This paper uses multivariate probability models to assess financial system risks.
problem Assessing systemic risk in financial systems.
method Computes multivariate conditional probability distributions for elliptical distributions, focusing on Student-t and Normal models.
result Proposes measures of stress impact and systemic risk.
We propose a random walk model of asset returns where the parameters depend on market stress. Stress is measured by, e.g., the value of an implied volatility index. We show that model parameters including standard deviations and correlations can be estimated robustly and that all distributions are approximately normal.…
The instability of historical risk factor correlations renders their use in estimating portfolio risk extremely questionable. In periods of market stress correlations of risk factors have a tendency to quickly go well beyond estimated values. For instance, in times of severe market stress, one would expect with certain…
In this work we perform a study of various unsupervised methods to identify mental stress in firefighter trainees based on unlabeled heart rate variability data. We collect RR interval time series data from nearly 100 firefighter trainees that participated in a drill. We explore and compare three methods in order to pe…
Neural networks predict flow and elastic stresses in viscoelastic turbulence.
problem Predicting flow and elastic stresses in viscoelastic turbulent flows using limited experimental data.
method Convolutional neural networks trained on wall-normal velocity and pressure data.
result Neural networks accurately predict flow and elastic stresses, especially during low-drag events.
New method makes quality metrics scale-invariant for high-dimensional data.
problem Scale sensitivity in quality metrics affects the accuracy of data projections.
method Analytical and empirical investigation of stress and KL divergence; introduction of a scale-invariant technique.
result The proposed technique accurately captures expected behavior and makes metrics scale-invariant.
A hybrid model combines diffusion and neural operator methods for stress prediction in hyperelastic materials.
problem Challenges in predicting stress fields in hyperelastic materials with complex microstructures.
method A hybrid surrogate framework combining a conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (cDDPM) and a modified DeepONet.
result The hybrid model consistently outperforms traditional methods by one to two orders of magnitude.
DBNs improve ES and SES estimation for market risk, but tail behavior remains challenging.
problem Optimizing ES and SES estimation for market risk in banking.
method Extended DBNs for 10-day ES and SES estimation using S&P 500 index.
result DBNs perform comparably to historical simulation but struggle with tail behavior.
Neural network predicts turbulence from wall shear stress.
problem Predicting wall-bounded turbulence from wall quantities.
method Fully-convolutional neural network trained on DNS data.
result Improved prediction of turbulence fields and statistics.
Study uses neural networks to predict wall quantities in turbulent flows.
problem Predicting wall quantities in turbulent open channel flows.
method Training convolutional neural networks (FCN) and a proposed R-Net architecture to predict wall-shear-stress and wall pressure.
result R-Net architecture performs better and predicts wall quantities with around 10% error.
An important task in structural design is to quantify the structural performance of an object under the external forces it may experience during its use. The problem proves to be computationally very challenging as the external forces' contact locations and magnitudes may exhibit significant variations. We present an e…
If the probability of default parameters (PDs) fed as input into a credit portfolio model are estimated as through-the-cycle (TTC) PDs stressed market conditions have little impact on the results of the capital calculations conducted with the model. At first glance, this is totally different if the PDs are estimated as…
New energy functional and fields for Yang-Mills theory, proving monotonicity and vanishing theorems.
problem Developing new mathematical tools for Yang-Mills theory.
method Introducing normalized exponential Yang-Mills energy functional, deriving monotonicity formula and vanishing theorem.
result Monotonicity and vanishing theorems for exponential Yang-Mills fields.
Proposes a reverse stress testing framework for dynamic models.
problem Finding plausible models under adverse stresses.
method Compound Poisson process, Kullback-Leibler divergence, optimization problem.
result Intensity and severity of process depend on time and state.
Study reviews machine learning techniques for stress monitoring.
problem Improving accuracy of stress monitoring devices.
method Reviewed machine learning techniques for various stress indicators.
result Choosing the right classifier depends on multiple factors.
The study identifies and analyzes different market regimes in equity markets using advanced signal processing techniques.
problem Understanding and quantifying the dynamics of different market regimes in equity markets.
method Data-driven Hilbert--Huang Transform for regime identification, Holo--Hilbert Spectral Analysis for profiling, and Variable-Length Markov Chains for return dynamics modeling.
result Developed markets normalize more effectively as stress subsides, while developing markets retain residual tail dependence and downside persistence.
Method generates plausible financial stress scenarios using large deviations.
problem Misleading risk management by overlooking or overemphasizing implausible scenarios.
method Exploits large-deviations principle to concentrate risk factors near most likely stress configurations.
result Can generate informative stress scenarios even with limited historical data.
This research proposes methods to model and assess liability liquidity risk in asset management.
problem Lack of standardized models for liability liquidity risk in asset management.
method Statistical models, zero-inflated models, aggregate and individual-based approaches, and factor models.
result Developed mathematical and statistical approaches to estimate and assess redemption shocks.
This note improves correlation stress tests using geodesic distance.
problem Improving financial risk management through better covariance stress tests.
method Proposes a new geometrically invariant definition of correlation stress tests.
result Demonstrates a submanifold approach to stress testing covariance matrices.
Improved algorithm for multidimensional scaling reduces stress.
problem Stress in multidimensional scaling.
method Proposed modifications of the smacof algorithm.
result Convergent majorization algorithm for Kruskal's stress formula two.
The MSPI predicts market stress with machine learning.
problem Estimating the probability of high market stress.
method L1-regularized logistic regression on stock fragility signals.
result MSPI tracks major stress episodes and improves accuracy.
AXI assesses bank funding costs transparently, improving loan pricing and reducing financial risk.
problem Lack of credit-sensitive funding benchmarks after LIBOR transition.
method AXI aggregates unsecured funding transactions across maturities, producing a daily credit spread.
result AXI correlates with financial conditions and market stress, reducing funding risk and offering spread discounts.
We define a second-order neural network stochastic gradient training algorithm whose block-diagonal structure effectively amounts to normalizing the unit activations. Investigating why this algorithm lacks in robustness then reveals two interesting insights. The first insight suggests a new way to scale the stepsizes, …
Develops a method for reverse stress testing in multivariate scenarios.
problem Reconstructing a multivariate stress scenario from a single exogenous shock.
method Maximizing conditional density under three distributional assumptions.
result Simulated scenarios are economically coherent and reproduce risk-reward asymmetry.
Deep learning predicts stress levels from mouse hippocampus activity.
problem Stress level in mice under different environments.
method Deep learning combined with neuron decoding.
result Deep learning model accurately predicts stress levels.
Stress research is a rapidly emerging area in thefield of electroencephalography (EEG) based signal processing.The use of EEG as an objective measure for cost effective andpersonalized stress management becomes important in particularsituations such as the non-availability of mental health facilities.In this study, lon…
Environmental stresses such as drought and heat can cause substantial yield loss in agriculture. As such, hybrid crops that are tolerant to drought and heat stress would produce more consistent yields compared to the hybrids that are not tolerant to these stresses. In the 2019 Syngenta Crop Challenge, Syngenta released…
The dominant automatic lexical stress detection method is to split the utterance into syllable segments using phoneme sequence and their time-aligned boundaries. Then we extract features from syllable to use classification method to classify the lexical stress. However, we can't get very accurate time boundaries of eac…
Develops a method for stress testing correlations of financial portfolios.
problem Stress testing correlations in financial asset portfolios.
method Parametric representation of correlations, Bayesian variable selection, joint distribution of stress scenarios.
result Inference of worst-case correlation scenarios using stress tests.
Credit risk stress tests can misrepresent default probabilities due to inconsistent parameterization.
problem Misleading default probability projections in credit risk stress tests.
method Analysis of credit risk stress testing models and their parameterization.
result Current portfolios tend to align with through-the-cycle portfolios, leading to spurious default rate projections.
We derive the stress-energy tensor for polyharmonic maps between Riemannian manifolds. Moreover, we employ the stress-energy tensor to characterize polyharmonic maps where we pay special attention to triharmonic maps.
Machine learning improves financial stress testing in Indian markets.
problem Conventional stress testing limitations in Indian financial markets.
method Dimensionality reduction, latent factor modeling, Variational Autoencoders, Monte Carlo simulation.
result Improved flexibility, robustness, and realism in financial stress testing.
Sparse regression models CMs from oscillatory shear data efficiently.
problem Discovering parsimonious constitutive models from oscillatory shear experiments.
method Sparse regression with tensor basis functions, l1 regularization, and greedy two-stage algorithm.
result Inferred CMs extrapolate well beyond training data and flow conditions.
Paper proposes MAST to identify stress conditions in forecasting models.
problem Improving reliability and transparency of univariate forecasting models under stress.
method Meta-learning and data augmentation approach to predict stress conditions.
result MAST identifies conditions leading to large errors in forecasting models.
Paper defines p-biharmonic submanifolds and stress tensors in space forms.
problem Characterizing p-biharmonic submanifolds in space forms.
method Provided necessary and sufficient conditions for p-biharmonic submanifolds and properties of stress p-bienergy tensors.
result New properties of stress p-bienergy tensors for p-biharmonic submanifolds.
Using Hilbert's criterion, we consider the stress-energy tensor associated to the bienergy functional. We show that it derives from a variational problem on metrics and exhibit the peculiarity of dimension four. First, we use this tensor to construct new examples of biharmonic maps, then classify maps with vanishing or…
A new method distills material models from noisy data without prior selection.
problem Uncertainty in material model discovery from noisy data.
method Augmenting data with Gaussian process, approximating parameter distribution with normalizing flow, distilling by matching stress-deformation functions, performing sensitivity analysis.
result Sparse and interpretable material models discovered from experimental data.
Reverse sensitivity analysis for risk models under various stresses.
problem Understanding model changes under output stress.
method Deriving the closest stressed distribution and model parameters.
result Numerically efficient method for calculating stressed model.
Two new methods score stress test scenarios for risk managers.
problem Comparing and evaluating stress test scenarios for risk managers.
method Inspired by Archer-Mouy-Selmi, two methodologies for scoring stress test scenarios.
result New methods can compare and evaluate stress test scenarios.
Various psychological factors affect how individuals express emotions. Yet, when we collect data intended for use in building emotion recognition systems, we often try to do so by creating paradigms that are designed just with a focus on eliciting emotional behavior. Algorithms trained with these types of data are unli…
Research shows ESG signals lower exposure to market fragility during stress periods.
problem Market fragility often occurs together, and ESG is associated with reduced exposure.
method Monthly data on S&P 500 constituents from 2014 to 2025, analyzing downside returns, volatility, illiquidity, and cofragility states.
result A one-standard-deviation increase in ESG lowers the probability of severe cofragility by 0.92 percentage points during stress periods.
Bayesian Monte-Carlo method assesses uncertainty in shear stress entropy models.
problem Uncertainty in evaluating shear stress entropy models remains an open question.
method Bayesian Monte-Carlo (BMC) uncertainty method to evaluate four entropy models.
result FOCB statistic index determines certainty of entropy models in shear stress estimation.
Develops a robust hedging valuation adjustment measure for dynamic hedging under liquidity-demand stress.
problem Dynamic hedging under liquidity-demand stress
method Define robust HVA as the worst-case expected loss over a relative-entropy neighborhood of the loss distribution generated by simulated rebalancing and maturity-unwind trades.
result Distinguishes fixed-radius convention from fixed benchmark-stress convention and shows wider no-trade bands lower rebalancing costs but raise hedge-error risk.
With the growing popularity of wearable devices, the ability to utilize physiological data collected from these devices to predict the wearer's mental state such as mood and stress suggests great clinical applications, yet such a task is extremely challenging. In this paper, we present a general platform for personaliz…
Study predicts shear stress in compound channels using data mining and machine learning.
problem Predicting shear stress distribution in symmetric compound channels.
method Conducted experiments to measure shear stress. Used data mining and machine learning models (RF, M5P, RC, KStar, AR) to predict.
result Random Forest (RF) model showed highest accuracy with R2=0.9.
Paper develops a robust HVA measure for dynamic hedging under liquidity stress.
problem Valuation of dynamic hedging under liquidity stress.
method Defines robust HVA as worst-case expected loss over a relative-entropy neighborhood of loss distributions for no-trade bands.
result Wider no-trade bands lower rebalancing costs but increase hedge-error risk.
This work extends elasticity theory to curved spaces, solving stress potentials.
problem Addressing elasticity in curved spaces with boundary.
method Using double forms and bilaplacian operator regularity, solving biharmonic equations.
result Stress potentials can be used in non-Euclidean geometries.
Paper improves SVaR estimation for stress testing under macro scenarios using a hybrid GPR-HS framework.
problem Numerical instability in traditional SVaR estimation under extreme shocks.
method Extends GPR-HS framework to forward-looking stress scenarios with SACS for stable covariance.
result Stable SVaR ranges from -2.1020% to -2.2231%, preserving coherence property.