This paper studies the interrelation between spot and futures prices in the two major rice markets in prewar Japan from the perspective of market efficiency. Applying a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach to the fundamental equation for spot returns and the futures premium, we detect when efficiency reductions in …
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48 results for “rice futures”
Study shows government discretion affects rice futures market efficiency.
problem Impact of government discretion on rice futures market efficiency.
method Time-varying VAR model to compare market efficiency and government actions.
result Government discretion reduces market efficiency, while systematic rule-like behavior improves it.
This study analyzes how colonial rice trade in prewar Japan affected its rice market, considering several government interventions in the two rice futures exchanges in Tokyo and Osaka. We explore the interventions in the futures markets using two procedures. First, we measure the joint degree of efficiency in the marke…
Research predicts rice prices in Banda Aceh post-COVID using ARIMA models.
problem Forecasting rice prices in Banda Aceh post-COVID-19.
method Used LOCF imputation for missing data and auto-ARIMA for forecasting.
result ARIMA model (0,0,5) best for all rice qualities, showing price decline and then stability.
Study compares machine learning and process-based models for predicting rice blast disease.
problem Predicting rice blast disease to support rice growers in controlling the disease.
method Compared four models: two process-based (Yoshino and WARM) and two machine learning (M5Rules and RNN).
result Machine learning models outperformed process-based models in predicting rice blast disease.
Study on market integration of Japanese rice markets using telegraph and telephone policies.
problem Understanding market integration in prewar Japanese rice markets.
method Non-Bayesian time-varying vector error correction model, analyzing government policies on telegraph and telephone networks.
result Market integration occurred in the 1910s, with telegraph use accelerating integration and telephone system improvement promoting it.
Study examines spillovers between BRICS and U.S. staple grain futures markets.
problem Contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects in BRICS staple grain futures markets and their linkages with U.S. markets.
method Examines contemporaneous and lagged spillover effects using econometric models.
result Contemporaneous spillovers dominate, and net spillovers are driven by lagged connectedness. Systemic risk is lower in intra-BRICS markets compared to those including the U.S.
The Lugannani-Rice formula is a saddlepoint approximation method for estimating the tail probability distribution function, which was originally studied for the sum of independent identically distributed random variables. Because of its tractability, the formula is now widely used in practical financial engineering as …
Study improves paddy rice yield predictions in Peru using sparse regression and climatic variables.
problem Improving precision of paddy rice yield forecasts in Peru.
method Sparse regression, Elastic-Net regularization, climatic variables, dynamic transformations.
result Improved predictive performance of paddy rice yield forecasts.
Uncovering the Sino-US dynamic risk spillovers effects: Evidence from agricultural futures marketsecon.GN
Study measures risk spillovers between US and China's agricultural futures markets.
problem Interconnectedness and risk transmission in agricultural futures markets.
method TVP-VAR-DY model with quantile method.
result CBOT corn, soybean, and wheat are primary risk transmitters; DCE corn and soybean are main receivers.
We extend Kac-Rice formula to compute expected intersections of random submanifolds.
problem Computing expected intersections of random submanifolds.
method Generalized Kac-Rice formula using measure theory and integration.
result Formula computes expected cardinality of preimages of submanifolds via random maps.
Russia-Ukraine conflict impacts global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
problem Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global agricultural futures and spot markets' extreme risks.
method Analytical framework for tail dependence, Copula-CoVaR method, ARMA-GARCH-skewed Student-t model.
result The outbreak of the conflict intensified risks in the wheat market the most and showed significant asymmetries in extreme risk spillovers.
Study finds intrinsic multifractality in maize and barley spot markets, but not in wheat and rice.
problem Understanding the complex price behavior of global grain spot markets.
method Utilized multifractal fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to investigate intrinsic multifractality.
result Intrinsic multifractality found in maize and barley sub-indices, but not in wheat and rice.
Method analyzes complexity of empirical risk landscapes for generalized linear models.
problem Understanding the complexity of empirical risk landscapes in generalized linear models.
method Kac-Rice method and replicated method from theoretical physics.
result Explicit variational formulas for the number of critical points of empirical risk landscapes.
Study finds the number of modes in Gaussian kernel density estimators scales with sqrt(β log β).
problem Determining the number of clusters in Transformers.
method Used Kac-Rice formula and Edgeworth expansion to prove scaling.
result The expected number of modes scales as Θ(√(β log β)).
MO-GP models fill gaps in biophysical data with across-domain info transfer.
problem Gap filling of biophysical parameters LAI and fAPAR over rice areas.
method Multi-output Gaussian Processes (MO-GP) based on Linear Model of Coregionalization (LMC).
result MO-GP models successfully predict biophysical variables even in high missing data regimes.
Formula for critical points of chi fields on manifolds.
problem Computing critical points of chi fields on general manifolds.
method Semi-analytic formula using Kac-Rice argument and Hessian matrix representation.
result Expression for expected value of critical points in high-threshold limit.
Trade networks for maize, rice, soy, and wheat are more vulnerable to shocks.
problem Increased complexity in international crop trade networks makes them more susceptible to cascades of demand failures.
method Analyzed FAO data from 176 countries over 21 years to construct higher-order trade dependency networks.
result Trade networks are more prone to failure cascades caused by exogenous shocks.
Market Crashes as Critical Phenomena? Explanation, Idealization, and Universality in Econophysicsphysics.hist-ph
The JLS model explains market crashes as critical phenomena.
problem Understanding market crashes as critical points.
method Study of Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette model.
result The JLS model provides a causal explanation of market crashes.
Develops calculus for random submanifolds using zonoids.
problem Calculating properties of random submanifolds defined by zero sets of vector fields.
method Defines zonoid sections and uses them to compute expected volumes and currents.
result Establishes new inequalities and formulas for random submanifolds.
Gradient ascent solves tensor decomposition efficiently, proving all local maxima are global.
problem Optimizing tensor decomposition problems in machine learning.
method Gradient ascent, Kac-Rice formula, random matrix theory.
result Gradient ascent guarantees solving tensor decomposition problems efficiently.
Formulas calculate zero-set volume on Riemannian manifolds.
problem Computing zero-set volumes on Riemannian manifolds.
method Formulas based on function and its derivatives.
result Volume formulas for zero-sets on manifolds.
Complex energy landscapes in spiked-tensor and simple glassy models: ruggedness, arrangements of local minima and phase transitionscond-mat.dis-nn
Study energy landscapes in glass models, focusing on Gaussian and spiked-tensor functions.
problem Characterize statistical properties and phase transitions of high-dimensional energy landscapes.
method Developed a Kac-Rice method framework to compute landscape complexity and analyze phase transitions rigorously.
result Characterized the ruggedness and arrangements of local minima in energy landscapes.
Random Differential Topologymath.DG
The study of topological properties of random smooth maps, focusing on Kac-Rice formula and Betti numbers.
problem Topological and geometric properties of random smooth maps.
method Developed a general framework for differential geometric and topological issues of smooth Gaussian Random Fields, generalized Kac-Rice formula, applied to Kostlan random polynomials, and proved an original theorem in Differential Topology.
result The Betti numbers of the solution of a system of regular equations cannot decrease under a -small perturbation of the equations.
Gradient-flow helps find good minima in complex models.
problem Understanding why gradient-based algorithms work in non-convex optimization.
method Kac-Rice analysis and gradient-flow from statistical physics.
result Gradient-flow finds good global minima in the presence of many spurious local minima.
Uniform first order interpretation of the second order theory of countable groups of homeomorphismsmath.GR
Uniform interpretation of group theory in manifold homeomorphisms.
problem Understanding group properties in manifold homeomorphisms.
method First order theory interpretation of second order group theory.
result Many group theory problems encoded in homeomorphism groups.
We analyze the landscape of empirical risk minimization for high-dimensional models, predicting phase transitions and critical point properties.
problem Understanding the complexity and structure of high-dimensional empirical risk landscapes.
method Using the Kac-Rice formula, we analyze the expected number of critical points and their spectral properties, providing detailed predictions.
result We derive complete topological phase diagrams for the phase retrieval problem, predicting BBP-type transitions and critical point stability.
Study analyzes climate impact on agricultural prices, offering insurance solutions.
problem Financial risk from climate-induced agricultural price volatility.
method Historical and future climate projections, EGARCH and SARIMAX models, Black-Scholes framework.
result Improved agricultural risk modeling and insurance mechanisms.
Two impossibility theorems show formal alignment certification is impossible for AI systems.
problem Formal certification of AI alignment over open-ended domains is impossible.
method Two independent impossibility theorems: Semantic and Statistical barriers.
result No procedure can simultaneously satisfy soundness, completeness, and tractability.
New method tracks evolving data metrics.
problem Nonstationary changes in data constraints.
method Online Convex Ensemble StrongLy Adaptive Dynamic Learning (OCELAD).
result Significant performance improvements and robustness.
The paper analyzes local minima in high-dimensional empirical risk minimization.
problem Understanding local minima in high-dimensional data models.
method Using Kac-Rice formula and proportional asymptotics, the paper derives bounds on local minima.
result Sharp asymptotics on estimation and prediction errors are derived.
Study finds multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and external uncertainties.
problem Investigating relationships between agricultural spot markets and external uncertainties.
method Multifractal detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (MF-X-DMA).
result Maize exhibits intrinsic joint multifractality with all uncertainty proxies.
The paper classifies U.S. crop types using hyperspectral satellite imagery.
problem Classifying crop types from hyperspectral satellite imagery.
method Gaussian Bayesian models and neural networks applied to NASA data.
result Bayesian methods outperform standard LDA and QDA.
Study on complexity of random polynomials with deterministic spikes, identifying phase transitions.
problem Complexity of random Gaussian polynomials with deterministic spikes on a sphere.
method Variational formulas, Kac-Rice formula, determinant asymptotics of finite-rank perturbation of Gaussian Wigner matrices.
result Identification of a topological phase transition in the complexity function.
Study on variance of Laplace eigenfunctions on manifolds.
problem Investigating the variance of Laplace eigenfunctions on compact manifolds.
method Combining Kac-Rice formula, Wiener-Itô chaos decompositions, and pointwise Weyl law analysis.
result Established a quantitative bound for the fluctuations of nodal volumes, improving existing results.
Study on descent algorithms in spiked matrix-tensor models, revealing performance issues and solutions.
problem Analysis of descent algorithms in spiked matrix-tensor models.
method Quantitative analysis using Kac-Rice formula and PDEs for Langevin dynamics.
result Gradient flow dynamics slow down in regions with spurious local minima, while AMP performs well.
Study analyzes landscape complexity of empirical loss functions with correlated data.
problem Understanding the complexity of loss landscapes in machine learning with structured data.
method Kac-Rice formula and random matrix theory applied to high-dimensional empirical loss functions.
result Characterizes the average number of critical points in loss functions with structured data.
Consider a matrix whose rows are independent centered non-degenerate Gaussian vectors with covariance matrices . Denote by the location-dispersion ellipsoid of . We sh…
Kriging predicts futures prices by accounting for trends and bid-ask spreads.
problem Predicting futures prices with trends and bid-ask spreads.
method Bayesian Kriging technique to model term structure.
result Kriging accurately predicts futures prices with embedded trends and bid-ask spreads.
Study reveals dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets.
problem Exploring interdependence between Peanut and other agricultural commodities in Chinese futures market.
method Constructed multivariate linear regression models and used VAR and DCC-EGARCH models for dynamic relationships. Applied MLP, CNN, and LSTM neural networks for price prediction.
result Significant dynamic linkage between Peanut and Soybean Oil futures markets through DCC-EGARCH, limited influence from other futures markets through VAR model.
Trading Signals In VIX Futuresq-fin.CP
Proposes a new VIX futures trading strategy based on term structure modeling.
problem Optimizing VIX futures trading based on term structure.
method Assumes VIX futures term structure follows a Markov model. Uses a deep neural network to model the functional dependence between VIX futures curve, positions, and expected utility.
result Backtests show reasonable portfolio performance and optimal long/short positions.
Gradient boosting algorithm for spatial panel models improves estimation in high-dimensional settings.
problem Estimation failure in high-dimensional spatial panel models.
method Model-based gradient boosting algorithm for spatial panel models with random and fixed effects.
result Feasibility and interpretability in both low- and high-dimensional settings.
Formulas for curvature measures of sublevel sets on manifolds derived from function and derivatives.
problem Calculating intrinsic volumes of sublevel sets on Riemannian manifolds.
method Established formulas involving integrals of functionals of function and its derivatives.
result Formulas for intrinsic volumes of sublevel sets on Riemannian manifolds.
Perpetual Futures Pricingq-fin.PR
Derives pricing formulas for perpetual futures contracts.
problem Ensuring fair pricing of perpetual futures contracts without expiration.
method Explicit expressions derived for various types of perpetual contracts, including linear, inverse, and quantos futures.
result Futures price is the risk-neutral expectation of the spot price sampled at a random time reflecting funding payments.
Hidden Markov model predicts profitable statistical arbitrage in Shanghai crude oil futures.
problem Statistical arbitrage opportunities in international crude oil futures markets.
method Hidden Markov model for cointegration spread, mean-reverting regime-switching process.
result Statistical arbitrage strategies involving Shanghai crude oil futures are profitable.
Calibrates carbon futures option pricing using high-frequency data.
problem Estimating equity and variance risk premia for carbon futures options.
method Multifactor stochastic volatility framework with jumps, employing indirect inference.
result Provides insights into carbon futures and option dynamics.
Futures trading is the core of futures business, and it is considered as one of the typical complex systems. To investigate the complexity of futures trading, we employ the analytical method of complex networks. First, we use real trading records from the Shanghai Futures Exchange to construct futures trading networks,…
Study optimal trading strategies for futures contracts using stochastic control.
problem Optimizing dynamic trading of futures contracts over a finite horizon.
method Formulate a utility maximization problem based on the Schwartz 97 model, solve HJB equation to derive optimal strategies.
result Derive optimal dynamic trading strategies in closed form for single or multiple futures contracts.