Proposes PQ, a more precise Bayesian quantifier for prevalence estimation.
problem Uncertainty quantification in prevalence estimation.
method Bayesian quantification methods, focusing on precision and coverage.
result PQ provides more precise and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification.
The paper proves prevalent existence and partially determines moduli space of area-minimizing surfaces with fractal singular sets.
problem Existence and moduli space of area-minimizing surfaces with fractal singular sets.
method Proof of prevalent existence, determination of moduli space, refinement of strata.
result Sharp results on moduli space and refinement of strata, showing fractal singularities do not completely dissolve under generic perturbations.
The paper discusses thresholds and bounds for accuracy in binary classification systems.
problem The accuracy of binary classification systems and its dependence on prevalence.
method Analyzing the precision-prevalence curve and negative predictive value-prevalence curve to find thresholds and bounds.
result Thresholds (φe and φn) bound various accuracy metrics (Fβ, F1, FM, MCC) and the ratio of maximum accuracy to prevalence. Measures policy-violating content prevalence with ML-assisted sampling and LLM labeling.
problem Accurate measurement of content violations that are often rare and costly to label.
method Design-based measurement system using ML-assisted probability sampling and LLM labeling.
result Produces unbiased prevalence estimates with confidence intervals and dashboard drilldowns.
Paper explores how unsupervised learning can be understood through linear algebra concepts.
problem Understanding unsupervised learning through linear algebra concepts.
method Introducing the concept of linearly independent populations and using them to solve for prevalence values.
result Unsupervised learning can be realized as a generalization of supervised learning.
Point estimation of class prevalences in the presence of data set shift has been a popular research topic for more than two decades. Less attention has been paid to the construction of confidence and prediction intervals for estimates of class prevalences. One little considered question is whether or not it is necessar…
Bayesian method corrects bias in imbalanced datasets.
problem Prevalence bias in machine learning datasets.
method Bayesian risk minimization framework, bias-corrected loss function.
result Corrected loss function improves model performance.
This study connects prevalence and machine learning for diagnostic testing.
problem Uncertainty quantification in machine learning for diagnostic tests.
method Developed a numerical homotopy algorithm to estimate classification boundaries and quantify uncertainty.
result The proposed method stabilizes uncertainty quantification in machine learning for diagnostic tests.
The estimation of class prevalence, i.e., the fraction of a population that belongs to a certain class, is a very useful tool in data analytics and learning, and finds applications in many domains such as sentiment analysis, epidemiology, etc. For example, in sentiment analysis, the objective is often not to estimate w…
Study finds AUC is most consistent across different prevalence in binary classification.
problem Consistency of model evaluation metrics across varying prevalence in binary classification.
method Analysis of 156 data scenarios with 18 metrics, 5 models, and a random guess model.
result AUC has the smallest variance in evaluating individual models and ranking of models.
Paper speeds up topological signal identification and cycle matching.
problem Efficiently identifying and matching topological signals across datasets.
method Cohomological approach to persistent homology computation.
result Significantly faster performance on large-scale datasets.
Bayesian methods improve group testing for identifying infected patients.
problem Identifying infected patients from group testing results with false positives.
method Bayesian inference and belief propagation algorithm, combined with expectation-maximization method.
result True-positive rate improved by considering credible intervals.
HistNetQ improves quantification tasks by optimizing loss functions and eliminating label requirements.
problem Quantification of class prevalence in bags of examples.
method Permutation-invariant Histograms and deep neural networks.
result HistNetQ outperforms other quantification methods and optimizes custom loss functions.
This article addresses persistent tangles. These are tangles whose presence in a knot diagram forces that diagram to be knotted. We provide new methods for constructing persistent tangles. Our techniques rely mainly on the existence of non-trivial colorings for the tangles in question. Our main result in this article i…
Proposes a method to improve rare event prediction in healthcare.
problem Rare event classification in healthcare with low prevalence labels.
method Variational disentanglement approach to semi-parametric learning.
result Outperforms existing alternatives in mortality prediction on COVID-19 cohort.
Analyzes securitization impacts on monetary and fiscal policies.
problem Impact of securitization on monetary and fiscal policies.
method Develops optimal conditions, identifies constraints, introduces new decision models.
result Identifies constraints and interactions of securitization with capital-reserve requirements.
Geometry-aware KDE model improves multiclass quantification.
problem Accurately estimating class prevalence for label shift adaptation.
method Log-ratio representations and Aitchison geometry for compositional data, shrinkage regularization.
result Competitive with state-of-the-art quantifiers, often improving over standard KDE-based baselines.
Develops RES metrics for stable rare-event forecasting evaluation.
problem Challenges in evaluating forecasts of rare events.
method Rare-event-stable (RES) metrics designed to maintain stable thresholds under extreme rarity.
result RES metrics maintain stable thresholds, consistent model rankings, and near-complete prevalence invariance.
New method adapts to structural shifts in graph data for better label prevalence estimation.
problem Structural shifts in graph data affect label prevalence estimation.
method Importance sampling variant of KDEy quantification approach.
result Adapts to structural shifts and outperforms standard approaches.
Estimates disease prevalence using non-ignorable missing data in health surveys.
problem Estimating disease prevalence in non-representative samples with non-ignorable missing data.
method Connects auxiliary proxy variable framework to label shift setting, uses high-dimensional covariates without generative models.
result Fails to account for non-ignorable missingness can lead to significant misestimations.
New conformal prediction methods for long-tailed classification problems.
problem Rare classes are systematically omitted in existing conformal prediction methods.
method Introduced a new conformal score function and a new interpolation procedure.
result Smoothly trade off set size and class-conditional coverage.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) coordinates a labor-intensive process to measure the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) among children in the United States. Random forests methods have shown promise in speeding up this process, but they lag behind human classification accuracy by about 5%…
New method uses momentum to converge in DC optimization with small batches.
problem Lack of convergence properties for stochastic difference-of-convex optimization with small batch sizes.
method Introduces momentum to enable convergence under standard assumptions for any batch size.
result Proves convergence of the algorithm under smoothness and bounded variance assumptions.
Reconstruction error is a prevalent score used to identify anomalous samples when data are modeled by generative models, such as (variational) auto-encoders or generative adversarial networks. This score relies on the assumption that normal samples are located on a manifold and all anomalous samples are located outside…
Fidel-TS creates a new benchmark for time series forecasting models.
problem Lack of high-quality benchmarks for time series forecasting models.
method Formalized high-fidelity benchmark principles, including data sourcing integrity, leak-free design, and structural clarity. Created Fidel-TS, a new large-scale benchmark.
result Demonstrated the limitations of prior benchmarks and potential discrepancies in model evaluation.
CDSSL improves representation quality by integrating linear and nonlinear dependencies.
problem Scarcity of labeled data and neglect of nonlinear dependencies in SSL.
method CDSSL combines linear correlations and nonlinear dependencies using HSIC in RKHS.
result CDSSL enhances representation quality on diverse benchmarks.
Novel unsupervised scheme for highly imbalanced and overlapping datasets.
problem Highly imbalanced and overlapping classes in medical datasets.
method Unsupervised domain adaptation scheme based on Quantification.
result High quality results for Quantification and Domain Adaptation.
New method targets vaccines for new variants using Thompson sampling.
problem Deciding how to prioritize vaccines for new variants with delayed feedback.
method Partial likelihood Thompson sampling, updating beliefs with partial likelihood.
result Method effectively prioritizes vaccines based on real-world data.
New model maps malaria prevalence across Kenya's changing administrative boundaries.
problem Mapping disease prevalence with changing administrative boundaries.
method Combines deep learning and MCMC with aggVAE for disease mapping.
result Solves the change-of-support problem in disease surveillance.
Investors in Bitcoin exhibit the disposition effect, selling winners and holding losers.
problem The disposition effect in cryptoassets, specifically Bitcoin.
method Using transaction data from cryptoasset exchanges, the study investigated Bitcoin investors' behavior.
result Bitcoin investors exhibit the disposition effect, with intensity varying over time.
New method uses Transformers for flu forecasting.
problem Forecasting influenza-like illness trends.
method Transformer-based machine learning models with self-attention.
result Forecasting results are competitive with state-of-the-art methods.
Develops a model for RNA-seq data clustering.
problem Challenges in clustering RNA-seq count data with variable selection.
method Sparse negative binomial mixture model with lasso or fused lasso regularization.
result Superior performance in clustering accuracy, feature selection, and biological interpretation.
Several applications of Reinforcement Learning suffer from instability due to high variance. This is especially prevalent in high dimensional domains. Regularization is a commonly used technique in machine learning to reduce variance, at the cost of introducing some bias. Most existing regularization techniques focus o…
Novel framework detects CKD in diabetic patients using sparse EHR representations.
problem Early detection of CKD in diabetic patients.
method Sparse longitudinal representations of EHR data.
result Proposed model achieves higher predictive performance than baselines.
Plasmodium falciparum malaria still poses one of the greatest threats to human life with over 200 million cases globally leading to half-million deaths annually. Of these, 90% of cases and of the mortality occurs in sub-Saharan Africa, mostly among children. Although malaria prediction systems are central to the 2016-2…
Computer Vision and machine learning methods were previously used to reveal screen presence of genders in TV and movies. In this work, using head pose, gender detection, and skin color estimation techniques, we demonstrate that the gender disparity in TV in a South Asian country such as Bangladesh exhibits unique chara…
Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we address the problem of estimating risk contributions when the total risk is measur…
Proposes a deep neural network for event intensity estimation.
problem Modeling irregular event sequences with historical dependencies.
method Non-parametric deep neural network with multi-channel RNN and fake event epochs.
result Outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on model fitting tasks.
New framework explains normalizing flows' power and limitations.
problem Understanding the expressive power and limitations of normalizing flows.
method Theoretical framework for well-conditioned coupling-based normalizing flows and volume-preserving flows.
result RealNVP is distributionally universal, but volume-preserving flows are not.
Recent advances in computing power and the potential to make more realistic assumptions due to increased flexibility have led to the increased prevalence of simulation models in economics. While models of this class, and particularly agent-based models, are able to replicate a number of empirically-observed stylised fa…
Time series of graphs are increasingly prevalent in modern data and pose unique challenges to visual exploration and pattern extraction. This paper describes the development and application of matrix factorizations for exploration and time-varying community detection in time-evolving graph sequences. The matrix factori…
Improves SSL with doubly robust estimation of unlabeled class distribution.
problem Limited labeled data and long-tailed class distributions in unlabeled data.
method Explicitly estimate unlabeled class distribution using doubly robust estimator.
result Improves performance of SSL methods on unlabeled data.
Cluster analysis is a fundamental tool for pattern discovery of complex heterogeneous data. Prevalent clustering methods mainly focus on vector or matrix-variate data and are not applicable to general-order tensors, which arise frequently in modern scientific and business applications. Moreover, there is a gap between …
We consider the problem of demixing a sequence of source signals from the sum of noisy bilinear measurements. It is a generalized mathematical model for blind demixing with blind deconvolution, which is prevalent across the areas of dictionary learning, image processing, and communications. However, state-of- the-art c…
Network science reveals corruption risk in EU procurement markets.
problem Identifying corruption risk in EU procurement markets.
method Analyzing a large dataset of public procurement contracts using network science.
result Corruption risk is clustered and varies by country, not just by market core or periphery.
We propose a discrete surface theory in R3 that unites the most prevalent versions of discrete special parametrizations. This theory encapsulates a large class of discrete surfaces given by a Lax representation and, in particular, the one-parameter associated families of constant curvature surfaces. The theo…
Even though active learning forms an important pillar of machine learning, deep learning tools are not prevalent within it. Deep learning poses several difficulties when used in an active learning setting. First, active learning (AL) methods generally rely on being able to learn and update models from small amounts of …
The quantification problem consists of determining the prevalence of a given label in a target population. However, one often has access to the labels in a sample from the training population but not in the target population. A common assumption in this situation is that of prior probability shift, that is, once the la…