Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a sco…
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
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48 results for “management sciences”
The Prescriptive Canvas improves business outcomes by directly prescribing actions based on predictions.
problem Sub-optimal performance in business projects due to a two-step approach of prediction and decision-making.
method The Prescriptive Canvas methodology for framing and communicating actions directly based on predictions.
result Improves framing and communication across stakeholders for successful business impact.
Complexity science offers new insights into macroeconomics and finance.
problem Insufficient understanding of economic and financial phenomena.
method Adopting complexity science to better understand complex systems.
result Complex system characteristics can benefit financial analysts, regulators, and policymakers.
This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to avoid this. The report describes and evaluates risk assessment and management for th…
Today, the prominence of data science within organizations has given rise to teams of data science workers collaborating on extracting insights from data, as opposed to individual data scientists working alone. However, we still lack a deep understanding of how data science workers collaborate in practice. In this work…
Enhances insurance loss models using InsurTech data and machine learning.
problem Traditional insurance loss models lack predictive accuracy due to limited data sources.
method Combining proprietary claims data with InsurTech data and applying machine learning techniques.
result Improved predictive accuracy of the loss model through machine learning.
Portfolio management is the art and science in fiance that concerns continuous reallocation of funds and assets across financial instruments to meet the desired returns to risk profile. Deep reinforcement learning (RL) has gained increasing interest in portfolio management, where RL agents are trained base on financial…
This paper uses information theory to improve risk modeling in big data.
problem Insufficient application of information theory in actuarial science.
method Explores information theory to uncover performance limits of insurance big data systems.
result Guidance for risk modeling and actuarial pricing systems.
Estimates price sensitivity from transaction data using a novel odds ratio method.
problem Estimate price sensitivity from transaction-level data with partially observed treatment assignments.
method Recursive partitioning procedure with adversarial imputation for robust estimation.
result Validated on synthetic data and applied to three case studies, demonstrating heterogeneity in treatment effects.
Homeowners around the world elevate houses to manage flood risks. Deciding how high to elevate a house poses a nontrivial decision problem. The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) recommends elevating existing houses to the Base Flood Elevation (the elevation of the 100-yr flood) plus a freeboard. This reco…
Continued reliance on human operators for managing data centers is a major impediment for them from ever reaching extreme dimensions. Large computer systems in general, and data centers in particular, will ultimately be managed using predictive computational and executable models obtained through data-science tools, an…
We can overcome uncertainty with uncertainty. Using randomness in our choices and in what we control, and hence in the decision making process, could potentially offset the uncertainty inherent in the environment and yield better outcomes. The example we develop in greater detail is the news-vendor inventory management…
We will look at the entire cycle of the investment process relating to all aspects of, formulating an investment hypothesis, constructing a portfolio based on that, executing the trades to implement it, on-going risk management, periodically measuring the performance of the portfolio, and rebalancing the portfolio eith…
Proposes a graph neural network for traffic forecasting in WANs.
problem Traffic forecasting challenges in WANs due to dynamic and large data volumes.
method Dynamic diffusion convolutional recurrent neural networks for multistep traffic forecasting.
result Significant improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to classical methods.
EcoCast predicts biodiversity risks using satellite data and citizen science records.
problem Unprecedented shifts in species distributions due to climate change and habitat loss.
method Spatio-temporal model using sequence-based transformers and continual learning.
result Promising improvements in forecasting bird species distributions compared to Random Forest.
Though machine learning has achieved notable success in modeling sequential and spatial data for speech recognition and in computer vision, applications to remote sensing and climate science problems are seldom considered. In this paper, we demonstrate techniques from unsupervised learning of future video frame predict…
AI classifies tourist events for better service.
problem Classifying tourist events efficiently across diverse sources.
method CRISP-DM, supervised machine learning, NLP.
result Automatic classification tool for consistent event catalogs.
New DR method uses Gromov-Wasserstein distance for high-dimensional data.
problem Analyzing relationships between high-dimensional objects.
method Optimal transportation theory and Gromov-Wasserstein distance.
result Robust and efficient solution for complex high-dimensional datasets.
LightGBM outperforms other models in predicting pH values in Georgia, USA.
problem Accurate water quality prediction for effective resource management and pollution mitigation.
method Five distinct predictive models (linear regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, MLP neural network) were assessed for pH value forecasting in Georgia, USA.
result LightGBM achieved the highest average precision in predicting pH values.
Deep learning complements OR/MS for decision-making under uncertainty.
problem Sequential decision-making in uncertain environments.
method Integration of deep learning and OR/MS frameworks.
result Deep learning enhances adaptability and scalability in decision systems.
The study uses ML and AI to forecast pension fund mortality, outperforming traditional methods.
problem Incorporating longevity risk into pension fund financial assessments.
method Employed actuarial learning with ML/AI techniques (regression trees, random forest, boosting, XGBoost, CatBoost, neural networks) on actuarial data.
result ML/AI algorithms outperform the Lee-Carter model in mortality forecasting for pension funds.
Tool to estimate research impact for low-resource institutions.
problem Costly databases limit access for third-world institutions.
method Machine Learning for data analysis and panel regression.
result Approximation of SCOPUS Impact Factor for free.
A recommendation framework helps users choose healthcare interventions.
problem Choice overload in online healthcare communities.
method Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) approach with innovative model components.
result Our recommendation design outperforms state-of-the-art systems.
We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation …
Operations is a key challenge in the domain of machine learning pipeline deployments involving monitoring and management of real-time prediction quality. Typically, metrics like accuracy, RMSE etc., are used to track the performance of models in deployment. However, these metrics cannot be calculated in production due …
The paper tackles budget allocation for multiple campaigns using a novel combinatorial bandit approach.
problem Maximizing cumulative returns with limited budgets across various ad lines.
method Formulated as a multi-task combinatorial bandit problem, integrates Bayesian hierarchical models, and uses Thompson sampling.
result Demonstrates robustness and adaptability in maximizing overall cumulative returns.
Paper introduces ML for rare-event prediction in patent quality estimation.
problem Lack of predictive modeling in econ, management, tech forecasting.
method Introduces ML approach for optimizing predictive performance.
result Demonstrates synergy between ML and inferential statistics.
Learning Embedded Representation of the Stock Correlation Matrix using Graph Machine Learningq-fin.CP
Algorithm learns stock correlation matrix embedding using graph machine learning.
problem Understanding complex relationships among stocks based on their correlation matrix.
method Proposes a graph machine learning approach called Node2Vec to compress the correlation network into an embedding.
result The algorithm can learn an embedding from the correlation network of S&P 500 stock data.
A Creepy Worldphysics.soc-ph
Using the mechanics of creep in material sciences as a metaphor, we present a general framework to understand the evolution of financial, economic and social systems and to construct scenarios for the future. In a nutshell, highly non-linear out-of-equilibrium systems subjected to exogenous perturbations tend to exhibi…
We discuss deep reinforcement learning in an overview style. We draw a big picture, filled with details. We discuss six core elements, six important mechanisms, and twelve applications, focusing on contemporary work, and in historical contexts. We start with background of artificial intelligence, machine learning, deep…
Learning excursion sets of vector-valued Gaussian random fields for autonomous ocean samplingstat.AP
The paper develops sampling methods for ocean phenomena based on temperature and salinity measurements.
problem Improving oceanographic sampling with limited resources.
method Design criterion based on uncertainty in excursions of vector-valued Gaussian random fields.
result Demonstrates effective exploration of ambiguous regions for data-driven sampling.
We show how different approaches to developing marketing strategies depending on the type of environment a firm faces, where environments are distinguished in terms of their systems properties not their context. Particular emphasis is given to turbulent environments in which outcomes are not a priori predictable and ar…
GRETEL unifies GCE evaluation across various settings.
problem Lack of standardized evaluation for Graph Counterfactual Explanations.
method Unified framework for testing GCE methods in diverse settings.
result GRETEL promotes reproducible evaluations of GCE techniques.
Paper uses inverse optimization to measure risk preference from investment portfolios.
problem Measuring subjective risk preference in investment portfolios.
method Inverse optimization on mean-variance framework.
result Quantified risk preference parameters validated with existing measures.
New risk measure and quadrangle improve financial decision-making.
problem Heterogeneous risk assessments among analysts.
method Established analytical characterizations of WGRM and incorporated FRQ into WRQ.
result WGRM and WRQ framework improves risk-adjusted performance and downside resilience.
Bayesian deep learning predicts satellite collisions.
problem Space debris poses planetary risk.
method Bayesian deep learning with LSTM networks.
result Predicts conjunction event evolution with uncertainties.
The paper shows supply chain features improve cyber risk prediction.
problem Predicting cyber risk from supply chain attributes.
method Machine learning, external supply chain features, AUC improvement.
result Supply chain network features improve AUC by 2.3%.
WeldNet reduces complex dynamics to simpler, manageable segments.
problem Complex, high-dimensional time-dependent datasets from physical processes are costly to simulate.
method Windowed Encoders for Learning Dynamics, splitting time domain into windows for nonlinear dimension reduction and propagator training.
result WeldNet captures nonlinear latent structures and dynamics, outperforming existing methods.
Data Science is currently a popular field of science attracting expertise from very diverse backgrounds. Current learning practices need to acknowledge this and adapt to it. This paper summarises some experiences relating to such learning approaches from teaching a postgraduate Data Science module, and draws some learn…
Synthetic data enhances analytics but requires careful volume management.
problem Accuracy of statistical methods on synthetic data vs. raw data.
method Synthetic Data Generation for Analytics framework using tabular diffusion models.
result Error rate decreases with more synthetic data but may stabilize or increase.
ML methods improve planetary science data analysis.
problem Insufficient use of ML in planetary science.
method Ten recommendations for integrating ML in planetary science.
result Expanding planetary science insights from large datasets.
Modeling alignment as resource-limited cognitive processes, researchers derive performance bounds.
problem Systematic deviations in feedback-based alignment of large language models.
method Modeling alignment as a two-stage cascade given , with cognitive and total capacities.
result Capacity-coupled Alignment Performance Interval derived from Fano and PAC-Bayes bounds.
Causal inference from observational data is the goal of many data analyses in the health and social sciences. However, academic statistics has often frowned upon data analyses with a causal objective. The introduction of the term "data science" provides a historic opportunity to redefine data analysis in such a way tha…
Foundation models alter medical data science workflow, challenging veridical data science principles.
problem Foundation models disrupt traditional data science practices in medicine.
method Critically examined the medical foundation model lifecycle and its deviation from veridical data science principles.
result Foundation models challenge veridical data science principles of predictability, computability, and stability.
A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis from Big Data and LLMs Perspectiveq-fin.RM
This paper surveys enterprise financial risk analysis from Big Data and LLMs perspectives.
problem Predicting future financial risk of enterprises.
method Systematic literature review of enterprise financial risk analysis approaches from Big Data and LLMs perspectives.
result Offers a holistic synthesis of research methods and key insights.
Favorit strategy helps farmers mitigate market price fluctuations.
problem Mitigating adverse impact of price fluctuation on farmers.
method Analyzes historical price data to select optimal market timing for crops.
result Developed a strategy to reduce volatility risk for Indian farmers.
Modern techniques simplify complex high-dimensional data.
problem Complex, high-dimensional data.
method Unsupervised dimension reduction techniques.
result Simplified representation of high-dimensional data.
Robust Optimization Approaches for Portfolio Selection: A Computational and Comparative Analysisq-fin.PM
Robust optimization improves portfolio selection by accounting for deep uncertainties.
problem Managing deep uncertainties in future asset returns for successful portfolio selection.
method Robust optimization (RO) models incorporating general assumptions on uncertain risk parameters.
result RO models outperform traditional models in comprehensive empirical assessments.