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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,657 papers · 148 categories

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124247371494 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for safe estimator

Optimal and safe semi-supervised learning estimator for high-dimensional data.

problem Improving regression parameter estimation with unlabeled data in high-dimensional settings.
method Established minimax lower bound, proposed optimal and safe semi-supervised estimators.
result Optimal semi-supervised estimator achieves the minimax lower bound.

Previous work has shown the unreliability of existing algorithms in the batch Reinforcement Learning setting, and proposed the theoretically-grounded Safe Policy Improvement with Baseline Bootstrapping (SPIBB) fix: reproduce the baseline policy in the uncertain state-action pairs, in order to control the variance on th…

2019-09-11abs ↗pdf ↗

We propose a method to optimise the parameters of a policy which will be used to safely perform a given task in a data-efficient manner. We train a Gaussian process model to capture the system dynamics, based on the PILCO framework. Our model has useful analytic properties, which allow closed form computation of error …

2017-12-15abs ↗pdf ↗

Bandit algorithms have various application in safety-critical systems, where it is important to respect the system constraints that rely on the bandit's unknown parameters at every round. In this paper, we formulate a linear stochastic multi-armed bandit problem with safety constraints that depend (linearly) on an unkn…

2019-08-16abs ↗pdf ↗

A method for safe online classification reduces test costs while maintaining low error rates.

problem Sequential testing for binary disease outcomes with unknown logistic model parameters.
method Joint estimation of logistic parameter and feature distribution with a conservative threshold.
result Achieves target error with high probability and requires minimal excess tests.

Safe-FinRL uses DRL for high-frequency stock trading, reducing bias and variance.

problem Challenges in applying DRL to high-frequency stock trading, especially bias and variance issues.
method Safe-FinRL separates financial time series into near-stationary short environments and uses Trace-SAC with a general retrace operator.
result Safe-FinRL reduces bias and variance significantly in near-stationary financial environments.

We introduce the safe linear stochastic bandit framework---a generalization of linear stochastic bandits---where, in each stage, the learner is required to select an arm with an expected reward that is no less than a predetermined (safe) threshold with high probability. We assume that the learner initially has knowledg…

2019-11-21abs ↗pdf ↗

TULiP estimates uncertainty for deep learning models safely.

problem Reliable uncertainty estimation for deep learning models in the open world.
method TULiP considers a hypothetical perturbation, bounds its effect, and computes uncertainty from sampled predictions.
result TULiP achieves state-of-the-art performance in OOD detection benchmarks.

CoCoRL learns safe constraints from demonstrations with unknown rewards.

problem Learning safe constraints from demonstrations with different unknown rewards.
method Convex Constraint Learning for Reinforcement Learning (CoCoRL) constructs a convex safe set based on demonstrations.
result CoCoRL learns constraints that lead to safe driving behavior and can safely transfer to different tasks and environments.

Safe exploration in RF-RL doesn't increase sample complexity.

problem Achieving optimal policies with safety constraints in reward-free RL.
method Proposed SWEET framework for tabular and low-rank MDP settings, leveraging truncated value functions.
result Sample complexities match or outperform constraint-free counterparts, proving safety constraints have little impact.

Tail-Safe hedging uses reinforcement learning with a safety layer to manage financial risks.

problem Managing financial risks in derivatives trading with robustness and explainability.
method Combines distributional reinforcement learning with a CBF-QP safety layer to enforce financial constraints.
result Improves risk management without degrading central performance and avoids hard constraint violations.

The paper tackles safe exploration in RL by a conservative safety critic.

problem Safe exploration in reinforcement learning (RL) when partially trained policies are deployed.
method Learning a conservative safety estimate through a critic, provably bounding catastrophic failures.
result The approach provably converges to competitive task performance with significantly lower catastrophic failure rates.

High dimensional regression benefits from sparsity promoting regularizations. Screening rules leverage the known sparsity of the solution by ignoring some variables in the optimization, hence speeding up solvers. When the procedure is proven not to discard features wrongly the rules are said to be \emph{safe}. In this …

2015-06-11abs ↗pdf ↗

We show that when a third party, the adversary, steps into the two-party setting (agent and operator) of safely interruptible reinforcement learning, a trade-off has to be made between the probability of following the optimal policy in the limit, and the probability of escaping a dangerous situation created by the adve…

2018-05-29abs ↗pdf ↗

We study safe screening for metric learning. Distance metric learning can optimize a metric over a set of triplets, each one of which is defined by a pair of same class instances and an instance in a different class. However, the number of possible triplets is quite huge even for a small dataset. Our safe triplet scree…

2018-02-12abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper provides a non-asymptotic error bound for linear system identification under nonlinear policies.

problem System identification for linear systems with nonlinear and/or time-varying policies under i.i.d. random excitation noises.
method Least square estimation with non-asymptotic error bound for bounded state and action trajectories.
result The error bound is consistent with linear policies and generalizes existing guarantees.

We study the safe reinforcement learning problem with nonlinear function approximation, where policy optimization is formulated as a constrained optimization problem with both the objective and the constraint being nonconvex functions. For such a problem, we construct a sequence of surrogate convex constrained optimiza…

2019-10-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Safe active learning for multi-output Gaussian processes reduces data acquisition costs and ensures safety.

problem Expensive data acquisition and safety concerns in multi-output regression problems.
method Proposes a safe active learning approach considering data informativeness and safety constraints.
result Improved convergence compared to competitors on simulated and real-world datasets.

Proposes a method to accelerate safe sequential learning using offline data.

problem Limited exploration due to disconnected safe regions and slow task learning.
method Safe transfer sequential learning using Gaussian processes and offline data.
result Enhances global exploration across multiple disjoint safe regions with lower data consumption.

Revel tackles safe exploration in RL with verified symbolic policies.

problem Computational infeasibility of verifying neural networks in RL learning loops.
method Two policy classes: neurosymbolic with approximate gradients and symbolic policies for efficient verification. Mirror descent over policies to safely update and project policies.
result Revel discovers policies that outperform prior approaches to verified exploration.

Batch Reinforcement Learning (Batch RL) consists in training a policy using trajectories collected with another policy, called the behavioural policy. Safe policy improvement (SPI) provides guarantees with high probability that the trained policy performs better than the behavioural policy, also called baseline in this…

2019-07-11abs ↗pdf ↗

We study the problem of safe learning and exploration in sequential control problems. The goal is to safely collect data samples from operating in an environment, in order to learn to achieve a challenging control goal (e.g., an agile maneuver close to a boundary). A central challenge in this setting is how to quantify…

2019-06-13abs ↗pdf ↗

Crypto-assets perform better than gold as safe-havens during market crashes.

problem Evaluating safe-haven properties of crypto-assets and gold during the 2020 market crash.
method Comparative analysis of Crypto-assets (Tether, Cardano, Dogecoin, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple) and gold for European indices.
result Tether, Cardano, and Dogecoin exhibited hedging properties similar to gold, while gold was not more efficient as a safe-haven.

Safe autonomous decisions made with machine learning predictions using Conformal Decision Theory.

problem Safe decisions from imperfect machine learning predictions.
method Conformal Decision Theory framework for producing safe decisions.
result Safe decisions with provable statistical guarantees of low risk.

Safe screening rules reduce computation time in logistic regression with 02\ell_0-\ell_2 regularization.

problem Efficiently solving logistic regression with many features and regularization.
method Screening rules based on Fenchel dual lower bounds of strong conic relaxations.
result A high percentage of features can be safely removed before solving, leading to substantial speed-up.

In high dimensional regression settings, sparsity enforcing penalties have proved useful to regularize the data-fitting term. A recently introduced technique called screening rules propose to ignore some variables in the optimization leveraging the expected sparsity of the solutions and consequently leading to faster s…

2016-11-17abs ↗pdf ↗

SAMBA improves safe reinforcement learning with active exploration metrics.

problem Safe reinforcement learning in dynamic systems.
method Combines probabilistic modelling, information theory, and statistics. Uses novel metrics for out-of-sample Gaussian process evaluation.
result Orders of magnitude reduction in samples and violations compared to state-of-the-art methods.

Safe-M3^3-UCRL learns safe policies for multi-agent systems with global constraints.

problem Global constraints in mean-field reinforcement learning for multi-agent systems.
method Safe-M3^3-UCRL uses epistemic uncertainty and log-barrier approach to ensure constraints satisfaction.
result Safe-M3^3-UCRL learns safe policies for multi-agent systems with global constraints.

During times of extreme market turmoil, it is acknowledged that there is a tendency towards "flight to safety". A strong (weak) safe haven is defined as an asset that has a significant positive (negative) return in periods where another asset is in distress, while hedge has to be negatively correlated (uncorrelated) on…

2017-03-01abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper defines ε-Safe Decision Regions for exponential family distributions and approximates them for unbalanced data.

problem Need probabilistic guarantees for reliable predictions in machine learning.
method Formalizes ε-Safe Decision Regions, proves their form for exponential family distributions, and develops Multi Cost SVM for unbalanced data.
result Formal definition and analytical determination of ε-Safe Decision Regions for exponential family distributions.