arXiv research

The paper calculates prices for multi-step barrier options under the Black-Scholes model.

Efficiently optimizes expensive functions with multi-step lookahead using one-shot optimization.

Paper presents a copula-based method to efficiently generate correlated sample paths from multi-step time series models.

The paper explores dynamic ensembles for multi-step forecasting.

Reinforcement learning has attracted great attention recently, especially policy gradient algorithms, which have been demonstrated on challenging decision making and control tasks. In this paper, we propose an active multi-step TD algorithm with adaptive stepsizes to learn actor and critic. Specifically, our model cons…

Paper adapts ACI for online multi-step time-series forecasting with coverage guarantees.

Stratify unifies and improves multi-step forecasting strategies.

Multi-step passenger demand forecasting is a crucial task in on-demand vehicle sharing services. However, predicting passenger demand over multiple time horizons is generally challenging due to the nonlinear and dynamic spatial-temporal dependencies. In this work, we propose to model multi-step citywide passenger deman…

When environmental interaction is expensive, model-based reinforcement learning offers a solution by planning ahead and avoiding costly mistakes. Model-based agents typically learn a single-step transition model. In this paper, we propose a multi-step model that predicts the outcome of an action sequence with variable …

The paper introduces a multi-step loss function to improve model-based reinforcement learning.

Looped Transformers learn to implement multi-step gradient descent for in-context learning.

Multi-step temporal difference (TD) learning is an important approach in reinforcement learning, as it unifies one-step TD learning with Monte Carlo methods in a way where intermediate algorithms can outperform either extreme. They address a bias-variance trade off between reliance on current estimates, which could be …

Paper proposes a dual-level approach for multi-step forecasting of dynamical systems.

For the efficient compensation of fiber nonlinearity, one of the guiding principles appears to be: fewer steps are better and more efficient. We challenge this assumption and show that carefully designed multi-step approaches can lead to better performance-complexity trade-offs than their few-step counterparts.

Model-based reinforcement learning is an appealing framework for creating agents that learn, plan, and act in sequential environments. Model-based algorithms typically involve learning a transition model that takes a state and an action and outputs the next state---a one-step model. This model can be composed with itse…

Multi-step ahead forecasting is still an open challenge in time series forecasting. Several approaches that deal with this complex problem have been proposed in the literature but an extensive comparison on a large number of tasks is still missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by reviewing existing strategies for m…

In its simplest form, the traffic flow prediction problem is restricted to predicting a single time-step into the future. Multi-step traffic flow prediction extends this set-up to the case where predicting multiple time-steps into the future based on some finite history is of interest. This problem is significantly mor…

Diffusion-VAE tackles multi-step stock price prediction with stochastic noise.

Quantile deep learning improves time series prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

Transformers learn multi-step reasoning through gradient descent.

Proposes a framework to quantify uncertainty in multi-step decision-making by LLMs.

As a popular meta-learning approach, the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm has been widely used due to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, the convergence of the general multi-step MAML still remains unexplored. In this paper, we develop a new theoretical framework to provide such convergence guarant…

AEnbMIMOCQR generates robust multi-step ahead prediction intervals for time series data.

Multi-step greedy policies have been extensively used in model-based reinforcement learning (RL), both when a model of the environment is available (e.g.,~in the game of Go) and when it is learned. In this paper, we explore their benefits in model-free RL, when employed using multi-step dynamic programming algorithms: …

We investigate the multi-step prediction of the drivable space, represented by Occupancy Grid Maps (OGMs), for autonomous vehicles. Our motivation is that accurate multi-step prediction of the drivable space can efficiently improve path planning and navigation resulting in safe, comfortable and optimum paths in autonom…

This work analyzes CoT prompting methods from a statistical estimation perspective.

We present a numerical framework for approximating unknown governing equations using observation data and deep neural networks (DNN). In particular, we propose to use residual network (ResNet) as the basic building block for equation approximation. We demonstrate that the ResNet block can be considered as a one-step me…

In this paper, we address the Online Unsupervised Domain Adaptation (OUDA) problem, where the target data are unlabelled and arriving sequentially. The traditional methods on the OUDA problem mainly focus on transforming each arriving target data to the source domain, and they do not sufficiently consider the temporal …

JANET improves time series prediction with adaptive uncertainty regions.

Novel unsupervised feature selection method using multi-step Markov transition probability.

Proposes a multi-stream RNN model for predicting merchant transactions.

Multi-step-ahead time series prediction is one of the most challenging research topics in the field of time series modeling and prediction, and is continually under research. Recently, the multiple-input several multiple-outputs (MISMO) modeling strategy has been proposed as a promising alternative for multi-step-ahead…

FastVoiceGrad speeds up VC to one step, matching or surpassing quality.

The paper addresses Dyna-style RL's value hallucination issue by proposing a new algorithm.

New algorithm learns optimal policy with multi-step lookahead information.

Model forecasts water demand with probabilistic multi-step-ahead approach.

Spatiotemporal systems are common in the real-world. Forecasting the multi-step future of these spatiotemporal systems based on the past observations, or, Spatiotemporal Sequence Forecasting (STSF), is a significant and challenging problem. Although lots of real-world problems can be viewed as STSF and many research wo…

The paper explores dual learning, a technique that improves machine translation and image transformation.

Recently, a new multi-step temporal learning algorithm, called $Q(σ)$, unifies $n$-step Tree-Backup (when $σ=0$) and $n$-step Sarsa (when $σ=1$) by introducing a sampling parameter $σ$. However, similar to other multi-step temporal-difference learning algorithms, $Q(σ)$ needs much memory consumption and computation tim…

Proposes QDF to improve multi-step time-series forecasting.

Accurate time series prediction over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to both practitioners and academics. As a well-known intelligent algorithm, the standard formulation of Support Vector Regression (SVR) could be taken for multi-step-ahead time series prediction, only relying either on iterat…

This study proposes methods for multi-step-ahead stock price prediction using decomposition and neural networks.

Agents need world models to generalize multi-step tasks.

Due to burdensome data requirements, learning from demonstration often falls short of its promise to allow users to quickly and naturally program robots. Demonstrations are inherently ambiguous and incomplete, making correct generalization to unseen situations difficult without a large number of demonstrations in varyi…

Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.

Multi-step methods such as Retrace($λ$) and $n$-step $Q$-learning have become a crucial component of modern deep reinforcement learning agents. These methods are often evaluated as a part of bigger architectures and their evaluations rarely include enough samples to draw statistically significant conclusions about thei…

New approaches improve uncertainty quantification in autoregressive models for sequence data.

In recent years, deep neural networks have demonstrated outstanding performance in many machine learning tasks. However, researchers have discovered that these state-of-the-art models are vulnerable to adversarial examples: legitimate examples added by small perturbations which are unnoticeable to human eyes. Adversari…