State-of-the-art forecasting methods using Recurrent Neural Net- works (RNN) based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) cells have shown exceptional performance targeting short-horizon forecasts, e.g given a set of predictor features, forecast a target value for the next few time steps in the future. However, in many appli…
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48 results for “forecasting horizons”
ElasTST improves time-series forecasting across varying horizons.
problem Robust forecasting across different time horizons in varied industrial sectors.
method Elastic Time-Series Transformer (ElasTST) with non-autoregressive design, rotary position embedding, and multi-scale patching.
result ElasTST provides robust forecasts across varying horizons without retraining.
ForecastGAN: A Decomposition-Based Adversarial Framework for Multi-Horizon Time Series Forecastingcs.LG
ForecastGAN improves multi-horizon time series forecasting by integrating numerical and categorical features.
problem Limited performance of existing approaches in short-term and long-term forecasting.
method Decomposition, model selection, adversarial training.
result ForecastGAN consistently outperforms state-of-the-art transformer models for short-term forecasting.
This study assesses the influence of the forecast horizon on the forecasting performance of several machine learning techniques. We compare the fo recast accuracy of Support Vector Regression (SVR) to Neural Network (NN) models, using a linear model as a benchmark. We focus on international tourism demand to all sevent…
The non-stationarity characteristic of the solar power renders traditional point forecasting methods to be less useful due to large prediction errors. This results in increased uncertainties in the grid operation, thereby negatively affecting the reliability and increased cost of operation. This research paper proposes…
New method produces coherent forecasts for long-range data.
problem Inaccurate and non-coherent forecasts on long-horizon data.
method Probabilistic forecasting with KL-divergence for coherent aggregates.
result Improves forecast performance across base levels and aggregates.
Synergetic Learning of Heterogeneous Temporal Sequences for Multi-Horizon Probabilistic Forecastingcs.LG
Proposes a model for multi-horizon probabilistic forecasting of time series influenced by asynchronous events.
problem Forecasting time series influenced by asynchronous events is challenging.
method Introduces Variational Synergetic Multi-Horizon Network (VSMHN), a deep conditional generative model combining deep point processes and variational recurrent neural networks.
result Produces accurate, sharp, and realistic probabilistic forecasts.
Deep learning models forecast stock market orders over multiple time frames.
problem Forecasting stock market orders over varying time frames.
method Encoder-decoder models with sequence-to-sequence and Attention mechanisms, leveraging Intelligent Processing Units (IPUs) for faster training.
result Multi-horizon forecasting outperforms single-horizon models, especially for long prediction periods.
Study forecasts sub-city real estate prices weekly using radar and news sentiment.
problem Limited availability of reliable real estate price indicators at neighborhood and long horizons.
method Combining satellite radar signals and news sentiment to forecast sub-city real estate prices.
result The multimodal model reduces mean absolute error by 35% at long horizons (26-34 weeks).
DMIDAS improves long-term forecasting accuracy in healthcare and electricity data.
problem Challenging long-term forecasting accuracy and computational complexity.
method Smoothness regularization and mixed data sampling techniques integrated into NBEATS architecture.
result Improves prediction accuracy by 5% on long forecasting horizons (1000 timestamps) compared to state-of-the-art models.
Study compares nine deep learning architectures for multi-horizon financial forecasting.
problem Evaluating the performance of deep learning architectures for multi-horizon financial forecasting.
method Conducted 918 experiments across cryptocurrency, forex, and equity markets using nine architectures.
result ModernTCN achieves the best mean rank (1.333) with a 75 percent first-place rate.
ModelRadar evaluates forecasting models across multiple aspects.
problem Evaluating forecasting models using single scores hides relevant performance variations.
method ModelRadar, a framework for aspect-based evaluation of univariate time series forecasting models.
result NHITS performs best overall but its superiority varies with forecasting conditions.
Machine learning forecasts show bias at long horizons, contrary to standard tests.
problem Forecast efficiency tests misinterpret machine learning performance.
method Theoretical and empirical analysis of regularization and measurement noise.
result Machine learning forecasts exhibit overreaction at longer horizons, not bias.
Forecastability measures predictive information across horizons.
problem How much predictive information is available at each prediction horizon?
method Develops the consequences of mutual information between future observations and information set.
result Forecastability is a profile reflecting process dependence structure, with properties like compression and truncation error.
MQF forecasts multivariate quantiles globally.
problem Forecasting multi-horizon dependencies with error accumulation.
method Multivariate quantile function using input-convex neural networks.
result MQF avoids quantile crossing and captures time dependency.
This review tackles long horizon forecasting in time series analysis using deep learning.
problem Long horizon forecasting in time series analysis.
method Incorporates deep learning techniques such as trend, seasonality, Fourier and wavelet transforms, and various model architectures.
result LHF is an error propagation problem, with models like xLSTM and Triformer showing better performance.
The study forecasts portfolio volatility using cointegrated asset dynamics.
problem Forecasting volatility in portfolios with high accuracy.
method Developed HVR/DVR ratios and used Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to forecast volatility.
result VECM forecasts of portfolio volatility have lower MAPE than covariance-based forecasts.
Random investment strategies outperform sensible ones, even with forecasts.
problem The usefulness of investment strategies based on forecasts is questioned.
method Investigated the performance of sensible and nonsensical investment strategies, including forecasts.
result There is no substantial difference between the performances of ``best'' and ``trivial'' forecasts.
Study uses zero-shot models to forecast mortality rates globally.
problem Forecasting mortality rates without task-specific fine-tuning.
method Two state-of-the-art foundation models (TimesFM and CHRONOS) and traditional/machine learning methods were evaluated.
result CHRONOS outperformed traditional methods for shorter-term forecasts, but TimesFM consistently underperformed.
The paper evaluates various forecasting methods for inflation, finding ML models superior.
problem Forecasting inflation using disaggregated data and machine learning.
method Examines traditional and machine learning models, including random forest, for disaggregated and aggregated inflation forecasts.
result Aggregating disaggregated forecasts performs similarly to survey-based expectations and aggregate models.
Foundation models improve on econometric benchmarks for forecasting volatility, but vary widely across models.
problem Comparing pretrained time series foundation models to econometric benchmarks for volatility forecasting.
method Systematic comparison of nine zero-shot TSFMs against eight econometric specifications on 50 assets across 3 markets and 3 horizons.
result Tiny Time Mixers (TTM) is the only model that consistently beats the Log-HAR benchmark, but performance varies widely across models.
The paper explores dynamic ensembles for multi-step forecasting.
problem Lack of research on dynamic ensembles for multi-step forecasting.
method Extensive experiments with 3568 time series and an ensemble of 30 multi-output models.
result Dynamic ensembles based on arbitrating and windowing perform best.
We propose a framework for general probabilistic multi-step time series regression. Specifically, we exploit the expressiveness and temporal nature of Sequence-to-Sequence Neural Networks (e.g. recurrent and convolutional structures), the nonparametric nature of Quantile Regression and the efficiency of Direct Multi-Ho…
Meta-learning predicts optimal ensemble size and methods for time series forecasting.
problem Finding the best ensemble of time series forecasting methods.
method Two-step approach using meta-learning to predict ensemble size and methods.
result Meta-learning outperformed benchmarks in forecasting errors for all data types and horizons.
Online learning rbfnet improves multi-horizon returns forecasts for financial time series.
problem Nonstationarity and concept drift in financial time series.
method Combines feature representation transfer with sequential optimisation.
result Online learning rbfnet outperforms random-walk and batch learners.
Neural Lévy model improves risk and density forecasting for financial returns.
problem Financial returns exhibit heavy tails, volatility clustering, and jumps.
method Proposes a neural Lévy jump-diffusion framework that learns conditional drift, diffusion, jump intensity, and size distribution.
result Demonstrates improved calibration, sharper tail control, and risk reduction.
New method uses neural networks to forecast spatial-temporal data.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of spatio-temporal data with causal structure.
method MMAF-guided learning with ensemble of stochastic feed-forward neural networks.
result Forecasting remains calibrated across multiple time horizons.
New method uses MMAF-guided learning for spatio-temporal probabilistic forecasts.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of spatio-temporal data with causal structure.
method Generalized Bayesian methodology, MMAF-guided learning, ensemble of stochastic feed-forward neural networks.
result Forecast performance comparable to, and sometimes better than, deep learning architectures.
LLapDiff models irregular multivariate time series without step-by-step integration.
problem Trade-off between discrete and continuous methods for long-horizon forecasting.
method Generative framework that models target as a low-dimensional latent trajectory, guided by modal parameterization and Laplace domain poles.
result Improves long-horizon forecasting over baselines and supports missing-value imputation.
Anticipatory portfolios use richer models to optimize investments.
problem Optimizing investments with richer models than used for calibration.
method Decision-theoretic definition of anticipation, quadratic geometry, and LQG decomposition.
result Correct anticipation creates value, vacuous anticipation has zero value, and misspecified anticipation is harmful.
Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting density forecasts will inevitably be downgraded by model mis-specification. In o…
Combining forecasts of 16 ED causes improves accuracy and stability.
problem Forecasting accuracy and stability for ED admissions is poor due to model uncertainty and limited data.
method High-dimensional forecast combinations of 16 cause-specific ED forecasts using extensive covariates.
result Forecast combinations yield forecast accuracies of 3.81%-23.54% across causes, outperforming individual models in 50% of scenarios.
The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or maintenance planning). For this purpose, many physical models have been employed, and…
For short-term solar irradiance forecasting, the traditional point forecasting methods are rendered less useful due to the non-stationary characteristic of solar power. The amount of operating reserves required to maintain reliable operation of the electric grid rises due to the variability of solar energy. The higher …
This paper proposes an enhanced approach to modeling and forecasting volatility using high frequency data. Using a forecasting model based on Realized GARCH with multiple time-frequency decomposed realized volatility measures, we study the influence of different timescales on volatility forecasts. The decomposition of …
SAGA predicts multi-year earnings with adaptive intervals, improving forecast accuracy.
problem Forecasting long-range nonlinear structure in lifetime earnings.
method Decoder-only transformer for irregular tabular sequences, split conformal calibration.
result Significant improvement in forecast accuracy compared to existing methods.
In order to obtain a reasonable and reliable forecast method for crude oil price volatility, this paper evaluates the forecast performance of single-regime GARCH models (including the standard linear GARCH model and the nonlinear GJR-GARCH and EGARCH models) and the two-regime Markov Regime Switching GARCH (MRS-GARCH) …
A training-free conformal interval is a mandatory baseline for probabilistic time-series forecasting.
problem Comparing probabilistic forecasters against weak or omitted baselines.
method A simple conformal interval with no parameters and no training.
result The ConformalNaive interval decisively beats several baselines.
Computational models that forecast the progression of Alzheimer's disease at the patient level are extremely useful tools for identifying high risk cohorts for early intervention and treatment planning. The state-of-the-art work in this area proposes models that forecast by using latent representations extracted from t…
Probabilistic NDVI forecasting from sparse satellite data.
problem Challenges in short-term NDVI forecasting due to sparse and irregular satellite data.
method Probabilistic forecasting framework using historical NDVI and meteorological observations, with temporal-distance weighted quantile loss and extreme-weather feature engineering.
result The proposed method outperforms baselines on pointwise and probabilistic evaluation metrics.
Time series forecasting models fail to consistently select the best model across different datasets.
problem Inconsistency in model selection for time series forecasting across varying data regimes.
method Characterized time series using descriptors like trend strength, seasonality, noise level, and temporal dependence. Developed a rule-based selection mechanism to map data regimes to candidate models.
result Rule-based model selection achieves low accuracy, with correct model identification occurring in only a small fraction of cases.
Synapse arbitrates TSFMs to improve time series forecasting performance.
problem TSFMs vary in performance across different forecasting tasks, domains, and horizons.
method Synapse dynamically assigns and adjusts predictive weights based on TSFM performance.
result Synapse consistently outperforms other ensembling techniques and individual TSFMs.
In this expository paper we illustrate the generality of game theoretic probability protocols of Shafer and Vovk (2001) in finite-horizon discrete games. By restricting ourselves to finite-horizon discrete games, we can explicitly describe how discrete distributions with finite support and the discrete pricing formulas…
WindDragon forecasts wind power with deep learning.
problem Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is crucial for grid operation.
method Automated Deep Learning combined with Numerical Weather Predictions.
result Automated Deep Learning improves wind power forecasting accuracy.
Firms miscount their customers who stop buying without saying goodbye.
problem Counting non-contractual customers accurately.
method Estimating repeat purchase probabilities and extrapolating to infinite time.
result The count of alive customers is only partially identified, with a wide range of estimates.
Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior information on how they interact with the target. While several deep learning model…
For a given time horizon DT, this article explores the relationship between the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between t and t+DT), the implied volatility (corresponding to at-the-money option with expiry at t+DT), and several forecasts for the volatility build from multi-scales linear ARCH process…
TK-GCN forecasts spatiotemporal dynamics using Koopman-enhanced graph convolutional networks.
problem Forecasting complex spatiotemporal dynamics over irregular domains.
method Two-stage framework: Koopman-enhanced Graph Convolutional Network (K-GCN) for spatial encoding and Transformer for temporal modeling.
result TK-GCN outperforms state-of-the-art methods in spatiotemporal cardiac dynamics forecasting.