A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New CGMD model predicts non-equilibrium processes better than existing methods.
Alternative finance models from physics for non-equilibrium systems.
A new method relaxes molecules without needing non-equilibrium data.
Neural network models colloidal particle dynamics in non-equilibrium systems.
The paper provides a geometric framework for understanding non-equilibrium thermodynamics.
Mathematical model predicts international trade and global economy dynamics.
Investigates spontaneous symmetry breaking in non-equilibrium systems.
Framework preserves emergent physics in non-equilibrium systems from particle trajectories.
A new method uses deep learning to predict rare events in complex systems.
Paper connects RL and non-equilibrium statistical mechanics for entropy-regularized RL.
We analyze the statistics of daily price change of stock market in the framework of a statistical physics model for the collective fluctuation of stock portfolio. In this model the time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins, and the Hamiltonian of the system is expressed by spin-spin…
In this paper I give a brief introduction to a family of simple but non-trivial models designed to increase our understanding of collective processes in markets, the so-called Minority Games, and their non-equilibrium statistical mathematical analysis. Since the most commonly studied members of this family define disor…
Investigates fluid flow perturbations using geometric theory.
New method reconstructs non-equilibrium stochastic systems from data.
Develops a method for non-equilibrium importance sampling to estimate expectations and constants.
The origin of the long-range memory in the non-equilibrium systems is still an open problem as the phenomenon can be reproduced using models based on Markov processes. In these cases a notion of spurious memory is introduced. A good example of Markov processes with spurious memory is stochastic process driven by a non-…
This paper tackles traffic volume estimation challenges with a deep learning method.
Researchers use Gaussian processes to approximate Lagrange multipliers for Maximum-Entropy distributions.
We develop a formalism to study linearized perturbations around the equilibria of a pure exchange economy. With the use of mean field theory techniques, we derive equations for the flow of products in an economy driven by heterogeneous preferences and probabilistic interaction between agents. We are able to show that i…
Rate GENERIC extends thermodynamics principles to non-equilibrium systems.
Thermodynamic integration (TI) for computing marginal likelihoods is based on an inverse annealing path from the prior to the posterior distribution. In many cases, the resulting estimator suffers from high variability, which particularly stems from the prior regime. When comparing complex models with differences in a …
During the last two years, Europe has been facing a debt crisis, and Greece has been at its center. In response to the crisis, drastic actions have been taken, including the halving of Greek debt. Policy makers acted because interest rates for sovereign debt increased dramatically. High interest rates imply that defaul…
Geometric approach to quantum thermodynamics models state spaces and processes.
We seek to infer the parameters of an ergodic Markov process from samples taken independently from the steady state. Our focus is on non-equilibrium processes, where the steady state is not described by the Boltzmann measure, but is generally unknown and hard to compute, which prevents the application of established eq…
An interacting Black-Scholes model for option pricing, where the usual constant interest rate r is replaced by a stochastic time dependent rate r(t) of the form r(t)=r+f(t) dW/dt, accounting for market imperfections and prices non-alignment, was developed in [1]. The white noise amplitude f(t), called arbitrage bubble,…
In this work a relation between a measure of short-term arbitrage in the market and the excess growth of portfolios as a notion of long-term arbitrage is established. The former originates from "Geometric Arbitrage Theory" and the latter from "Stochastic Portfolio Theory". Both aim to describe non-equilibrium effects i…
Employing data on the assessed value of land in 1983 -- 2005 Japan, we investigate the dynamical behavior in the high scale region of non-equilibrium systems. From the detailed quasi-balance and Gibrat's law, we derive a relation between the change of Pareto index and a symmetry in the detailed quasi-balance. The relat…
New method samples from multi-modal distributions on Riemannian manifolds without training.
We briefly review data analysis of the Island order book, part of NASDAQ, which suggests a framework to which all limit order markets should comply. Using a simple exclusion particle model, we argue that short-time price over-diffusion in limit order markets is due to the non-equilibrium of order placement, cancellatio…
NEO combines orbits to sample and estimate complex distributions.
Improved sampling for gauge theory with SNFs.
Non-equilibrium phenomena occur not only in physical world, but also in finance. In this work, stochastic relaxational dynamics (together with path integrals) is applied to option pricing theory. A recently proposed model (by Ilinski et al.) considers fluctuations around this equilibrium state by introducing a relaxati…
This paper outlines a critical gap in the assessment methodology used to estimate the macroeconomic costs and benefits of climate policy. It shows that the vast majority of models used for assessing climate policy use assumptions about the financial system that sit at odds with the observed reality. In particular, the …
In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behav…
New model explains market dynamics with phase transitions and non-linear interactions.
We investigate the dynamical behavior in the large scale region of non-equilibrium systems, by employing data on the assessed value of land in 1983 -- 2006 Japan. In the system we find the detailed quasi-balance, which has the symmetry: x_1 -> a {x_2}^θ (x_1 and x_2 are two successive land prices). By using the detaile…
An important result from psycholinguistics (Griffiths & Kalish, 2005) states that no language can be learned iteratively by rational agents in a self-sustaining manner. We show how to modify the learning process slightly in order to achieve self-sustainability. Our work is in two parts. First, we characterize iterated …
Tractable model explains market dynamics using Langevin and SUSY QM.
We propose a novel method to directly learn a stochastic transition operator whose repeated application provides generated samples. Traditional undirected graphical models approach this problem indirectly by learning a Markov chain model whose stationary distribution obeys detailed balance with respect to a parameteriz…
We fill a void in merging empirical and phenomenological characterisation of the dynamical phase transitions in complex systems by identifying three of them on real-life financial markets. We extract and interpret the empirical, numerical, and semi-analytical evidences for the existence of these phase transitions, by c…
We consider a simple stochastic model of a urban rental housing market, in which the interaction of tenants and landlords induces rent fluctuations. We simulate the model numerically and measure the equilibrium rent distribution, which is found to be close to a lognormal law. We also study the influence of the density …
Stochastic normalizing flows improve lattice field theory simulations.
PA reinterpreted as SB problem, unifying thermodynamics and optimal transport.
We investigated the critical dynamics on the daily Taiwan stock exchange index (TSE) from 1971 to 2005, and the 5-min intraday data from 1996 to 2005. A global persistence exponent was defined for non-equilibrium critical phenomena \cite{Janssen,Majumdar}, and describing dynamic behavior in an economic index \c…
FEAT estimates free energy using adaptive transports.
We extend our studies of a quantum field model defined on a lattice having the dilation group as a local gauge symmetry. The model is relevant in the cross-disciplinary area of econophysics. A corresponding proposal by Ilinski aimed at gauge modeling in non-equilibrium pricing is realized as a numerical simulation of t…
The purpose of this work is to explore the role that random arbitrage opportunities play in pricing financial derivatives. We use a non-equilibrium model to set up a stochastic portfolio, and for the random arbitrage return, we choose a stationary ergodic random process rapidly varying in time. We exploit the fact that…
Superstatistics is a widely employed tool of non-equilibrium statistical physics which plays an important role in analysis of hierarchical complex dynamical systems. Yet, its "canonical" formulation in terms of a single nuisance parameter is often too restrictive when applied to complex empirical data. Here we show tha…