The paper develops distribution-free methods for ordinal classification.
problem Constructing valid prediction sets for ordinal classification problems.
method Leveraging conformal prediction and multiple testing with FWER control.
result The proposed methods achieve satisfactory levels of marginal and class-specific conditional coverages.
Locus scores predictions for risk, reducing large-loss events.
problem Deployment cost from inaccurate predictions, especially large losses.
method Distribution-free loss-scale reliability score using any predictive distribution.
result Reduces large-loss frequency compared to standard heuristics.
The paper proposes a method for distribution-free prediction sets that adapt to unknown temporal changes.
problem Distribution-free prediction sets require reliable calibration data, which is often unavailable in real-world settings with temporal changes.
method The method selects an adaptive window to construct prediction sets, optimizing a bias-variance tradeoff.
result The method provides sharp coverage guarantees and is shown to be adaptive to temporal drift through numerical experiments.
Develops an online learning method for large/streaming data.
problem Prediction in large/streaming data sets.
method Covariance-fitting methodology for online learning.
result Predictor with desirable properties: linear runtime, constant memory, no local minima, prunes redundant dimensions.
Study three types of uncertainty quantification for binary classification without distributional assumptions.
problem Uncertainty quantification for binary classification in a distribution-free setting.
method Established theorems connecting calibration, confidence intervals, and prediction sets for score-based classifiers.
result Distribution-free calibration is only possible using scoring functions that partition feature space into countably many sets.
The paper tackles uncertainty quantification for classification under label shift without assuming i.i.d. data.
problem Uncertainty quantification for classification under label shift in non-i.i.d. settings.
method The paper uses conformal prediction and post-hoc binning for distribution-free UQ, and reweights these methods for label shift.
result The reweighted methods improve UQ performance under label shift, preserving coverage and calibration.
Conformal prediction provides distribution-free uncertainty quantification for black-box models.
problem Uncertainty quantification for high-risk machine learning applications.
method Conformal prediction creates valid uncertainty sets without distributional assumptions.
result Sets contain the ground truth with a specified probability, e.g., 90%.
Conformal prediction offers distribution-free inference for complex models.
problem Traditional predictive inference methods are limited by assumptions about data distributions and model details.
method Conformal prediction uses symmetry assumptions and treats learning algorithms as black boxes.
result Conformal prediction provides exact finite-sample guarantees, even under limited assumptions.
Method predicts NAFLD risk with high accuracy and distribution-free coverage guarantees.
problem Insufficient population-level screening tools for NAFLD.
method Gradient-boosted decision trees with conformal prediction.
result Method achieves AUROC of 0.912 internally and 0.891 externally, superior to other models.
Unified review of Conformal Prediction theory and applications.
problem Distribution-free, non-parametric forecasting method for valid prediction sets.
method Minimal assumptions, straightforward predictions sets valid in finite sample cases.
result Unified review of Conformal Prediction theory and applications.
Mack's estimator improves chain ladder prediction for large exposure insurance models.
problem Uncertainty quantification in compound Poisson loss models.
method Large exposure asymptotics applied to Mack's estimator.
result Chain ladder prediction uncertainty can be quantified without model assumptions.
Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample guarantees for black-box models without distributional assumptions.
problem Weak performance guarantees for modern predictive models under minimal assumptions.
method Develops finite-sample guarantees for split conformal prediction, a method that uses nested prediction sets and order statistics.
result The coverage of prediction sets based on order statistics stochastically dominates the Beta distribution.
MAPS algorithm creates reliable prediction intervals for high-dimensional data.
problem Computing reliable conditional prediction intervals in high-dimensional settings.
method Lifted predictive model (LPM) and MAPS algorithm for distribution-free intervals.
result MAPS algorithm produces valid prediction intervals for any trained model.
The paper reviews exchangeability and its implications for conformal prediction and rank tests.
problem Ensuring distribution-free predictive inference in machine learning and statistics.
method Explains exchangeability and its role in conformal prediction and rank tests.
result Discovers similarities between conformal prediction and rank tests based on exchangeability.
Method constructs nonparametric prediction intervals with finite-sample guarantees.
problem Nonparametric instrumental variable regression with finite-sample coverage.
method Conformal inference framework applied to NPIV, combining with various estimators.
result Distribution-free, finite-sample coverage over chosen IV shifts.
New framework for robust uncertainty quantification in strategic settings.
problem Machine learning model predictions can be strategically altered by informed agents.
method Strategic Conformal Prediction framework
result Theoretical guarantees and experimental validation show remarkable effectiveness.
New method for distribution-free regression prediction intervals.
problem Creating reliable prediction intervals for regression without distributional assumptions.
method Conformal inference, split conformal inference, jackknife method.
result Valid prediction intervals with finite-sample coverage guarantees.
A method for making predictions with a reject option using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty in machine learning predictions, especially when models are unsure.
method Formalizing ML with reject option, using conformal prediction for distribution-free error guarantees.
result Theoretical guarantees on error rate for prediction sets with distribution-free validity.
ERAPS builds prediction sets for time-series data.
problem Uncertainty quantification in complex machine learning methods for time-series data.
method ERAPS is an ensemble-based framework for constructing prediction sets for time-series data, allowing unknown dependencies within features and responses.
result ERAPS demonstrates valid marginal and conditional coverage and yields smaller prediction sets than competing methods.
Algorithm learns without knowing distribution, reducing error.
problem Sequential prediction with adversarial injections and abstentions.
method Boosting procedure of weak learners for general VC classes.
result Sublinear error guarantees for general VC classes.
Paper extends conformal prediction to complex survey data.
problem Applying distribution-free prediction intervals to complex survey data.
method Design-based conformal prediction for non-exchangeable data.
result Empirical guarantees of finite-sample coverage for complex survey data.
E-values enhance conformal prediction methods.
problem Distribution-free uncertainty quantification.
method Reformulation of conformal prediction using e-values.
result E-values offer new theoretical and practical capabilities.
The paper tackles distribution-free prediction intervals for multi-source data.
problem Challenges in achieving valid inferences due to distribution shifts and privacy concerns.
method Derives efficient influence functions, incorporates machine learning, and proposes data-adaptive strategies.
result Achieves parametric rates of convergence to nominal coverage probabilities for prediction intervals.
Valid p-value for bounded random variables without distributional assumptions.
problem Calibration of predictive algorithms in a distribution-free setting.
method Built a super-uniform p-value based on a concentration inequality.
result Super-uniform p-value is tighter than existing alternatives.
The paper explores how over-parameterized linear regression models generalize without violating learning theory principles.
problem Understanding how over-parameterized linear regression models generalize without violating learning theory principles.
method The paper uses the predictive normalized maximum likelihood (pNML) learner to investigate the minimum norm solution of over-parameterized linear regression models.
result The model generalizes well when the test sample lies in a subspace spanned by eigenvectors associated with large eigenvalues of the training data.
MAPIE provides uncertainty quantification for ML models.
problem Estimating uncertainties in ML model predictions.
method Conformal prediction methods for single-output regression and multi-class classification.
result Strong theoretical guarantees on marginal coverages.
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility approaches. In …
Equalized coverage method ensures fair prediction intervals across protected groups.
problem Ensuring fair use of data-driven recommendation systems by communicating their uncertainty.
method Operational methodology that forces unbiased prediction intervals across all protected groups, offering rigorous distribution-free coverage guarantees.
result Equalized coverage constructs unbiased prediction intervals, unlike competitive methods.
Four geometries govern sequential and distribution-free inference.
problem Sequential and distribution-free inference challenges.
method Four distinct admissibility geometries.
result Four classes of admissible procedures are pairwise non-nested.
CREDO combines credal and conformal methods to create interpretable prediction intervals.
problem Overconfident prediction intervals in regions of model extrapolation.
method CREDO uses a credal envelope to widen intervals in weak evidence regions and then applies conformal calibration.
result CREDO prediction intervals are interpretable and maintain target coverage.
ResCP uses reservoir computing to create efficient, scalable time series prediction intervals.
problem Building distribution-free prediction intervals for time series data with small sample sizes and changing distributions.
method Reservoir Conformal Prediction (ResCP) leverages reservoir computing to dynamically reweight conformity scores based on similarity among reservoir states.
result ResCP achieves asymptotic conditional coverage and is effective across diverse forecasting tasks.
Unified framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in RL.
problem Uncertainty quantification in high-stakes reinforcement learning.
method Unified conformal prediction framework integrating distributional RL and conformal calibration.
result Significantly improved coverage and reliability over standard methods.
A new method avoids quantile crossing in time series forecasting.
problem Quantile crossing in joint quantile regressions.
method Incremental (Spline) Quantile Functions (I(S)QF) with neural network.
result Improves consistency and accuracy in time series forecasting.
DistPred provides a fast, distribution-free method for regression and forecasting.
problem Deterministic point estimates in regression and prediction tasks.
method Transforming proper scoring rules into a differentiable form and using it as a loss function.
result Achieved state-of-the-art performance and significantly improved computational efficiency.
The paper offers a method to create prediction sets with uncertainty control.
problem Calibrating and communicating uncertainty in machine learning predictions.
method Distribution-free, risk-controlling prediction sets using a holdout set to calibrate set sizes.
result Explicit finite-sample guarantees for error control in various machine learning tasks.
EPICSCORE improves conformal scores by explicitly accounting for epistemic uncertainty.
problem Overconfident predictions in data-sparse regions due to lack of epistemic uncertainty.
method Model-agnostic approach using Bayesian techniques like Gaussian Processes, Dropout, and Regression Trees.
result Enhanced predictive intervals that adaptively expand in sparse data regions and maintain compact intervals in abundant data.
Paper develops a neural network method for censored survival analysis.
problem Distribution-free quantile prediction for censored survival data.
method Develops a novel neural network algorithm for simultaneous quantile optimization.
result The algorithm produces better calibrated quantiles on real datasets.
ICP provides interval predictions with high confidence coverage.
problem High-risk settings where true output must be highly probable.
method ICP is a distribution-free, model-agnostic algorithm.
result ICP outputs prediction intervals with high coverage probability.
New method optimizes prediction set volume in conformal prediction.
problem Achieving volume optimality in conformal prediction without sacrificing coverage guarantees.
method Dynamic programming algorithm for finding near-optimal volume unions of k-intervals.
result Efficient algorithm finds unions of k-intervals with near-optimal volume for any distribution.
FavMac maximizes value while controlling cost in multi-label prediction.
problem Value-maximizing predictions with strict cost control in multi-label scenarios.
method FavMac pipeline combining any multi-label classifier with online update mechanism.
result FavMac achieves higher value with strict cost control compared to baselines.
`Distribution regression' refers to the situation where a response Y depends on a covariate P where P is a probability distribution. The model is Y=f(P) + mu where f is an unknown regression function and mu is a random error. Typically, we do not observe P directly, but rather, we observe a sample from P. In this paper…
TCP provides well-calibrated prediction intervals for nonstationary time series.
problem Nonstationary time series forecasting with well-calibrated prediction intervals.
method Temporal Conformal Prediction (TCP) couples a modern quantile forecaster with a rolling split-conformal calibration layer.
result TCP achieves near-nominal coverage, providing slightly wider intervals than Historical Simulation.
RLCP improves localized conformal prediction for covariate-specific miscalibration.
problem Localized conformal prediction struggles with covariate-specific miscalibration.
method Randomly localized conformal prediction (RLCP) calibrates near the test point while preserving marginal coverage.
result We provide finite-sample guarantees for RLCP, controlling conditional validity and oracle efficiency.
JAWS audits predictive uncertainty under covariate shift using jackknife+ weighted methods.
problem Auditing predictive uncertainty under data distribution shifts.
method JAW and JAWA methods for distribution-free uncertainty quantification.
result JAW relaxes the jackknife+'s assumption of data exchangeability for covariate shift.
Book teaches conformal prediction for complex machine learning systems.
problem Formal guarantees for machine learning prediction sets.
method Permutation tests and exchangeability for distribution-free inference.
result Provides formal, finite-sample guarantees for machine learning.
This paper develops methods for obtaining distribution-free prediction regions for invariant representations.
problem Distributional shifts in machine learning models.
method Invariant risk minimization and weighted conformity scores.
result Proves the effectiveness of adaptive conformal intervals for uncertainty estimation.
CREDO assesses decision optimality under uncertainty without assuming a model.
problem Uncertainty in decision-making without reliable quantification of optimality.
method CREDO uses the inverse feasible region and conformal prediction balls to estimate decision optimality probability.
result CREDO provides accurate, efficient, and reliable evaluations of decision optimality.
New methods for quantifying insurance claim cost uncertainty using LightGBM and GLMs.
problem Quantifying prediction uncertainty in insurance claim costs.
method Proposed non-conformity measures for GLMs and GBMs with Tweedie loss.
result Locally weighted Pearson residuals outperform other methods in maintaining nominal coverage with smallest average width.