Improved model predicts wildfire spread on slopes.
problem Accurate prediction of wildfire spread on slopes.
method Combines Rothermel model, Huygens' principle, and advanced techniques.
result More precise model of wildfire propagation.
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45 results for “wildfire”
Deep learning model predicts wildfire spread in Australia.
problem Predicting the full distribution of wildfire spread in Australia.
method Graph convolutional neural networks and extended generalized Pareto distribution.
result Efficacy of the model demonstrated through hazard assessment.
Study identifies key drivers and spatio-temporal trends of extreme Mediterranean wildfires.
problem Understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on wildfire activity.
method Statistical deep-learning model combining meteorological, land cover, and orographic data.
result Vapour-pressure deficit significantly affects wildfire occurrence, while air temperature and drought affect spread.
Paper compares GRU and LSTM for predicting wildfire spread direction.
problem Predicting wildfire spread direction with limited data.
method Comparison of Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks.
result GRU performs better for longer time series than LSTM.
Artificial intelligence has been applied in wildfire science and management since the 1990s, with early applications including neural networks and expert systems. Since then the field has rapidly progressed congruently with the wide adoption of machine learning (ML) in the environmental sciences. Here, we present a sco…
Modeling wildfire spread using Gielis superformula and Finsler spacetime.
problem Accurately modeling the short-time spread of wildfires.
method Using Gielis superformula and Finsler spacetime to determine firefronts.
result A concise and efficient expression of geodesic equations.
Paper proposes decision-theoretic approach to combat wildfires.
problem Complexity and uncertainty in wildfire management.
method Partially-observable Markov decision process and data-driven model.
result Forecasting model accurately models wildfire spread.
Paper proposes model to assess financial risk of grid-ignited wildfires.
problem Financial risk and solvency threats from grid-ignited wildfires.
method Integrated model to evaluate damage costs and risk levels.
result Identifies high-risk areas for preemptive actions.
Modeling wildfire aerosols using satellite data to predict solar radiation reduction.
problem Accurately estimate and predict AOD propagation from wildfires using multi-source satellite data.
method Physics-informed statistical modeling integrating multi-source satellite data with an advection-diffusion equation.
result The proposed approach accurately predicts AOD propagation and demonstrates model interpretability.
Machine learning helps predict smoke types for safer forest burns.
problem Determining which fuels to burn safely to reduce wildfire risk and minimize smoke.
method Machine learning techniques like spectral clustering and manifold learning.
result Interpretable representations and tools for differentiating smoke types.
Custom loss functions improve accuracy of wildfire rate of spread forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy of wildfire rate of spread forecasts.
method Examined custom loss functions in machine learning models of fuel moisture content.
result Custom loss functions improved accuracy of ROS forecasts by a small amount.
Study creates open-access wildfire dataset for Russia.
problem Data scarcity for comprehensive Eurasian wildfire research.
method Machine learning for exploratory data analysis and predictive modeling.
result Identified key environmental factors influencing fire behavior.
Deep model predicts wildfire data in incomplete regions.
problem Predicting distributions of wildfire frequency and size in missing data regions.
method Conditional Missing data Importance-Weighted Autoencoder (CMIWAE) model trained on incomplete data.
result Maximizes log-likelihood of observed wildfire information.
A Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares Filter for Real-time UAV Terrain Followingeess.SP
Improved real-time UAV terrain following with RVM-RLS filter.
problem Accurate real-time waypoints estimation under measurement noise in nonlinear, time-varying systems.
method Residual Variance Matching Recursive Least Squares (RVM-RLS) filter guided by RVME criterion.
result Improved waypoints estimation accuracy by approximately 88% compared to benchmarks.
A new model predicts wildfire spread with wind and slope effects.
problem Predicting wildfire spread with wind and slope effects.
method Geometric model based on Lorentz-Finsler framework, considering wind and slope.
result Infinitesimal wavefronts are no longer restricted to be elliptical, allowing for more accurate predictions.
Efficient algorithms for large Maxent models improve wildfire probability predictions.
problem Training large-scale, non-smooth Maxent models efficiently for big data.
method First-order optimization algorithms using Kullback-Leibler divergence.
result Our algorithms outperform state-of-the-art methods by one order of magnitude.
Pyrocast predicts pyrocumulonimbus clouds six hours before they form.
problem Predicting pyrocumulonimbus clouds to adapt to climate change.
method Database of 148 pyroCb events, Random Forests, CNNs, and Auto-Encoders.
result Best model predicts pyroCb with 90% accuracy.
New method uses neural networks to predict extreme wildfires, improving accuracy over traditional models.
problem Predicting extreme wildfires using complex, non-linear relationships.
method Partially-interpretable neural networks for extreme quantile regression.
result Significant improvement in predictive performance over traditional methods.
New analysis identifies key factors in wildfire-generated thunderstorms.
problem Understanding the causes of pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) storms.
method Invariant Causal Prediction, conditional independence test, greedy-ICP search algorithm.
result Identified seven causal predictors for pyroCb formation.
Managers of US National Forests must decide what policy to apply for dealing with lightning-caused wildfires. Conflicts among stakeholders (e.g., timber companies, home owners, and wildlife biologists) have often led to spirited political debates and even violent eco-terrorism. One way to transform these conflicts into…
Time-warping improves RNN transfer learning for diverse time scales.
problem Transfer learning for RNNs with varying time scales.
method Time-warping rescales time in LSTM models for better transfer.
result Time-warping maintains accuracy in transferring RNNs between different time scales.
AI system narrows human decision options for better outcomes.
problem Improving human decision-making in sequential tasks.
method Developed a decision support system using a pre-trained AI agent to limit human action choices.
result Participants outperformed AI and solo play in a wildfire mitigation game.
New method estimates GGLM parameters, overcoming non-convexity.
problem Estimating parameters in GGLM with dependencies.
method Monotone operator-based variational inequality method.
result Guarantees for parameter recovery in GLM and GGLM.
Geospatial framework assesses climate risks for California's banking and exposed sectors.
problem Evaluating climate risks on banking and exposed sectors in California.
method Integrates hazard mapping, exposure analysis, and scenario-based financial risk assessment.
result Framework supports portfolio monitoring and institutional readiness under new standards.
Policy analysts wish to visualize a range of policies for large simulator-defined Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). One visualization approach is to invoke the simulator to generate on-policy trajectories and then visualize those trajectories. When the simulator is expensive, this is not practical, and some method is r…
Efficiently infers coupled hidden Markov models with noisy discrete observations.
problem Intractable inference for coupled continuous-time Markov chains with discrete observations.
method Latent Interacting Particle Systems, look-ahead functions, twisted Sequential Monte Carlo sampling.
result Demonstrated effectiveness on latent SIRS model and wildfire spread dynamics.
Algorithm balances learning and coverage for multi-robots over unknown fields.
problem Balancing learning and coverage for multi-robots over unknown, nonuniform sensory fields.
method DSLC algorithm that schedules learning and coverage epochs, using Gaussian Process modeling and coverage regret analysis.
result Upper bound on expected cumulative coverage regret provided for DSLC.
Wave propagation framework using cone structures and observers' vector fields.
problem Describing classic wave propagation in anisotropic media.
method Introduces a cone structure and an observers' vector field to describe wave propagation.
result Reduces the PDE for wavefronts to ODE for cone geodesics of .
A Natural Disasters Indexq-fin.RM
NDI aims to forecast future natural disasters risk for insurers.
problem Increasing intensity and frequency of natural disasters.
method Develops a Natural Disasters Index (NDI) based on NOAA data.
result NDI forecasts future natural disasters risk for insurers.
ABC method improves subseasonal weather forecasting by 60-90%.
problem Improving subseasonal temperature and precipitation forecasting accuracy.
method Combines dynamical forecasts with machine learning-based bias correction.
result Significant improvement in temperature and precipitation forecasting skills.
Though machine learning has achieved notable success in modeling sequential and spatial data for speech recognition and in computer vision, applications to remote sensing and climate science problems are seldom considered. In this paper, we demonstrate techniques from unsupervised learning of future video frame predict…
We define systems of pre-extremals for the energy functional of regular rheonomic Lagrange manifolds and show how they induce well-defined Hamilton orthogonal nets. Such nets have applications in the modelling of e.g. wildfire spread under time- and space-dependent conditions. The time function inherited from such a Ha…
Graph Attention Networks predict power outage durations from natural disasters.
problem Accurately predicting power outage durations from geospatial and weather data.
method Graph Attention Networks (GAT) for semi-supervised learning.
result GAT model outperforms existing methods by 2% - 15% in accuracy.
Efficiently estimates GEV distribution parameters using neural networks.
problem Computational intensity of maximum likelihood estimation for GEV distribution.
method Neural network-based likelihood-free estimation method.
result Comparable accuracy to maximum likelihood method with significant speedup.
Event Detection in Noisy Streaming Data with Combination of Corroborative and Probabilistic Sourcescs.LG
Global physical event detection has traditionally relied on dense coverage of physical sensors around the world; while this is an expensive undertaking, there have not been alternatives until recently. The ubiquity of social networks and human sensors in the field provides a tremendous amount of real-time, live data ab…
Paper introduces kernel methods for detecting anomalous changes in remote sensing imagery.
problem Detecting anomalous changes in remote sensing imagery.
method Nonlinear extension of Gaussian and elliptically contoured distribution algorithms using reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
result Improved detection accuracy and reduced false-alarm rates compared to linear formulations.
New methods for scalable causal discovery from complex data.
problem Learning causal structures from nonlinear, continuous or mixed data.
method BF-BIC score and BF-LRT test for scalable causal discovery.
result BF-BIC score and BF-LRT test enable scalable causal discovery with competitive accuracy and runtime.
Event detection has long been the domain of physical sensors operating in a static dataset assumption. The prevalence of social media and web access has led to the emergence of social, or human sensors who report on events globally. This warrants development of event detectors that can take advantage of the truly dense…
New method predicts positive samples with missing labels.
problem Missing labels due to response-dependent factors.
method P(U)U-O-Mixture algorithm for joint estimation.
result Non-convex algorithm leads to optimal statistical error.
This paper studies the problem of spectrum shortage in an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) network during critical missions such as wildfire monitoring, search and rescue, and disaster monitoring. Such applications involve a high demand for high-throughput data transmissions such as real-time video-, image-, and voice- st…
Unified geometry for relativity and beyond.
problem Unified geometric framework for relativity and beyond.
method Unified Lorentz-Finsler geometry.
result Unified framework for relativity and beyond.
New method reconstructs past foehn occurrences using unsupervised and supervised learning.
problem Reconstructing past foehn occurrences due to lack of direct measurement.
method Combining unsupervised and supervised learning methods to infer foehn occurrences from reanalysis data.
result Accurate hourly reconstructions of past foehn occurrences for 83 years.
Modeling complex systems with multi-resolution data and causal dependencies.
problem Accurate prediction of complex systems with varying causal dependencies and multi-resolution data.
method Score-based Variational Graphical Diffusion Model (Temporal-SVGDM) that constructs individual SDEs for each variable at its native resolution and couples them through a causal score mechanism.
result Improved prediction accuracy and causal understanding compared to existing methods, especially in temporal scenarios.
PBC improves AI and dynamical subseasonal forecasts by reducing biases.
problem Subseasonal forecast accuracy drops due to model biases and compounding errors.
method Probabilistic bias correction (PBC) using machine learning to correct historical forecasts.
result PBC doubles AI Forecasting System's subseasonal skill and improves dynamical model skill.
Study values and optimizes forestry leases under risk and uncertainty.
problem Valuing and optimizing forestry leases in the presence of catastrophe risk and parameter uncertainty.
method Stochastic bio-economic models, Kalman filter, maximum likelihood estimation, RBSDEs, Monte Carlo simulations.
result Conservative strategy is recommended due to parameter uncertainty.