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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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0111 · Dec 200719922001200920172026
7 results for Wright-Fisher

Develops a new volatility model for prediction markets.

problem Volatility forecasting in prediction markets differs from standard asset markets.
method Combines Wright-Fisher and Glosten-Milgrom mechanisms to model binary prediction markets.
result Structural model outperforms standard ARCH/GARCH models in volatility forecasting.

We introduce a mean-reverting SDE whose solution is naturally defined on the space of correlation matrices. This SDE can be seen as an extension of the well-known Wright-Fisher diffusion. We provide conditions that ensure weak and strong uniqueness of the SDE, and describe its ergodic limit. We also shed light on a use…

2011-08-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Starting from a sequence of independent Wright-Fisher diffusion processes on [0,1][0,1], we construct a class of reversible infinite dimensional diffusion processes on $\DD_\infty:= \{{\bf x}\in Let $MbeacompleteRiemnnianmanifoldand be a complete Riemnnian manifold and μthedistributionofthediffusionprocessgeneratedby the distribution of the diffusion process generated by \ff 1 2\DD+Zwhere where Z$…

2007-12-19abs ↗pdf ↗

We present the Wright-Fisher Indian buffet process (WF-IBP), a probabilistic model for time-dependent data assumed to have been generated by an unknown number of latent features. This model is suitable as a prior in Bayesian nonparametric feature allocation models in which the features underlying the observed data exhi…

2016-11-22abs ↗pdf ↗