Neural Diffusion Intensity Models simplify Cox processes inference.
problem Intractable nonparametric estimation and posterior inference of latent stochastic intensity in Cox processes.
method Variational framework using neural SDEs, with theoretical guarantee of ELBO maximization coinciding with maximum likelihood estimation.
result Accurate recovery of latent intensity dynamics and posterior paths with significant speedup.
HYVINT generates hypergraphs with intensity-driven incidence formation and variational learning.
problem Challenges in generating hypergraphs with mechanistic interpretation and limited latent space.
method HYVINT uses intensity-driven incidence formation and a lower-bound variational estimator for latent representations.
result HYVINT achieves strong fidelity and novelty on synthetic and real-world hypergraphs.
IDPGs extend RDPGs with a Poisson process for random latent positions.
problem Modeling randomness in latent positions for graph structure.
method Introduce IDPGs using Poisson point processes on latent Euclidean space.
result Continuous analogues of adjacency matrices link latent structure to observed graphs.
Method uses deep learning to estimate traffic intensity.
problem Estimating stochastic intensity of traffic processes.
method Deep neural networks for nonlinear filtering.
result Deep learning method accurately estimates traffic intensity.
Modeling latent dynamics in high-dimensional event sequences without prior knowledge.
problem Modeling latent dynamics in high-dimensional event sequences with unknown marker relations.
method Adversarial imitation learning framework decomposed into latent structural intensity model, efficient random walk model, and seq2seq discriminator.
result Effective detection of hidden network among markers and decent prediction for future events.
New test for point processes without strong model assumptions.
problem Testing local independence in point processes without strong model assumptions.
method Expansion similar to Volterra expansions to represent marginalized intensities.
result Approximation of true marginalized intensity arbitrarily well.
In classical Hawkes process, the baseline intensity and triggering kernel are assumed to be a constant and parametric function respectively, which limits the model flexibility. To generalize it, we present a fully Bayesian nonparametric model, namely Gaussian process modulated Hawkes process and propose an EM-variation…
Analyzing the underlying structure of multiple time-sequences provides insights into the understanding of social networks and human activities. In this work, we present the \emph{Bayesian nonparametric Poisson process allocation} (BaNPPA), a latent-function model for time-sequences, which automatically infers the numbe…
Develops a method to model multivariate count processes with Cox processes and shot noise intensities.
problem Modeling and estimating dependent count processes using granular data.
method Multivariate Cox process with shot noise intensities, connected via Lévy copulas.
result Allows for over-dispersion, auto-correlation, and realistic features in count processes.
Proposes a new model for complex multivariate event data.
problem Modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics.
method Integrates spatial information into latent state evolution through learned temporal and spatial decay dynamics.
result Successfully recovers sensible temporal and spatial intensity structure in multivariate spatio-temporal point patterns.
New model captures patient-level EHR data efficiently.
problem Irregular EHR code timing and lack of temporal structure.
method Latent factor point process model with Fourier-Eigen embedding.
result Efficiently captures subgroup-specific temporal patterns.
A new model integrates covariates with grade of membership analysis for better latent structure recovery.
problem Improving latent structure recovery in multivariate categorical data analysis.
method Covariate-assisted grade of membership model exploiting shared low-rank simplex geometry.
result Auxiliary covariates can provably improve latent structure recovery, leading to faster convergence rates.
Develops a new method to recover large latent tree models efficiently.
problem Inference of large latent tree structures from terminal node observations.
method Spectral Top-Down Recovery (STDR) using Fiedler vector partitioning.
result Proves statistical consistency and sample complexity for accurate tree recovery.
A new model for point processes without intensity function trade-offs.
problem Inefficiency and trade-offs in existing point process models.
method Point Set Diffusion, a diffusion-based latent variable model.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in point process generation.
Spatio-temporal point process models play a central role in the analysis of spatially distributed systems in several disciplines. Yet, scalable inference remains computa- tionally challenging both due to the high resolution modelling generally required and the analytically intractable likelihood function. Here, we expl…
A new model predicts network events with improved accuracy and interpretability.
problem Predicting and understanding complex dynamic relational data in networks.
method Mutually Exciting Latent Space Hawkes (LSH) model for continuous-time networks.
result The LSH model outperforms existing models in prediction accuracy and interpretability.
MEG models for dynamic networks estimate dependencies and shared latent space relationships.
problem Modeling dynamic networks with shared latent space relationships and dependencies.
method MEG combines mutually exciting point processes and latent space models to estimate node-specific parameters and unobserved edges.
result MEG models can estimate intensities for unobserved edges, useful for anomaly detection in real-world applications.
Study uses GPLFM to create Digital Twin for ferry quay health monitoring.
problem Deterioration of ferry quays due to harsh maritime environments and impacts.
method Gaussian Process Latent Force Model (GPLFM) integrating physics-based model and machine learning.
result GPLFM provides accurate acceleration response estimates, even under simplifying assumptions.
Novel model for predicting event intensities from static and time series data.
problem Predicting event intensities from static and irregularly sampled time series data.
method Neural controlled differential equations and signature-based CoxSig model.
result The CoxSig model provides theoretical learning guarantees and performs well on various datasets.
Electronic health records (EHR) are rich heterogeneous collection of patient health information, whose broad adoption provides great opportunities for systematic health data mining. However, heterogeneous EHR data types and biased ascertainment impose computational challenges. Here, we present mixEHR, an unsupervised g…
In the following short article we adapt a new and popular machine learning model for inference on medical data sets. Our method is based on the Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) framework that we adapt to survival analysis on small data sets with missing values. In our model, the true health status appears as a set of late…
New method identifies physical constants from video data alone.
problem Identifying physical constants from video data.
method Proves level-set slope-coverage condition ensures local affine mapping to true physical state, enabling exact parameter recovery.
result Underdamped systems identifiable from a single video clip, other regimes require three diverse trajectories.
Estimates neuronal connectivity from spike times using flexible Hawkes processes.
problem Learning latent network structure from multivariate point process data.
method Proposes a new nonstationary Hawkes process and uses sparse least squares estimation.
result Establishes non-asymptotic error bounds and selection consistency for estimated parameters.
New model predicts credit spreads using stochastic CIR++ intensities.
problem Lack of continuous stochastic credit spread models and limited term structure models.
method Stochastic CIR++ model for default intensities in risk-neutral space.
result Model produces realistic credit spread term structure curves and consistent diffusion over time.
We generalize the log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) framework to model multiple correlated point data jointly. The observations are treated as realizations of multiple LGCPs, whose log intensities are given by linear combinations of latent functions drawn from Gaussian process priors. The combination coefficients are als…
New method learns latent group structures without clustering, using heat flow dynamics.
problem Learning with latent group sparsity in machine learning problems.
method Heat flow dynamics on network structure to incorporate group structure.
result Effective performance and provable bounds on sample complexity.
We present a new, fully generative model of optical telescope image sets, along with a variational procedure for inference. Each pixel intensity is treated as a Poisson random variable, with a rate parameter dependent on latent properties of stars and galaxies. Key latent properties are themselves random, with scientif…
Efficient inference for nonparametric Hawkes processes using Pólya-Gamma augmentation.
problem Efficient inference for nonparametric Hawkes processes.
method Pólya-Gamma augmentation, EM algorithm, mean-field variational inference.
result The proposed algorithms can recover well the underlying prompting characteristics efficiently.
Bayesian model detects internal bleeding in ICU patients.
problem Late detection of internal bleeding in ICU patients.
method Bayesian regime switching model analyzing vitals and labs.
result Probabilistic assessment of patient's physiological state.
Introduces a new Hawkes model with CARMA(p,q) intensity to better model dependence structures.
problem Modeling dependence structures in time series data with realistic autocorrelation functions.
method Develops a Hawkes process with CARMA(p,q) intensity to capture more complex dependencies.
result The CARMA(p,q)-Hawkes model can reproduce more realistic dependence structures and is stationary and positive.
A model predicts building damage locations in near real-time using intensity-based features.
problem Accurate and timely damage diagnosis of building structures after extreme events.
method Support vector machines and Bayesian optimization for probabilistic hazard intensity determination.
result The model achieves 83.1% accuracy in identifying damage locations in a reinforced concrete moment frame.
New framework models neural systems with random architecture on manifolds.
problem Complex, uncertain systems with non-Gaussian outputs.
method Latent random field on compact manifold generates neural architecture and weights.
result Synthetic neural systems can produce stochastic outputs for deterministic inputs.
Enhances deep kernel learning with stochastic latent variables for better model regularization.
problem Weak model regularization in deep kernel learning, especially on small datasets.
method Introduces DLVKL model with stochastic latent variables, NSDE for expressive posterior, and hybrid prior.
result DLVKL-NSDE outperforms existing deep GPs on large datasets.
We present a scalable approach to performing approximate fully Bayesian inference in generic state space models. The proposed method is an alternative to particle MCMC that provides fully Bayesian inference of both the dynamic latent states and the static parameters of the model. We build up on recent advances in compu…
In this article we review computational aspects of Deep Learning (DL). Deep learning uses network architectures consisting of hierarchical layers of latent variables to construct predictors for high-dimensional input-output models. Training a deep learning architecture is computationally intensive, and efficient linear…
Smoothing graphons improve link prediction in Bayesian SBM without increasing computational complexity.
problem Accurate modeling of exchangeable relational data with flexible and computationally efficient graphons.
method Introducing smoothing procedures to piecewise-constant graphons to create smoothing graphons, which allow continuous intensity values for relations.
result Smoothing graphons improve AUC and precision for link prediction in real-world data sets.
PaGoDA reduces diffusion model training costs by 64x.
problem Diffusion models are computationally expensive during training.
method Three-stage pipeline: downsampled training, distillation, progressive super-resolution.
result PaGoDA achieves state-of-the-art performance with reduced training costs.
Exact simulation method for market impact estimation under various execution strategies.
problem Estimating market impact from observed price trajectories under different execution strategies.
method Conditional simulation of point processes under perturbed intensities.
result Exact, event-driven algorithm for reconstructing counterfactual paths.
LHM integrates expert ODEs with neural ODEs for disease progression prediction.
problem Predicting disease progression under medications using limited data.
method Integrating expert-designed ODEs with machine-learned Neural ODEs.
result LHM consistently outperforms previous methods, especially in small sample regimes.
The latent block model (LBM) is a flexible probabilistic tool to describe interactions between node sets in bipartite networks, but it does not account for interactions of time varying intensity between nodes in unknown classes. In this paper we propose a non stationary temporal extension of the LBM that clusters simul…
FunCLBM clusters time series data for autonomous driving validation.
problem Validation of autonomous driving systems using large amounts of data.
method FunCLBM model for co-clustering high-dimensional time series data.
result FunCLBM provides structured partition and clustering views of datasets.
Quantum theory reinterprets financial pricing by focusing on observable price transitions.
problem Traditional financial models rely on latent variables; this paper proposes a new observable approach.
method Shift operators, spectral calculus, and Lindblad semigroups are used to define observable frequency operators and convolution generators.
result The framework leads to a nonlocal pricing equation that converges to classical Black-Scholes-Merton under small mesh limits.
We present a new, fully generative model for constructing astronomical catalogs from optical telescope image sets. Each pixel intensity is treated as a random variable with parameters that depend on the latent properties of stars and galaxies. These latent properties are themselves modeled as random. We compare two pro…
The abstract explains how word and relation representations capture semantic meaning.
problem Understanding how word and relation representations capture semantic meaning.
method Theoretical justification and extension of geometric relationships between word embeddings and knowledge graph representations.
result The geometric relationships between word embeddings correspond to semantic relations between words and entities in knowledge graphs.
In this paper, we study a continuous time structural asset value model for two correlated firms using a two-dimensional Brownian motion. We consider the situation of incomplete information, where the information set available to the market participants includes the default time of each firm and the periodic asset value…
Difficult image segmentation problems, for instance left atrium MRI, can be addressed by incorporating shape priors to find solutions that are consistent with known objects. Nonetheless, a single multivariate Gaussian is not an adequate model in cases with significant nonlinear shape variation or where the prior distri…
Paper learns latent and hierarchical structures in CDMs from data.
problem Jointly learning latent and hierarchical structures in CDMs from observed data.
method Penalized likelihood approach for selecting attributes and estimating structures; EM and latent structure recovery algorithms.
result Good performance demonstrated by simulation and real data applications.
We develop and test a fast and accurate semi-analytical formula for single-name default swaptions in the context of a shifted square root jump diffusion (SSRJD) default intensity model. The model can be calibrated to the CDS term structure and a few default swaptions, to price and hedge other credit derivatives consist…