Paper predicts market implied volatility using alternative data and machine learning.
problem Predicting market implied volatility using alternative data.
method Used Google News statistics and Wikipedia site traffic as alternative data sources, and applied Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, and AdaBoost as machine learning models.
result Movements in market implied volatility can be predicted using machine learning techniques.
Paper introduces TtT, market-implied transition time, from greenium term structure.
problem Estimating market-implied transition time to a low-carbon economy.
method Develops inference theory for TtT, introduces two stochastic models.
result Combines two-layer analysis for consistent estimation of diffusion parameters.
The study proposes a framework to assess sustainability of firms using fund-level classifications and portfolio holdings.
problem To capture market-based sustainability assessments of firms.
method Exploiting fund-level sustainability classifications and granular portfolio holdings to construct Market-Implied Sustainability (MIS) scores.
result MIS scores capture sustainability dimensions different from conventional ESG ratings and improve portfolio performance.
We review and illustrate how the volatility smile translates into a probability distribution, the market-implied probability distribution representing believes priced in. The effects of changes in the smile are examined. Special attention is given to the effects of slope, which might appear at first counter-intuitive. …
Paper addresses xVA models for market-implied skew and smile.
problem Capturing market-implied skew and smile in xVA calculations.
method Developed a state-dependent SDE combining Hull-White models with RAnD technique.
result Demonstrated significant effect of skew and smile on xVA calculations.
Deep learning models price options using volatility surfaces.
problem Pricing exotic options with high accuracy and efficiency.
method Variational autoencoder for volatility surface compression, multilayer perceptron for option pricing.
result Trained model achieves high accuracy across American and Asian options.
Predicts stock market crashes using rational bubble model.
problem Financial market crashes prediction.
method White box model based on rational bubble theory.
result Successfully predicts major crashes in Dow Jones and Bitcoin markets.
Extracting market expectations has always been an important issue when making national policies and investment decisions in financial markets. In option markets, the most popular way has been to extract implied volatilities to assess the future variability of the underlying with the use of the Black and Scholes formula…
This paper studies the application of machine learning in extracting the market implied features from historical risk neutral corporate bond yields. We consider the example of a hypothetical illiquid fixed income market. After choosing a surrogate liquid market, we apply the Denoising Autoencoder algorithm from the fie…
This paper studies an application of machine learning in extracting features from the historical market implied corporate bond yields. We consider an example of a hypothetical illiquid fixed income market. After choosing a surrogate liquid market, we apply the Denoising Autoencoder (DAE) algorithm to learn the features…
Perpetual futures offer leverage without maturity, with prices influenced by funding rates.
problem Understanding and pricing perpetual futures with funding rates.
method Derive no-arbitrage prices and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically analyze deviations and Sharpe ratios of implied arbitrage strategies.
result Implied arbitrage strategies in crypto markets yield high Sharpe ratios, indicating significant pricing inefficiencies.
The ADO-Heston model approximates market implied skew in vanilla options.
problem Reproduce market implied skew in vanilla options using a Markovian approximation.
method Derived characteristic function under risk-neutral and real measures, chose market price of risk, found closed form for log-price CF and implied skew.
result The ADO-Heston model can approximate the vanilla implied skew at small T but not exactly as rough volatility models. The paper validates a centrality measure for financial networks during financial distress.
problem Systemic risk and shock propagation in financial networks.
method Statistical validation method for network centrality measures.
result The proposed centrality measure increases significantly during financial distress.
Improved price bounds for multi-asset derivatives using market option data.
problem Creating robust price bounds for multi-asset derivatives under market-implied dependence.
method Extracting inter-asset dependence information from market option prices and applying modified martingale optimal transport.
result Improved price bounds for multi-asset derivatives, demonstrating relevance and tractability.
We compute the value of a variance swap when the underlying is modeled as a Markov process time changed by a Lévy subordinator. In this framework, the underlying may exhibit jumps with a state-dependent Lévy measure, local stochastic volatility and have a local stochastic default intensity. Moreover, the Lévy subordina…
We propose a new static parameterization of the implied volatility surface which is constructed by using polynomials of sigmoid functions combined with some other terms. This parameterization is flexible enough to fit market implied volatilities which demonstrate smile or skew. An arbitrage-free calibration algorithm i…
A new model uses a Levy-driven process to value credit index swaptions.
problem Valuation of credit index swaptions in financial markets.
method Proposes a Levy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to model risk-free rate and default intensities.
result Derives formulas for characteristic function, moments, and stationary distribution.
We consider the problem of option pricing under stochastic volatility models, focusing on the linear approximation of the two processes known as exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck and Stein-Stein. Indeed, we show they admit the same limit dynamics in the regime of low fluctuations of the volatility process, under which we …
The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be integrated into the theoretical framework of convex monetary measures of risk. In …
Option pricing is the most elemental challenge of mathematical finance. Knowledge of the prices of options at every strike is equivalent to knowing the entire pricing distribution for a security, as derivatives contingent on the security can be replicated using options. The available data may be insufficient to determi…
Sparked by Alòs, León, and Vives (2007); Fukasawa (2011, 2017); Gatheral, Jaisson, and Rosenbaum (2018), so-called rough stochastic volatility models such as the rough Bergomi model by Bayer, Friz, and Gatheral (2016) constitute the latest evolution in option price modeling. Unlike standard bivariate diffusion models s…
Absence-of-Arbitrage (AoA) is the basic assumption underpinning derivatives pricing theory. As part of the OTC derivatives market, the CDS market not only provides a vehicle for participants to hedge and speculate on the default risks of corporate and sovereign entities, it also reveals important market-implied default…
ChatGPT snapshots predict future stock returns.
problem Predicting future stock returns using pre-cutoff text.
method Extracted LLM outlook scores from OpenAI snapshots.
result Outlook scores positively correlate with future stock returns.
Direct neural network calibration outperforms indirect method for rough volatility models.
problem Calibrating volatility models with neural networks.
method Comparison of direct and indirect neural network approaches for volatility model calibration.
result Direct approach outperforms indirect approach for rough volatility models.
Traditional sentiment construction in finance relies heavily on the dictionary-based approach, with a few exceptions using simple machine learning techniques such as Naive Bayes classifier. While the current literature has not yet invoked the rapid advancement in the natural language processing, we construct in this re…
China uses two Renminbi markets to hedge cross-border risks, leading to a price discrepancy.
problem China's two Renminbi markets (onshore and offshore) create a price discrepancy for currency forwards.
method Joint equilibrium model for spot and forward trading with transaction costs and segmented supply.
result The model explains the observed forward price discrepancy in terms of offshore liquidity stress.
Proposes a flexible framework for implied volatility surfaces with random parameters.
problem Inconsistent calibration of parametric implied volatility models when market volatility deviates from the model's regime.
method Introduces random coefficients for parametric implied volatility formulas, preserving analytic flexibility and efficiency.
result Demonstrates improved modeling of implied volatility curves, especially for short-term options and earnings announcements.
PolySwarm uses a swarm of LLMs to predict and arbitrage prediction markets.
problem Real-time prediction market trading and latency arbitrage inefficiencies.
method PolySwarm employs a swarm of 50 diverse LLMs, Bayesian combination, and risk-controlled execution.
result Swarm aggregation outperforms single-model baselines in prediction tasks.
Proposes a method to fill in missing swaption volatility data using variational autoencoders.
problem Missing swaption volatility data due to market illiquidity.
method Variational autoencoders for learning latent volatility representations, Gibbs sampling for inference.
result Imputed missing volatilities are robust and close to SABR fits.
We use life annuity prices to extract information about human longevity using a framework that links the term structure of mortality and interest rates. We invert the model and perform nonlinear least squares to obtain implied longevity forecasts. Methodologically, we assume a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) model for the und…
Efficiently simulates and calibrates the rough Bergomi model using Wasserstein distance.
problem High computational complexity in pricing and calibration of the rough Bergomi model.
method Developed a modified-sum-of-exponentials Monte Carlo scheme and a calibration approach based on Wasserstein-1 distance.
result The method achieves high pricing accuracy and improved parameter recovery, optimization stability, and out-of-sample performance.
Study improves keyword forecasting in earnings-call prediction markets.
problem Accurately predicting future keyword mentions in earnings calls.
method Experiments on earnings-call mention markets, varying context and market probability, introducing MCP.
result Mixture of market probability and MCP yields the best forecasts.
Hybrid method uses LLM to filter lead-lag relationships in prediction markets.
problem Challenges in discovering robust lead-lag relationships in prediction markets due to spurious correlations.
method Two-stage approach: statistical Granger causality followed by LLM semantic re-ranking.
result LLM-based method outperforms statistical baseline, increasing win rate and reducing average loss magnitude.
FINN learns option pricing and hedging using financial theory.
problem Learning accurate option prices and sensitivities from financial theory.
method Self-supervised replication objective based on dynamic hedging.
result FINN accurately recovers classical Black--Scholes prices and performs robustly in stochastic volatility environments.
Study analyzes AI's impact on firms, markets, and workers using large language model data.
problem Understanding AI's effect on firms, markets, and workers.
method Used 380 trillion tokens from 400+ large language models to analyze AI's impact.
result Firms with higher AI exposure earn higher returns, creating an AI premium.
We present a simple model of a non-equilibrium self-organizing market where asset prices are partially driven by investment decisions of a bounded-rational agent. The agent acts in a stochastic market environment driven by various exogenous "alpha" signals, agent's own actions (via market impact), and noise. Unlike tra…
This paper treats prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems to quantify uncertainty and identify event outcomes.
problem Uncertainty and identifiability in prediction market outcomes from price-volume histories.
method Formulates prediction markets as Bayesian inverse problems, introduces a log-odds observation model, and derives posterior uncertainty quantification and identifiability criteria.
result Explicit diagnostics for informative and stable inference regimes, and validation through synthetic data experiments.
Paper introduces non-linear discounting models for default compensation and climate valuation.
problem Valuation of non-replicable value and damage under default risk.
method Develops two models: one for risk-neutralising discounting and another for survival probability dependent discounting.
result Non-decaying discount factors (negative discount rates) are possible under certain scenarios.