On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and c…
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48 results for “cascades”
This paper optimizes power grid protection settings to maximize network degradation due to cascading attacks.
problem Cascading attacks on power grids and their undetected nature.
method Constrained Bayesian Optimization applied to transmission line protection settings.
result Even limited misconfiguration of protection settings can cause severe cascading attacks.
Model infers diffusion networks from heterogeneous cascade data.
problem Understanding and predicting diffusion processes in interconnected populations.
method Double mixture directed graph model with layer-specific constraints.
result Convex formulation allows for statistical and computational guarantees.
New insights into cascade feedback linearization of control systems.
problem Obtaining a cascade feedback linearization for invariant control systems.
method Introducing truncated versions of operators from the calculus of variations to prove new theorems.
result Established new geometry and foundational theorems for future work.
Diffusion reach probability between two nodes on a network is defined as the probability of a cascade originating from one node reaching to another node. An infinite number of cascades would enable calculation of true diffusion reach probabilities between any two nodes. However, there exists only a finite number of cas…
Modeling cascading behavior in complex systems using CTBNs.
problem Understanding which states trigger cascading events in complex systems.
method Continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) for modeling and identifying likely sentry states.
result Identification of likely sentry states that may lead to cascading behavior.
Motivated by the pressing need for efficient optimization in online recommender systems, we revisit the cascading bandit model proposed by Kveton et al. (2015). While Thompson sampling (TS) algorithms have been shown to be empirically superior to Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithms for cascading bandits, theoretica…
Explicit size distributions of failure cascades redefine systemic risk on finite networksphysics.soc-ph
How big is the risk that a few initial failures of nodes in a network amplify to large cascades that span a substantial share of all nodes? Predicting the final cascade size is critical to ensure the functioning of a system as a whole. Yet, this task is hampered by uncertain or changing parameters and missing informati…
Study on information cascade fragility under mismatched revealing probabilities.
problem Analyzing the fragility of information cascades in decision-making processes with imperfect knowledge of revealing probabilities.
method Examined sequential decision-making models with players having private information and imitating previous decisions. Studied the effect of a mismatch between players' beliefs and actual revealing probabilities.
result Derived closed-form expressions for optimal learning rates and identified phase transitions in the behavior of asymptotic learning rates.
A search engine usually outputs a list of web pages. The user examines this list, from the first web page to the last, and chooses the first attractive page. This model of user behavior is known as the cascade model. In this paper, we propose cascading bandits, a learning variant of the cascade model where the obje…
Structured prediction tasks pose a fundamental trade-off between the need for model complexity to increase predictive power and the limited computational resources for inference in the exponentially-sized output spaces such models require. We formulate and develop the Structured Prediction Cascade architecture: a seque…
Bayesian optimization tackles expensive cascade processes.
problem Optimizing multistage decision-making processes with expensive costs.
method Formulated as Bayesian optimization framework with two types of acquisition functions.
result Demonstrated effectiveness through numerical experiments and a solar cell simulator application.
Do Cascades Recur?cs.SI
Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Faceb…
The paper addresses the -tangle enumeration problem. We introduce a notion of cascade diagram for -tangle projections. An effective enumeration algorithm for projections is proposed based on cascade representation. Tangles projections with up to 12 crossings are tabulated. We provide also pictures of alternating …
Modeling social network activity through user and topic interaction.
problem Understanding complex dynamics of opinion formation in social networks.
method Mixture of Interacting Cascades (MIC) model of marked multidimensional Hawkes processes.
result MIC achieves superior performance in modeling information cascade spread.
Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures from these observed cascades? What kind of cascades and how many cascades do we …
We consider the problem of finding the graph on which an epidemic cascade spreads, given only the times when each node gets infected. While this is a problem of importance in several contexts -- offline and online social networks, e-commerce, epidemiology, vulnerabilities in infrastructure networks -- there has been ve…
DICE estimates data influence cascade in decentralized learning networks.
problem Lack of fair incentives discourages participation in decentralized learning.
method Designs DICE to estimate influence cascade in decentralized networks.
result Influence cascade is influenced by data, topology, and loss landscape curvature.
In this paper, we present a new approach to learning cascaded classifiers for use in computing environments that involve networks of heterogeneous and resource-constrained, low-power embedded compute and sensing nodes. We present a generalization of the classical linear detection cascade to the case of tree-structured …
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.
Non-stationarity appears in many online applications such as web search and advertising. In this paper, we study the online learning to rank problem in a non-stationary environment where user preferences change abruptly at an unknown moment in time. We consider the problem of identifying the K most attractive items and…
We introduce a probabilistic framework that represents stylized banking networks with the aim of predicting the size of contagion events. Most previous work on random financial networks assumes independent connections between banks, whereas our framework explicitly allows for (dis)assortative edge probabilities (e.g., …
Model financial default cascades on sparse graphs via hitting times.
problem Capturing systemic risk in large, sparsely-connected financial networks.
method Dynamic particle systems with hitting times and convergence theory.
result Characterization of default time distribution in tree-like networks.
In this paper, we present a general, multistage framework for graphical model approximation using a cascade of models such as trees. In particular, we look at the problem of covariance matrix approximation for Gaussian distributions as linear transformations of tree models. This is a new way to decompose the covariance…
Cascading flows improve variational inference in structured programs.
problem Challenges in variational inference for complex probabilistic programs.
method Integrates normalizing flows and ASVI to create cascading flows, which embed the forward-pass of probabilistic programs.
result Cascading flows outperform normalizing flows and ASVI in structured inference problems.
I show the equivalence between a model of financial contagion and the threshold model of global cascades proposed by Watts (2002). The model financial network comprises banks that hold risky external assets as well as interbank assets. It is shown that a simple threshold model can replicate the size and the frequency o…
Paper develops a neural model to assess cascading extreme events.
problem Risk assessment of domino effects like earthquakes and tsunamis.
method Develops a Kolmogorov-Arnold neural network (KANE) framework.
result Estimates the probability of one extreme event triggering another.
Algorithm estimates clock in network cascades to improve performance.
problem Temporal distortion in cascade observation leads to performance degradation.
method Formulated clock estimation problem, developed FastClock algorithm.
result FastClock algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art in terms of accuracy and speed.
A new algorithm balances exploration and exploitation in online decision-making.
problem Balancing exploration and exploitation in online decision-making.
method Proposed -UCB algorithm incorporating conservative mechanism.
result Proved n-step upper regret bound for two situations.
We introduce a new sequential Monte Carlo algorithm we call the particle cascade. The particle cascade is an asynchronous, anytime alternative to traditional particle filtering algorithms. It uses no barrier synchronizations which leads to improved particle throughput and memory efficiency. It is an anytime algorithm i…
In the Network Inference problem, one seeks to recover the edges of an unknown graph from the observations of cascades propagating over this graph. In this paper, we approach this problem from the sparse recovery perspective. We introduce a general model of cascades, including the voter model and the independent cascad…
A probabilistic framework is introduced that represents stylized banking networks and aims to predict the size of contagion events. In contrast to previous work on random financial networks, which assumes independent connections between banks, the possibility of disassortative edge probabilities (an above average tende…
This work proposes an efficient autoregressive model for text generation.
problem The challenge of generating high-quality text with autoregressive models.
method Introduces a cascaded decoding approach using Markov transformers to achieve sub-linear parallel time generation.
result Shows competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.
We analyze cascades of defaults in an interbank loan market. The novel feature of this study is that the network structure and the size distribution of banks are derived from empirical data. We find that the ability of a defaulted institution to start a cascade depends on an interplay of shock size and connectivity. Fu…
Adaptive cascade submodular maximization tackles sequential selection under uncertainty.
problem Maximizing expected utility from a set of items with unknown states and continuation probabilities.
method Proposed adaptive cascade submodular functions and a 0.12 approximation algorithm.
result Identified a class of functions (adaptive cascade submodular) that many practical applications satisfy.
We address the problem of influence maximization when the social network is accompanied by diffusion cascades. In prior works, such information is used to compute influence probabilities, which is utilized by stochastic diffusion models in influence maximization. Motivated by the recent criticism on the effectiveness o…
This paper proposes a cascading failure mitigation strategy based on Reinforcement Learning (RL) method. Firstly, the principles of RL are introduced. Then, the Multi-Stage Cascading Failure (MSCF) problem is presented and its challenges are investigated. The problem is then tackled by the RL based on DC-OPF (Optimal P…
Information Cascades Model captures dynamical properties of user activity in a social network. In this work, we develop a novel framework for activity shaping under the Continuous-Time Information Cascades Model which allows the administrator for local control actions by allocating targeted resources that can alter the…
Multiplicative random cascade model naturally reproduces the intermittency or multifractality, which is frequently shown among hierarchical complex systems such as turbulence and financial markets. As described herein, we investigate the validity of a multiplicative hierarchical random cascade model through an empirica…
Algorithm optimizes cascaded functions with known structure.
problem Optimizing a function network with known structure.
method GPN-UCB algorithm with upper confidence bounds and theoretical regret bounds.
result Near-optimal cumulative and simple regret bounds.
External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical constellations determine whether this cascade remains finite or reaches the size o…
Graph Cascades rewire graphs to improve structure-aware learning.
problem Improving graph neural networks and transformers for structure-aware learning.
method Graph Cascades uses contagion-based diffusion processes to construct an auxiliary graph with reinforced edges.
result Graph Cascades improves node-classification benchmarks across various graph types.
A Data-Driven Probabilistic Framework for Cascading Urban Risk Analysis Using Bayesian Networkscs.LG
Bayesian network framework assesses urban risks across multiple domains.
problem Complex interdependencies in urban systems.
method Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) with DAGs, Hill-Climbing search, BIC, K2 scoring, synthetic data, SMOTE.
result Identifies key risk factors and quantifies likelihood of cascading failures.
The paper examines clearing payments in financial networks to prevent cascaded defaults.
problem Cascaded defaults in financial networks under the proportionality rule.
method Analysis of clearing model under pro-rated payments, derivation of necessary and sufficient conditions for clearing payments, convex optimization problems for computation.
result Clearing payments can be computed by solving convex optimization problems, reducing overall system loss by lifting the proportionality rule.
We study the tradeoff between computational effort and classification accuracy in a cascade of deep neural networks. During inference, the user sets the acceptable accuracy degradation which then automatically determines confidence thresholds for the intermediate classifiers. As soon as the confidence threshold is met,…
Self-organized model of cascade spreadingphysics.soc-ph
We study simultaneous price drops of real stocks and show that for high drop thresholds they follow a power-law distribution. To reproduce these collective downturns, we propose a minimal self-organized model of cascade spreading based on a probabilistic response of the system elements to stress conditions. This model …
Study applies Gai-Kapadia framework to global equity markets to assess systemic risk and default cascades.
problem Assessing systemic risk and default cascades in global equity markets.
method Used Gai-Kapadia framework, 20-asset network, Monte Carlo simulations, and deterministic propagation analysis.
result High clustering among Brazilian assets leads to localized contagion, while developed markets show resilience.
Modeling supply chain disruptions from climate hazards with adaptive firms.
problem Systemic physical climate risk in supply chains.
method Agent-based model integrating geospatial hazards and firm adaptation.
result Firms' adaptive strategies reduce disruption by 48%.