Study optimal trading times for mean-reverting prices with deadlines.
problem Optimal timing strategies for mean-reverting price processes with deadlines.
method Solve optimal double stopping problems with sequential deadlines using local time-space calculus.
result Derive optimal trading boundaries for long-short, short-long, and chooser strategies.
PAC best arm identification with a deadline, improving efficiency over sequential methods.
problem Identifying an optimal arm under a fixed time constraint.
method Elastic Batch Racing (EBR) algorithm for (ε,δ)-PAC best arm identification under a deadline. result EBR is optimal with respect to two hardness results and outperforms sequential methods.
New framework for fair online allocation in continuous time with deadlines.
problem Fair allocation under deadlines in continuous-time online learning.
method Continuous-time utility maximization, dual ascent optimization for time averages.
result Achieves ildeO(B−1/2) regret bound in the absence of statistical knowledge. Study optimal portfolio for households with two goals: random and fixed deadlines.
problem Optimal portfolio choice for households managing random and fixed deadlines.
method Maximizes weighted sum of probabilities of funding both goals in a Black-Scholes market.
result Non-monotonic value function due to interaction between goals under forced funding.
TIP-Search optimizes market prediction accuracy and timeliness under uncertain load.
problem Real-time market prediction requires accurate predictions before a deadline.
method Filters feasible models, dispatches workers, trades accuracy for deadline risk.
result Optimized pool achieves 0.991 timely accuracy and 0.994 raw accuracy.
Paper evaluates deadline-ILS on insider trading contracts, finding it distinguishes signals from noise.
problem Deadlines in insider trading contracts and information leakage detection.
method Empirical evaluation using FFIC dataset, hazard-rate estimation, cross-market wallet analysis.
result Deadline-ILS distinguishes signal from proxy artefact, with a significant shift in magnitude.
New method controls false discoveries in online testing with deadlines.
problem Controlling false discoveries in online hypothesis testing with decision deadlines.
method Benjamini-Hochberg-type procedure over a moving window of hypotheses with adaptive threshold parameters.
result Controls false discovery rate at every stage and adaptively chosen stopping times.
Study analyzes how timely information affects market efficiency and profit allocation.
problem Effects of differential information and mutual learning on market efficiency and price discovery.
method Interactive market setup with sequential auctions, differential signals, and dynamic programming.
result Evidence supports exploiting new information and market efficiency, with risk-adjusted gains and risk-averse agents.
A new auction model for zero-marginal cost products.
problem Determining fair prices for zero-marginal cost products.
method Continuous bidding with self-organized criticality mechanism.
result Avalanches of sales above a critical price.
Develops a new volatility model for prediction markets.
problem Volatility forecasting in prediction markets differs from standard asset markets.
method Combines Wright-Fisher and Glosten-Milgrom mechanisms to model binary prediction markets.
result Structural model outperforms standard ARCH/GARCH models in volatility forecasting.
Asymmetry PRISM outperforms CPU and GPU solvers for institutional rebalancing.
problem Institutional rebalancing with deadline constraints
method Asymmetry PRISM
result Asymmetry PRISM-CPU is 4.5x to 24.1x faster than the fastest completed reference row in the same lane.
Investor aims to meet financial goals with deadlines and target amounts, considering stock trading costs.
problem Goal-based portfolio selection with fixed transaction costs.
method Stochastic Perron's method to show value function is unique viscosity solution to quasi-variational inequalities. Existence of optimal strategy established.
result Optimal trading strategy differs significantly from frictionless case, revealing complex regions and strategies.
Paper introduces TtT, market-implied transition time, from greenium term structure.
problem Estimating market-implied transition time to a low-carbon economy.
method Develops inference theory for TtT, introduces two stochastic models.
result Combines two-layer analysis for consistent estimation of diffusion parameters.
Develops a new volatility model for prediction markets.
problem Volatility forecasting in prediction markets differs from standard asset markets.
method Combines Wright-Fisher and Glosten-Milgrom mechanisms to model binary prediction markets.
result Structural model outperforms standard ARCH/GARCH models in volatility forecasting.
Optimal purchasing policy for mean-reverting items with a finite deadline.
problem Minimizing cost of purchasing and holding mean-reverting items within a fixed time.
method Proved optimal policy as a time-variant threshold function, constructed with dynamic programming.
result Explicit equations for crossing time probability and overshoot expectation.
Optimizes angular velocity transfers for rigid bodies under deadline constraints.
problem Stochastic guidance of spin states of rigid bodies over a hard deadline.
method Structural analysis of Kantorovich optimal coupling formulation for nonlinear dynamics.
result Derives the ground cost for optimal transport of angular velocity.
New algorithm tackles resource allocation in multi-armed bandits to balance speed and throughput.
problem Balancing speed and throughput in stochastic multi-armed bandits with limited resources.
method Proposes an algorithm that trades off between information accumulation and throughput.
result Upper bounds the time taken to find the best arm with a given target success probability.
Adaptive model scheduling boosts data labeling efficiency.
problem Efficiently labeling diverse data with limited resources.
method Adaptive Model Scheduling framework using deep reinforcement learning and heuristic algorithms.
result 53% reduction in execution time with no loss of labels.
ForesightFlow detects informed trading on prediction markets using an information leakage score.
problem Detecting informed trading on decentralized prediction markets.
method Developed an Information Leakage Score (ILS) framework to quantify the fraction of terminal information move priced in before public news events.
result The score connects label generation to proper-scoring-rule literature and reveals systematic biases in insider trading documentation.
Efficient algorithm approximates discrete random variables with minimal Kolmogorov distance.
problem Estimating the probability of missing deadlines in series-parallel schedules.
method An efficient algorithm that computes a random variable with minimal Kolmogorov distance to a given discrete random variable.
result The algorithm efficiently approximates the probability of missing deadlines with minimal Kolmogorov distance.
New approach to goal-based investing using hedging and reinforcement learning.
problem Maximizing probability of reaching investment goals with varying risk aversion.
method Lower partial moments, quantile hedging, efficient hedging, reinforcement learning.
result Optimal investment policies for goal-based investing are equivalent.
New algorithm solves complex mean-field Schrödinger bridge problem.
problem Designing a controller for diffusion processes with nonlocal interaction.
method Generalized Hopf-Cole transform and Sinkhorn-type algorithm.
result Convergence guarantees for the proposed algorithm under mild assumptions.
A framework for goal-based investing with penalties for fund transfers.
problem Investors' mental accounting and multiple investment goals.
method Continuous-time portfolio selection with mental costs and penalties.
result The value function is the unique solution to a complex system of equations.
This work studies the contraction coefficients of Schrödinger bridge problems in linear systems.
problem Optimally controlling the evolution of a system's state density over time.
method Analyzes and improves the convergence rates of dynamic Schrödinger systems via geometric and control-theoretic interpretations.
result New insights into improving computation of worst-case contraction coefficients by preconditioning.
Develops a model for gambling decisions under time inconsistency.
problem Time inconsistency in gambling decisions due to probability weighting in CPT.
method Formulates the problem as a mathematical program, derives optimal precommitted rule.
result Gambler may enter the casino even with limited play, behavior varies based on gains/losses.
Study shows time matters in automated trading, improving simple strategies over complex ones.
problem Effects of reaction speed and trading urgency on automated trading strategies.
method Simulated financial markets with public limit order book and continuous double auction matching. Examined reaction speed and trading urgency.
result Simple strategies outperform complex ones when considering reaction speed and trading urgency.
This paper proposes a method to select project schedules with the lowest risk.
problem Selecting schedules that meet project deadlines while minimizing risk.
method Integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling to quantify and compare risks.
result Proposes a method to select schedules with the lowest risk.
Deep Q-learning optimizes same-day delivery with vehicles and drones.
problem Optimizing same-day delivery with limited vehicle and drone capacities.
method Deep Q-learning approach to assign packages to vehicles or drones.
result Deep Q-learning policy outperforms benchmark policies and maintains effectiveness with changing fleet sizes.
Majorizing measures control sequential complexities for online learning.
problem Extending classical empirical processes theory to sequential cases.
method Generic chaining, majorizing measures, fractional covering numbers.
result Sharp control of worst-case sequential Rademacher complexity.
Schrödinger bridge solved with Weyl calculus for quadratic state cost.
problem Optimal control policy to steer joint state statistics.
method Weyl calculus in quantum mechanics for reaction-diffusion PDEs.
result Explicit Markov kernel for quadratic state cost found.
Paper studies pseudo-projective tensors on warped products.
problem Characterizing pseudo-projectively flat warped products.
method Analyzes sequential warped products and pseudo-projective tensors.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for pseudo-projectively flat sequential warped products.
We develop a probabilistic framework for sequential random projection.
problem Challenges of sequential decision-making under uncertainty.
method Novel construction of a stopped process and method of mixtures.
result Achieved a non-asymptotic probability bound for random projection.
Novel algorithm reduces delays and communication in decentralized learning.
problem Decentralized learning with straggling nodes and high communication costs.
method QuanTimed-DSGD: deadline-imposed gradient computation and quantized model exchange.
result Converges to global optimal for convex functions, finds first-order stationary points for non-convex.
A heuristic minimizes tardy jobs' total weight on single-machine scheduling.
problem Minimizing tardy jobs' total weight on single-machine scheduling.
method Data-driven heuristic combining machine learning and problem-specific characteristics.
result Significantly outperforms state-of-the-art in optimality gap and adaptability.
In this note, we introduce a new type of warped products called as sequential warped products to cover a wider variety of exact solutions to Einstein's equation. First, we study the geometry of sequential warped products and obtain covariant derivatives, curvature tensor, Ricci curvature and scalar curvature formulas. …
LLMs improve parent-order execution in trading.
problem Improving execution costs in algorithmic trading.
method PACE (Plan-Ahead Controlled Execution) framework.
result LLMs outperform existing methods by 0.65 bps.
Paper proposes AdaBoost-assisted ELM for efficient online sequential classification.
problem Efficient online sequential classification with improved accuracy and stability.
method Utilizes AdaBoost for cost-sensitive learning and forgetting mechanism for stability.
result Achieves 94.41% accuracy on MNIST dataset with reduced standard deviation.
Study finds conditions for certain warped product manifolds to be quasi-Einstein.
problem Conditions for quasi-Einstein sequential warped product manifolds.
method Investigated necessary and sufficient conditions for specific types of manifolds.
result Identified conditions for sequential warped product manifolds to be quasi-Einstein.
A new model for sequential memory using temporal predictive coding.
problem Forming accurate memory of sequential stimuli in the brain.
method Proposes a novel PC-based model called temporal predictive coding (tPC).
result Shows that tPC models can accurately memorize and retrieve sequential inputs.
YC Bench forecasts startup success in Y Combinator batches with a short-term metric.
problem Difficult forecasting of startup success due to sparse meaningful outcomes and slow evaluation cycles.
method Developed a live benchmark using publicly available traction signals and web visibility metrics.
result Revealed 6 out of 11 top performers at YC Demo Day with a simple proxy for prior brand recognition.
This paper reviews methods for interpreting deep learning models with sequential data.
problem Limited interpretability of deep learning models in sequential data domains.
method Reviews and compares techniques for sequential interpretability.
result Current techniques have limitations and future research is needed.
An adversarial detector identifies anomalous sequences in sequential data.
problem Detecting anomalous sequences in one-class settings with limited data.
method Solves a minimax problem to find an optimal detector against the worst-case sequences from a generator, using marked point process model.
result Demonstrated good performance on simulations and real credit card fraud datasets.
We present a novel framework for kernel learning with sequential data of any kind, such as time series, sequences of graphs, or strings. Our approach is based on signature features which can be seen as an ordered variant of sample (cross-)moments; it allows to obtain a "sequentialized" version of any static kernel. The…
Reduces change detection to estimation using confidence sequences.
problem Detecting changes in data streams with minimal delay and false alarms.
method Reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences.
result Change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions and strong guarantees.
A universal framework for constructing confidence sets using sequential likelihood mixing.
problem Constructing reliable confidence sets for realizable likelihood functions.
method Sequential likelihood mixing, integrating Bayesian inference and regret inequalities.
result Establishes fundamental connections and provable coverage guarantees for various inference techniques.
New distributed EnKF method for non-sequential assimilation of large datasets.
problem Computational intensity and order dependencies in traditional EnKF.
method Distributed computing for full model error covariance matrix.
result Non-sequential assimilation outperforms sequential in performance.
Efficiently samples latent functions in complex data models with sequential structure.
problem Inference of latent functions in probabilistic models with complex data likelihoods.
method Extends Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to handle sequential structure, enabling efficient sampling of latent variables and parameters.
result Strong performance in growing-data settings, demonstrating scalability.
New private algorithm for sequential hypothesis testing with privacy and error rate guarantees.
problem Privacy protection in sequential hypothesis testing for sensitive data.
method Renyi differential privacy, Wald's Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT).
result Private algorithm with strong privacy guarantees and theoretical performance analysis.