This paper calculates worst-case target semi-variances for uncertain losses.
problem Managing risk when loss distribution is uncertain and only partial information is known.
method Derives worst-case target semi-variances for symmetric or non-negative losses under uncertainty sets representing investor's undesirable scenarios.
result Closed-form expressions for worst-case target semi-variances are derived.
The paper introduces a new Gaussian Process model that learns target variance in multi-modal data.
problem Learning target variance in multi-modal data distributions.
method The approach involves metric learning over data centers, each with its own kernel metric and precision matrix.
result The model demonstrates improved reliability in learning target variance in multi-modal data.
A new statistical concept, lepto-variance, is defined for stock returns using Regression Trees.
problem Understanding the underlying structure of stock returns using statistical methods.
method Defining lepto-variance as the variance that cannot be removed by any regression tree of a specific depth and analyzing stock returns with 1- and 2-bit Regression Trees.
result Lepto-variance quantifies the resolving power of Regression Trees for stock returns, decomposing total variance into lepto-variance and macro-variance.
This paper studies a continuous-time market where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a targeted terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return. The optimal portfolio of such a problem is called mean-variance efficient à la Markowitz. It is shown that, when the market coefficients a…
Improved sampling efficiency for inverse problems using variance-reduced diffusion methods.
problem Efficiently estimating noisy scores in inverse problems.
method Developed a nonparametric self-normalized importance sampling estimator and a state-dependent blending rule.
result Improved sample quality for fixed simulation budgets in synthetic targets and PDE-governed inverse problems.
This paper improves traditional Markowitz optimization by considering variance at multiple time scales.
problem Traditional Markowitz optimization limits to a single time scale, ignoring variance across different frequencies.
method Introduces multifrequency optimization allowing specification of target Hurst exponents across multiple time scales.
result Effective risk management strategy that aligns with investor preferences at various time scales.
Federated learning method improves covariate shift adaptation for missing target values.
problem Missing target values in federated learning.
method Federated covariate shift adaptation algorithm for missing target output values.
result Asymptotically unbiased and efficient algorithm for federated learning.
Regularization helps resolve ambiguity in mean-variance models, improving predictive uncertainty quantification.
problem Signal-to-noise ambiguity in overparameterized mean-variance models.
method Statistical field theory framework to explain phase transition.
result Regularization reduces variability and improves predictive uncertainty quantification.
Novel hyperparameter optimization for target tasks under covariate shift.
problem Hyperparameter optimization under multi-source covariate shift.
method Construct variance reduced estimator to unbiasedly approximate target objective; propose no-regret hyperparameter optimization procedure.
result Proposed framework broadens applications of automated hyperparameter optimization.
Proposes a novel MTL approach based on bias-variance analysis.
problem Improving multi-task learning performance through shared knowledge.
method Two-phase iterative aggregation of targets and features using bias-variance analysis.
result Validation on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Introduce a variance-weighted batch distribution for diverse sampling in diffusion models.
problem Independent sampling in diffusion models.
method Introduce a variance-weighted batch distribution.
result Sampler with a transparent probabilistic target.
Concept-driven OPE reduces variance in off-policy decision evaluation.
problem High variance in off-policy decision evaluation due to limited sample sizes.
method Integrating human-explainable concepts into OPE to reduce variance.
result Concept-based OPE estimators remain unbiased and reduce variance when concepts are known and predefined.
TransCal calibrates DA models with lower bias and variance.
problem Calibrating DA models to estimate accurate predictive uncertainty.
method Transferable Calibration (TransCal) in a unified hyperparameter-free optimization framework.
result TransCal achieves more accurate calibration with lower bias and variance.
VA-OPE improves OPE by incorporating variance information, achieving tighter error bounds.
problem Estimating value function of a target policy from offline data collected by a behavior policy.
method Proposes VA-OPE, an algorithm that reweights Bellman residual using estimated variance of the value function.
result Achieves a tighter error bound than the best-known result.
Paper estimates EOT maps for non-compactly supported measures with subGaussian target.
problem Estimating EOT maps between non-compactly supported measures.
method Uses bias-variance decomposition, T1-transport inequalities, and concentration of measure results.
result Shows error decay rates for different cases of subGaussian measures.
Improves off-policy RL stability with RIS.
problem Stability issues in off-policy RL due to distributional mismatch.
method Relative Importance Sampling (RIS) for off-policy actor-critic.
result RIS stabilizes RL learning by reducing variance.
TVR optimizes black-box simulators by targeting variance reduction over control and noise parameters.
problem Optimizing black-box simulators with uncertain parameters.
method Targeted Variance Reduction (TVR) method that optimizes (x,θ) jointly. result Improved robust optimization performance over state-of-the-art methods.
Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores
problem Identifying test candidates whose unknown responses fall in a target region while controlling the false discovery rate
method Membership-score-based conformal selection
result Finite-sample valid null p-values
When we implement a portfolio selection methodology under a mean-risk formulation, it is essential to correctly model investors' risk aversion which may be time-dependent, or even state-dependent during the investment procedure. In this paper, we propose a behavior risk aversion model, which is a piecewise linear funct…
Paper provides variance bounds for variational inference.
problem Understanding the variance of stochastic gradient estimators in variational inference.
method Analyzes reparameterization estimators under smoothness and location-scale assumptions.
result Gives provable bounds on gradient variance, showing they are optimal under stated conditions.
The paper investigates how target normalization and momentum affect dying ReLUs in neural networks.
problem Understanding and mitigating the dying ReLU problem in neural networks.
method Empirical analysis and theoretical modeling of a discrete-time linear autonomous system.
result Target variance plays a crucial role in the dying ReLU phenomenon, and momentum exacerbates this issue.
Gaussian processes over graphs enforce specific signal profiles and outperform conventional GPs.
problem Signal processing over graphs with specific profiles.
method Graph Laplacian regularization to enforce desired signal profiles, proving predictive variance advantage.
result Gaussian processes over graphs have strictly smaller predictive variance than conventional GPs.
A new update rule for deep reinforcement learning reduces learning variance and variance in reference signals.
problem Learning variance and incorrect reference signals in deep reinforcement learning.
method t-soft update method inspired by student-t distribution, which reduces extreme updates and accelerates similar updates.
result The t-soft update method outperforms conventional methods in terms of return and variance in PyBullet robotics simulations.
New dropout technique reduces variance and overestimation in deep Q-Learning.
problem Reduction of variance and overestimation in deep Q-Learning.
method Using Dropout techniques to reduce variance and overestimation in deep Q-Learning.
result Demonstrated effectiveness in enhancing stability and reducing both variance and overestimation.
Paper introduces a new policy optimization method using importance sampling.
problem Stable and low variance policy learning with small policy updates.
method Derives an alternative objective using importance sampling and introduces an approximation to balance bias and variance.
result The new algorithm improves on-policy policy optimization on continuous control benchmarks.
Optimizes target value in stochastic black box functions.
problem Finding input to minimize expected squared error to target value.
method Derives acquisition functions for expected improvement, probability of improvement, and lower confidence bound, assuming Gaussian aleatoric effects.
result Acquisition functions can outperform classical Bayesian optimization under certain conditions.
The paper proposes a method to adapt models from source to target domains by calibrating their predictive uncertainties.
problem Inferring class labels for unlabeled target domain given a related labeled source dataset.
method The approach involves calibrating predictive uncertainties quantified as Renyi entropy, using variational Bayes learning and sample variance regularization.
result The proposed method effectively adapts models across three domain-adaptation tasks.
Improved LLM pre-training performance through better weight and variance control.
problem Improper weight and variance control in LLM pre-training affects downstream task performance.
method Introduced Layer Index Rescaling (LIR) and Target Variance Rescaling (TVR) techniques.
result Substantial improvements in downstream task performance (up to 4.6%) and reduced extreme activation values.
This paper analyzes sampling from heavy-tailed distributions using discretized Itô diffusions.
problem Sampling from heavy-tailed distributions with finite variance.
method Mean-square analysis of discretized Itô diffusions with weighted Poincaré inequalities.
result Explicit iteration complexity for obtaining samples close to target distributions in Wasserstein-2 metric.
Develops a method for non-equilibrium importance sampling to estimate expectations and constants.
problem Estimating expectations and normalization constants for complex high-dimensional distributions.
method Generates samples from a base distribution, transports them using a velocity field, and averages along flowlines.
result The method can achieve zero-variance estimation and significantly reduces variance compared to vanilla estimators.
Flow AIS Bootstrap improves flow training by generating samples in hard-to-reach regions.
problem Training flows with high variance and mode-seeking behavior.
method Augment flows with AIS and minimize α-divergence with α=2. result FAB learns Boltzmann distribution of alanine dipeptide without MD samples.
Learning shrinks hard tail, improving inference performance.
problem Improving inference performance in neural networks.
method Latent Instance Difficulty (LID) model analyzing fine-tuning of neural networks.
result Training-dependent inference scaling, with βexteff growing with sample size before saturating. NP-PROV separates mean and variance spaces to improve function uncertainty.
problem Neural Processes fail on out-of-domain tasks due to shared latent space uncertainty.
method Separates mean and variance into function-value-related and position-related latent spaces.
result NP-PROV achieves state-of-the-art likelihood with bounded variance in drifts.
Study examines pricing of target volatility options in fractional SABR model.
problem Pricing target volatility options in the lognormal fractional SABR model.
method Used Ito's calculus for a theoretical replicating strategy and derived approximations and closed-form expressions.
result Accuracy of approximations for target volatility option pricing in various parameter ranges.
Improves gradient estimation for discrete distributions with variance reduction techniques.
problem Excessive variance in gradient estimation for discrete distributions.
method Stein operators for discrete distributions and control variates.
result Substantially lower variance in gradient estimation.
FPGs use structure to improve policy learning in complex tasks.
problem Policy gradient methods struggle with high-dimensional action spaces and objective multiplicity.
method Factor baseline and action-target influence network to reduce gradient variance.
result FPGs provide a general framework for state-of-the-art algorithms and improve performance.
BBVI converges nearly dimensionally independent for log-concave targets.
problem Efficiently optimizing variational parameters in high-dimensional spaces.
method Proved convergence rate of BBVI with reparametrization gradient for log-concave targets.
result BBVI converges with nearly independent dimension dependence for log-concave targets.
HDT improves MCMC on graphs with history-dependent sampling.
problem Efficient sampling from target distributions on general graphs with low computational overhead.
method History-driven target (HDT) framework that replaces the original target distribution with a history-dependent one.
result Near-zero variance performance and scalability to large graphs with memory-efficient implementation.
Improves inference-time alignment for diffusion models without updating weights.
problem Aligning diffusion models without updating weights for high-reward outputs.
method Trust-Region Iterative Twisted Sequential Monte Carlo (TRI-TSMC) for variance reduction and efficiency.
result Improves primary alignment objectives on text generation tasks.
A new method for time series analysis that highlights important signals.
problem Finding signals that matter most in time series data.
method Contrastive Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (CMSA) using a background dataset.
result CMSA identifies signals that are more relevant to the analyst than those with the highest variance.
A new estimator improves off-policy evaluation in RL, outperforming existing methods.
problem Estimating performance of a new policy using historical data from a different policy.
method Doubly-robust estimator based on Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation, with variance reduction techniques.
result Our estimator uniformly outperforms existing methods across various RL environments and levels of model misspecification.
Improved spectral gap for MwG with adaptive RWM proposals.
problem Improving mixing efficiency of MwG for log-concave distributions.
method Using adaptive RWM proposals tuned to match conditional variances of log-concave target distributions.
result Established a spectral gap lower bound of order O(1/κd) for MwG. SRMC framework reduces Monte Carlo variance by history-based sampling in high-dimensional spaces.
problem Efficient sampling in high-dimensional discrete or continuous state spaces.
method Score-Repellent Monte Carlo (SRMC) framework that summarizes history through running average of score evaluations.
result Improves estimator variance and mode coverage with constant memory usage.
Framework for precise recall control in spatial conflation tasks.
problem Precise recall control in large-scale spatial conflation tasks to avoid downstream analytics failures and excessive manual review.
method End-to-end framework using equigrid bounding-box filter, CSR representation, neural ranker, and inverse-variance weighted ensemble of threshold estimators.
result Achieves exact recall with sub-percent variance over tens of millions of geometry pairs, runs on a single TPU v3 core.
The paper tackles mean-variance analysis in Bayesian optimization under uncertainty.
problem Optimizing decisions in uncertain environments considering trade-offs between average and variance of risk.
method Developed bounds for mean and variance risk measures in Gaussian Process models and proposed AL algorithms for multi-task, multi-objective, and constrained optimization scenarios.
result Proposed AL algorithms effectively address the mean-variance trade-off in uncertain optimization scenarios.
BR-SNIS reduces bias in self-normalized IS without increasing variance.
problem Bias in self-normalized IS.
method Iterated sampling-importance resampling (ISIR) to form a bias-reduced estimator.
result Significant reduction in bias without increasing variance.
Method improves volatility targeting for index construction.
problem High turnover, leverage spikes, and sensitivity to estimation error in existing volatility-targeting strategies.
method Proportional-control approach for setting index weights that corrects tracking error through feedback.
result The proportional-control approach achieves the target volatility more effectively than open-loop alternatives.
New shrinkage estimator for GMV portfolio reduces risk in high-dimensional asset settings.
problem Estimating the global minimum variance portfolio in high-dimensional settings with limited data.
method Dynamic shrinkage of the GMV portfolio using previous data as a target.
result The new estimator outperforms traditional methods in high-dimensional asset settings.