The paper calibrates a model to market quotes efficiently and arbitrage-free.
problem Calibrating a model to market option quotes efficiently and without arbitrage.
method Piecewise-linear local variance function for efficient calibration.
result Arbitrage-free interpolation of class C2 achieved under one millisecond. Paper explores MM strategies that can refuse to quote or provide single-sided quotes.
problem Overcoming risks in market making due to changing market conditions.
method Adversarial reinforcement learning with new MM agent designs.
result Refusal to quote or providing single-sided quotes can improve MM performance.
A model-free framework extracts risk-neutral densities from short-dated options.
problem Arbitrage and bid-ask spread issues in short-dated options.
method Develops ARIES for filtering static arbitrage and SEDEx for density extraction.
result Robust density extraction across various market conditions and volatility smiles construction.
Non-spanning identification of scheduled event risk in option pricing.
problem Separating continuous surface from scheduled jump in option pricing.
method Modeling FOMC decisions, CPI releases, and NFP reports as deterministic-time jumps in risk-neutral option pricing.
result Improves held-out event-spanning pricing with Gaussian and two-component mixture jumps.
The study compares on-chain option prices with a model and finds significant differences.
problem Measuring and comparing on-chain option prices with a model-based benchmark.
method Used a two-regime MS-AR-(GJR)-GARCH model to estimate volatility and GLS to compare prices.
result On-chain option prices are significantly higher than model-based benchmarks, especially for call options.
Study uses SABR model to create implied volatilities from sparse quotes.
problem Creating accurate implied volatility surfaces from limited market data.
method Multitask Gaussian process with SABR model embeddings and hierarchical regularization.
result Model produces more accurate volatilities than single-task methods.
We present a stochastic-local volatility model for derivative contracts on commodity futures able to describe forward-curve and smile dynamics with a fast calibration to liquid market quotes. A parsimonious parametrization is introduced to deal with the limited number of options quoted in the market. Cleared commodity …
New FX option interpolations impact implied volatilities.
problem Different interpolations of FX option quotes lead to varying implied volatilities.
method Analysis of various exact interpolations of broker quotes.
result Different interpolations result in different implied volatilities.
VolNP learns IVS from sparse quotes via meta-learning and SABR priors.
problem Reconstructing implied volatility surfaces from sparse option quotes.
method Meta-learning Neural Process with SABR-induced priors.
result VolNP outperforms SABR, SSVI, and Gaussian process on SPX options.
Modeling option market making with hedging-induced price impact.
problem Tackles the challenge of market making in options markets with price impact.
method Models option order flow using Cox processes and studies the dynamics of inventory and price under hedging-induced impact.
result Establishes the well-posedness of the mixed control problem involving quoting and hedging.
New method calibrates crypto option prices more robustly.
problem Large bid-ask spreads and missing quotes in crypto markets.
method Designs a novel calibration procedure for crypto options.
result Calibration is more robust and accurate than standard methods.
We price weather-contingent options by use of Monte Carlo simulations. After calibrating the models to fit quoted prices, we analyze bid-ask spreads in terms of correlations across markets. Results are presented for a double-trigger Weather vs. Natural Gas call option.
The method constructs arbitrage-free option surfaces from noisy quotes using Chebyshev bases and a fog post-fit layer.
problem Constructing arbitrage-free option price surfaces from noisy bid-ask quotes.
method Chebyshev tensor bases, linear sampling, no-arbitrage operators, quadratic objective, OSQP solvers, fog post-fit layer, Hamiltonian energy.
result High inside-spread coverage (98-99%) and low no-arbitrage violations (below 1%) in stable periods, controlled leakage in stressed periods.
We examine the Foreign Exchange (FX) spot price spreads with and without Last Look on the transaction. We assume that brokers are risk-neutral and they quote spreads so that losses to latency arbitrageurs (LAs) are recovered from other traders in the FX market. These losses are reduced if the broker can reject, ex-post…
Deep learning models reconstruct volatility surfaces from noisy data under no-arbitrage constraints.
problem Reconstructing implied volatility surfaces from sparse and noisy option quotes.
method Compared multiple neural architectures including Transformers, U-Nets, and variational autoencoders.
result Transformer and U-Net architectures achieve strong reconstruction accuracy, especially under sparse observation regimes.
The paper models natural gas futures prices and volatility, using Monte Carlo and reinforcement learning.
problem Hedging and selecting delivery strategies in natural gas markets.
method Dynamical model for futures prices, least-square Monte Carlo simulation, reinforcement learning.
result Calibrated futures price quotes and implied volatility smiles for different delivery periods.
A new method calculates implied volatilities without using option prices.
problem Calculating implied volatilities without option prices.
method Conic finance approach to uniquely strip volatilities from bid and ask quotes.
result Allows joint calculation of implied liquidity from bid and ask quotes.
Study optimal semi-static hedging for illiquid markets using dynamic cash and static quoted derivatives.
problem Optimal pricing of exotic derivatives in illiquid markets with bid-ask spreads.
method Use Galerkin method and integration quadratures to approximate hedging problem as convex optimization, solved by interior point method.
result Semi-static hedging improves pricing and reduces transaction costs compared to static or dynamic trading alone.
We develop a model for indifference pricing in derivatives markets where price quotes have bid-ask spreads and finite quantities. The model quantifies the dependence of the prices and hedging portfolios on an investor's beliefs, risk preferences and financial position as well as on the price quotes. Computational techn…
Monotonicity of normalized implied-volatility coordinates under no-arbitrage
problem Monotonicity of normalized implied-volatility coordinates under no-arbitrage
method Elementary discrete no-arbitrage proof
result Monotonicity principle extended to Bachelier implied volatility
New framework allows selective removal of stale data in option calibration.
problem Inability to remove old data from calibrated option pricing models without full retraining.
method Introduces operator-theoretic Gauss-Newton framework for selective forgetting.
result Provides stability guarantees and perturbation bounds for selective data removal.
We construct the term structure of the (forward-looking, US market) equity risk premium from SPX option chains. The method is "model-light". Risk-neutral probability densities are estimated by fitting N-component Gaussian mixture models to option quotes, where N is a small integer (here 4 or 5). These densities are…
A new option pricing model uses a time-varying Hurst exponent for more accurate financial predictions.
problem Inaccurate modeling of financial time series due to constant memory parameter limitations.
method Modeling price fluctuations with multifractional Brownian motion and deriving option pricing formula.
result Empirical performance shows the multifractional model fits market quotes better than standard models.
We construct a statistical indicator for the detection of short-term asset price bubbles based on the information content of bid and ask market quotes for plain vanilla put and call options. Our construction makes use of the martingale theory of asset price bubbles and the fact that such scenarios where the price for a…
A dealer manages quotes and rejection rules to control slippage risk in FX markets.
problem Managing inventory risk and latency risk in OTC FX market making.
method Dynamic programming and adiabatic-quadratic approximation to optimize quotes and rejection rules.
result Developed a method to optimize quotes and rejection rules for managing slippage risk.
We show that the results of ArXiv:1305.6008 on the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and the super-hedging theorem can be extended to the case in which the options available for static hedging (\emph{hedging options}) are quoted with bid-ask spreads. In this set-up, we need to work with the notion of \emph{robust no…
This paper is devoted to the application of an l1 -minimisation technique to construct an arbitrage-free call-option surface. We propose a nononparametric approach to obtaining model-free call option surfaces that are perfectly consistent with market quotes and free of static arbitrage. The approach is inspired from…
Study shows physical drift affects put-call parity enforcement, not just option payoffs.
problem Inconsistency between quoted put-call parity and actual market behavior.
method Examined SPX and RUT index options, used drift-preserving GBM term to improve fit.
result Physical drift enters the enforcement of risk-neutral parity, not just option payoffs.
We derive a forward equation for arbitrage-free barrier option prices, in terms of Markovian projections of the stochastic volatility process, in continuous semi-martingale models. This provides a Dupire-type formula for the coefficient derived by Brunick and Shreve for their mimicking diffusion and can be interpreted …
In this paper, we employ the Heston stochastic volatility model to describe the stock's volatility and apply the model to derive and analyze the optimal trading strategies for dealers in a security market. We also extend our study to option market making for options written on stocks in the presence of stochastic volat…
Study reveals a hidden cost in derivatives markets through option-implied discount factors.
problem The hidden cost in derivatives markets, not visible in price space.
method Minute-level NBBO data on options, reduced-form specification linking carry gap to implementation risk, trading frictions, and financial conditions.
result An annualized carry gap exists, linked to implementation risk and financial conditions.
The paper explores local-correlation models for pricing complex financial contracts.
problem Calibrating synthetic quanto forward contracts and composite options.
method Design on-line calibration procedures for local and stochastic volatility models.
result Calibration performance of local-correlation models compared to simpler approximations.
A new method constructs smooth, arbitrage-free option surfaces efficiently.
problem Creating smooth, arbitrage-free option surfaces efficiently.
method Non-parametric approach using strictly positive 'discrete local volatility' variables.
result First construction of smooth, strictly arbitrage-free option price surfaces.
Framework improves risk neutral density estimation in illiquid markets.
problem Challenges in estimating Risk Neutral Density in illiquid markets.
method Introduces Deep Log-Sum-Exp Neural Network leveraging Deep and Transfer learning.
result Framework recovers Risk Neutral Density with few option quotes in severe illiquidity.
We propose a new framework for modeling stochastic local volatility, with potential applications to modeling derivatives on interest rates, commodities, credit, equity, FX etc., as well as hybrid derivatives. Our model extends the linearity-generating unspanned volatility term structure model by Carr et al. (2011) by a…
Deep learning models price options using volatility surfaces.
problem Pricing exotic options with high accuracy and efficiency.
method Variational autoencoder for volatility surface compression, multilayer perceptron for option pricing.
result Trained model achieves high accuracy across American and Asian options.
In this paper we introduce the concept of standardized call function and we obtain a new approximating formula for the Black and Scholes call function through the hyperbolic tangent. This formula is useful for pricing and risk management as well as for extracting the implied volatility from quoted options. The latter i…
Market illiquidity, feedback effects, presence of transaction costs, risk from unprotected portfolio and other nonlinear effects in PDE based option pricing models can be described by solutions to the generalized Black-Scholes parabolic equation with a diffusion term nonlinearly depending on the option price itself. Di…
Study evaluates hedging strategies for S&P500 index options.
problem Improving returns and risk management in index option portfolios.
method Compared Black-Scholes-Merton and Variance-Gamma models for hedging strategies.
result Systematic option-writing strategies can yield superior returns compared to buy-and-hold benchmarks.
New algorithm calibrates local volatility from option prices using deep neural networks.
problem Calibrating local volatility from market option prices with reduced interpolation and reprice errors.
method Deep self-consistent learning using neural networks to approximate both option prices and local volatility.
result Improved performance in terms of reduced interpolation and reprice errors compared to existing methods.
In this paper, we propose a new method for estimating the conditional risk-neutral density (RND) directly from a cross-section of put option bid-ask quotes. More precisely, we propose to view the RND recovery problem as an inverse problem. We first show that it is possible to define restricted put and call operators th…
The paper extends a variance gamma model to quadratic functions, reducing arbitrage and computational costs.
problem Creating an arbitrage-free interpolation for option pricing models.
method Generalizing the local variance gamma model to a piecewise quadratic local variance function.
result The quadratic model results in an arbitrage-free interpolation of class C3, reducing knots and computational cost.
New framework improves option pricing models by addressing volatility dynamics.
problem Challenges in standard option pricing models, especially in deriving implied volatility.
method Developed a new framework called Implied Remaining Variance (IRV), identifying minimal conditions for absence of arbitrage.
result Reformulated results of Schweizer and Wissel (2008b) and independently derived El Amrani, Jacquier and Martini (2021) results within IRV framework.
Quantum computing speeds up option pricing for multiple assets.
problem High-dimensional integration bottleneck in option pricing.
method Calibrated marginal distributions, Gaussian copula, QAMC with QAE.
result QAMC reduces integration queries by 10-100 times for similar precision.
Unified kernel for prediction markets reduces belief variance forecast error.
problem Lack of standardized tools for quoting and hedging belief risk in prediction markets.
method Logit jump-diffusion model with risk-neutral drift, calibration pipeline, and coherent derivative layer.
result Model reduces forecast error compared to diffusion-only and probability-space baselines.
In this paper we study dynamic pricing mechanisms of financial derivatives. A typical model of such pricing mechanism is the so-called g--expectation defined by solutions of a backward stochastic differential equation with g as its generating function. Black-Scholes pricing model is a special linear case of this pricin…
The paper shows how to calculate risk-neutral default probabilities from bid and ask CDS quotes.
problem Calculating risk-neutral default probabilities from market quotes.
method Using conic finance framework and Poisson process to formulate and solve the calibration problem.
result A unique solution for risk-neutral default probabilities and implied liquidity.
Axiomatizes the bid-ask market maker's quoting rule
problem Axiomatizing the quoting rule of a market maker
method Eight natural axioms and six environmental assumptions
result A unique three-parameter family emerges