Simple neural net outperforms complex uncertainty methods.
problem Reliable uncertainty estimation from deterministic models.
method A simple baseline using a single softmax neural net with residual connections and spectral normalization.
result Simple neural net outperforms DUQ and SNGP on uncertainty prediction.
A new model improves uncertainty estimation in deep learning.
problem Deep Kernel Learning (DKL) produces unreliable uncertainty estimates.
method Proposed a bi-Lipschitz constraint to preserve distances in feature space.
result DUE model outperforms previous DKL and other methods in uncertainty quality.
Single deep model detects out-of-distribution data with single forward pass.
problem Detecting out-of-distribution data points in neural networks.
method Deterministic uncertainty quantification (DUQ) using gradient penalty for reliable detection.
result Single model outperforms or matches ensemble methods in out-of-distribution detection.
Exact guidance for discrete data improves posterior sampling efficiency.
problem Inefficient guidance for discrete data in posterior sampling.
method Derive exact transition rate for desired distribution given learned discrete flow matching model.
result Significantly improved efficiency with single forward pass per sampling step.
We present a deep-learning network that detects multiple small objects (hundreds to thousands) in a scene while simultaneously estimating their x,y pixel locations together with a characteristic feature-set (for instance, target orientation and color). All estimations are performed in a single, forward pass which makes…
Bayesian neural network models improve uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate regression models with heteroscedastic noise.
method Proposes Bayesian Last Layer neural network models and EM algorithms for parameter learning.
result Capable of disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
FoundCause: Causal Discovery with Latent Confounders from Observational Data
problem Causal discovery from observational data
method FoundCause, an amortized causal discovery model trained on synthetic data
result FoundCause outperforms classical and amortized methods on real-world datasets
FastSHAP speeds up Shapley value estimation for black-box models.
problem Efficiently calculating Shapley values for complex models.
method Uses a learned explainer model in a single forward pass.
result Generates high-quality explanations with significant speedup.
Generative Adapter adapts LMs with a single forward pass, reducing inference overhead.
problem Efficient adaptation of large language models for new contexts.
method Generative Adapter directly maps new contexts to low-rank LM adapters via self-supervised learning.
result Significant reduction in inference overhead with no need for fine-tuning.
SymNet uses neural models to solve RMDPs efficiently.
problem Limited effectiveness of generalized policies in RMDPs.
method SymNet trains shared parameters for an RDDL domain, converts instances to graphs, uses relational neural models for node embeddings, and scores actions based on embeddings.
result SymNet policies outperform random and state-of-the-art deep reactive policies on nine RDDL domains.
In this work we develop a fast saliency detection method that can be applied to any differentiable image classifier. We train a masking model to manipulate the scores of the classifier by masking salient parts of the input image. Our model generalises well to unseen images and requires a single forward pass to perform …
Recently, there has been great interest in the field of audio style transfer, where a stylized audio is generated by imposing the style of a reference audio on the content of a target audio. We improve on the current approaches which use neural networks to extract the content and the style of the audio signal and propo…
Single-pass method estimates neural network uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty estimation in deep learning requires multiple passes.
method Probabilistic reasoning over neural network depths.
result Single forward pass for uncertainty estimation.
BLISS detects and separates astronomical sources quickly and accurately.
problem Detecting and separating overlapping astronomical sources in large images.
method Bayesian Light Source Separator (BLISS) using deep generative models and variational inference.
result BLISS can process megapixel images in seconds and produce highly accurate catalogs.
We show that the output of a (residual) convolutional neural network (CNN) with an appropriate prior over the weights and biases is a Gaussian process (GP) in the limit of infinitely many convolutional filters, extending similar results for dense networks. For a CNN, the equivalent kernel can be computed exactly and, u…
One-shot neural architecture search limits depth search space and prunes networks for better performance and uncertainty.
problem Finding optimal depth in residual networks for efficient training and inference.
method Formulated a variational objective to approximate the depth distribution and pruned networks based on this distribution.
result Pruned networks achieve competitive accuracy with unpruned networks and better uncertainty calibration.
Generative models explain machine learning predictions with counterfactual instances.
problem Generating human-interpretable insights into machine learning model predictions.
method Sparse counterfactual explanations using conditional generative models.
result Single forward pass generates batches of counterfactual instances.
Geometric AD framework simplifies derivative computation in JAX.
problem Efficient and accurate automatic differentiation.
method Jet functors and Weil algebras for geometric analysis.
result Unified view of derivative propagation with algebraic exactness.
Graph-EFM models weather uncertainty with graph-based ensembles.
problem Accurately capturing forecast uncertainty in chaotic weather.
method Flexible latent-variable formulation with hierarchical graph construction.
result Graph-EFM ensembles achieve equivalent or lower errors than deterministic models.
Generative model prices basket options efficiently.
problem Real-time pricing of basket options with varying market inputs.
method Truncated path signatures and Mixture Density Networks (MDN) for learning the terminal density.
result The model produces small pricing errors and matches Monte Carlo simulations closely.
Layer-wise networks have a closed-form solution and a stopping criterion.
problem Training networks one layer at a time without backpropagation.
method Proved the Kernel Mean Embedding as the closed-form solution and developed a stopping criterion.
result Layer-wise networks converge to a highly desirable kernel for classification.
Layer-wise networks have a closed-form solution and a stopping criterion.
problem Training networks one layer at a time without backpropagation.
method Proved the closed-form solution using the kernel Mean Embedding and Neural Indicator Kernel.
result Layer-wise networks have a closed-form solution and a stopping criterion.
BatchGFN uses generative flow networks for efficient batch active learning.
problem Efficiently selecting informative batches for active learning.
method Generative flow networks to sample batches proportional to a batch reward.
result Constructs highly informative batches with a single forward pass per point.
Discrete Flow Maps bypass sequential prediction limits for parallel text generation.
problem Sequential autoregressive prediction limits large language model speed.
method Flow Maps compress generative trajectories into single-step mappings.
result Discrete Flow Maps surpass previous state-of-the-art results in discrete flow modeling.
This paper introduces a new framework for data efficient and versatile learning. Specifically: 1) We develop ML-PIP, a general framework for Meta-Learning approximate Probabilistic Inference for Prediction. ML-PIP extends existing probabilistic interpretations of meta-learning to cover a broad class of methods. 2) We i…
New method for uncertainty analysis in TabPFN, a state-of-the-art tabular transformer.
problem No method for uncertainty decomposition in TabPFN.
method Casted as a Bayesian predictive inference problem, derived variance estimators using predictive CLT.
result Fast to compute credible bands that target epistemic uncertainty and achieve near-nominal frequentist coverage.
InfoAtlas speeds up MI estimation for real-time data analysis.
problem Efficiently measuring statistical dependency between high-dimensional datasets.
method Directly infers mutual information in a single forward pass using a pretrained model.
result Matches state-of-the-art accuracy with 100x speedup.
Density-Regression improves deep uncertainty estimation with faster inference.
problem Efficient uncertainty estimation under distribution shifts with modern deep models.
method Leverages density function for fast inference and distance-aware feature space.
result Density-Regression achieves competitive uncertainty estimation performance.
Instantly interprets black-box models using additive models.
problem Efficiency and representation power of SHAP explanations.
method Variational perspective linking GAM models and SHAP explanations; InstaSHAP method.
result Automatic computation of Shapley values in a single forward pass.
Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
problem Intractable nonparametric estimation and posterior inference of latent stochastic intensity in Cox processes.
method Variational framework using neural SDEs, with theoretical guarantee of ELBO maximization coinciding with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Accurate recovery of latent intensity dynamics and posterior paths with significant speedup.
GAMformer bridges tabular models and interpretability, offering a single-pass approach.
problem Lack of interpretability in tabular foundation models like TabPFN.
method In-context learning for GAM shape functions, training on synthetic data.
result GAMformer performs comparably to other leading GAMs across various classification benchmarks.
Proposes integrating global and local entropy for more reliable LLMs.
problem Uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) leads to unreliable predictions.
method Measures global uncertainty from hidden-state matrices and local uncertainty from tokens, combining them via a multiplicative gate.
result Global-Local Uncertainty (GLU) outperforms unsupervised baselines across multiple models and benchmarks.
DAB enriches deep networks with uncertainty estimates using a codebook of training inputs.
problem Lack of uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
method Distance Aware Bottleneck (DAB) method that learns a codebook of training inputs.
result DAB achieves better OOD detection and misclassification prediction than prior methods.
Proposes a deep model for Bayesian quantile regression without Gaussian assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification from single forward-pass models is computationally expensive and restrictive.
method Deep evidential learning for Bayesian quantile regression.
result Achieves calibrated uncertainties on non-Gaussian distributions.
DAD learns to design experiments quickly, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Real-time decision-making in sequential Bayesian experimental design.
method Amortized design network trained with contrastive information bounds.
result DAD outperforms alternative strategies on various problems.
FP uses random projections to train networks without feedback, achieving comparable performance to backpropagation.
problem Training neural networks without feedback from downstream layers.
method Forward Projection (FP) method that uses randomised nonlinear projections and closed-form regression.
result FP achieves comparable generalisation to backpropagation methods with a single forward pass, offering significant speedup.
This work introduces a method for visualizing high-dimensional posteriors using hierarchical tree-valued predictions.
problem Visualizing high-dimensional posterior distributions for complex problems like image restoration.
method A neural network predicts a tree-valued hierarchical summarization of the posterior distribution in a single forward pass.
result The method efficiently summarizes and visualizes posteriors, achieving comparable results to hierarchical clustering but at a much faster speed.
SurvivalPFN simplifies survival analysis through amortized Bayesian inference.
problem Selecting appropriate survival analysis methods requires expertise and can be time-consuming.
method SurvivalPFN uses a prior-data fitted network for in-context Bayesian inference.
result SurvivalPFN achieves strong predictive performance across diverse datasets.
Paper introduces efficient uncertainty estimation in LLMs without multiple forward passes.
problem Accurate uncertainty quantification in LLMs remains challenging.
method Evidential Knowledge Distillation to create compact student models.
result Efficient uncertainty estimation achieved with single forward pass.
CRUMB: Efficient Prior Fitted Network Inference via Distributionally Matched Context Batching
problem Inference of tabular foundation models with large training datasets
method CRUMB (Clustered Retrieval Using Minimised-MMD Batching)
result CRUMB outperforms state-of-the-art context selection strategies on the TabArena benchmark
This study uses ICL to efficiently generate robust confidence intervals for noisy regression tasks.
problem Uncertainty quantification for in-context learning in noisy regression tasks.
method Proposes a method based on conformal prediction to construct prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage.
result Conformal prediction with in-context learning (CP with ICL) achieves robust and scalable uncertainty estimates.
New method reduces diffusion model function evaluations for discrete data.
problem High computational burden in generating samples from masked diffusion models.
method Modified causal attention mask and speculative sampling mechanism for non-factorized predictions.
result Achieved ~2x reduction in required network forward passes.
A deep RL approach generates counterfactual instances efficiently.
problem Efficient generation of counterfactual instances for large datasets and diverse models.
method Deep reinforcement learning to optimize counterfactual instances in a single forward pass.
result Model-agnostic and scalable counterfactual generation.
New method uses neural networks to efficiently approximate Bayesian inference for complex models.
problem Efficiently approximating Bayesian inference for complex models with varying temperatures.
method Fully amortized neural posterior estimator trained on a single forward pass.
result Achieves competitive posterior approximations across various temperatures and benchmarks.
BAM model learns graph structure from data with robustness across linear and non-linear dependencies.
problem Detecting dependencies in datasets for graph structure learning.
method Proposes BAM, a neural network model using structural equation models and Chebyshev polynomials for training, with bilinear attention mechanism.
result Demonstrates robust generalizability and superior performance in graph estimation.
DistPred provides a fast, distribution-free method for regression and forecasting.
problem Deterministic point estimates in regression and prediction tasks.
method Transforming proper scoring rules into a differentiable form and using it as a loss function.
result Achieved state-of-the-art performance and significantly improved computational efficiency.
Deep learning predicts neural network parameters efficiently.
problem Optimizing neural network parameters remains inefficient.
method Used graph neural networks to predict parameters of unseen networks.
result Achieved surprisingly good performance on unseen networks.
Direct neural ratio estimator for likelihood-free inference.
problem Efficient likelihood estimation for complex models.
method Amortized likelihood ratio estimation using neural networks.
result DNRE often outperforms previous ratio estimators.