A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Paper improves Lasso for S&P500 index tracking with post-selection inference.
Paper classifies short straddles on S&P500 daily.
Empirical study finds variance swap rate is affine in spot variance for S&P500 data.
Transformer models predict financial time series movements accurately.
We study the volatility of the S&P500 stock index from 1984 to 1996 and find that the volatility distribution can be very well described by a log-normal function. Further, using detrended fluctuation analysis we show that the volatility is power-law correlated with Hurst exponent .
This paper compares stationarity in Bitcoin and S&P500 price indices.
An original method, assuming potential and kinetic energy for prices and conservation of their sum is developed for forecasting exchanges. Connections with power law are shown. Semiempirical applications on S&P500, DJIA, and NASDAQ predict a coming recession in them. An emerging market, Istanbul Stock Exchange index IS…
Deep learning models predict S&P500 option hedge ratios.
New approach decodes stock volatility states for S&P500 network.
This study examines memory effects in S&P500 market correlations using Langevin models.
Study evaluates hedging strategies for S&P500 index options.
Unified framework predicts S&P500 index direction using transfer learning and causal graph.
Forecasting stock market decline and recovery post-COVID-19.
Recently we reported on an application of the Tsallis non-extensive statistics to the S&P500 stock index. There we argued that the statistics are applicable to a broad range of markets and exchanges where anamolous (super) diffusion and 'heavy' tails of the distribution are present, as they are in the S&P500. We have c…
The S&P500 daily values and log-returns fail to conform to Benford's laws, revealing underlying trends.
Develops a PIDE framework for option pricing with stochastic volatility and jumps.
Python tool detects economic crises from S&P500 correlation data.
Paper uses Simulated Bifurcation for quick asset allocation optimization.
Enhanced indexation with sector constraints using SSD for better portfolio performance.
This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 index for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, we investigate the evolution of the market space and define a new measure for that purpose, which is a robust index of the dynamics of the market structure and provides information on the int…
Bitcoin fails to prove safe haven status during pandemic.
Modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution captures asymmetry in stock returns.
We model leverage as stochastic but independent of return shocks and of volatility and perform likelihood-based inference via the recently developed iterated filtering algorithm using S&P500 data, contributing new evidence to the still slim empirical support for random leverage variation.
Explains classic quantitative strategies and their workings.
This paper improves dynamic hedging accuracy using genetic programming to forecast implied volatilities.
In this paper we state the fundamental principles of the gauge approach to financial economics and demonstrate the ways of its application. In particular, modelling of realistic price processes is considered for an example of S&P500 market index. Derivative pricing and portfolio theory are also briefly discussed.
We investigate a factor that can affect the number of links of a specific stock in a network between stocks created by the minimal spanning tree (MST) method, by using individual stock data listed on the S&P500 and KOSPI. Among the common factors mentioned in the arbitrage pricing model (APM), widely acknowledged in th…
American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are exchange-traded certificates that rep- resent shares of non-U.S. company securities. They are major financial instruments for investing in foreign companies. Focusing on Asian ADRs in the context of asyn- chronous markets, we present methodologies and results of empirical analysi…
The study assesses music as an investment asset class using discounted cashflow models.
We introduce a model for the short-term dynamics of financial assets based on an application to finance of quantum gauge theory, developing ideas of Ilinski. We present a numerical algorithm for the computation of the probability distribution of prices and compare the results with APPLE stocks prices and the S&P500 ind…
A remarkable similarity in the behavior of the US S&P500 index from 1996 to August 2002 and of the Japanese Nikkei index from 1985 to 1992 (11 years shift) is presented, with particular emphasis on the structure of the bearish phases. Extending a previous analysis of Johansen and Sornette [1999, 2000] on the Nikkei ind…
This paper is an attempt at understanding the quantum-like dynamics of financial markets in terms of non-differentiable price-time continuum having fractal properties. The main steps of this development are the statistical scaling, the non-differentiability hypothesis, and the equations of motion entailed by this hypot…
Study news networks to predict stock returns.
Accumulated stock returns exhibit tempered skew t-distribution.
Model predicts S&P500 volatility more accurately than existing models.
Signed network models reduce portfolio risk by considering negative edges in financial markets.
Generative Networks outperform traditional methods in PiT ESG generation.
Forecasting US stock market indices during COVID-19 using machine learning models.
This paper investigates the dynamics of in the S&P500 index from daily returns for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, each S&P500 yearly batch of data is embedded in a subspace that can be accurately described by a reduced number of dimensions. Such feature is understood as empirical evidence for…
We have applied the Zipf method to extract the exponent for seven financial indices (DAX, FTSE; DJIA, NASDAQ, S&P500; Hang-Seng and Nikkei 225), after having translated the signals into a text based on two letters. We follow considerations based on the signal Hurst exponent and the notion of a time dependent Zipf …
Improved stock return prediction model handles noise and non-stationarity.
We show that recent stock market fluctuations are characterized by the cumulative distributions whose tails on short, minute time scales exhibit power scaling with the scaling index alpha > 3 and this index tends to increase quickly with decreasing sampling frequency. Our study is based on high-frequency recordings of …
In this paper we implement a Local Linear Regression Ensemble Committee (LOLREC) to predict 1-day-ahead returns of 453 assets form the S&P500. The estimates and the historical returns of the committees are used to compute the weights of the portfolio from the 453 stock. The proposed method outperforms benchmark portfol…
The stochastic leverage effect, defined as the standardized covariation between the returns and their related volatility, is analyzed in a stochastic volatility model set-up. A novel estimator of the effect is defined using a pre-estimation of the Fourier coefficients of the return and the volatility processes. The con…
We investigated the network structures of the Japanese stock market through the minimum spanning tree. We defined grouping coefficient to test the validity of conventional grouping by industrial categories, and found a decreasing in trend for the coefficient. This phenomenon supports the increasing external influences …
In this paper, we quantify the statistical coherence between financial time series by means of the Renyi entropy. With the help of Campbell's coding theorem we show that the Renyi entropy selectively emphasizes only certain sectors of the underlying empirical distribution while strongly suppressing others. This accentu…
Using a metric related to the returns correlation, a method is proposed to reconstruct an economic space from the market data. A reduced subspace, associated to the systematic structure of the market, is identified and its dimension related to the number of terms in factor models. Example were worked out involving sets…
We recently showed that the S&P500 stock market index is well described by Tsallis non-extensive statistics and nonlinear Fokker-Planck time evolution. We argued that these results should be applicable to a broad range of markets and exchanges where anomalous diffusion and `heavy' tails of the distribution are present.…