimization under uncertainty depends on a careful numerical approximation of the underlying stochastic process, which describes the future returns of the selected assets or asset categories. Various approaches towards an optimal generation of discrete-time, discrete-state approximations…
Tree tensor networks balance model complexity and empirical risk for high-dimensional function approximation.
Study validates numerical method for singular FBSDEs convergence.
We introduce a new class of lower bounds on the log partition function of a Markov random field which makes use of a reversed Jensen's inequality. In particular, our method approximates the intractable distribution using a linear combination of spanning trees with negative weights. This technique is a lower-bound count…
A general method to construct recombinant tree approximations for stochastic volatility models is developed and applied to the Heston model for stock price dynamics. In this application, the resulting approximation is a four tuple Markov process. The first two components are related to the stock and volatility processe…
TREX explains tree ensembles by identifying key training examples.
Prediction suffix trees (PST) provide an effective tool for sequence modelling and prediction. Current prediction techniques for PSTs rely on exact matching between the suffix of the current sequence and the previously observed sequence. We present a provably correct algorithm for learning a PST with approximate suffix…
Innovative PGMs match neural networks, revealing precise approximations during forward propagation.
Bayesian learning for forests and trees improves graph detection and structure learning.
Paper develops a new method for game options in local volatility models.
Approximates large Random Forest models to save space.
Tree ensembles, such as random forests and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance. However, their interpretability is critically limited due to the enormous complexity. In this study, we present a method to make a complex tree ensemble interpretable by simplifying the model. Specifically, we …
The ability to adequately model risks is crucial for insurance companies. The method of "Copula-based hierarchical risk aggregation" by Arbenz et al. offers a flexible way in doing so and has attracted much attention recently. We briefly introduce the aggregation tree model as well as the sampling algorithm proposed by…
The problem of maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation of discrete tree-structured distributions is considered. Chow and Liu established that ML-estimation reduces to the construction of a maximum-weight spanning tree using the empirical mutual information quantities as the edge weights. Using the theory of large-deviations…
Several classification methods assume that the underlying distributions follow tree-structured graphical models. Indeed, trees capture statistical dependencies between pairs of variables, which may be crucial to attain low classification errors. The resulting classifier is linear in the log-transformed univariate and b…
Label tree-based algorithms are widely used to tackle multi-class and multi-label problems with a large number of labels. We focus on a particular subclass of these algorithms that use probabilistic classifiers in the tree nodes. Examples of such algorithms are hierarchical softmax (HSM), designed for multi-class class…
Adaptive approximations improve variational inference for complex models.
This paper proposes an online tree-based Bayesian approach for reinforcement learning. For inference, we employ a generalised context tree model. This defines a distribution on multivariate Gaussian piecewise-linear models, which can be updated in closed form. The tree structure itself is constructed using the cover tr…
Approximate nearest neighbor algorithms are used to speed up nearest neighbor search in a wide array of applications. However, current indexing methods feature several hyperparameters that need to be tuned to reach an acceptable accuracy--speed trade-off. A grid search in the parameter space is often impractically slow…
SketchBoost accelerates GBDT for multioutput problems up to 40x.
Study improves probabilistic circuits using transformations for better predictions.
In this paper we propose a method to build a neural network that is similar to an ensemble of decision trees. We first illustrate how to convert a learned ensemble of decision trees to a single neural network with one hidden layer and an input transformation. We then relax some properties of this network such as thresh…
NSOTree combines neural networks and trees for better survival analysis interpretability.
Develops a variational method for ultrametric phylogenetic trees.
TQ separates sampling and integration for high-dimensional integrals.
Paper shows MCTS approximates policy optimization, proposing an improved variant.
Bayesian context trees capture complex dependencies in categorical sequences.
Improved DP KDE with better privacy and efficiency.