Improving software quality through effective organizational learning.
problem Lack of reliable quantification methods for software evolution.
method Leveraging application lifecycle management data to identify and address managerial practices.
result Effective learning from past processes improves software quality indirectly.
High-frequency trading models fail due to overfitting and survivor bias.
problem Failure of hybrid DRL-EC trading systems in high-frequency environments.
method Deployed a population of 500 agents in a high-frequency cryptocurrency environment, analyzing failure modes through multi-disciplinary lens.
result Increasing model complexity without information asymmetry exacerbates systemic fragility.
Study analyzes neural network models to understand generalization performance.
problem Understanding good generalization in neural networks.
method Analyzed a corpus of models from a public contest, breaking ALPHAHAT into scale and shape metrics.
result Identified a Simpson's paradox in metric performance across different model depths and regularization hyperparameters.
On December 16th, 2011, Zynga, the well-known social game developing company went public. This event followed other recent IPOs in the world of social networking companies, such as Groupon or Linkedin among others. With a valuation close to 7 billion USD at the time when it went public, Zynga became one of the biggest …
Study reveals the 2020 U.S. stock crash was endogenous, not caused by COVID.
problem Understanding the cause of the 2020 U.S. stock market crash.
method Applied log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) methodology to analyze four major U.S. stock market indexes.
result The 2020 U.S. stock market crash was endogenous, stemming from systemic instability, not COVID.
Develops a bialgebra theory for post-Lie algebras using geometric interpretations and bilinear forms.
problem Characterizing and understanding post-Lie algebras and their associated structures.
method Utilizes Manin triples and generalized Hessian Lie groups to define and characterize post-Lie algebras with nondegenerate symmetric invariant bilinear forms.
result Establishes a bialgebra theory for post-Lie algebras via the Manin triple approach, including new algebraic structures like pp-post-Lie algebras.
Post-groupoids help solve Yang-Baxter equation using quivers.
problem Solving the Yang-Baxter equation using algebraic structures.
method Introducing post-groupoids and showing their connection to quivers.
result Post-groupoids provide solutions to the Yang-Baxter equation.
Study evaluates post-processing methods for improving solar power forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of probabilistic solar energy forecasts through model chain approaches.
method Systematically evaluates different post-processing strategies for ensemble weather forecasts and direct solar power forecasting.
result Post-processing significantly improves solar power generation forecasts, especially when applied to power predictions.
Geometric deformations preserve post-Lie algebra structure in regularity structures.
problem Deriving geometric deformations of post-Lie algebras.
method Extending geometrical notions of torsion and curvature, deriving compatibility conditions.
result Derives a pre-Lie structure for regularity structures, isomorphic to a post-Lie algebra.
Post-processing corrects bias in ML systems without retraining.
problem Correcting bias in ML systems that are already in use.
method Proposes general post-processing algorithms for individual fairness based on graph Laplacian regularization.
result Empirically, post-processing algorithms correct individual biases in large-scale NLP models while preserving accuracy.
We study post-Lie algebra structures on pairs of Lie algebras (g,n), and prove existence results for the case that one of the Lie algebras is semisimple. For semisimple g and solvable n we show that there exist no post-Lie algebra structures on (g,n). For semisimple n and certain solvable g we construct canonical post-…
Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
problem Post-hoc transforms can reverse model performance trends, especially in noisy settings.
method Empirical study and analysis of post-hoc transforms like temperature scaling, ensembling, and SWA.
result Post-hoc reversal can prevent double descent and mitigate mismatches between test loss and test error.
We introduce post-Lie algebra structures on pairs of Lie algebras $(\Lg,\Ln)$ defined on a fixed vector space V. Special cases are LR-structures and pre-Lie algebra structures on Lie algebras. We show that post-Lie algebra structures naturally arise in the study of NIL-affine actions on nilpotent Lie groups. We obtai…
While statistics and machine learning offers numerous methods for ensuring generalization, these methods often fail in the presence of adaptivity---the common practice in which the choice of analysis depends on previous interactions with the same dataset. A recent line of work has introduced powerful, general purpose a…
Image post-processing is used in clinical-grade ultrasound scanners to improve image quality (e.g., reduce speckle noise and enhance contrast). These post-processing techniques vary across manufacturers and are generally kept proprietary, which presents a challenge for researchers looking to match current clinical-grad…
New algorithm detects changes in Markov kernels with unknown post-change kernel.
problem Detecting changes in Markov kernels with unknown post-change kernel.
method Developed a new change detection algorithm assuming uniform ergodicity.
result Derived upper and lower bounds on mean delay and time between false alarms.
Post-hoc calibration improves uncertainty under domain shift.
problem Improving uncertainty calibration under domain shift.
method Apply perturbations to validation set before post-hoc calibration.
result Perturbation step results in better calibration under domain shift.
Post-Lie algebra structure found on non-flat manifolds with curvature and torsion.
problem Understanding vector fields and endomorphisms on manifolds with curvature and torsion.
method Analyzing the post-Lie algebra structure of vector fields and endomorphisms for non-flat connections.
result A universal Lie algebra is constructed for the post-Lie algebra of vector fields and endomorphisms.
Framework evaluates post-hoc interpretability methods in time-series classification.
problem Lack of suitable post-hoc interpretability methods for time-series classification.
method Proposes a framework with quantitative metrics to assess interpretability methods.
result Addresses several drawbacks of existing methods, including dependence on human judgement and data distribution shift.
This paper studies how social media posts, especially by executives, affect stock prices.
problem Predicting stock market movements using social media data.
method Integrated sentiment analysis of Twitter and Reddit posts with historical stock data using time series models and deep learning.
result Improvements in stock price prediction when social media data, especially executive posts, are included.
Many users in online social networks are constantly trying to gain attention from their followers by broadcasting posts to them. These broadcasters are likely to gain greater attention if their posts can remain visible for a longer period of time among their followers' most recent feeds. Then when to post? In this pape…
Paper improves Lasso for S&P500 index tracking with post-selection inference.
problem Index tracking for S&P500 with many applications.
method Used Lasso for dimension reduction and post-selection inference.
result Lasso method for S&P500 index tracking shows high performance.
Algorithm ensures demographic parity in regression without sensitive attribute data.
problem Performing regression with demographic parity constraints.
method Post-processing algorithm using accurate estimates and sensitive attribute predictor.
result Generates predictions meeting demographic parity constraint.
New method improves regression estimates, reducing bias.
problem Omitted variable bias in high-dimensional linear regression.
method Post-Double-Autometrics, an alternative to Post-Double-Lasso.
result Post-Double-Autometrics outperforms Post-Double-Lasso.
Post-detection analysis identifies responsible coordinates for multivariate change-points.
problem Identifying which coordinates in multivariate time series change after a detected change-point.
method Two-sample testing procedures with nonparametric tests for Type I error control.
result Strong performance of proposed post hoc statistical procedures.
Mathematical study shows post-hoc explanations are better than attention weights alone.
problem Understanding the internal behavior of attention-based models.
method Mathematical analysis of a simple attention-based architecture.
result Post-hoc explanations provide more useful insights than attention weights alone.
Post-calibration improves the accuracy of causal effect estimation.
problem Improperly calibrated propensity scores lead to inaccurate causal effect estimation.
method Performed a simulation study to assess the impact of post-calibration on causal effect estimation.
result Post-calibration reduces the error in estimating the average treatment effect, especially for expressive uncalibrated statistical estimators.
Post-quantum cryptography needed for blockchain security.
problem Quantum computers threaten traditional blockchain cryptography.
method Review of theoretical cryptography and quantum information theory.
result Post-quantum cryptography is essential for blockchain security.
CalArena benchmarks post-hoc calibration methods across various tasks.
problem Inconsistent evaluations of post-hoc calibration methods.
method Large-scale benchmark with 2000 experiments, covering diverse models and settings.
result Smooth calibration functions outperform binning-based approaches.
Risk-controlled post-processing optimizes decision policies under risk constraints.
problem Optimizing decision policies with risk constraints for better outcomes.
method Developed a post-processing algorithm that selects a threshold based on fitted fallback policy and score, leveraging tools from algorithmic stability and stochastic processes.
result The post-processed policy achieves precise expected risk control under exchangeability and meets or nearly meets risk budgets while preserving more agreement with the baseline.
This paper tackles post-trade allocation inefficiencies and presents a uniform return allocation method.
problem Return divergence among accounts after trade allocation.
method Systematic treatment of trade allocation risk, presenting a uniform return allocation method.
result Uniform allocation of returns irrespective of the number of accounts and trade sizes.
Analyzes Indian chemical industry post-Covid.
problem Global uncertainty impacts chemical industry performance.
method Fundamental analysis of key players and trends.
result Various geopolitical and macroeconomic trends shape industry performance.
Proves transitivity of a specific class of quadratic polynomials.
problem Transitivity of pure Hurwitz classes of post-critically finite quadratic polynomials.
method Uses mapping classes of the sphere with finitely many marked points.
result Establishes transitivity for pure Hurwitz classes of post-critically finite quadratic polynomials.
Meta-Cal improves post-hoc calibration of neural networks.
problem Improving the accuracy of uncalibrated neural network predictions.
method Meta-Cal uses a base calibrator and a ranking model with constraints to provide high-probability bounds.
result Meta-Cal significantly outperforms existing methods in post-hoc multi-class classification calibration.
Bayesian framework predicts post-disruption travel times in metro networks.
problem Uncertainty in post-disruption travel times in metro networks.
method Bayesian spatiotemporal modeling framework capturing train interactions and non-Gaussian distributional characteristics.
result The proposed models consistently outperform baseline specifications in point prediction and uncertainty quantification.
Word vectors are at the core of many natural language processing tasks. Recently, there has been interest in post-processing word vectors to enrich their semantic information. In this paper, we introduce a novel word vector post-processing technique based on matrix conceptors (Jaeger2014), a family of regularized ident…
This paper offers a distribution-free method for post-detection changepoint localization.
problem Locating the exact time of a change in distribution after a sequential detection procedure.
method A distribution-free framework using conformal test martingales for sequential change detection and post-detection inference.
result Valid post-detection coverage guarantees and non-asymptotic bounds on confidence set size.
The study introduces a high-dimensional tail index model for viral post analysis.
problem Empirical observation of power-law distributions in viral posts.
method High-dimensional tail index regression model, regularized estimator, debiasing for inference.
result Consistency and asymptotic normality of debiased estimator.
Study post-hoc Learning to Defer using density-ratio losses.
problem Optimizing decision-making between models and experts.
method Density-ratio losses for post-hoc L2D scorers, derived from class-probability estimation.
result The approach recovers known results and introduces new connections to expert comparison and anomaly detection.
Post-process Bayesian inference speeds up posterior approximation.
problem Leveraging pre-existing model evaluations for quick posterior approximation.
method Variational Sparse Bayesian Quadrature (VSBQ) using sparse Gaussian process (GP) surrogate model.
result VSBQ builds high-quality posterior approximations from existing optimization traces.
Study predicts US stock market will continue to fall post-COVID-19.
problem Analyzing the recovery trend of the US stock market post-COVID-19.
method Used Deep Learning, Neuro Network, and Time-series analysis on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones Industrial Average data.
result LSTM model predicts US stock market will continue to fall post-COVID-19.
A popular methodology for building binary decision-making classifiers in the presence of imperfect information is to first construct a non-binary "scoring" classifier that is calibrated over all protected groups, and then to post-process this score to obtain a binary decision. We study the feasibility of achieving vari…
New algorithm reduces bias in trained models, near-optimal performance proven.
problem Reduction of bias in trained machine learning models.
method Scalable post-processing algorithm for debiasing trained models, including deep neural networks (DNNs).
result Proven to be near-optimal by bounding its excess Bayes risk.
Post-hoc calibration of neural networks using g-Layers proves theoretical justification.
problem Ensuring the confidence of neural network decisions in real-world applications.
method Proves theoretical justification for post-hoc calibration methods by adding g-Layers and minimizing NLL.
result Proves that adding g-Layers and minimizing NLL can lead to a calibrated network.
End-to-end method improves neural network calibration during training.
problem Improving neural network calibration for regression problems.
method Quantile Recalibration Training integrates post-hoc calibration into model training.
result Improved predictive accuracy and calibration in a large-scale experiment.
Deep neural networks improve ensemble weather forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy and efficiency of ensemble weather forecasts.
method Mixed model combining subset of trajectories with deep neural networks for post-processing.
result Achieved over 14% relative improvement in ensemble forecast skill.
A graph neural network improves multivariate post-processing of ensemble forecasts.
problem Systematic biases in ensemble forecasts and loss of dependencies across forecast dimensions.
method A composite-Loss Graph Neural Network (dualGNN) trained with a composite loss function combining ES and VS.
result The dualGNN outperforms traditional methods in multivariate verification metrics and captures spatial relationships.
Enhances scenario approach for certifying design properties post-design.
problem Certifying additional useful properties in designs not considered during the design phase.
method Two-level framework of appropriateness: baseline and post-design. Distribution-free upper bounds on risk derived.
result Distribution-free upper bounds on the risk of failing to meet post-design appropriateness.