Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become an integral part of domains such as security, finance, healthcare, medicine, and criminal justice. Explaining the decisions of AI systems in human terms is a key challenge--due to the high complexity of the model, as well as the potential implications on human interests, rights, …
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,742 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “explainable quantification”
The paper shows how uncertainty quantification improves counterfactual explainability in AI.
problem Lack of foundational concepts in transparency research.
method Integrates uncertainty quantification into counterfactual explainability.
result Demonstrates competitive performance of an uncertainty-based explainer.
GWRBoost improves GWR for better spatial relationship quantification.
problem Underfitting in GWR for complex data and lack of explainable quantification.
method Geographically weighted gradient boosting model using localized additive model and gradient boosting optimization.
result Significant improvement in RMSE and AICc compared to classic GWR.
Proposes a method to quantify and explain deep learning model uncertainties.
problem Deep learning model predictions are sensitive to perturbations and adversarial attacks.
method Gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify problematic regions and propose mitigation strategies.
result Proposed UA-Backprop method achieves competitive accuracy and efficiency compared to existing methods.
The paper uses statistics to improve the explainability of models.
problem Subjective human assessment of explanations and lack of theoretical guarantees.
method Leveraging statistical estimators for proper definition and evaluation of explanations.
result Statistical tools provide theoretical guarantees and evaluation metrics for explanations.
Proposes a simple method to explain aleatoric uncertainty in neural networks.
problem Lack of transparent explanations for uncertainty estimates in AI models.
method Adapting a neural network with Gaussian output to estimate predictive variance and applying explainers to the variance output.
result The proposed method explains uncertainty more reliably than complex approaches and outperforms them in most settings.
Novel approach uses ENN for UQ in gust predictions, reducing RMSE and improving confidence.
problem Reducing bias and uncertainty in wind gust predictions.
method Evidential Neural Network (ENN) with Explainable AI.
result 47% reduction in RMSE, 95% coverage of observed gusts at 179 out of 266 stations.
Regularization helps resolve ambiguity in mean-variance models, improving predictive uncertainty quantification.
problem Signal-to-noise ambiguity in overparameterized mean-variance models.
method Statistical field theory framework to explain phase transition.
result Regularization reduces variability and improves predictive uncertainty quantification.
The paper introduces a method to assess the reliability of model explanations.
problem Assessing the quality and reliability of model explanations.
method An Ordinal Consensus Approach using diverse bootstrapped surrogate explainers.
result Uncertainty estimates offer actionable insights beyond standard surrogate explainers.
ADS explains object differences by quantifying and removing underlying properties.
problem Explaining differences between two object images.
method Align-Deform-Subtract (ADS) framework that uses semantic alignments and iterative quantification/removal of differences.
result ADS provides disentangled error measures explaining object differences in terms of underlying properties.
New framework quantifies uncertainties in neural network explanations.
problem Lack of methods to quantify uncertainties in neural network explanations.
method Converts any explanation method into a Bayesian neural network method, modeling uncertainties.
result Allows quantification of explanation uncertainties and appropriate confidence levels.
EBLIME enhances model explanations using Bayesian ridge regression.
problem Improving model explanations for black-box machine learning models.
method EBLIME uses Bayesian ridge regression to explain feature importance.
result EBLIME provides more intuitive and accurate feature importance rankings.
Antithetic noise improves diffusion models' uncertainty quantification.
problem Improving uncertainty quantification in diffusion models.
method Pairing each noise sample with its negation, leading to strong negative correlation.
result Substantially more reliable uncertainty quantification with up to 90% narrower confidence intervals.
Develops a method to explain deep learning models for complex systems.
problem Rapid simulation-based prototyping of complex systems with high-dimensional CVs and QoIs.
method Moment-independent global sensitivity analysis using differential mutual information.
result Surrogate model driven by mutual information provides useful rankings and optimizations.
New method explains sensitivity of test data uncertainty in Bayesian inference.
problem Widespread belief that test data similarity reduces epistemic uncertainty.
method Information-theoretic decomposition of predictive uncertainty.
result Defines sensitivity using information-theoretic quantities.
New statistical methods improve explainability of boosting models.
problem Uncertainty quantification for boosting models is computationally intensive and hard to interpret.
method Derive methods for statistical inference using gradient boosting and Boulevard regularization.
result Achieve asymptotically normal predictions with theoretical guarantees and runtime independent of data size.
Uncertainty Quantification in Seismic Inversion Through Integrated Importance Sampling and Ensemble Methodsphysics.geo-ph
This study improves uncertainty quantification in seismic inversion.
problem Uncertainty in seismic inversion due to limited data and model diversity.
method Integrates ensemble methods with importance sampling.
result More accurate uncertainty quantification in velocity models.
New method provides calibrated feature importance explanations for regression models.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in existing local explanation methods.
method Extension of Calibrated Explanations method to support regression and probabilistic regression.
result Calibrated Explanations for regression provides quantified uncertainty and robust explanations.
Proposes FedPop for personalised federated learning with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification and client drift in personalised federated learning.
method FedPop recasts FL into population modeling with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
result Non-asymptotic convergence guarantees for uncertainty quantification.
The paper debiases mini-batch approximations in deep learning for more accurate optimization and uncertainty quantification.
problem Bias in mini-batch approximations distorts the shape of quadratic approximations used in deep learning.
method Developed and evaluated debiasing strategies for mini-batch approximations.
result Debiasing strategies improve the accuracy of second-order optimization and uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
On the Need to Align Intent and Implementation in Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learningcs.LG
Clarifies challenges in machine learning uncertainty quantification.
problem Inconsistent terminology and diverse technical requirements for trustworthy uncertainties.
method Examines estimation targets, uncertainty constructs, and problematic mappings.
result Advocates for alignment between intent and implementation in UQ.
Bayesian method identifies dynamical models with uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty in selecting governing equations for dynamical systems.
method Bayesian sparse identification with model averaging.
result Accurately recovers sparse interaction structures with uncertainty quantification.
This paper emphasizes the need for uncertainty quantification in data-driven ML models for nuclear engineering.
problem Uncertainty in ML predictions due to data noise, model architecture, and stochastic training.
method Explains and compares uncertainties in physics-based and data-driven models, and presents techniques to quantify ML prediction uncertainties.
result The importance of uncertainty quantification in ML models for nuclear engineering applications.
This paper presents a method to explain how the information of each input variable is gradually discarded during the forward propagation in a deep neural network (DNN), which provides new perspectives to explain DNNs. We define two types of entropy-based metrics, i.e. (1) the discarding of pixel-wise information used i…
BetaExplainer improves GNN interpretability by masking unimportant edges.
problem Interpreting GNNs' predictions is difficult due to black-box behavior and lack of uncertainty quantification.
method BetaExplainer uses a sparsity-inducing prior to mask unimportant edges during training.
result BetaExplainer provides uncertainty in edge importance and improves predictive accuracy on challenging datasets.
Validates network bootstraps for uncertainty quantification in network visualisation.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in network embeddings when only a single observation is available.
method Statistical indistinguishable embeddings using k-nearest neighbour smoothing, validated by an exchangeable network test.
result Proposes a principled, distribution-free network bootstrap that passes the exchangeable network test.
Bayesian model explains and improves black-box estimators for class distribution.
problem Calibrating probabilistic classifiers and uncertainty quantification for unlabeled data.
method Introduced a Bayesian model approximating the ground-truth generative process, using efficient MCMC sampling.
result The Bayesian model is competitive and sometimes superior to established point estimators.
Bayesian Deep Learning Hyperparameter Search for Robust Function Mapping to Polynomials with Noisecs.LG
This paper explores BDL hyperparameters for robust polynomial mapping with noise.
problem Designing BDL hyperparameters for robust function mapping with uncertainty quantification.
method Mapping Bayesian connectionist representations to polynomials of varying orders and noise types.
result Optimal network depth and ensemble size for prediction and uncertainty quantification.
MarkerMap selects key genes for cell type analysis in single-cell RNA-seq.
problem Selecting informative genes from large single-cell RNA-seq datasets is challenging and computationally intensive.
method MarkerMap is a generative model that identifies minimal gene sets explaining cell type variability.
result MarkerMap outperforms existing methods in both supervised and unsupervised marker selection.
Novel method detects faults in helicopter transmissions using healthy data only.
problem Detecting faults in rare events in helicopter transmissions.
method Probabilistic anomaly detection using Bayesian measures.
result Method achieves competitive detection performance in real-world and benchmark applications.
Availability of an explainable deep learning model that can be applied to practical real world scenarios and in turn, can consistently, rapidly and accurately identify specific and minute traits in applicable fields of biological sciences, is scarce. Here we consider one such real world example viz., accurate identific…
HistNetQ improves quantification tasks by optimizing loss functions and eliminating label requirements.
problem Quantification of class prevalence in bags of examples.
method Permutation-invariant Histograms and deep neural networks.
result HistNetQ outperforms other quantification methods and optimizes custom loss functions.
Quantification is a supervised learning task that consists in predicting, given a set of classes C and a set D of unlabelled items, the prevalence (or relative frequency) p(c|D) of each class c in C. Quantification can in principle be solved by classifying all the unlabelled items and counting how many of them have bee…
We discuss promising recent contributions on quantifying feature relevance using Shapley values, where we observed some confusion on which probability distribution is the right one for dropped features. We argue that the confusion is based on not carefully distinguishing between observational and interventional conditi…
Fortuna simplifies uncertainty quantification in deep learning.
problem Improving uncertainty estimates in deep learning models.
method Supports various calibration techniques including conformal prediction and scalable Bayesian inference.
result Simplifies benchmarking and builds robust AI systems.
\emph{Sentiment Quantification} (i.e., the task of estimating the relative frequency of sentiment-related classes -- such as \textsf{Positive} and \textsf{Negative} -- in a set of unlabelled documents) is an important topic in sentiment analysis, as the study of sentiment-related quantities and trends across a populati…
ShapleyBO explains BO's decisions, enhancing human-AI collaboration in robotics.
problem Lack of explainability in BO's black box nature, especially in human-in-the-loop applications.
method Uses game-theoretic Shapley values to quantify and interpret BO's parameter contributions.
result ShapleyBO identifies exploration and exploitation contributions, disentangling aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty.
Unified framework explains few-shot multimodal medical imaging performance.
problem Limited labeled data in rare diseases and low-resource settings.
method PAC learning, VC theory, PAC Bayesian analysis, information gain, Chain of Thought reasoning.
result Unified theoretical framework for few-shot multimodal medical imaging.
We provide scientific foundations for athletic performance prediction on an individual level, exposing the phenomenology of individual athletic running performance in the form of a low-rank model dominated by an individual power law. We present, evaluate, and compare a selection of methods for prediction of individual …
GeoShapley uses game theory to measure spatial effects in ML models.
problem Measuring the impact of location on machine learning model predictions.
method Extends Shapley value framework to quantify spatial effects in various ML models.
result Validated GeoShapley values against known processes and demonstrated utility in house price modeling.
Bayesian meta learning improves uncertainty quantification in regression.
problem Trusting uncertainty quantification in Bayesian regression.
method Trust-Bayes framework for Bayesian meta learning, optimizing for trustworthy uncertainty quantification.
result Lower bounds and sample complexity for trustworthy uncertainty quantification are characterized.
BIF assesses feature importance using Dirichlet distribution and Bayesian inference.
problem Quantitative feature importance assessment in statistical models.
method Utilizes Dirichlet distribution for probabilistic feature importance assessment via approximate Bayesian inference.
result Learned importance provides relative significance and confidence quantification of features.
UAG defends GNNs against adversarial attacks by quantifying and explaining uncertainties.
problem Lack of uncertainty quantification in GNNs makes them vulnerable to adversarial attacks.
method UAG uses Bayesian Uncertainty Technique (BUT) and Uncertainty-aware Attention Technique (UAT).
result UAG outperforms state-of-the-art solutions in defending adversarial attacks on GNNs.
This tutorial simplifies Gaussian process regression for beginners.
problem Understanding Gaussian process regression for machine learning.
method Explains basic concepts, provides a concise GPR description, and reviews implementation packages.
result Clear understanding of Gaussian process regression fundamentals.
Bayesian uncertainty quantification is flawed, according to new research.
problem Flawed interpretation of Bayesian uncertainty quantification.
method Discussion of Bayesian updating and optimization-based perspective, proposing measures of quality.
result Bayesian uncertainty quantification is not coherent with optimization-based perspective.
Deep models can fit noisy labels, but robustness and reliability are still issues.
problem Training deep models with noisy labels leads to unreliable uncertainty quantification.
method Analysis of conditional distribution over noisy labels and evaluation of robust loss functions.
result Strictly proper and robust loss functions preserve accuracy but do not guarantee reliability.
Efficiently solves high-dimensional ODEs with probabilistic methods.
problem Solving high-dimensional ODEs with uncertainty quantification.
method Probabilistic numerical algorithm based on independence assumptions or Kronecker structure.
result Efficient probabilistic solutions for ODEs with millions of dimensions.
Pairing an arbitrary regressor with an artificial neural network estimating aleatoric uncertaintystat.ML
We suggest a general approach to quantification of different forms of aleatoric uncertainty in regression tasks performed by artificial neural networks. It is based on the simultaneous training of two neural networks with a joint loss function and a specific hyperparameter that allows for automatically detecting …