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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,932 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for simple baselines

Dark Experience improves continual learning with a simple, strong baseline.

problem General Continual Learning in scenarios where tasks are not sequential and offline training is not possible.
method Mixing rehearsal with knowledge distillation and regularization.
result Dark Experience outperforms consolidated approaches and leverages limited resources.

Bayesian Scattering offers a simple baseline for image data uncertainty.

problem Lack of interpretable, mathematically grounded uncertainty quantification methods for image data.
method Coupling wavelet scattering transform with a simple probabilistic head.
result Bayesian Scattering provides sensible uncertainty estimates under distribution shifts.

Investigates Q value evolution in Stable Baselines for DQL in simple vs complex environments.

problem DQL in Stable Baselines struggles with simple non-game environments.
method Comparison of TrafficLight and FrozenLake environments; Q value decomposition analysis.
result Q values meander far from optimal in complex relationships between states.

Simple tabular event prediction model outperforms existing methods.

problem Predicting events from tabular data with historic events.
method Standard autoregressive LLM-style transformers with elementary positional embeddings and causal language modeling.
result Simple model outperforms existing approaches across various datasets and use-cases.

The study introduces backward baselines to distinguish past prediction from future prediction in machine learning models.

problem Differentiating between past and future prediction in machine learning models.
method Theoretical, empirical, and normative arguments support a family of simple and efficient statistical tests called backward baselines.
result The study provides a meaningful backward baseline for auditing black-box prediction systems.

An important problem in sequential decision-making under uncertainty is to use limited data to compute a safe policy, i.e., a policy that is guaranteed to perform at least as well as a given baseline strategy. In this paper, we develop and analyze a new model-based approach to compute a safe policy when we have access …

2016-07-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Graph classification models are sensitive to initialisation and structure, but simple models perform well.

problem Graph classification models' performance is sensitive to initialisation and structure.
method Examined recent graph coarsening architectures and their performance sensitivity.
result Simple models like MLP, single-layer GCN, and fixed-weight GCN achieve competitive performance.

Policy gradient methods are a widely used class of model-free reinforcement learning algorithms where a state-dependent baseline is used to reduce gradient estimator variance. Several recent papers extend the baseline to depend on both the state and action and suggest that this significantly reduces variance and improv…

2018-02-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Study identifies and analyzes spurious correlations in data-driven models.

problem Spurious correlations in data-driven models are unreliable and hard to detect.
method Collect and analyze synthetic datasets generated from causal graphs to investigate spurious correlations.
result Patterns connecting spurious correlation hypotheses and model design choices were observed.

Simple model outperforms neural networks on language understanding tasks.

problem Neural networks struggle with creating novel expressions from familiar ones.
method Attention-inspired modification of a baseline model, focusing on sequential thinking and acting.
result Simple model achieves good performance on gSCAN tasks, validating the benchmark.

Paper identifies problematic baselines in Shapley value explanations and proposes a reweighting mechanism.

problem Identifying and addressing the suboptimality of baselines in Shapley value feature importance analysis.
method Analyzed suboptimality of baselines, identified problematic baseline, generalized uninformativeness, and designed a reweighting mechanism.
result Proposed uncertainty-based reweighting mechanism effectively accelerates computation and improves explanation quality.

Word embeddings have been shown to be useful across state-of-the-art systems in many natural language processing tasks, ranging from question answering systems to dependency parsing. (Herbelot and Vecchi, 2015) explored word embeddings and their utility for modeling language semantics. In particular, they presented an …

2016-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

Proposes baselines for joint NAS and HPO optimization.

problem Joint optimization of neural architecture and hyperparameters for multiple objectives.
method Extends existing methods to jointly optimize with multiple objectives.
result Serves as simple baselines for future multi-objective joint NAS + HPO research.

Paper establishes baselines for offline RL from visual observations.

problem Challenges in offline reinforcement learning from visual observations with continuous action spaces.
method Simple baselines and benchmarking tasks for offline RL from visual observations.
result Simple modifications to existing online RL algorithms outperform existing offline RL methods.

Graph classification has recently received a lot of attention from various fields of machine learning e.g. kernel methods, sequential modeling or graph embedding. All these approaches offer promising results with different respective strengths and weaknesses. However, most of them rely on complex mathematics and requir…

2018-10-22abs ↗pdf ↗

In this paper, we explore ordinal classification (in the context of deep neural networks) through a simple modification of the squared error loss which not only allows it to not only be sensitive to class ordering, but also allows the possibility of having a discrete probability distribution over the classes. Our formu…

2016-12-02abs ↗pdf ↗

Models predict patients at risk of uncontrolled hypertension.

problem Identifying patients at risk of uncontrolled hypertension.
method Developed machine learning models (logistic regression and recurrent neural networks) using EHR data.
result Best model achieved AUROC of 0.719, outperforming baseline.

A simple baseline outperforms deep learning methods in transportation forecasting.

problem The importance of stationarity and recurrent patterns in transportation data.
method A naive baseline based on average weekly patterns and linear regression.
result The baseline method achieves comparable or better results than state-of-the-art deep learning approaches.

This paper shows that a simple baseline based on a Bag-of-Words (BoW) representation learns surprisingly good knowledge graph embeddings. By casting knowledge base completion and question answering as supervised classification problems, we observe that modeling co-occurences of entities and relations leads to state-of-…

2017-10-30abs ↗pdf ↗

Simple Deep LDA models achieve accuracy competitive with softmax baselines.

problem Training Deep LDA models by maximum likelihood estimation leads to overlapping or collapsed class clusters.
method Proposed a constrained Deep LDA formulation with geometric constraints to fix class means and covariance.
result MLE becomes stable under geometric constraints, yielding well-separated class clusters.

Simple Euclidean models outperform hyperbolic graph learning models.

problem The effectiveness of hyperbolic graph learning models is questioned.
method Careful analysis of hyperbolic graph representation learning, identifying and addressing issues with baselines, modeling assumptions, and metric usage.
result Simple Euclidean models often outperform hyperbolic graph learning models, even on hyperbolic datasets.

Sales data in a commodity market (supermarket sales to consumers) has been analysed by studying the fluctuation spectrum and noise correlations. Three related products (ketchup, mayonnaise and curry sauce) have been analysed. Most noise in sales is caused by promotions, but here we focus on the fluctuations in baseline…

2004-12-07abs ↗pdf ↗

A simple method flags images as out-of-distribution based on their distance to nearest neighbors.

problem Detecting images not aligned with a trained model's in-distribution data.
method Flag images as OOD if their average distance to K nearest neighbors is large in the classifier's representation space.
result Simple methods can outperform more complex ones when considering learned representations.

A new Bayesian model improves forecasting for intermittent demand.

problem Sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence in intermittent demand forecasting.
method Hierarchical Bayesian TSB model with partial pooling and calibrated probabilistic configuration.
result TSB-HB achieves the lowest RMSE and RMSSE on the UCI Online Retail dataset.

Simple policy search outperforms advanced learnable test-time augmentation techniques.

problem Improving predictive performance through test-time data augmentation.
method Greedy policy search (GPS) for learning test-time augmentation policies.
result Augmentation policies learned with GPS achieve superior predictive performance and robustness.

New learned optimizers outperform baselines by incorporating known and novel mechanisms.

problem Understanding how learned optimizers outperform traditional ones.
method Careful analysis and visualization of learned optimizers trained on various tasks.
result Learned optimizers incorporate known techniques like momentum and gradient clipping, as well as new forms of learning rate adaptation.

New algorithm trains neural nets on simple skills to learn complex tasks faster.

problem Learning complex tasks through simple imitation.
method Train neural networks on simple, easy-to-learn skills to accelerate learning of complex, hard-to-learn tasks.
result Consistently outperforms state-of-the-art baseline in training speed and performance.

A simple baseline for extreme multi-label classification using random projections.

problem Automatically annotating data points with relevant labels from a large label vocabulary.
method On-the-fly global embedding using random projections, with an ensemble of learners.
result Competitive accuracy compared to existing methods, with significant speed-up and model-size reduction.

FrequentNet uses frequency domain basis vectors for image classification, making models more interpretable and efficient.

problem Image classification models are often complex and hard to interpret.
method FrequentNet selects filter vectors from frequency domain basis vectors instead of training them with back propagation.
result The method improves interpretability and efficiency of image classification models.

Bitcoin price prediction models fail to outperform a simple 'today's price' baseline, especially at longer horizons.

problem Lack of robust models that consistently outperform a naive price predictor at various horizons.
method Surveyed peer-reviewed papers, categorized by evaluation methodology, contrasted with social media discourse, and proposed methodological standards.
result No peer-reviewed study has shown robust superiority over the naive baseline across multiple market regimes at short-to-medium horizons.