Study uses deep learning to predict asset prices, finds complex target processes lead to meaningless predictions.
problem Complexity of successful price prediction models hinders understanding.
method Deep learning models for high-frequency price prediction, focusing on volatility and directional prediction.
result Inadequately defined target price process renders predictions meaningless.
Predicts short-term futures contract direction using neural networks and order flow data.
problem Challenges in predicting short-term directional movement of futures contracts.
method Engineering features from technical analysis, order flow, and order-book data; training a Tabnet neural network.
result Achieved an accuracy of 0.601 in predicting directional change on the Silver Futures Contract.
Machine learning models predict EUR/USD currency direction with 58.52% accuracy.
problem Predicting the directional movement of EUR/USD in the Foreign Exchange market.
method Comparative analysis of machine learning models, including decorrelated and non-decorrelated feature sets, and meta-estimators.
result 58.52% accuracy for one-day ahead forecasts.
DEDACT breaks down feature importance into direct and associative components.
problem Lack of clear distinction between direct and associative feature importance.
method DEDACT framework to decompose direct and associative importance measures.
result Provides insight into sources of prediction-relevant information and feature pathways.
Graph autoencoders (AE) and variational autoencoders (VAE) recently emerged as powerful node embedding methods. In particular, graph AE and VAE were successfully leveraged to tackle the challenging link prediction problem, aiming at figuring out whether some pairs of nodes from a graph are connected by unobserved edges…
The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. Many stock prediction studies focus on using macroeconomic indicators, such as CPI and GDP, to train the prediction model. However…
TSAM predicts directed temporal links using GCN and self-attention.
problem Predicting links in directed temporal networks.
method GCN, self-attention mechanism, autoencoder architecture, graph attentional layers, graph convolutional layers, graph recurrent unit layer.
result TSAM outperforms benchmarks on four realistic networks.
New methods improve neural directed link prediction across all sub-tasks.
problem Directed link prediction requires handling edge directionality and bidirectionality, not just edge existence.
method Proposes three strategies: Multi-Class Framework, Multi-Objective, and Scalarized approaches.
result Improved performance across all three sub-tasks of directed link prediction.
GG-SAGE predicts links in directed graphs with attributes, outperforming existing methods.
problem Predicting links in directed graphs with node attributes.
method Gravity-GraphSAGE, a modified GraphSAGE model with a gravity-inspired decoder.
result GG-SAGE outperforms state-of-the-art GDL link prediction techniques.
Self-directed learners can minimize mistakes in online classification.
problem Minimizing mistakes in online classification with adaptive prediction order.
method Designing efficient self-directed learners for linear classification.
result Strong separation between worst-order and random-order learning for linear classification.
Model predicts Bitcoin's future movements using multimodal pattern matching.
problem Challenges in predicting Bitcoin's volatile future movements.
method Ranking similar past chart patterns given current chart information.
result Improves directional prediction of Bitcoin's future movements.
Proposes a novel approach using vector cross product to preserve directional edges in directed graphs.
problem Preserving directional edges in directed graphs for tasks like link prediction and node recommendation.
method Integrates the non-commutative property of vector cross product into a Siamese neural network to learn N-dimensional embeddings.
result Low-dimensional embeddings effectively preserve directional properties and outperform state-of-the-art methods.
The paper predicts edge weights in weighted directed networks using metric geometry.
problem Predicting edge weights in weighted directed networks.
method Introducing new types of weighted directed networks (AWDNs), constructing metrics, and proposing modified kNN and SVM methods.
result The proposed methods outperform traditional approaches in predicting edge weights.
A new method for predicting uncertainties in stream networks.
problem Uncertainty quantification in spatiotemporal graphs with directional flow constraints.
method Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (STACI) integrating network topology and temporal dynamics.
result STACI effectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing methods.
Paper compares GRU and LSTM for predicting wildfire spread direction.
problem Predicting wildfire spread direction with limited data.
method Comparison of Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks.
result GRU performs better for longer time series than LSTM.
The paper presents a new method to represent directed graphs using pseudo-Riemannian manifolds.
problem Representing directed graphs in a compact and meaningful way.
method Combines pseudo-Riemannian metric structure, non-trivial global topology, and a unique likelihood function.
result Low-dimensional cylindrical Minkowski and anti-de Sitter spacetimes produce equal or better graph representations than curved Riemannian manifolds.
Identifying the underlying directional relations from observational time series with nonlinear interactions and complex relational structures is key to a wide range of applications, yet remains a hard problem. In this work, we introduce a novel minimum predictive information regularization method to infer directional r…
This work improves structured prediction by learning the balance between signal and random noise.
problem Structured prediction with random perturbations.
method Learning the variance of randomized structured predictors to balance signal and noise.
result Learning the balance improves structured prediction effectiveness.
New approach optimizes decisions based on uncertainty in predictions.
problem Mismatch between prediction accuracy and decision loss in sequential design.
method Directional uncertainty-guided approach to sequential experimental design.
result Directional uncertainty-based design stops earlier and performs better.
Novel Haar-Laplacian for directed graphs enhances spectral graph applications.
problem Lack of suitable Laplacian for directed graphs in spectral graph theory.
method Inspired by Haar-like transformation, introduces a Hermitian matrix preserving direction and weight.
result HaarNet outperforms in weight prediction and denoising on directed graphs.
Order-flow entropy predicts price magnitude without directionality.
problem Predicting price magnitude in financial markets.
method Real-time order-flow entropy computed from a 15-state Markov transition matrix.
result Order-flow entropy predicts the magnitude of intraday returns with high accuracy.
Deep learning predicts S&P 500 index direction.
problem Accurate stock price prediction remains challenging.
method Convolutional neural network model for S&P 500 index forecasting.
result Model achieves over 55% accuracy in predicting index direction.
DimeNet uses directional message passing to improve molecular predictions.
problem Lack of directional information in graph neural networks for molecules.
method Directional message passing, rotationally equivariant embeddings, spherical functions.
result DimeNet outperforms previous GNNs by 76% on MD17 and 31% on QM9.
Novel GNN for signed and directed networks using magnetic signed Laplacian.
problem Efficiently modeling signed and directed networks for tasks like clustering and link prediction.
method Introduced a magnetic signed Laplacian for directed signed graphs, used it to construct a spectral GNN.
result Demonstrated effective performance on tasks involving signed and directional information.
LLMs outperform human analysts in predicting earnings direction.
problem Evaluating financial statements without narrative or industry-specific information.
method Trained GPT4 on standardized, anonymous financial statements and instructed to predict earnings direction.
result LLMs predict earnings directionally with accuracy comparable to narrowly trained ML models.
Using artificial neural network for the prediction of heat demand has attracted more and more attention. Weather conditions, such as ambient temperature, wind speed and direct solar irradiance, have been identified as key input parameters. In order to further improve the model accuracy, it is of great importance to und…
Bitcoin's price direction is better predicted without additional drivers during high volatility.
problem Predicting Bitcoin's price direction using various determinants.
method Continuous local transfer entropy for feature selection and deep learning classification model.
result Bitcoin's price direction can be better predicted without additional drivers during high volatility.
LayerNorm transformers have dead directions that can be read from their parameters alone.
problem Locating dead directions in LayerNorm transformers
method Using the inverse-scale direction of LayerNorm affine parameters
result Predicted dead direction matches measured bottom singular direction
Study predicts stock price direction on earnings announcement days using multi-modal deep learning.
problem Predicting stock price movements during earnings announcements is challenging due to market noise and discontinuities.
method Constructed a multi-modal feature space combining fundamental metrics, technical indicators, and sentiment scores from financial news articles. Evaluated LSTM and Transformer models against a baseline.
result Transformer model outperforms LSTM in identifying volatile movements, achieving higher macro F1-score.
A new method learns node embeddings for signed directed networks by capturing both first-order and high-order topologies.
problem Learning representative node embeddings for signed directed networks considering both first-order and high-order topologies.
method Proposes a decoupled variational embedding (DVE) method that leverages a specially designed auto-encoder structure to capture both first-order and high-order topologies.
result Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show the effectiveness of DVE in link sign prediction and node recommendation tasks.
This paper examines quantile dependence between international stock markets and evaluates its use for improving volatility forecasting. First, we analyze quantile dependence and directional predictability between the US stock market and stock markets in the UK, Germany, France and Japan. We use the cross-quantilogram, …
This work reviews and evaluates methods for predicting prediction intervals in regression problems.
problem Calibration of prediction intervals in regression problems.
method Four classes of methods: Bayesian, ensemble, direct interval estimation, and conformal prediction.
result Conformal prediction can be used as a general calibration procedure.
Paper predicts high-frequency futures return directions using mean-uncertainty methods.
problem Data imbalance in short-term price movements of futures markets.
method Employed mean-uncertainty logistic regression and support vector machines under sublinear expectation framework.
result Mean-uncertainty approaches outperform conventional methods in classification metrics and average returns.
Neural networks for stock price prediction often misrepresent model performance due to flawed error metrics.
problem Flawed prediction error metrics lead to unreliable model evaluations in the securities market.
method Used data from 20 stock datasets across multiple markets and evaluated with four prediction error measures.
result Prediction error value only partially reflects model accuracy and fails to represent stock price direction.
In the present paper, an aerodynamic investigation of a high-speed train is performed. In the first section of this article, a generic high-speed train against a turbulent flow is simulated, numerically. The Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations combined with the turbulence model are applied to solve incompr…
We propose a novel approach for learning node representations in directed graphs, which maintains separate views or embedding spaces for the two distinct node roles induced by the directionality of the edges. We argue that the previous approaches either fail to encode the edge directionality or their encodings cannot b…
Dead-Direction Signatures (DDS) provide a cheap, closed-form spectral reading of a network's singular complexity.
problem Estimating the complexity of deep networks through their loss singularities.
method DDS replaces the SGLD posterior chain with spectral linear algebra.
result DDS observables rank-track the network's singular complexity at the framework-predicted sign.
New method identifies whether equity return predictability is due to magnitude shrinkage or directional reversal.
problem Determining the nature of equity return predictability (directional reversal vs magnitude shrinkage).
method Developed the Fourier-Residue Identity (FRI) to decompose return autocorrelation into sign and magnitude channels.
result The lag-1 autocorrelation in SPY is driven entirely by magnitude shrinkage, not directional reversal.
We propose directed time series regression, a new approach to estimating parameters of time-series models for use in certainty equivalent model predictive control. The approach combines merits of least squares regression and empirical optimization. Through a computational study involving a stochastic version of a well …
We describe an exercise of using Big Data to predict the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a widely used indicator of the state of confidence in the US economy. We carry out the exercise from a pure ex ante perspective. We use the methodology of algorithmic text analysis of an archive of brokers' reports over the peri…
Thinking LLMs struggle with stock prediction, especially as data complexity increases.
problem Evaluating the performance of 'thinking' LLMs in stock prediction, especially under varying levels of cross-sectional complexity.
method Rolling 48m/1m walk-forward evaluation, comparing direct LLMs, TLLMs, and classical learners on cross-sectional ranking loss, MSE, and backtests with transaction costs.
result TLLMs' ranking quality deteriorates as cross-sectional complexity grows, while direct LLMs remain stable.
Autoregressive flow models can perform causal discovery and inference tasks.
problem Causal inference tasks such as causal discovery and interventional predictions.
method Using autoregressive flow models to estimate causal directions and make predictions.
result Autoregressive flows can accurately perform causal inference tasks without restrictive assumptions.
Graph embedding algorithms are used to efficiently represent (encode) a graph in a low-dimensional continuous vector space that preserves the most important properties of the graph. One aspect that is often overlooked is whether the graph is directed or not. Most studies ignore the directionality, so as to learn high-q…
We investigate whether the bid/ask queue imbalance in a limit order book (LOB) provides significant predictive power for the direction of the next mid-price movement. We consider this question both in the context of a simple binary classifier, which seeks to predict the direction of the next mid-price movement, and a p…
Deep learning predicts fluid flow in porous media, accelerating simulations by orders of magnitude.
problem Accurate simulation of fluid flow in complex porous media requires excessive computational resources.
method Combining deep learning with direct simulation, using Gated U-Net CNNs trained on datasets of 2D and 3D porous media.
result Deep learning predictions can reach over 90% accuracy for permeability estimation and accelerate simulations by orders of magnitude.
Unified framework predicts S&P500 index direction using transfer learning and causal graph.
problem Predicting the movement of financial indices like S&P500.
method Transfer learning, causal graph, multidisciplinary knowledge, VAE network.
result 74.3% accuracy, 67% F1-score, 0.42 Matthew correlation on 12 years test period.
MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
problem MFVI underestimates posterior variance
method Analyzing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression
result MFVI can overestimate predictive variance compared to the exact posterior
Equity-Directed Bootstrapping improves model performance across groups in imbalanced datasets.
problem Improving model performance across different groups in imbalanced datasets.
method Equity-Directed Bootstrapping to balance training data with respect to both labels and group identity.
result The equity-directed bootstrap brings test set sensitivities and specificities closer to satisfying the equal odds criterion.