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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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12233546 · May 202619922001200920172026
48 results for stress episodes

Study on systemic risk in European insurance sector, showing insurer connections during stress.

problem Understanding systemic risk connectedness in European insurance sector.
method Common connectedness framework applied to returns, volatility, value-at-risk, and expected shortfall.
result Insurers are a significant component of systemic risk connectedness, especially during stress episodes.

Study adapts OHLC volatility estimators for monitoring market stress in diverse settings.

problem Limited use of range-based volatility estimators in local commodity markets.
method Adapted OHLC volatility estimators to monitor market distress across various contexts.
result OHLC-based volatility indicators detect market disruptions missed by standard momentum indicators.

This paper uses a mean-field game to model stablecoin market dynamics and recovery.

problem Understanding who restores the peg during de-pegging events of stablecoins.
method Dynamic, agent-based mean-field game framework for fiat-collateralized stablecoins.
result The equilibrium formulation endogenously maps market frictions into a price path and order flows, allowing for stress testing and attribution of peg-reverting pressure.

AXI assesses bank funding costs transparently, improving loan pricing and reducing financial risk.

problem Lack of credit-sensitive funding benchmarks after LIBOR transition.
method AXI aggregates unsecured funding transactions across maturities, producing a daily credit spread.
result AXI correlates with financial conditions and market stress, reducing funding risk and offering spread discounts.

The paper investigates non-linear and heavy-tailed predictability in transition-energy financial markets.

problem Incomplete representation of dependence structure in Gaussian-linear forecasting frameworks.
method Develops a hybrid forecasting framework combining Student-t Vector Autoregressions with nonlinear recurrent residual learning architectures.
result The proposed framework consistently improves predictive accuracy relative to conventional models, especially during macro-financial stress.

Method generates plausible financial stress scenarios using large deviations.

problem Misleading risk management by overlooking or overemphasizing implausible scenarios.
method Exploits large-deviations principle to concentrate risk factors near most likely stress configurations.
result Can generate informative stress scenarios even with limited historical data.

This paper examines cryptocurrency integration with traditional markets, showing how network structure and turbulence influence cross-asset spillovers.

problem Understanding how cryptocurrencies integrate with traditional financial markets and the impact of market stress on cross-asset spillovers.
method Combining rolling correlation networks, community structure, market-specific and system-wide Turbulence Indices, and VAR-based connectedness analysis.
result Cross-asset integration is episodic, with network structure and turbulence playing a role in transmission during stress periods.

Model predicts wound and episode-level readmission risk and time to re-admit.

problem Identify patients at high risk of re-admission to prevent wound recurrences and reduce healthcare costs.
method Data-driven analysis of wound care and episode-level patient data.
result Model achieves high recall and precision for predicting re-admission risk and time.

Algorithm tackles constrained reinforcement learning with concave-convex and knapsack constraints.

problem Constrained episodic reinforcement learning with concave rewards and convex constraints.
method Modular analysis with strong theoretical guarantees for concave-convex and knapsack settings.
result Significantly outperforms existing approaches in constrained episodic environments.

Develops a method for reverse stress testing in multivariate scenarios.

problem Reconstructing a multivariate stress scenario from a single exogenous shock.
method Maximizing conditional density under three distributional assumptions.
result Simulated scenarios are economically coherent and reproduce risk-reward asymmetry.

We consider online learning in episodic loop-free Markov decision processes (MDPs), where the loss function can change arbitrarily between episodes, and the transition function is not known to the learner. We show O~(LXAT)\tilde{O}(L|X|\sqrt{|A|T}) regret bound, where TT is the number of episodes, XX is the state space, $A…

2019-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

A hybrid model combines diffusion and neural operator methods for stress prediction in hyperelastic materials.

problem Challenges in predicting stress fields in hyperelastic materials with complex microstructures.
method A hybrid surrogate framework combining a conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (cDDPM) and a modified DeepONet.
result The hybrid model consistently outperforms traditional methods by one to two orders of magnitude.

The paper analyzes Nordic stock markets' correlation structures and regime shifts.

problem Understanding and exploiting regime shifts in Nordic stock markets.
method Examined two decades of daily data for OMXS30, OMXC20, and OMXH25 universes; proposed an adaptive portfolio allocation framework.
result Documented pronounced regime dependence in rolling correlation matrices; proposed an adaptive portfolio allocation framework.

The study identifies and analyzes different market regimes in equity markets using advanced signal processing techniques.

problem Understanding and quantifying the dynamics of different market regimes in equity markets.
method Data-driven Hilbert--Huang Transform for regime identification, Holo--Hilbert Spectral Analysis for profiling, and Variable-Length Markov Chains for return dynamics modeling.
result Developed markets normalize more effectively as stress subsides, while developing markets retain residual tail dependence and downside persistence.

Develops a method for stress testing correlations of financial portfolios.

problem Stress testing correlations in financial asset portfolios.
method Parametric representation of correlations, Bayesian variable selection, joint distribution of stress scenarios.
result Inference of worst-case correlation scenarios using stress tests.

Credit risk stress tests can misrepresent default probabilities due to inconsistent parameterization.

problem Misleading default probability projections in credit risk stress tests.
method Analysis of credit risk stress testing models and their parameterization.
result Current portfolios tend to align with through-the-cycle portfolios, leading to spurious default rate projections.

Machine learning improves financial stress testing in Indian markets.

problem Conventional stress testing limitations in Indian financial markets.
method Dimensionality reduction, latent factor modeling, Variational Autoencoders, Monte Carlo simulation.
result Improved flexibility, robustness, and realism in financial stress testing.

Paper proposes MAST to identify stress conditions in forecasting models.

problem Improving reliability and transparency of univariate forecasting models under stress.
method Meta-learning and data augmentation approach to predict stress conditions.
result MAST identifies conditions leading to large errors in forecasting models.

Many interesting real world domains involve reinforcement learning (RL) in partially observable environments. Efficient learning in such domains is important, but existing sample complexity bounds for partially observable RL are at least exponential in the episode length. We give, to our knowledge, the first partially …

2016-05-25abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper defines p-biharmonic submanifolds and stress tensors in space forms.

problem Characterizing p-biharmonic submanifolds in space forms.
method Provided necessary and sufficient conditions for p-biharmonic submanifolds and properties of stress p-bienergy tensors.
result New properties of stress p-bienergy tensors for p-biharmonic submanifolds.

Using Hilbert's criterion, we consider the stress-energy tensor associated to the bienergy functional. We show that it derives from a variational problem on metrics and exhibit the peculiarity of dimension four. First, we use this tensor to construct new examples of biharmonic maps, then classify maps with vanishing or…

2006-02-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Algorithm improves online learning in adversarial bandits.

problem Online learning in adversarial multi-armed bandits with non-uniform best arm distribution.
method Online-within-online setup, inner and outer learners, leveraging non-uniform empirical distribution of best arms.
result Improves regret bounds for non-uniform best arm distributions.

Reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have made huge progress in recent years by leveraging the power of deep neural networks (DNN). Despite the success, deep RL algorithms are known to be sample inefficient, often requiring many rounds of interaction with the environments to obtain satisfactory performance. Recently,…

2018-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.

problem Assessing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Computes multivariate conditional probability distributions for elliptical distributions, focusing on Student-t and Normal models.
result Proposes measures of stress impact and systemic risk.

Research shows ESG signals lower exposure to market fragility during stress periods.

problem Market fragility often occurs together, and ESG is associated with reduced exposure.
method Monthly data on S&P 500 constituents from 2014 to 2025, analyzing downside returns, volatility, illiquidity, and cofragility states.
result A one-standard-deviation increase in ESG lowers the probability of severe cofragility by 0.92 percentage points during stress periods.

We introduce a new class of reinforcement learning methods referred to as {\em episodic multi-armed bandits} (eMAB). In eMAB the learner proceeds in {\em episodes}, each composed of several {\em steps}, in which it chooses an action and observes a feedback signal. Moreover, in each step, it can take a special action, c…

2015-08-04abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops a robust hedging valuation adjustment measure for dynamic hedging under liquidity-demand stress.

problem Dynamic hedging under liquidity-demand stress
method Define robust HVA as the worst-case expected loss over a relative-entropy neighborhood of the loss distribution generated by simulated rebalancing and maturity-unwind trades.
result Distinguishes fixed-radius convention from fixed benchmark-stress convention and shows wider no-trade bands lower rebalancing costs but raise hedge-error risk.

With the growing popularity of wearable devices, the ability to utilize physiological data collected from these devices to predict the wearer's mental state such as mood and stress suggests great clinical applications, yet such a task is extremely challenging. In this paper, we present a general platform for personaliz…

2019-06-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Neural networks predict flow and elastic stresses in viscoelastic turbulence.

problem Predicting flow and elastic stresses in viscoelastic turbulent flows using limited experimental data.
method Convolutional neural networks trained on wall-normal velocity and pressure data.
result Neural networks accurately predict flow and elastic stresses, especially during low-drag events.

Paper develops a robust HVA measure for dynamic hedging under liquidity stress.

problem Valuation of dynamic hedging under liquidity stress.
method Defines robust HVA as worst-case expected loss over a relative-entropy neighborhood of loss distributions for no-trade bands.
result Wider no-trade bands lower rebalancing costs but increase hedge-error risk.