Bayesian inference reconstructs external potentials in DFT for many-particle systems.
problem Reconstructing external potentials in classical density-functional theory (DFT) for many-particle systems.
method Combines Bayesian inference with classical DFT to probabilistically reconstruct external potentials.
result Accurately infers external potentials and density profiles with uncertainty quantification.
Proposes a method to use external machine-learning predictions in multinomial logistic regression.
problem Improving statistical inference using summary-level external machine-learning predictions.
method Empirical-likelihood framework incorporating moment constraints from external nonparametric machine-learning predictions.
result Fused estimator achieves strict efficiency gain over primary-only estimator under mild conditions.
Paper proposes AI for stock market forecasting using external knowledge.
problem Forecasting stock prices influenced by external factors.
method Learning from historical data and external temporal knowledge graphs modeled as Hawkes processes.
result Dynamic representations effectively rank stocks based on returns.
New estimator improves ATT estimation efficiency with external controls.
problem Reduced efficiency when incorporating external controls into ATT estimation.
method Proposes a novel doubly robust estimator for ATT that maintains higher efficiency than standard approaches.
result Demonstrates improved efficiency of the new estimator compared to standard approaches, even under model misspecification.
Method estimates model performance on external samples from limited statistical characteristics.
problem Limited access to multiple datasets due to privacy and commercial restrictions.
method Search for weights that match external statistics and are closest to uniform, using model performance on weighted internal sample as an estimation.
result Estimated external performance is closer to actual performance than internal performance.
The study assesses external validity by evaluating worst-case treatment effects across subpopulations.
problem Underrepresentation of marginalized groups and limited study populations.
method Develops a semiparametrically efficient estimator for worst-case treatment effects (WTE) and uses cross-fitting to guard against brittle findings.
result The proposed framework guards against invalid findings due to unanticipated population shifts.
A method for logistic regression inference using both internal and external data.
problem Inability to estimate intercept and marginal case proportion in case-control logistic regression.
method Empirical likelihood approach integrating internal and external data.
result Intercept parameter becomes identifiable with external information, and all parameters are estimable consistently.
Study long-term asset liquidation behavior with external flows.
problem Investigate optimal liquidation in presence of external flows.
method Convergence analysis of BSDEs for value function and strategy.
result Long-term liquidation may not occur due to external flows.
Study examines remittances in Nepal, linking external demand and domestic monetary conditions.
problem Understanding the dynamics of remittances in Nepal's economy.
method Constructed composite indices via PCA for external demand and domestic monetary conditions. Used ARDL, cointegration, DOLS, ECM, and machine learning for analysis.
result Strong positive long-run effect of external demand on remittances, significant negative impact of tighter domestic monetary conditions.
Framework for estimating treatment effects using external control data.
problem Improving efficiency in estimating average treatment effects (ATE) in hybrid trials.
method Developed a formal causal inference framework based on exchangeability assumptions and graphical criteria. Proposed estimators and efficient doubly-robust methods.
result Established finite-sample performance and demonstrated application to spinal muscular atrophy trial.
Study identifies negative data externalities affecting model performance on specific groups.
problem Negative data externalities on group performance in machine learning models.
method Characterized and detected data-model inefficiencies, focusing on specific types of externalities.
result Negative data externalities can lower model performance on specific sub-groups, even with larger datasets.
Survey of methods to incorporate external knowledge into stock price prediction.
problem Challenges in predicting stock prices due to market volatility and non-linearity.
method Survey of methods for acquiring and incorporating external knowledge into stock price prediction models.
result Systematic synthesis of previous studies on external knowledge types and their application in stock price prediction.
Estimates non-parametric logistic model using case-control data and external summary info.
problem Imbalanced binary data in case-control studies.
method Two-step estimation procedure with deep neural network for functional approximation.
result Proposed estimator achieves optimal convergence rate in non-parametric regression.
The importance of nodes in a network constantly fluctuates based on changes in the network structure as well as changes in external interest. We propose an evolving teleportation adaptation of the PageRank method to capture how changes in external interest influence the importance of a node. This framework seamlessly g…
UAMM uses external market prices to improve AMM efficiency and reduce liquidity provider risk.
problem Traditional AMMs lack consideration of external markets and risk management.
method UAMM calculates prices by incorporating external market prices and impermanent loss, maintaining constant product curve properties.
result UAMM eliminates arbitrage opportunities when external market prices are efficient, reducing liquidity provider risk.
Model shows PoS networks can be captured by external finance, leading to centralization.
problem Long-term centralization of PoS networks under external finance pressures.
method Heterogeneous macroeconomic model with two actor classes: investors and consumers.
result External finance forces PoS networks to centralize, leading to zero internal staking yield.
In this paper, we provide an integrated systems modeling approach to analyzing global externalities from a microeconomic perspective. Various forms of policy (fiscal, monetary, etc.) have addressed flaws and market failures in models, but few have been able to successfully eliminate modern externalities that remain an …
The paper simplifies complex mechanical systems with external forces.
problem Analyzing symmetric discrete mechanical systems with external forces.
method Lagrangian reduction and reconstruction for principal bundles.
result Evolution of momentum maps and Poisson structures under different conditions.
Estimates personalized policies robust to shifts in target populations.
problem Estimating policies that perform well in diverse target populations.
method Develops methods for estimating robust policies considering shifts in outcomes and characteristics.
result Welfare-maximizing policies are robust to certain shifts in potential outcomes.
This paper addresses external validity bias in causal inference.
problem Estimating causal effects in a target population.
method Synthesis of approaches for generalizability and transportability, including tests for heterogeneity of treatment effects and differences between study and target populations.
result Framework for addressing external validity bias in causal inference.
Online learning algorithms, widely used to power search and content optimization on the web, must balance exploration and exploitation, potentially sacrificing the experience of current users for information that will lead to better decisions in the future. Recently, concerns have been raised about whether the process …
Study finds multifractal cross-correlations between agricultural markets and external uncertainties.
problem Investigating relationships between agricultural spot markets and external uncertainties.
method Multifractal detrending moving-average cross-correlation analysis (MF-X-DMA).
result Maize exhibits intrinsic joint multifractality with all uncertainty proxies.
In this paper, we study the evolution of submannifold moving by mean curvature minus a external force field. We prove that the flow has a long-time smooth solution for all time under almost optimal conditions. Those conditions are that the second fundamental form on the initial submanifolds is not too large, the extern…
The notion of \emph{policy regret} in online learning is a well defined? performance measure for the common scenario of adaptive adversaries, which more traditional quantities such as external regret do not take into account. We revisit the notion of policy regret and first show that there are online learning settings …
Synaptic strength can be seen as probability to propagate impulse, and according to synaptic plasticity, function could exist from propagation activity to synaptic strength. If the function satisfies constraints such as continuity and monotonicity, neural network under external stimulus will always go to fixed point, a…
Study shows stock price interactions increase during crises due to external stimulus.
problem Understanding stock price interactions during economic crises.
method Granger Causality and recurrence analysis on stock price series.
result External stimulus drives stock price interactions during crises.
For many externally driven complex systems neither the noisy driving force, nor the internal dynamics are a priori known. Here we focus on systems for which the time dependent activity of a large number of components can be monitored, allowing us to separate each signal into a component attributed to the external drivi…
QR-learner estimates individual treatment effects using external data.
problem Limited power to detect individual treatment effects in randomized trials.
method Model-agnostic learner that estimates conditional average treatment effects (CATE) using external data.
result QR-learner reduces mean squared error and can recover true CATE.
This paper evaluates and validates cluster results using external and internal evaluation methods.
problem Evaluating and validating the quality of clustering results.
method External evaluation using Homogeneity, Correctness, and V-measure scores; internal evaluation using Silhouette Index and Sum of Square Errors.
result Validation of the number of clusters using dendrogram and statistical frequency distribution.
Optimizes financial decisions with illiquid assets using Kelly criterion.
problem Determining optimal betting strategies in games with external capital constraints.
method Dynamic programming and WKB approximation for multi-round games; Kelly criterion for single-round games.
result Rational players adjust their risk-taking based on the proportion of their capital locked away.
We study the problem of learning graphical models with latent variables. We give the first algorithm for learning locally consistent (ferromagnetic or antiferromagnetic) Restricted Boltzmann Machines (or RBMs) with {\em arbitrary} external fields. Our algorithm has optimal dependence on dimension in the sample complexi…
HERMES model predicts nonstationary fashion trends using social media data.
problem Forecasting nonstationary fashion time series for optimal inventory decisions.
method Hybrid model combining parametric models, seasonal components, and recurrent neural networks with external signals.
result State-of-the-art results on fashion dataset and M4 competition time series.
This paper offers a framework for FX dealers to decide between internalizing and externalizing their market making to balance risk control and costs.
problem FX dealers face risk from flow uncertainty and need to decide on internalization vs. externalization strategies.
method Develops an optimal control framework that balances pricing and hedging strategies.
result Provides insights into the trade-off between risk control and transaction costs in market making.
Our work extends Coase's theorem to settings with uncertainty, showing how to maximize social welfare through property rights and learning.
problem Theoretical models of externality often assume perfect knowledge, limiting practical solutions.
method We extend Coase's theorem to a two-player bandit setting with uncertainty, designing a learning policy to maximize social welfare.
result We show that property rights and learning can recover Coase's theorem in settings with uncertainty.
Study equilibrium consumption habits in a large population using mean field games.
problem Equilibrium consumption under external habit formation in a large population.
method Formulated and solved mean field games for linear and multiplicative habit formation preferences, constructed approximate Nash equilibria for large n-player games.
result Characterized mean field equilibrium strategies and derived financial implications.
Episodic memory is a psychology term which refers to the ability to recall specific events from the past. We suggest one advantage of this particular type of memory is the ability to easily assign credit to a specific state when remembered information is found to be useful. Inspired by this idea, and the increasing pop…
Predicting bankruptcy using financial data and news sentiment.
problem Predicting company bankruptcy to mitigate its impact.
method Combining financial data with news sentiment analysis.
result A framework for predicting company bankruptcy.
Study uses multi-agent reinforcement learning to control self-assembly with high-resolution external control.
problem Designing effective external control protocols for self-assembly with high-resolution control.
method Investigated a multi-agent reinforcement learning approach, comparing fully decentralized and partially decentralized strategies.
result Partially decentralized approach outperforms fully decentralized in controlling self-assembly towards target structures.
In many platforms, user arrivals exhibit a self-reinforcing behavior: future user arrivals are likely to have preferences similar to users who were satisfied in the past. In other words, arrivals exhibit positive externalities. We study multiarmed bandit (MAB) problems with positive externalities. We show that the self…
We focus on the influence of external sources of information upon financial markets. In particular, we develop a stochastic agent-based market model characterized by a certain herding behavior as well as allowing traders to be influenced by an external dynamic signal of information. This signal can be interpreted as a …
In this article we give an explicit description of the representation matrix of a Heisenberg type action constructed by Blanchet, Habegger, Masbaum and Vogel. We give the matrix in terms of a ribbon graph and its admissible colorings. We show that components of the representation matrix satisfies the {\it external edge…
New image restoration method using localized patches and external databases.
problem Image restoration challenges.
method Localized structured prediction and non-linear multi-task learning for optimizing a penalized energy function.
result Strong statistical guarantees and practical effectiveness demonstrated on various image restoration problems.
The study analyzes Bitcoin market volatility using GARCH models and external information.
problem Modeling time-varying volatility in Bitcoin market.
method Combines GARCH models with a mixture of distribution hypothesis using external information.
result The simplest GARCH(1,1) model performs best in predicting volatility with external signal.
Optimal reinsurance strategy analyzed for dynamic risk model with self- and externally-excited jumps.
problem Optimal reinsurance in a dynamic contagion model with self-exciting and externally-exciting risks.
method Two methodologies: classical HJB approach and BSDE approach, focusing on Markovian setting.
result Comparison of self-exciting and externally-exciting risks highlights heightened risk from self-exciting component.
Study improves predictive models for ICU data across hospitals.
problem Degradation of predictive model performance in new hospitals.
method Anchor regression and anchor boosting for domain generalization.
result Anchor regularization enhances out-of-distribution performance.
New algorithms improve privacy-preserving data release using external predictions.
problem Privacy-preserving data release with improved utility using external information.
method Learning-augmented algorithms for multiple quantile release.
result Error guarantees scale with prediction quality, almost recovering state-of-the-art guarantees.
Study improves vehicle motion prediction by incorporating traffic density.
problem Lack of contextual knowledge in predicting driving behavior.
method Categorize and define external conditions, evaluate motion prediction approach.
result Traffic density significantly improves motion prediction accuracy.
In this article we determine the structure of a twisted first cohomology group of the first homology of a trivalent graph with a coefficient associated with the quantum Clebsch-Gordan condition. As an application we give a characterization of a combinatorial property, the external edge condition, which is defined by th…