Most research on the interpretability of machine learning systems focuses on the development of a more rigorous notion of interpretability. I suggest that a better understanding of the deficiencies of the intuitive notion of interpretability is needed as well. I show that visualization enables but also impedes intuitiv…
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48 results for “intuitive”
LemonadeBench evaluates LLMs' economic intuition through a simulated lemonade stand.
problem Evaluating LLMs' economic understanding and decision-making in simple markets.
method Simulated lemonade stand business to test LLMs' long-term planning and profit maximization.
result Models achieve profitability but exhibit local rather than global optimization.
At an early age, human infants are able to learn and build a model of the world very quickly by constantly observing and interacting with objects around them. One of the most fundamental intuitions human infants acquire is intuitive physics. Human infants learn and develop these models, which later serve as prior knowl…
Modern ML methods show unexpected behaviors that contradict classical statistics.
problem Modern machine learning methods exhibit behaviors at odds with classical statistical intuitions.
method Comparison between fixed and random design settings in ML and statistics.
result Moving from fixed to random designs reveals new insights into bias-variance tradeoffs and overfitting.
Sequential Subspace Search for Functional Bayesian Optimization Incorporating Experimenter Intuitioncs.LG
Bayesian optimization guided by experimenter intuition and beliefs.
problem Finding optimal functions with experimenter's beliefs incorporated.
method Sequential Subspace Search using Gaussian Process.
result Algorithm converges in sub-linear time with finite effective dimension.
In this expository article, we introduce the topological ideas and context central to the Poincare Conjecture. Our account is intended for a general audience, providing intuitive definitions and spatial intuition whenever possible. We define surfaces and their natural generalizations, manifolds. We then discuss the cla…
This tutorial simplifies Gaussian process regression for beginners.
problem Understanding Gaussian process regression for machine learning.
method Explains basic concepts, provides a concise GPR description, and reviews implementation packages.
result Clear understanding of Gaussian process regression fundamentals.
New framework aims to make neural network explanations more reliable.
problem Current interpretability methods rely on intuition and lack falsifiability.
method Proposes a framework for strongly falsifiable interpretability research.
result Falsifiable interpretability methods can generate meaningful advances in understanding DNNs.
The recent successes of deep learning have led to a wave of interest from non-experts. Gaining an understanding of this technology, however, is difficult. While the theory is important, it is also helpful for novices to develop an intuitive feel for the effect of different hyperparameters and structural variations. We …
Introduces joint Shapley values to measure feature importance in models.
problem Measuring the importance of feature sets in machine learning models.
method Extends Shapley's axioms to measure a set of features' average contribution to a model's prediction.
result Joint Shapley values provide unique insights and are more consistent with local intuitions.
Ray marching method visualizes flat surfaces efficiently.
problem Efficient visualization of flat surfaces.
method Ray marching approach for intuitive exploration.
result Effective visualization of translation surfaces and polyhedra.
The motivations for using variational inference (VI) in neural networks differ significantly from those in latent variable models. This has a counter-intuitive consequence; more expressive variational approximations can provide significantly worse predictions as compared to those with less expressive families. In this …
Advocates focusing on utility functions to avoid unfair outcomes.
problem Unfair outcomes from fairness criteria in optimizing policies.
method Defines value of information fairness and proposes modifying utility functions.
result Value of information fairness leads to better answers than existing fairness notions.
This paper provides intuition on the relationship of accrual and mark-to-market valuation for cash and forward interest rate trades. Discounted cashflow valuation is compared to spread-based valuation for forward trades, which explains the trader's view on valuation. This is followed by Taylor series approximation for …
The translation is not verbatim, many parts have been abbreviated and in some case alternative proofs were devised emphasizing intuition.
New method combines score lists using joint CDFs, improving computation.
problem Combining non-comparable score lists over a common index set.
method New algorithm for computing joint CDF values, linear runtime.
result Improved computation of joint CDF values for N-dimensional order statistics.
Framework uses probabilistic programming for physics simulation in games.
problem Efficiently simulate physics in games using probabilistic programming.
method Combines model-free and model-based approaches to improve efficiency.
result Model outperforms model-free or model-based approaches alone.
High-capacity neural network ensembles often benefit more from high-capacity models than from increased diversity.
problem The performance of high-capacity neural network ensembles is often harmed by interventions that promote predictive diversity.
method A large-scale study of nearly 600 neural network classification ensembles, examining various interventions and architectures.
result Discouraging predictive diversity can be benign in large-network ensembles, and higher-capacity models often yield better performance than diverse architectures.
Based on two classical notions of curvature for curves in general metric spaces, namely the Menger and Haantjes curvatures, we introduce new definitions of sectional, Ricci and scalar curvature for networks and their higher dimensional counterparts. These new types of curvature, that apply to weighted and unweighted, d…
Intuitive clustering algorithm balances cluster size and cohesion.
problem Cluster definition and selection in data analysis.
method Nearest neighbours equilibrium condition for clustering.
result High-quality clustering solutions compared to benchmarks.
Deep learning is an effective approach to solving image recognition problems. People draw intuitive conclusions from trading charts; this study uses the characteristics of deep learning to train computers in imitating this kind of intuition in the context of trading charts. The three steps involved are as follows: 1. B…
Principal component analysis (PCA) is a mainstay of modern data analysis - a black box that is widely used but (sometimes) poorly understood. The goal of this paper is to dispel the magic behind this black box. This manuscript focuses on building a solid intuition for how and why principal component analysis works. Thi…
In this paper, we revisit the Kalman filter theory. After giving the intuition on a simplified financial markets example, we revisit the maths underlying it. We then show that Kalman filter can be presented in a very different fashion using graphical models. This enables us to establish the connection between Kalman fi…
Paper establishes a formula linking model performance to insurance loss ratio.
problem Improving model performance does not always lead to proportional improvements in loss ratio.
method Derives a closed-form formula connecting Pearson correlation to expected loss ratio.
result Model improvements have diminishing marginal returns in reducing loss ratio.
We introduce backdrop, a flexible and simple-to-implement method, intuitively described as dropout acting only along the backpropagation pipeline. Backdrop is implemented via one or more masking layers which are inserted at specific points along the network. Each backdrop masking layer acts as the identity in the forwa…
GeoStat simplifies time series classification with fast, intuitive features.
problem Efficiently classify time series data without high computational costs.
method GeoStat representations based on differential geometric statistics.
result Simple KNN and SVM classifiers achieve state-of-the-art performance.
Burau representation of the Artin braid group remains as one of the very important representations for the braid group. Partly, because of its connections to the Alexander polynomial which is one of the first and most useful invariants for knots and links. In the present work, we show that interesting representations o…
ESAC improves reinforcement learning by lookahead and intuition.
problem Designing efficient reinforcement learning architectures for intelligent agents.
method Integrates selector, tuner, model-learner, estimator, and lookahead into ESAC.
result ESAC outperforms other architectures in optimizing policies.
We consider the problem of detecting anomalies in a large dataset. We propose a framework called Partial Identification which captures the intuition that anomalies are easy to distinguish from the overwhelming majority of points by relatively few attribute values. Formalizing this intuition, we propose a geometric anom…
We develop a machine learning approach to represent and analyze the underlying spatial structure that governs shot selection among professional basketball players in the NBA. Typically, NBA players are discussed and compared in an heuristic, imprecise manner that relies on unmeasured intuitions about player behavior. T…
Classifiers that achieve demographic balance by explicitly using protected attributes such as race or gender are often politically or culturally controversial due to their lack of individual fairness, i.e. individuals with similar qualifications will receive different outcomes. Individually and group fair decision crit…
By the curve shortening flow, the only closed embedded contracting self-similar solutions are circles: we give a very short and intuitive geometric proof of this basic and classical result using an idea of Gage.
Deep Reinforcement Learning has enabled the control of increasingly complex and high-dimensional problems. However, the need of vast amounts of data before reasonable performance is attained prevents its widespread application. We employ binary corrective feedback as a general and intuitive manner to incorporate human …
We consider distributed online learning protocols that control the exchange of information between local learners in a round-based learning scenario. The learning performance of such a protocol is intuitively optimal if approximately the same loss is incurred as in a hypothetical serial setting. If a protocol accomplis…
Here, a non-linear analysis method is applied rather than classical one to study projective changes of Finsler metrics. More intuitively, a projectively invariant pseudo-distance is introduced and characterized with respect to the Ricci tensor and its covariant derivatives.
Explains deep learning models and their geometric properties.
problem Understanding the geometric intuition behind deep learning models.
method Geometrical intuition and novel insights into loss surfaces of deep learning models.
result Deep neural networks carve out manifolds with multiplication neurons.
In this fact sheet we give some preliminary research results on the Bayesian Decision Theory. This theory has been under construction for the past two years. But what started as an intuitive enough idea, now seems to have the makings of something more fundamental.
Disagreement is an essential element of science and life in general. The language of probabilities and statistics is often used to describe disagreements quantitatively. In practice, however, we want much more than that. We want disagreements to be resolved. This leaves us with a substantial knowledge gap which is ofte…
This paper unifies three regularization methods in batch reinforcement learning.
problem Learning overly-complex models in batch reinforcement learning.
method Unified weighted average transition matrix framework for three regularization methods.
result Empirical evaluation confirms intuitions about regularization methods' performance.
Two simple methods learn fair metrics from data to improve fairness in ML tasks.
problem Lack of widely accepted fair metrics for many ML tasks hinders individual fairness adoption.
method Presented two simple ways to learn fair metrics from various data types.
result Fair training with learned metrics improves fairness on three ML tasks.
Missing data enhances privacy in differential privacy.
problem Privacy preservation in datasets with missing values.
method Formalized missing data as a privacy amplification mechanism within differential privacy.
result Incomplete data can yield privacy amplification for differentially private algorithms.
Neural networks are known to be a class of highly expressive functions able to fit even random input-output mappings with accuracy. In this work, we present properties of neural networks that complement this aspect of expressivity. By using tools from Fourier analysis, we show that deep ReLU networks are biased…
The design of robotic systems is largely dictated by our purely human intuition about how we perceive the world. This intuition has been proven incorrect with regard to a number of critical issues, such as visual change blindness. In order to develop truly autonomous robots, we must step away from this intuition and le…
Graphical models improve actuarial judgment in insurance claims analysis.
problem Improving actuarial judgment in insurance claims analysis.
method Using graphical models to represent complex inter-dependencies and incorporate qualitative knowledge.
result Graphical models can be used to express and analyze non-life insurance claims data.
We propose an efficient method to estimate the accuracy of classifiers using only unlabeled data. We consider a setting with multiple classification problems where the target classes may be tied together through logical constraints. For example, a set of classes may be mutually exclusive, meaning that a data instance c…
Recent work in model-agnostic explanations of black-box machine learning has demonstrated that interpretability of complex models does not have to come at the cost of accuracy or model flexibility. However, it is not clear what kind of explanations, such as linear models, decision trees, and rule lists, are the appropr…
The study improves prediction regions for hierarchical data using a projection step.
problem Improving prediction regions for hierarchical multivariate data.
method Integrating a projection step in the split conformal prediction (SCP) procedure to reduce prediction regions.
result The resulting prediction regions are globally smaller under both joint and component-wise coverage objectives.
We consider two multi-armed bandit problems with arms: (i) given an , identify an arm with mean that is within of the largest mean and (ii) given a threshold and integer , identify arms with means larger than . Existing lower bounds and algorithms for the PAC framework suggest that both …